The new Rasmussen poll has Dem candidate Martha Coakley with a 50% to 41% margin over Republican Scott Brown. Figure in that Massachusetts is a heavily Democratic state and that Rasmussen’s polls tend to have a slight GOP lean and you can probably figure she’s going to win on January 19th.
But in a low-turnout special election, you never know. And there’s little question that the most enthusiastic voters are leaning Republican in this cycle.
And here’s the thing to keep in mind. If Scott Brown were to pull off an upset that would end Health Care Reform, pulling Dems back to 59 seats and preventing final passage of the bill.
Not saying this is a likely scenario. But the stakes are staggering.
Late Update: Several point out that there would be one way to still pass Reform. If the House agreed to pass the identical bill the senate passed, with literally no changes whatsoever, then that could go to the president’s desk and be signed. I thought of this last night. But it was not clear to me whether there would be some parliamentary impediment to doing this. Does anyone know?
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.