Definitely take a moment to read our just-posted piece on early voting across the country. The story varies from state to state. But a pattern is emerging. Republicans are doing better than in 2008. But in a lot of cases not as well as the current wave election narrative would lead you to expect. Nevada is a good example of the pattern.
That could mean that the polls aren’t giving us a clear view of the electorate this year. It could also mean that Democrats built up such an effective early voting infrastructure in 2006 and 2008 that they’re still turning people out early in disproportionate numbers even if the total number of Democratic votes on election night are much smaller than those for the GOP. And of course we don’t know how people are voting. We just know the party registration of those who are voting. If a lot of these are people who registered as Democrats in 2006 and 2008 only to vote Republican 2010, then it wouldn’t necessarily mean anything. Still, in the last couple weeks of the campaign we’re inundated with hype and chatter with almost no real data to go on. And this is real data. These are votes, not predictions. So it’s a fascinating snapshot into an election that isn’t ten days away but has actually already started.
Definitely give it a read.
Josh Marshall is editor and publisher of TalkingPointsMemo.com.