Chris Bowers has an advance read of the tea leaves in the primary election being held today to select the successor to Duke "felon" Cunningham in California's 50th congressional district. If Francine Busby, the Democrat in the race, can get over 50%, she's in. If not, she'll go up against the Republican who gets the most votes.

There's little doubt she'll get near 50%. Whether she gets over 50% is the question of the night.

Howard 'You say Istanbul, I say Baghdad, let's call the whole thing off' Kaloogian is in the race. But now he seems like a longshot. Also in the race is former Rep. Brian Bilbray, lobbyist and former Abramoff buddy. His idea for cracking down on lobbying is preventing the state of California from calling him a lobbyist. He has a decent shot at getting the chance to run against Busby in the run-off.

There's also a self-financing gazillionaire named Eric Roach in the race. He's the other contender to take on Busby in the run-off. But he doesn't seem to be as good a material for humor as Bilbray and Kaloogian, so you're on your own with him.

Chris has more details.