As we noted last night, Republican John Fleming apparently came from behind to defeat Paul Carmouche in which is a very Republican district, Louisiana's 4th. But the margin was only 356 votes out of more than 90k cast. And Carmouche is not conceding.

Follow up shows there's a pretty good reason why. The current totals do not include provisional ballots (which often heavily favor Democrats) or absentee ballots (which in the past often favored Republicans but now can cut either way). They'll both be counted on Tuesday.

Carmouche is also signaling he'll likely ask for a recount.

Who knows? But with some non-trivial number of votes left to be counted, a 356 margin can't be set in stone.