TPM Reader BL checks in ...

One thing to add to your analysis. Before challenging Specter, Sestak should see if Tom Ridge is running as reported today in the Post. If Ridge Runs, Sestak should not challenge Specter. I do think he would have a good chance to beat Specter in a primary, but I doubt he could beat Ridge. It is a question as to whether Ridge would beat Toomey, but he probably would. Specter's name recognition and status with the center of the PA electorate would make him competitive with Ridge.

This really is the key question. And I'm very curious to hear from those who know more about Pennsylvania politics and right-wing politics to get their read on this. If Ridge is the Republican nominee that does change the calculus substantially. But can Ridge get the nomination?

If Pat Toomey were a character from the Iliad he'd carry the sobriquet 'Specterslayer'. And I think the issue for Republicans is that a non-trivial number of Toomey's supporters think he was a character in the Iliad. He's the darling of the right. Pennsylvania is a closed primary. And as we noted last week, Pennsylvania's primary electorate has gotten much more conservative in the last two years. After Toomey put in the work to get Specter to bolt, are registered Pennsylvania Republicans going to push him aside from the relatively moderate Ridge? And if they will, will Ridge have to move hard to the right to get the nomination, thus weakening himself in the general?

These aren't rhetorical questions. I'm curious to hear your views. I guess a lot of it depends on Toomey, whether he was serious about wanting to be in the senate or whether this was only about Specter. But speaking as an outsider, it just seems like national Republicans would have a difficult time prying this out of Toomey's hands.

Your thoughts?