It’s too early to say that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is in trouble in the Democratic primary. It’s probably even too early to say that trouble is brewing there (although trouble is definitely brewing for her in the general election). But Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who’s challenging Lincoln, has to like how the early indicators are reading: he’s out-fund-raising her, the polls in their race are tightening a bit, and recent polls of the general election show him doing slightly better against the Republican field than she is doing.

In early April of a volatile year, those three positive indicators don’t add up to Halter momentum, but the absence of any one of those three would probably be enough to write off his campaign. So this one bears close watching.

David Kurtz

David Kurtz is Managing Editor and Washington Bureau Chief of Talking Points Memo where he oversees the news operations of TPM and its sister sites.