It’s bad form to admit this since our job is to bring clarity but the truth is that the DADT repeal negotiations are pretty opaque — even to many staffers on the Hill. Here’s what we think we know: It appears at this point that a focus of repeal proponents is Susan Collins. She’s long been known to be a key senator in the debate, but securing her sign off on moving forward is now a critical step in avoiding a filibuster later tonight.

Beyond that what remains especially unclear is whether there are other roadblocks beyond Collins that may have to be resolved, too. It looks like a case where everyone understands DADT repeal is not going to happen without Collins — but that’s not the same as saying that it will for sure happen with her. Stay tuned.

David Kurtz

David Kurtz is Managing Editor and Washington Bureau Chief of Talking Points Memo where he oversees the news operations of TPM and its sister sites.