The results are in! We have election predictions from Kenny Baer, Michael Barone, Peter Beinart, David Brooks, Mark Cunningham, Robert George, Paul Glastris, Robert Reich, Russ Smith, Andrew Sullivan and Michael Tomasky. Enjoy. And remember, you can still send in your entry to the TPM election prediction contest until 9 PM EST this evening.




Kenny Baer, Super-Connected, Uber-New Dem

AR -- Pryor.

MN -- I'll go out on a limb, and call it for Coleman. The GOP learned its
lesson from 2000, and has played this masterfully. This race is a real dead
heat, and I'll predict that Mondale's debate performance will remind
everyone why he was no match for Reagan on TV. It'll be tight, but Coleman
is an attractive alternative. Coleman wins. And Humphreyism is dead.

SC -- I still think Sanders can do it. THeir internals have it close. BUt
if pushed, I'll give it to Graham. Graham.

CO -- I love Zogby's recent numbers. Strickland is the real deal, and CO
now has to be considered real battleground territory. Strickland by 2.

MO -- Appointed Senators never win re-election, and Jean Carnahan is no
exception. The numbers are tightening, but Talent wins.

SD -- I thought that this state was lost. But my prairie upset is in MN.
So I'll say that South Dakotans want Daschle in charge. Johnson holds on.

GA -- Cleland holds on. Barnes at the top of the ticket helps enormously.

NH -- Shaheen has run a masterful race. Shaheen.

TN -- It would take years to mend all the fences to elect a Dem to the
Senate in TN. Lamar!

IA -- Harkin. But watch Jim Leach lose.

NJ -- That scream you hear is Bob Torricelli yelling at the tv screen as
his arch-enemy Frank Lautenberg takes his Senate seat.

TX -- In the end of the day, Cornyn wins.

LA -- Landrieu does not make it to 50, and loses in the run-off.

NC -- The Bowles surge is not enough. Liddy Dole wins.

By the time they count and litigate all the votes from LA's run-off, the
Senate stays at the current make-up, 50-49-1. Daschle then resigns as
majority leader and announces his exploratory committee...

[Late Word ... Baer called TPM world HQ six minutes before the 5PM posting deadline and flipped his picks for Minnesota and South Dakota.]

Michael Barone, US News

Here are my predictions.

Arkansas: Pryor (D)

Minnesota: Coleman (R)

South Carolina: Graham (R)

Colorado: Allard (R)

Missouri: Talent (R)

South Dakota: Thune (R) (but who really knows?)

Georgia: Cleland (D)

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) (I've switched back and forth on this one)

Tennessee: Alexander (R)

Iowa: Harkin (D)

New Jersey: Lautenberg (D)

Texas: Cornyn (R)

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) ahead, but fails to get 50%

North Carolina: Dole (R)

Turnovers are Arkansas, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, so that would
leave the Senate 51 Repubs, 49 Demos (including Jeffords).
Somehow I suspect that one of the Republican turnovers I predicted
won't happen--South Dakota to me is the iffiest, though of course
who knows about Minnesota.

Peter Beinart, The New Republic

Arkansas-Pryor

Georgia--Cleland

Iowa--Harkin

Minnesota--Mondale

Missouri-Talent

South Carolina-Graham

Colorado--Strickland

South Dakota--Johnson

New Hampshire--Shaheen

Tennessee--Alexander

Texas--Cornyn

North Carolina--Dole

Lousiana--Landrieu under50%

New Jersey--Lautenberg

Dems plus 1 or 2 pending Landrieu runoff

David Brooks, The Weekly Standard

The Senate will be 51-49 Republicans, putting Jeffords in the Dem column.
That means the Democrats are going to win in Arkansas, Colorado, South
Dakota, Iowa, New Jersey and New Hampshire.
The Republicans are going to win South Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota,
Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and North Carolina.
Louisiana will take another three weeks, but in the end Landreau will lose
in what will become a national race in one state.

Mark Cunningham, New York Post

This works out to no net change, I think. But I'll make my master prediction
Dems +1. But Mo. wildcard confirms a bunch of judges ...

Arkansas -- Dem

Minnesota -- GOP

South Carolina -- GOP

Colorado -- Dem

Missouri -- GOP

South Dakota -- GOP

Georgia -- GOP

New Hampshire -- Dem

Tennessee -- GOP

Iowa -- Dem

New Jersey -- Dem

Texas -- GOP

Louisiana -- Dem, after the runoff

North Carolina -- why won't they make that woman STOP? Republican

Robert George, New York Post

Dems 53*

GOP 46

Ind 1

Arkansas -- Pryor 53, Hutchinson 47

Minnesota -- Mondale 50, Coleman 48

South Carolina -- Graham 52, Sanders 48

Colorado -- Strickland 54, Allard 46

Missouri -- Carnahan 50.5, Talent 49.5

South Dakota -- Johnson 53, Thune 47

Georgia -- Chambliss 51, Cleland 49

New Hampshire -- Shaheen 51, Sununu 49

Tennessee -- Alexander 55, Clement 45

Iowa -- Harkin 54, Ganske 46

New Jersey -- Lautenberg 53 Forrester 45

Texas -- Kirk 50.5, Cornyn 49.5

Louisiana -- Landrieu 46, Terrell (23) -- runoff in December

North Carolina -- Dole 52, Bowles 48

*Dem net pick-up of three seats,pending the outcome of Louisiana -- though
I'm going out on a serious limb with Texas. Mama always told me I shouldn't
go near that Infamy Pool...

Paul Glastris, The Washington Monthly

Arkansas: Pryor beats Hutchinson D+

Minnesota: Mondale beats Coleman

South Carolina: Graham beats Sanders

Colorado: Strickland beats Allard D+

Missouri: Carnahan beats Talent

South Dakota: Johnson beats Thune

Georgia: Cleland beats Chambliss

Hew Hampshire: Shaheen beats Sununu D+

Tennessee: Alexander beats Clement

Iowa: Harkin whoops Ganske

New Jersey: Lautenberg toasts Forrester

Texas: Cornyn beats Kirk

Louisiana: Landrieu (eventually) beats Perkins

North Carolina: Dole beats Bowles

total Democratic gain: 3 seats

Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary & Massachusetts Gubernatorial Candidate

Arkansas: Pryor wins

Colorado: Allard wins.

Louisiana: Landrieu wins eventually, but not until December runoff.

Minnesota: Mondale wins.

South Dakota: John Thune wins.

Texas: Cornyn wins.

Georgia: Cleland.

North Carolina: Dole.

Missouri: Talent.

New Hampshire: Shaheen.

Tennessee: Alexander.

Iowa: Harkin.

Result: We don't know until December which party runs the Senate.

Russ Smith, New York Press

Final spread for Senate: 50 GOP, 49 DEM, 1 IND.

GOP picks up +1 in House

Dems net 5 in statehouses. KKT loses in MD, Romney wins MA. And upset is
Simon in CA. Otherwise, Midwest bloodbath for GOP.

In Senate: MN: Coleman by 1 pt.

AR: Hutchinson by 2 pts.

South Carolina: Graham by 6.

CO: Allard by 2.

South Dakota: Johnson by 3.

NH: Shaheen by 4.

TN: Lamar by 5.

MO: Talent by 2.

NJ: Lautenberg by 6.

GA: Cleland by 6.

TX: Cornyn by 4.

LA: Runoff.

Iowa: Harkin by 8.

NC: Dole by 0.5






Andrew Sullivan, Andrewsullivan.com

AR: Pryor D

MN: Coleman R

SC: Graham R

CO: Allard R

MO: Talent R

SD: Johnson D

GA: Chambliss R

TN: Alexander R

IA: Harkin D

TX: Cornyn R

LA: Landrieu (w/ runoff) D

NC: Bowles D

NH: Shaheen D

Michael Tomasky, New York Magazine

1. Ark., Pryor, +3. Housekeepergate shows Hutch desperation.

2. Minn., Mondale, +2.5. Or at least Rick Kahn better hope so!

3. So. Car., Graham, +5. But that's pretty close for South Carolina.

4. Col., Strickland, +3.5. On the wings of the Ideopolis.

5. Mo., Talent, +1.5. Unless they move East St. Louis to St. Louis tonight.

6. So. Dak., Johnson, +3. Because of TPM's great exposes, natch.

7. Ga., Cleland, +2. Roy Barnes's big margin in gov. race the diff.

8. N.H., Shaheen, +4. Like foliage, she's peaked well.

9. Tenn., Alexander, +6. So he finally wins something. Huzzah.

10. Iowa, Harkin, +5. Helped by Wellstone eulogy. Really.

11. New Jersey, Lautenberg, +9. Thanks to Fritz, now seems as if he's been in
for months.

12. Texas, Cornyn, +3. Although if polls are undersampling black vote...

13. La., Landrieu, 46. No five-oh, in other words, but run-off won't be
decisive and she'll win it.

14. No. Car., Dole, +1.5. But God how I'd love to say otherwise.

Dems pick up three, Reps pick up one, so new Senate, BCS:

Dems 52

Reps 47

Inds 1

BCS = Before Chafee Switches.