We all remember that Hillary was nearly 10 points down in most NH Primary Polls the day before the voting - but that she CRIED during an interview that evening - and came back to narrowly defeat Obama in the actual voting!

He must be. After all, he crossed party lines to endorse the candidate OF HIS OWN RACE.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/15/1549807.aspx Nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters across the state are under the age of 25. Trends show that, regardless of age, females represent the majority of new registered voters.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/colin-powell-is-ready-to_b_134777.html

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6017487&page=1

Powered chiefly by the public's economic concerns, Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936."

Enjoy!!!!!!

Thanks to Steve Benen over at the Washington Monthly for digging out this historical kernel of irony:

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_10/015130.php


Apparently McCain and Palin represent a first in American political history! And not in a good way!

To all my fellow Barack Hussein Obama fans out there - a word of warning and Caution as we enter the final 3+ weeks of the campaign - Obama has PEAKED in all election barometers now - and you must NOT lose heart if some of those barometers tighten somewhat in the weeks ahead.
We all need to face these truths:
1. McCain has a predetermined and almost inviolate ELECTORAL VOTE COUNT that he will receive no matter what happens (short of incipient drooling or nuclear war). That EV total is approximately 162 Votes. Unless something completely off-the-charts bad happens, McCain is going to win those votes. So stop talking about a 375+ EV landslide. Isn;t gonna happen.
2. 39-40% of the population is going to vote for McCain (just as they would vote for a pile of dog crap if it had 'Republican" attached to it. this also is unlikely ever to change. 
3. 5-10% of voters are NEVER Going to vote for a Black man - or a Muslim (to cover those who are terminally ignorant of Obama's religious background). Get used to that. Accept it. It is a part of life.
So - with Obama now at the ceiling in almost every metric of this campaign, there is no place to go but down. Not that I think he will (at least not by very much) - but please do NOT get all apocalyptic if his numbers do not statistically improve in the days ahead (even given his win in the debate last night).
Relish the coming victory - but please do NOT ask for too much - and do not expend needless emotional energy when the race takes the only conceivable direction it can take - a slight tightening as the end approaches.

Joe Biden has cancelled all his weekend appearances in the last hour - apparently to be with his wife jill as they face the probably loss of jill's mother.
The hospice in which she has been staying has apparently told the family to be on 'alert' for the next few days - an almost certain indication that Joe's mother-in-law faces imminent death.
My heart goes out to Joe and his family in this time of sadness and personal loss.

CBS Poll: 65% of registered voters will watch VP Debate07:02 | 02/10/2008Jeff Glor, National Correspondent
CBS This Morning

In a package laying out  why this Vice Presidential debate might have impact on the Presidential race, CBS' Jeff Glor released a new poll showing that it might. Sixty Five percent of registered voters asked in the survey said that they would "very likely" watch the Vice Presidential debate. 

Will you watch the Vice Presidential Debate? 

Very likely:         65%
Somewhat likely 31%
Not likely           12%

(margin of error +/- 3pts)


So - since there are now approximately 150 million registered voters, does CBS REALLY THINK that over 115 MILLION (Counting 65% of 150 million plus 15% of the 'somewhat likely' fence-sitters) people are going to watch tonight's VP debate (when barely over 50 MILLION watched the first PRESIDENTIAL debate)??
Are they REALLY that naive?

We have spent the last 8 years with an administration headed buy a guy that 'we could feel comfortable having a beer with."

And look what the result has been.

He is trailing badly in nearly every poll...
The debate was about his supposed STRING SUIT (Foreign Affairs)........
The debate could render his campaign some needed assistance in his polling numbers........
So WHY would he want to postpone the debate?
The only answer I can come up with is that he hopes to push the debate on Foreign Affairs CLOSER to the end of the debate cycle (perhaps rescheduling it for AFTER the Domestic Policy debate) in order to time the supposed 'bump' he would get form it to a time period closer to November 4.
Anyone else have any reasonable explanation for this stance? 

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Nate's article details some VERY suspicious activity in the trading patterns recently at INTRADE - patterns that reflect deliberate manipulation of trade to deflate Obama's win percentages.
Worth a read......

All he needs is 269 - and the current EV maps seem to almost guarantee this:
Almost certain OBAMA states:
ME, VY, MASS, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, MICH, ILL, WI, MN, IA, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI =269 Electoral Votes.
This leaves only the need to win ONE of (or from) the following BATTLEGROUND states:
Nh (even only 1 of its split votes does it), OH, WVA, VA, NC, FL, NEB (1 of its split votes does it), or NV.
In shot, McCain has to win EVERY SINGLE BATTLEGROUND LISTED (and he is currently behind in several(
In short - Obama merely needs his VERY currently strong 269 to win - while McCain needs a miracle sweep of ALL the battlegrounds listed to even tie things up at 269 - and lose in the HOR.
So cheer up people.

September 19, 2008,  7:24 pmMcCain on banking and health

OK, a correspondent directs me to John McCain’s article, Better Health Care at Lower Cost for Every American, in the Sept./Oct. issue ofContingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. You might want to be seated before reading this.

Here’s what McCain has to say about the wonders of market-based health reform:

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/19/mccain-on-banking-and-health/

in CA, WA, OH........
IN fact, she has canceled ALL fundraising events next week......
Anyone sense something may be going on behind the scenes here?