With all the back and forth in the polls and all the theorizing, sometimes it's good to go back and look at one of the electoral vote calculator maps. Here's CNN's. For everything I said below, if McCain can't win Pennsylvania (final polls), which none of the polls suggest he is likely to do, he's really up the creek. If he can't win Virginia (final polls), which is closer but still less than likely according to the polls, he's basically done.

Don't get me wrong. My point here is not to suggest that the election is in the bag. It's not. It's only to focus your attention on two states that may tell us the story early.

There are a lot of ways for Obama to win; that's the easiest and most likely.

Virginia starts reporting at 7pm, Pennsylvania at 8 pm.