12:41 AM ... Indiana and North Carolina are looking very promising. And Missouri is still possible.

12:56 AM ... Missouri looking like a tougher climb.

12:59 AM ... TPM Reader AL reports in from Missouri ...

I thought I would give you some insight on Missouri from a resident.

Right now, Missouri is looking like it is going to be REALLY close. I look to Sen. McCaskill's victory in 2004 for the size margin that we will be looking at. Obama seems likely to win.

Key counties in Missouri are going for Obama by bigger margins than they went for Kerry in 2004. Greene County, where Springfield is located, went for McCain 57-41 compared to Bush 62-37. Boone County, where Columbia is located, went for Bush 49.7-49.5. It has gone for Obama 55-43, indicating a large turnout from the University of Missouri. Another key county is St. Charles County, in the suburbs of St. Louis. It went for Bush 59-41. It has deflated for McCain to 54-45. So those results already in bode well for Obama, albeit narrowly.

The counties still out are the deciding factor in Missouri. St. Louis City and Jackson County (Kansas City) are both at around 90% in, and Obama is getting huge margins there. The big wild cards still out are suburbs. St. Louis County is 58-41 for Obama with 93% in. In 2004, it was 54-45 Kerry. And the biggest hope for McCain is Clay County, in suburban Kansas City. It has not reported any results yet, and there are roughly 100,000 votes up for grabs there. Bush won in 2004 by 53-46.

Basically, if you want to know if Missouri will go Obama, look at Clay County. If it is tied or if Obama leads, Obama will take Missouri. If McCain is leading, McCain will pull out the victory. I look for the final margin to be about 15,000 votes.