In the background here at TPM HQ we've been running the numbers to try to get a sense of what this is going to look like in terms of delegate counts on the Democratic side.

To be clear, there's a lot of estimating involved here and piecing together little fragments of information. But all that said, our very much in-progress spreadsheet, which assumes a decent margin for Clinton in California, has the two candidates almost exactly tied in delegates.

Doubt it will turn out exactly that way. But I think that's going to be the big story. For all the spin and nominal wins. It's a dead-heat where it really counts, in delegates.