As you know, Jon Corzine has had an awfully steep hill to climb for reelection this year in New Jersey. And the worst number for him is that nothing that has happened over the last few months has allowed him to make any real progress above 40% in the polls. And for an incumbent, that’s t-e-r-r-i-b-l-e.
But Chris Christie’s increasing unpopularity along with surging independent candidate Chris Daggett might make that enough to win.
The new Q poll out today has it Christie 43%, Corzine 39% and Daggett 12%.
Not great for Corzine, to put it mildly. But if Quinnipiac has the trend line right, when you figure in any Democrats inherent advantages in New Jersey, Corzine’s still in this race.
Another way to look at this is that all Christie, a pretty staunch conservative for the Northeast, has going for him is Corzine’s entrenched unpopularity. But Daggett seems to be functioning as an escape valve for a decent amount of that anti-Corzinism, letting a lot of the air out of Christie’s bubble, as it were, thus keeping the race somewhat in play.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.