With little debate over the fact that there's been no progress in Iraq on political reconciliation, debate is centering on whether there's been improvement in purely military terms -- whether the 'surge' has resulted in reduced civilian deaths. Yet the debate has been confused -- in many cases intentionally so -- by a welter of incomplete statistics and apples to oranges comparisons that don't give us any real ability to understand the trends on the ground in Iraq.

Over the last several days, however, TPMmuckraker.com's Spencer Ackerman has done some good old-fashioned shoe-leather reporting to come up with what we believe are the only solid numbers available.

Both counts -- one from the Associated Press and another from Iraq Body Count -- follow very different methodologies. And each of them have particular strengths and shortcomings. What sets this data apart, however, is that each organization has used a consistent methodology going back to the beginning of 2006. That means that when you look at June 2006 vs. June 2007, or Jan 2007 vs. August 2007, you're actually making an apples to apples comparison. And that's key to get a real sense of the trends are in the country.

The thumbnail verdict? The death rate among Iraqi civilians is either stable or actually rising. But the details are key. Go take a look.