

Jon Taplin says the big ticket prognosticators are underestimating Barack Obama.
--Josh Marshall
Obama rolls out fully Boehnerized new stump speech. Did I mention Boehner.
--Josh Marshall
Shorter Sarah Palin: We must all refrain from provocative acts. Like burning Korans or being Muslim.
--Josh Marshall
Just as there's honor among thieves, there are small differences of opinion among wild-eyed loons. Our Jillian Rayfield looks at the hatingest of the mosque and Muslim haters who are now unloading on the Koran burners.
--Josh Marshall
Just a quick heads up that starting next week we're going to be bringing you the most up-to-date and comprehensive polling information from the previous 24 hours every morning in our DayBreaker email -- along with our editors' take on the five most important polls of the last 24 hours. More details to come. But sign up below if you don't already receive Day Breaker.
[ed.note: TPM Media does not ever sell, lease or share users' email addresses. Ever.]
--Josh Marshall
Here's a chart from BP's internal report on the eight "critical factors" that contributed to the blowout and destruction of the Deepwater Horizon:
--David Kurtz
Following up on the Orszag post below, here's John Boehner's translation of Orszag's massive budgetary boner.
Just out from the orangeman ...
"If the president is serious about finally focusing on jobs, a good start would be taking the advice of his recently departed budget director and freezing all tax rates, coupled with cutting federal spending to where it was before all the bailouts, government takeovers, and 'stimulus' spending sprees."
So Orszag's self-compromise is now an endorsement of Republican policy, which Boehner now uses to attack the president. Who could have predicted ...
On the second point, on first blush, it seems like Boehner is just doing a mixing of confusion references and lying. But the first part is accurate.
--Josh Marshall
I didn't want to let any more time go by without noting Peter Orszag's exceedingly lame debut oped in the New York Times yesterday. The takeaway that most took away was: extend ALL the Bush tax cuts for two years. Not just the ones for lower and middle income Americans which could play a significant stimulative role (or the absence of which could further depress demand) but the high income ones too, even though there's not a lot of good stimulative argument for doing so. Orszag knows numbers and I don't. So I'm not disagreeing with the economic argument. But look what Orszag actually says.
He says quite clearly that extending all but the upper income tax cuts is the best way to go. But then he writes it off saying that Republicans might not agree to that so, whatever, just do the whole thing. In other words, take a political fight in which the Democrats have the economic argument on their side and in which they most likely have the political argument on their side too and instead of contesting that ground -- just concede the whole argument in advance and start the debate on the basis of the Republicans' maximal position.
Whatever the economic models say, that's painfully naive as a matter of politics. And politics is not some meaningless froth hovering over the reality of policy. It's inextricable from it.
Late Update: Greg gets Orszag to sorta kinda half not really walk it back. Boehner take note!
--Josh Marshall
It turns that a big chunk of the Stimulus spending hasn't even hit the economy yet. Check out this chart.
--Josh Marshall
This should be referred to as the M&Ms election. It's all about Muslims and Mexicans. We talked with some prominent academics about what is fueling the current Islamophobia in particular. Rachel Slajda reports that it's all about the "Other."
--David Kurtz
The latest stimulus proposals from President Obama contain almost nothing but the sort of pro-business goodies Republicans have pushed for for years but, as Brian Beutler reports, you wouldn't know that from how Republicans are reacting to it.
--David Kurtz
The full text of Obama's speech underway right now in Cleveland.
--David Kurtz
Good times as ABC's Jonathan Karl presses Nevada GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle on her statement that big government is a violation of the First Commandment because it substitutes government for god:
I said that? No I didn't say that. Actually, that was a discussion I was having with CBN. We were talking in very Christian terms. That's what Christian broadcast is -- that's their focus -- so you speak the language of the folks that you're communicating with. And I was speaking in their language. And the language that I used was that in our country, we have become a country that has put our faith, not 'in God we trust,' which is on our money -- as you know.
Just speaking their language.
--David Kurtz
We just received a press release from the Washington National Cathedral announcing that Rahm Emanuel and his Bush-era counterpart Joshua Bolten will appear together next month for a panel titled "Governing Across The Divide," to be moderated by CBS' Bob Schieffer.
Hand-wringing about the purported collapse of the center in American politics is a cottage industry in Washington so no surprise here. But inviting Rahm to a panel on "how civility and cooperation might return to the discourse," as the press release puts it? What's next in the cathedral's line-up: Richard Daley on "Good Government in The Big City"?
Ed. Note: "Governing Across The Divide" is apparently not a reference to the Anglican schism over homosexuality.
--David Kurtz
In his comments on the Koran-burning festival in Florida, John Boehner said it's equivalent to the plans to build a Islamic Community Center in Lower Manhattan. But are legal; but both unwise.
--Josh Marshall
Scooter Libby breaks his self-imposed silence with an exclusive appearance on ... Fox News' O'Reilly Factor.
--David Kurtz
We're cataloguing a slew of generally anti-mosque folks who are today coming out against that nutso church's plan to hold a Koran-burning festival on 9/11. So far today, Haley Barbour says it's not a "good idea." John Boehner says it's "unwise." And now honorary Republican Joe Lieberman says the church should "reconsider and drop their plans."
--Josh Marshall
In response to my post last night a number of readers have written to say that I've either written off the November election or claimed that the Dems are collapsing in advance of it. Neither is the case. My point was only that if you project out to November the current facts on the ground, the House is probably headed for Republican control and the Senate could flip too, though it's much less likely. Could things change? Of course they could. I'll get to that in a minute.
--Josh Marshall
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