This should all be taken with a big grain of salt at this point because the reporting is very chaotic and hard to confirm. But we’re starting to get some early reports suggesting that Mousavi may have had a very strong showing today. CNN’s Octavia Nasr picks up al Arabiya reporting that former President Khatami congratulating him for “winning the election,” though who knows whether that, if true, tells us the outcome or is mere theater in the context of a close race.
We’ll keep watching closely in this thread and see what more concrete we can find.
Late Update: There are unconfirmed but multiple reports that Mousavi is about to hold a news conference on the election. This seems like a classic ‘fog of war’ situation in which you have a chaotic situation, many contradictory reports and an added level of confusion tied to information bleeding across the language barrier in real time.
Later Update: CNN and Fox are now both reporting that the official state news agency is reporting a win for Ahmadinejad, which could mean we’re in for a bumpy ride since the Mousavi himself just announced that he believes he won.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.