Well, a Happy New Year to all. I take it that I am enjoying what is the traditional New Year's Eve celebration of new fathers who are soon to be fathers a second time -- which is to say, sitting at home at my desk, with a solitary lamp, as the rest of my family is fast asleep. And only a half hour into the new year.

So as long as I'm here and you're here. Let's quickly discuss the latest political tidbit.

The Iowa polls have been all over the place over the last week. But the two visible trends have been Hillary's solidifying lead and late surge for John Edwards.

So it comes as some surprise that the final pre-Caucus Des Moines Register poll shows Barack Obama opening a real lead over Edwards and Hillary -- Obama (32%), Clinton (25%) and Edwards (24%). This is just one poll. And with about 20% of the caucus electorate either undecided or supporting candidates that won't make the 'viability threshold', even if these numbers above were precisely accurate -- in terms of the individual support of the folks who are going to show for caucus night -- any of the three could still come out the winner.

But as Kos explains here, the DMR poll has a pretty good track record. And as Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal shows us here, the DMR poll is the most respected Iowa poll among professional pollsters.

The best, I think, you can say about this is to pick your cliche, to the effect that it's anyone's game out there. But at a minimum this should be enough to give Obama's folks confidence going into caucus night that they're as in this as they've ever been.