Kevin Drum explains in a terrific post this afternoon that Iraq hawks have entered their third and least-persuasive stage.

First, there were War Hawks, who insisted that invading Iraq was a necessary endeavor. Second, these folks became Pottery Barn Hawks, who insisted they could clean up the mess they created.

And now they've transformed again, into Chaos Hawks, who insist that a withdrawal strategy would be even worse than the status quo.

Having admitted, however, that the odds of a military success in Iraq are almost impossibly long, Chaos Hawks nonetheless insist that the U.S. military needs to stay in Iraq for the foreseeable future. Why? Because if we leave the entire Middle East will become a bloodbath. Sunni and Shiite will engage in mutual genocide, oil fields will go up in flames, fundamentalist parties will take over, and al-Qaeda will have a safe haven bigger than the entire continent of Europe.

Needless to say, this is nonsense. Israel has fought war after war in the Middle East. Result: no regional conflagration. Iran and Iraq fought one of the bloodiest wars of the second half the 20th century. Result: no regional conflagration. The Soviets fought in Afghanistan and then withdrew. No regional conflagration. The U.S. fought the Gulf War and then left. No regional conflagration. Algeria fought an internal civil war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

Read the whole thing.