Maybe not quite on the order of "I am not a crook" or "I did not have sexual relations with that woman," but this declaration from Gordon Brown is a measure of the depth of his political troubles: "I'm not arrogant, and I'm never complacent."

For those who haven't been following this lately, the immediate cause of Brown's government being on the brink of collapse is Labour's dreadful showing in local elections. But it took more than one event or series of events for Brown to find himself in such perilous political waters. Not least among them was the MP expense scandal that brought down the Speaker of the House of Commons.