It’s hard to look at these numbers for the congressional generic ballot and think anything but that the GOP is moving into a break out phase heading into November …
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Late Update: TPM Reader VF notes that some of this ‘break out’ may simply be that we’re now in the window of time before the election in which many pollsters are moving from ‘registered voters’ to ‘likely voters’, a screen that is much more likely to pick up the enthusiasm gap. So it’s probably true that at least some of the change is simply an artifact of the changeover in polling methodology, rather than a true trend. Having said that, that doesn’t make the picture any prettier for Democrats. It would just suggest that we’re only now getting a true picture of the spot they’re in.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.