We note over at Election Central that Ron Paul got booed in last night's debate for calling for a pull-out from Iraq, something that had not happened in previous Republican debates, notwithstanding the relative unpopularity of his views among the Republican faithful.

Far more interesting, but pointing to the same reality is this article in this morning's LA Times. Democrats have gotten tons of criticism, at least some of it deserved, for not making more progress in forcing a legislative end or deescalation of the war. But the underlying reality is a fairly simple one: virtually no Republican legislators will buckle under and support their efforts. And this article explains why. Several of those GOP stragglers have already drawn serious and well-funded primary challengers. And others will likely get them in the coming months.

This highlights a key point: in a highly polarized electorate, the issue isn't really aggregate public opinion. It's the percentage of the 51% of the folks who get you elected. If 50% of them (25% of the electorate) say they want you out, you're toast. And that would appear to be what a lot of these folks are facing.

It reminds me a lot of the situation during the impeachment crisis in '98-99. I was reporting on it at the time for the American Prospect and Salon.com. So I watched the dynamic pretty close up. And it was very, very similar -- even, perhaps, especially in the ways the numbers lined up. I went into the story with visions of Tom Delay as The Hammer, crucifying Republican moderates to push them to vote for the impeachment most of them obviously didn't have much stomach for. But the truth of it was a little different. He didn't need to break a lot of arms. It was actually a pretty calm and straightforward presentation -- focused largely on polls. Sure, most of the country was against impeachment. But for the core of people who got these reps and senators elected every two or six years, it was an absolute live or die issue. Go against them on this issue and the breach with a lot of these voters would never be repaired.

The flip side of the argument was that by November 2000 most people who opposed impeachment would have moved on to other issues. And the folks for whom it was a live or die issue on the other side were never going to vote for these Republicans anyway.

It was a convincing argument for virtually any Republican in Congress. And in terms of the predicted fade of interest in impeachment among middle of the road voters, it was on the mark.

The difference here, of course, is that I very much doubt Iraq is going to be a fading issue by November 2008. And even among independents, support for the war barely gets out of the teens. So a lot of these folks are looking at pretty bleak encounters with the electorate in a little over twelve months.