I was pretty skeptical about those numbers showing Tom Ridge crushing Pat Toomey in the PA Republican senate primary. Not that I thought the numbers were wrong, per se, more that I was skeptical they'd hold up over time, as Toomey and his allies went to work on Ridge over the next year and a half. But with Ridge out, I have to assume that means Toomey's almost guaranteed the nomination. I'd heard talk about Gerlach getting in. But I doubt it. And if it's Toomey, that means that any half way reasonable Democrat is a strong favorite. Which means the pressure going to remain on Arlen Specter to at least make some pretense of being a Democrat.