An awful lot of people (including reasonable people) have questioned whether the RNC's bimbo ad against Harold Ford in Tennessee was actually racist. Fine. Then take a look at this anti-Ford mailer being distributed in Tennessee by Common Sense Ohio, the same folks doing pushpolls for the GOP in numerous states. The headline reads: "Bob Corker and Harold Ford are separated by more than their school colors . . ."
Convinced?
--David Kurtz
Down to the wire for the Senate:
Two days before a bitterly fought midterm election, Democrats have moved into position to recapture the House and have laid siege to the Senate, setting the stage for a dramatic recasting of the power structure in Washington for President Bush's final two years in office, according to a Washington Post analysis of competitive races across the country.In the battle for the House, Democrats appear almost certain to pick up more than the 15 seats needed to regain the majority. Republicans virtually concede 10 seats, and a split of the 30 tossup races would add an additional 15 to the Democratic column.
The Senate poses a tougher challenge for Democrats, who need to gain six seats to take control of that chamber. A three-seat gain is almost assured, but they would have to find the other three seats from four states considered tossup races -- Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana.
No one ever thought the Senate would be a gimme for the Democrats, but so close.
--David Kurtz
A couple of comments on reader comments.
First, thanks to all of the readers who have sent in tips/reports on the campaign goings-on in their parts of the country. Some of what you report will be obviously newsworthy and may generate a post here at TPM or at our other sites. Other reports, standing alone, may not be worth a post, but when combined with other reader reports may reveal a particular tactic or highlight a new strategy in a particular district. My point is even if we don't post about your report or tip doesn't mean we aren't using it to inform our understanding of the electoral battlefield. In military jargon, you might say it improves our situational awareness. So keep them coming. We read everything you send.
Second, since I started my guest-hosting gig here at TPM a few months ago, I haven't gotten a chance to thank you for all your comments, tips, corrections, and general feedback. The TPM audience is an amazing thing to behold. As corny as that may sound, it's true. Writing for this audience is more intellectually challenging and rewarding than just about anything else I have ever undertaken. You are astoundingly well-informed, thoughtful, passionate, and appropriately skeptical, which has renewed my faith in my fellow citizens. The wonderful dynamic that Josh has created and nurtured here would not work without your contributions. So my sincere thanks for all your feedback. It gives us at least a shot at keeping the ball rolling here when Josh is away.
OK, back to the elections . . .
--David Kurtz
New Senate polls due out in the morning from Mason-Dixon for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC. Word is things are very, very tight--at best.
Mason-Dixon's Montana poll is already out, showing Sen. Conrad Burns and Jon Tester tied at 47% apiece. That's down from a 7-point lead for Tester in September and a 3-point lead in October.
Update: In VA, Webb at 46%, Allen at 45%.
--David Kurtz
Some things you just can't make up.
In a year in which Republicans are blasting immigrants and trying to exploit xenophobia for political gain, Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) is denouncing the phone bank calls made in support of his campaign by the NRCC because the live callers have such heavy Indian or Hispanic accents.
Souder complained that the only thing he could understand in one of the messages, which was left on his daughter's answering machine, was "Hayhurst," the name of his Democratic opponent.
The NRCC calls were supposed to attack Hayhurst as "bad on immigration" or as a proponent of higher taxes. Here's the immigration call script:
“The United States now is home to 11 million illegal immigrants, and the number grows every year. But instead of protecting our borders, congressional candidate Tom Hayhurst supports citizenship opportunities for illegal aliens.”
According to the Fort Wayne Journal-Gazette, Souder said "he was especially exasperated that a phone message about immigration was delivered by people with heavy accents."
Now, here's the kicker. Typically, the NRCC would use automated robocalls to deliver this kind of message. But because robocalls are illegal in Indiana and because the Indiana Attorney General has already successfully sued one GOP 527 group, the Economic Freedom Fund, to stop such calls, the NRCC is being forced to use live callers, a task which it has apparently outsourced.
Just too rich.
--David Kurtz
Who is to blame for Ted Haggard giving into the temptation for adulterous gay sex and meth? His wife, apparently.
Guys, do NOT try this at home: Come on, baby, give it up, or I'm going for the gay sex and crystal meth.
--David Kurtz
UVa law student Mike Stark had another run-in with the George Allen campaign Saturday and was led away in handcuffs by a local sheriff's deputy. The AP report makes it sound like Stark was set up.
--David Kurtz
Ted Haggard has been dismissed from his church for "sexually immoral conduct," according to a statement released by the church oversight board:
We, the Overseer Board of New Life Church, have concluded our deliberations concerning the moral failings of Pastor Ted Haggard. Our investigation and Pastor Haggard's public statements have proven without a doubt that he has committed sexually immoral conduct.The language of our church bylaws state that as Overseers we must decide in cases where the Senior Pastor has "demonstrated immoral conduct" whether we must "remove the pastor from his position or to discipline him in any way they deem necessary."
In consultation with leading evangelicals and experts familiar with the type of behavior Pastor Haggard has demonstrated, we have decided that the most positive and productive direction for our church is his dismissal and removal.
More from the Denver Post.
--David Kurtz
I'm a little late to the party, but YouTube is so cool.
Here are a couple of union guys having fun with a George Bush cut-out and the staff of Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA).
--David Kurtz
Here's a bit more on Ted Haggard, from a UK documentary by evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins.
Thanks to TPM Reader BS for the tip.
--David Kurtz
The difference between Republican and Democratic poll watchers in Montana:
Republicans are there to watch the voters and report back to headquarters with any possible irregularities, said state Republican Party Executive Director Chuck Denowh.Democrats, according to state party chief Jim Farrell, are there to watch the Republicans.
--David Kurtz
I'm afraid Richard Perle's Vanity Fair concession that had he known then what he knows now he would never have supported the Iraq War is going to grab the headlines.
But Perle hardly sounds chastened by the disaster, pointing fingers this way and that:
Huge mistakes were made, and I want to be very clear on this: They were not made by neoconservatives, who had almost no voice in what happened, and certainly almost no voice in what happened after the downfall of the regime in Baghdad," he said."I'm getting damn tired of being described as an architect of the war. I was in favor of bringing down Saddam. Nobody said, 'Go design the campaign to do that.' I had no responsibility for that."
Instead he blames the disaster on "disloyalty" to President Bush from within the Administration. The LA Times suggests this is a swipe at Rumsfeld, but to me it sounds like another knife in Colin Powell's back.
Late Update: Kevin Drum has more on neocon revisionism.
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader EB:
I am from Missouri and I envy your reader from Vermont. I received 30 robocalls yesterday, and have logged 12 today, and it is barely noon. The stem cell amendment has generated the most calls with the Senate campaign between Jim Talent . . . and Claire McCaskill running a close second.
Several Vermont readers have written in to say that TPM Reader JS's experience in Vermont is not necessarily representative and that Vermonters are getting robocalls and other negative campaigning, too. Fair enough.
--David Kurtz
"Put a smile on your face and don't be such a horse's ass."
--Gov. Jeb Bush, responding Friday to a reporter questioning Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist about Crist's sexual orientation
--David Kurtz
Is Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) pulling down some of his campaign TV ads so he can save campaign funds for his legal defense?
Two days after launching a new advertisement, U.S. Rep. Curt Weldon has canceled some of his TV time, fueling speculation Friday he was throwing in the towel and saving money for a legal defense fund. The campaign denied the rumors, saying it was merely redirecting cash to "Tele-Town Halls" to reach out to moderate Republicans and independents in the final days of the campaign."We’re not pulling anything. We’re scaling a few things back," said Weldon spokesman Michael Puppio.
With the National Republican Congressional Committee spending $653,700 this week for ads opposing Democrat Joseph Sestak, Puppio said the campaign’s money would be better spent funding telephone forums that enable Weldon to answer live questions from voters.
If Weldon is in fact hoarding campaign funds for later use in his own legal defense while relying on NRCC funds to keep him on TV, I'm thinking the NRCC is going to be none too happy about it.
Late update: The Philadelphia Inquirer has a similar report, but with a slightly different take, noting that the NRCC has already shifted its money from the Weldon race to other Pennsylvania congressional races, which would seem to undermine the Weldon campaign's claim that pulling down some of its TV ads is simply a tactical shift. (Thanks to TPM Reader DL).
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader JD checks in from Baghdad:
"But first this Breaking News, Saddam Hussein was sentenced to death today in Iraq."That is how the Sunday talk shows will begin tomorrow, two days before the U.S. elections. All indications are that capital punishment is a go, a curfew is tentatively scheduled for tonight or tomorrow morning in much of Iraq to protect against the likely backlash. Saddam will be able to appeal, probably over about two months. The appeal to voters, though, will be how important it is to remain strong, stay the course, during the next two days -- most particularly Tuesday: this time, we've really turned the corner. . . .
Saddam will likely be sentenced during the wee hours EST, in plenty of time to round up "experts" for the panel shows: "Despite the violent reaction we are seeing, this really is one of the key indicators of progress and ongoing commitment we have been looking for..." You know the drill.
Hard to argue with that prediction.
--David Kurtz
A follow-up on what we shall call "The Snatch," short-hand for Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) shown on camera grabbing incriminating documents from a local TV investigative reporter and refusing to return them. Turns out the district staffer who blew the whistle on the use of district staff for campaign work was sent home when she reported for work yesterday. KDKA reports on the latest developments here.
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader RW:
I think that it is time that we ask that all Evangelicals supporting anti-gay marriage provisions to pledge that they themselves are not having gay sex or doing meth.
We'll call it the Hypocritic Oath.
--David Kurtz
More on Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) flipping out about a flip off. Election Central has the backstory.
--David Kurtz
Katherine Harris has said she is a "wannabe" Jew and is often mistaken as a Jew by Jews, but this ain't going to be winning her many friends, Jewish or otherwise:
U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, who has made past comments that raised questions about her religious sensitivity, prayed in a telephone prayer service recently that God would "bring the hearts and minds of our Jewish brothers and sisters into alignment."A Harris spokeswoman said Friday that the Longboat Key Republican, who has advocated electing Christian officeholders, was talking about converting Jews to vote Republican, not to Christianity.
. . .
In a prayer at the end of the conference call, she . . . added, "And Father God, right now on the day after the Jewish new year, Father, after the day after atonement, as they enter into their new year, Father God, I just pray that you would bring the hearts and minds of our Jewish brothers and sisters into alignment." She prayed for the safety of Israel, "your sacred nation, Father."
Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't be better for Democrats in the long run simply to concede the Florida Senate seat to Harris. It would certainly be better for journalists. What will we do without Harris in public life?
--David Kurtz
Remember the "Brokebank Democrats" ad being run against Democrat Jon Tester in Montana by swiftboater Bob Perry's Free Enterprise Fund?
We reported on it yesterday. Go take a look. We have it up at Election Central.
Well, TPM Reader PS took a look and noticed that the phone number that appears in the ad, with a voiceover exhorting viewers to call Jon Tester, looks like a home phone number. PS called and got an answering machine that sounded like the Tester family answering machine:
What I heard was, "Hi, you've reached the Testers, we can't answer the phone right now, so please leave a message."
Now, I have spared the Testers another call to verify this, but the number in the ad does match up with the number listed for the Testers in online phone directories. The Grand Old Party, plumbing the depths of campaign skullduggery.
I honestly didn't know you could even do this without running afoul of FCC harrrassment laws. Any telecommunications lawyers out there with a take on this?
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader JS wants in on the fun:
I feel so left out. I lived most of my life in a Boston suburb with no electoral hanky-panky tolerated, and now I'm in rural Vermont, scrupulously honest and fair-minded to the point of obsession, one polling place for my town in the volunteer fire department house, with old-fashioned hand-counted paper ballots, etc. Rich Tarrant, the typical sort of upstanding, moderate Republican millionaire businessman (basically Mitt Romney lite) who might have had a chance against Trotskyite Bernie Sanders in the Senate race, has so offended Vermonters with his comparatively mild negative advertising against Sanders that he sank in the polls almost as soon as he became known. Nobody does push-polling, nobody even does robo-calls.I feel a great sense of pride in my newly adopted home state for that, but still, it's so boring! How I yearn to be able to write panicky conspiracy theory diaries on Kos, or report some juicy bit of Republican skullduggery to TPM. But alas, it's not to be.
And so dear readers in battleground districts and states, it is up to you. JS must live vicariously through the experiences of other TPM readers. Keep those tips coming.
--David Kurtz
Earlier in the week we reported on the robocall push-polls being conducted by Common Sense Ohio in five states. I understand the outfit is making calls in Missouri now, too. If you have received any of these calls, in Missouri or elsewhere, let us know what they're saying.
--David Kurtz
An editorial scheduled to appear Monday in the Army Times, the Air Force Times, the Navy Times and the Marine Corps Times calls for the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
An excerpt:
Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, with the troops, with Congress and with the public at large. His strategy has failed, and his ability to lead is compromised. And although the blame for our failures in Iraq rests with the secretary, it will be the troops who bear its brunt.This is not about the midterm elections. Regardless of which party wins Nov. 7, the time has come, Mr. President, to face the hard bruising truth:
Donald Rumsfeld must go.
I wouldn't let the blame for Iraq stop at the Secretary of Defense, of course. The Vice President and President bear the ultimate responsibility. Nor do I think it's accurate to say this is not about the midterm elections. It has everything to do with the midterms, as does, I am sure, the timing of the publication of these editorials. My only other complaint would be, what took so long?
--David Kurtz
A brief personal note: Elections are a pretty big deal here at TPM, especially ones where the result may not actually suck. And it would take a lot to pull me away. So a few of you have asked why I disappeared at the end of the week. A simple, if unpleasant, explanation: I came down with a nasty stomach virus that put me out of commission the last two days. But now I'm back and ready for the final sprint.
Anyway, a few points for the final stretch. First, please keep the tips coming. The amount of leads and tips we've gotten from readers in the last ten days has been phenomenal. Please keep them coming in. I simply can't tell you how essential they are to what we do.
In the final countdown to election day, TPM Election Central is going to be our main spot for election updates and breaking news of all sorts. TPMCafe will also be hosting our elections scoreboard where we'll be updating the returns in real time as they come in Tuesday night and, I suspect, into Wednesday.
TPMmuckraker.com will be doing its usually cataloging of political muck and skullduggery of all sorts. But from now through the election muckrakers will be given special focus to voter suppression efforts, dirty tricks and all election related muck. You're in a far better position to see this stuff than any network news producer or prestige journalist in Washington or New York. Because you'll see it first in your mailbox, or hear it on your phone or you'll see it in the roadblocks thrown up on election day. These stunts come in all shapes and sizes. So keep your eyes and ears open.
More shortly.
--Josh Marshall
The Glens Falls Post-Star, which endorsed Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) only days ago, has withdrawn its endorsement over the domestic violence incident and Sweeney's changing stories about what happened.
--Josh Marshall
Oh, you knew this was coming.
John Sweeney to investigate the leak of the "wife knocking" police report.
It's not clear if he's still saying that the leaked report was false. But it is clear he's not going to be releasing the "real" report any time soon.
--Paul Kiel
New ad running in Montana from a conservative attack group: "Brokebank Democrats."
No, we're not kidding.
Update: And that ad comes to you courtesy of Bob Perry's dollars -- the primary funder of the Swift Boat Vets in 2004. He's invested $9 million in attack ads so far this year.
--Paul Kiel
Wow, in one of the all-time great "denials" Ted Haggard admits that a hotel referred him to his male escort accuser for a massage, but denies having sex with the man; admits to having purchased crystal meth from the accuser, but denies actually using the drug.
Makes that Clinton fella look like a rank amateur for his "I didn't inhale" defense.
Late Update: Video of the Haggard denial here.
--David Kurtz
Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) finally, really resigning for real. In just an hour or so. Really.
--Paul Kiel
Oh, now it's personal. GOP attacks Dem challenger in Wyoming for being from New York.
Update: TPM Reader ZL spells it out:
The first I thought when I watched the anti-Trauner ad, where he's attacked for being from New York, was: "Is he Jewish?"Yep. He is.
Surprise, surprise. After the anti-Ford ad in Tennessee, we get a classic bit of anti-Semitism ("New Yorker," nudge nudge wink wink) in Wyoming.
I'm not sure if you were implying this in your comment, but you might want to make it explicit for those who aren't so familiar with the traditional New York/Jewish anti-Semitic code-word.
And TPM Reader MS:
When a campaign starts criticizing an opponent's "New York values" anywhere west or south of the Delaware River, it's a dogwhistle call to point out to voters that he's Jewish.
--Paul Kiel
If you flip off the President, Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) will make sure you lose your job... and then lie about it.
--Paul Kiel
From the bizarre to the surreal. Last night Ted Haggard's successor sent an email to his congregation admitting that some of the gay former prostitute's allegations against Haggard are true. This morning the accuser failed a lie detector test administered on talk radio.
--David Kurtz
Ahhh, John Sweeney. The police need his say-so to release the official report of the domestic abuse call that's derailed his campaign. And he says he wants to give it. But somehow, he just can't bring himself to do it.
--Paul Kiel
One of the great entertainments to watch just before an upheaval election is list of candidates who want to make sure they lose their dignity ahead of losing their seat. Along those lines is Rep. Deborah Pryce, number four in the House leadership who's just announced that "What's happening in Iraq is not a direct reflection on me." And you know it's good because those were actually her prepared remarks her campaign sent CNN after the interview. During the live session, in the midst of answering, she wigged out and declared the interview over.
--Josh Marshall
Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) provides a new model of scandal management -- when confronted with incriminating evidence by a reporter, snatch it away.
--Paul Kiel
Is Vito in trouble?
New York City's only Republican congressman, Vito Fossella, has held five debates against his underfunded opponent, Democrat Steve Harrison, and is now running Dick Morris-inspired radio ads that claim Harrison cares more about protecting terrorists than New Yorkers:
The scare ad features a phone call between two terrorists that suddenly goes dead. An announcer says Democrat Steve Harrison wants to stop wiretapping terrorists who are planning new attacks."Steve Harrison: putting terrorist rights above the safety of you and your family," the spot says.
CQ Politics rates this race as "Republican Favored," a shift toward the Democrat from "Safe Republican."
--David Kurtz
One government official has done more than perhaps any other in policing waste, fraud and abuse among contractors in Iraq. He just got his reward: a pink slip. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Not looking so good for Ted Haggard:
Haggard, 50, initially denied the allegations, telling 9News Wednesday night that "I've never had a gay relationship with anybody, and I'm steady with my wife. I'm faithful to my wife."But KKTV in Colorado Springs reported that New Life Associate Senior Pastor Ross Parsley told a meeting of church elders Thursday night that Haggard had met with the church's overseers earlier in the day and "had admitted to some indiscretions."
Parsley told the elders that Haggard had said some of the allegations were true, but not all of them.
I'm guessing that to most readers Ted Haggard is barely known. But this is the conservative equivalent of Jesse Jackson getting caught wearing a hood at a Klan cross burning. The political implications are enormous.
While evangelical Christians have been a force in national politics for the last two decades, most evangelicals still harbor a deep disaffection with politics. It remains a predominately secular endeavour, in their view, and for many evangelicals there is a strongly held sense that politics, like other aspects of the pop culture, corrupts those who come in contact with it. That has always been the headwind facing Republicans seeking to rally evangelicals to political purpose.
Foley and Haggard are turning the headwind into a full-blown gale for the GOP.
--David Kurtz
These are the kinds of local reports we're looking for here in the final stretch (thanks to TPM Reader BR):
Early voters in the heart of the heated race to succeed former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay were greeted Wednesday with red and white signs that read: "Want more illegals? Vote Democrat" and "Encourage Terrorists. Vote Democrat."
The GOP paid for the signs.
--David Kurtz
Last March, the federal government set up a Web site to make public a vast archive of Iraqi documents captured during the war. The Bush administration did so under pressure from Congressional Republicans who said they hoped to “leverage the Internet” to find new evidence of the prewar dangers posed by Saddam Hussein.But in recent weeks, the site has posted some documents that weapons experts say are a danger themselves: detailed accounts of Iraq’s secret nuclear research before the 1991 Persian Gulf war. The documents, the experts say, constitute a basic guide to building an atom bomb.
Last night, the government shut down the Web site after The New York Times asked about complaints from weapons experts and arms-control officials. A spokesman for the director of national intelligence said access to the site had been suspended “pending a review to ensure its content is appropriate for public viewing.”
Had enough?
--David Kurtz
Here's where we are heading into the final weekend:
Democrats expressed growing optimism that their long season out of power might soon end. Sen. Chuck Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senate campaign organization, claimed strong early voting in a long-shot race in Arizona and said it was "harbinger of a wave" that would benefit his party.Five days before the election, Democratic strategists said none of their incumbents in either house of Congress was trailing — and Republicans did not disagree.
Republicans disputed Schumer's claim about Arizona, but even so, the GOP side of the political ledger was far less positive. Strategists already have written off the re-election prospects of incumbent Sens. Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine in Ohio, as well as six or more seats in GOP hands in the House. Dozens more Republican lawmakers — powerbrokers and backbenchers, conservatives and moderates — struggled to survive in a campaign shadowed by the war in Iraq and scandal at home.
A few thoughts before the whirlwind sweeps away all perspective.
Not to rain on the parade but all the talk of dramatic Democratic gains in the House has a tendency to downplay a serious underlying structural problem. Even under the rosiest scenarios, the Democrats only pick up somewhere around 50 seats. Realistically, it looks like 25-35 pickups. The House was designed to be the national political institution most politically responsive to the people. I would venture to say that given the massive train wreck that the GOP has created in public affairs, the founders would be stunned to see so few seats change hands. If these are the kinds of political conditions it takes to move 50 House seats, then we're in trouble.
GOP losses of whatever size are going to trigger a wave of internal backbiting and fingerpointing. No surprise there. But I suspect there is going to emerge a common theme among Republicans, a declaration that the political environment was so toxic that no incumbent party could expect to emerge unscathed. The more brash will declare that the GOP did quite well given the circumstances. What will be missing is any sense that the Republicans made their own bed and were forced to lay in it. The 2006 "political environment" will be treated like a weather phenomenon, something beyond our control, a freak of nature, instead of what it is: a reaction to the GOP's man-made calamity.
I hope that when the political history of the last half century is written it will show, as it should, that the Republicans engaged in a brand of divisive electoral politics that pitted Americans against each other: white against black, men against women, rich against poor, native born against immigrant, straight against gay. Republicans deserve to be tarred by history for exploiting our weaknesses, our prejudices, and our lesser selves for their own political gain. But those are still our weaknesses and our prejudices. We own them. And it is our lesser selves that have succumbed to the Republican political pitch and been willing to be exploited. Removing the Republicans from power will only be a temporary fix unless we fundamentally fix ourselves so that no one, no party, no movement can exploit those same weaknesses again.
--David Kurtz
I have to say these are the first national Democratic Party ads I've seen that strike me as sufficiently tough and hard-hitting. Not perfect. The Kyl ad is paced too slowly (is anyone under the age of 40 producing Democratic campaign ads these days?), and the Allen ad, while powerful, ends with a weak visual image. But overall this is much better than most of the earlier stuff.
--David Kurtz
So Ted Haggard has stepped aside temporarily as pastor of his mega-church and resigned as president of the National Association of Evangelicals. The Rocky Mountain News reports, "Some community leaders in the Colorado Springs had scheduled a rally this afternoon in support of Haggard but canceled the gathering at the request of the church."
So here we have an exploding (gay) sex scandal reminiscent of Jimmy Swaggart and Jim Bakker, yet no mention of it on Drudge. If an angel falls in the conservative forest and Drudge doesn't link to it, did it really happen?
Late update: Drudge relents. Provides 2 links on Haggard story. Nearly 24 hours after the story first broke.
--David Kurtz
More on Rev. Ted Haggard, super-evangelist and, allegedly, monumental hypocrite.
He says he's stepping down -- temporarily.
--Paul Kiel
Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL) goes for the Social Security bamboozlement trifecta... and he does it!
--Paul Kiel
Breaking from the AP -- details of the settlement between Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA) and his mistress, who alleged years of abuse. $500,000 and stay quiet about it.
--Paul Kiel
Paul Kiel has more on the NRCC's efforts to help Mark Foley with damage control after ABC approached Foley about the overfriendly emails to pages.
--David Kurtz
One of the first female soldiers to die in Iraq committed suicide, after objecting to interrogation techniques used on prisoners (via War and Piece).
--David Kurtz
The National Republican Congressional Committee was having private discussions over how to do "damage control" on Foleygate earlier than suspected.
--David Kurtz
A Colorado TV station reported last night that Rev. Ted Haggard, a major figure in the evangelical movement who has not hesitated to cross over into the arena of secular politics, allegedly had an ongoing sexual relationship with a gay former male escort.
Haggard denies it.
Haggard, the founder and senior leader of the New Life Church in Colorado Springs, is one of the country's most prominent evangelical religious leaders, in part because of the very active role he has taken in national politics. Haggard is not as recognizable as James Dobson, who is also based in Colorado Springs, but Haggard is arguably just as influential within evangelical and conservative political circles, talking to President Bush or his advisers every Monday.
Last year Harper's ran a lengthy article featuring Haggard, and the magazine has helpfully posted the piece on its website today.
First Mark Foley, now Ted Haggard? It's hard to conjure up anything else that could further depress the turnout of conservative evangelicals.
Late Update: No mention of the Haggard story on Drudge. I thought sex and politics was Drudge's lifeblood. Maybe he's pretending not to notice this one. After all, you wouldn't want to demoralize the true believers at this late stage of the campaign.
Later update: I'm not the only one to notice a studied silence from our conservative brethren.
--David Kurtz
Election Central screens the latest political ads. Ned Lamont as Jimmy Stewart's Mr. Smith Goes to Washington is a little spooky.
--David Kurtz
Your daily Jim Gibbons / cocktail waitress cover-up update. In today's edition, it's the tale of the tapes.
--Paul Kiel
NRCC drops another $6 million nationwide, and some of it went to Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), despite reports that the national GOP had given up on that race.
--David Kurtz
Josh posted a couple of weeks ago about the modus operandi of the AP's John Solomon: "His rep is as an easy mark for oppo researchers peddling their wares -- and from both sides."
So I was almost amused when I saw Solomon's hit piece today on John Kerry. In a story that purports to follow up on Kerry's botched Iraq joke (the headline is "Kerry's '72 Army comments mirror latest"), Solomon reports:
During a Vietnam-era run for Congress three decades ago, John Kerry said he opposed a volunteer Army because it would be dominated by the underprivileged, be less accountable and be more prone to "the perpetuation of war crimes."
Phrased that way, it appears that Kerry was linking being underprivileged to the commission of war crimes. But once you read the rest of Solomon's piece it becomes pretty clear that Kerry thought that a professional army would be more likely to commit war crimes (which may be arguable but is not implausible) and also thought that an all-volunteer force would be comprised disproportionately (and unfairly) of the underprivileged. Solomon commits the causal fallacy of concluding that Kerry therefore said that the underprivileged are more likely to commit war crimes.
Now back to the Solomon MO. His sources for the story were "a former law enforcement official who monitored 1970s anti-war activities" and "someone who gathered" the document in which the comments appear"from archives during Kerry's unsuccessful 2004 presidential campaign." The first source gave Solomon the tip. The second source, apparently an opposition researcher, provided the document.
Like I said, almost funny. Then I considered what a treasure trove the current national security apparatus must be yielding even as we speak for some oppo researcher to exploit against a yet unknown Iraq War veteran 34 years from now.
--David Kurtz
See Mark Foley's cameo in a straight-to-video piece of, err, cinema verite.
--David Kurtz
Republicans run ads with images of flag-draped coffins... attacking Democrats for running ads with flag-draped coffins.
--Paul Kiel
To Dick Cheney, information is a very dangerous thing. But let's see if that argument holds up in court.
--Paul Kiel
Election watcher Larry Sabato's predictions are in...
23-30 House and 5-6 Senate pickups for Dems -- but more impressively, he thinks it's possible that the GOP might not win a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship from Dems this election. Details here.
--Paul Kiel
Cluck, cluck: If Republican lawmakers hadn't broken quite so many laws, maybe they'd have a better shot at holding on to power. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Our pal Ruy Teixeira does an in-depth crunching of all the numbers and polls. Lotta good stuff. Check it out.
--Josh Marshall
Charlottesville PD investigating the Allen campain's assault on blogger Mike Stark. And Sen. Allen (R-VA) is among those the cops want to question.
--Josh Marshall
This has to be one of the most pathetic things I've seen this election campaign, though it's still got serious competition from this Colorado GOP House candidate who sent out a flyer begging forgiveness for demanding that Social Security be abolished when he was a (24 year old) 'know-it-all-kid'.
Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA), one of the more bizarre and execrable specimens housed in the House GOP menagerie, is, you know, the subject of a very serious federal corruption and bribery investigation. And now he's gone on the air with ad, the message of which appears to be: vote Weldon, because it's really not clear yet that he's a crook.
Here's how the Philadelphia Inquirer describes the ad ...
A Weldon spot addresses the federal probe without mentioning it directly, using the voices of ordinary voters. The commercial begins with a question - "Would you give a friend the benefit of a doubt?" - and concludes with the answer: "He's been there for us. Now it's our turn to be there for him."
This must be a GOP version of the civic compact I'm not familiar with. Congressman represents constituents. In turn constituents stand by him when he's investigated for taking bribes. I think Locke may say something like that. But it's been a while since I studied that stuff in grad school. So I can't remember.
Vote Weldon in his time of need! He's been there for us. So shouldn't we stick by him while he's investigated for bribery and corruption?
That's really got to get the volunteers juiced up to knock on doors.
Has anyone actually seen this ad? I'm dying to see it.
--Josh Marshall
Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) fights back against news reports he roughed up his wife who then called the police for help. He kinda sorta denies the events happened, 
but not really. You can see the details in this report. But the essence of it is that while he says that "the report is false ... there was no domestic violence", he doesn't really say the events as reported didn't take place.
This afternoon Sweeney spoke publicly, with his wife standing silently at his side: "I love my wife, I love my children, I love my family, and I will not allow them to be dragged in this just because my opponent has the thirst and desire to have power."
Sweeney clearly wants to give the impression that the document which was the basis of reports in the Albany Times-Union and the New York Daily News -- a page from a police blotter -- was a fabrication, and that his Democratic opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, is behind it.
But in a statement released earlier in the day by Sweeney's wife it's clear that something happened on the night in question. "The evening in question was a very difficult time for our family Real life has real problems. Like every family, we have personal challenges that we must overcome."
The whole thing amounts to one really fraught non-denial denial. Did the events in question happen on that night? No comment. Did Mrs. Sweeney call 911? No comment. Was there a physical confrontation? No comment.
But the story that ran in the papers? Terrible, terrible totally false double not true stuff. A shameful report concocted by my opponent.
Shameless, I tell you!
Did I mention shameful?
--Josh Marshall
Majority Leader John Boehner (R-OH): Don't blame Rummy. It was the friggin' soldiers who screwed up.
This afternoon on Blitzer's Situation Room, Wolf reads John Boehner a list of Republicans criticizing or calling for the resignation of Don Rumsfeld. And Boehner responds ...
BOEHNER: Wolf, I understand that, but let's not blame what's happening in Iraq on Rumsfeld.BLITZER: But he's in charge of the military.
BOEHNER: But the fact is, the generals on the ground are in charge, and he works closely with them and the president. We've seen this run up in violence as we get closer to the election, as we get closer to Ramadan, same thing we've seen over the last couple of years.
It's bad enough Boehner wants to place blame on the soldiers in the field. But Boehner has a very short memory. Remember, the whole Rummy cult that held Washington in its thrall only a few years ago was based on the idea that he didn't just take the stodgy generals' word for it. Their ideas were outmoded. And the men were stuck in their ways. It took Rummy to knock their heads together and tell them what was what.
So really, Rumsfeld is probably a lot more responsible for this disaster than almost any other Sec Def has been for anything else, because he's insisted on such a level of micromanagement and such a complete disregard for the professional advice of his generals.
But for John Boehner, don't forget the central mission: defend Rummy and the president at all costs. Don't cut and run.
Late Update: And now the video ...
--Josh Marshall
The nasty campaign mailer of the day, courtesy of Colorado's 7th -- where Republicans sent out a mailer against Dem Ed Perlmutter apparently tailored to look like an official sex offender notification.
--Paul Kiel
Where's the outrage, indeed. Kerry flubs a dumb joke, CNN goes wall-to-wall for two days straight. President Bush says a vote for Democrats is a vote for the terrorists, CNN (and the rest of the biggs) gives it a big yawn. Ed Kilgore has more.
--Josh Marshall
A nice political cartoon explanation of what a lot of folks have been saying -- and, come to think of it, what the president is saying too.
--Josh Marshall
I think this is what's called a bad sign (from the AP) ...
Manhattan security company Kroll has withdrawn its bodyguard teams from Iraq and Afghanistan after it lost four workers in Iraq, its parent company said Wednesday.Michael Cherkasky, president and chief executive of Kroll owner Marsh & McLennan Cos., told The Associated Press that the business in the two countries wasn't worth risking the lives of their employees.
Too dangerous for the hired paramilitaries.
Late Update: Apparently Bechtel has just announced they're pulling out too.
Iraq: Not secure enough for mercenaries. Helluva job.
--Josh Marshall
He's facing sexual assault charges. He had an illegal domestic worker. Now Rep. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) finds himself in a totally new scandal.
--Justin Rood
From Tom DeLay's old district, the GOP bemoans a tricky Democratic campaign mailer. At least they admit sending it, one expert says.
--Justin Rood
Finally, Tony Snow tries a line on the Kerry flap so absurd that the press corps can't help but laugh.
--Paul Kiel
We're always trying to do our best to help our readers make sense of the news. And along those lines we just got this email from TPM Reader AB ...
So I’m lost and maybe TPM can help. Just how many GOP senators or congressmen are currently accused of sex-related crimes? Y’all might come up with some handy-dandy chart so that we can keep Sweeney from Gibbons from Foley from whosiewhatsits in Pennsylvania who started the whole strangling fad.
Okay, let me see if I can give a run-down here.
We have Rep. Foley (R-FL) accused of various inappropriate sexual contact with underage congressional pages.
Then we have Rep. Gibbons (R-NV) in an on-going story about allegedly accosting/propositioning a woman other than his wife in a parking garage in Las Vegas. Gibbons is currently running for governor. And there's a separate dimension of this scandal where his cronies are trying to cover up what happened. I guess this explains how things that happen in Vegas stay in Vegas.
Next we've got the older story of Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA) who allegedly tried to strangle his mistress.
Then just last night we learned that the apparently more traditionally-minded Rep. John Sweeney (R-NY) "got into [a] verbal argument [with his wife] that turned a little physical by her being grabbed by the neck and pushed around the house."
Anyway, that's the House GOP sex/assault/battery checklist. Am I missing anyone?
--Josh Marshall
Rep. John Sweeney's (R-NY) opponent asks for "a full accounting" of his wife's domestic violence 911 call.
--Paul Kiel
Well, Crooks & Liars has it. CNN's Heidi Collins suggests the Allen campaign's attack on Mike Stark may have been justified because they thought he was a terrorist on the reasoning that he might have had a bomb in his backpack.
--Josh Marshall
Ezra Klein on something beyond pathetic. And along those lines, should lightning strike and Dems take over, what will happen to those DC worthies whose career has been based on fellating the Republican power structure?
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader AW just wrote in: "Haha. I just heard Heidi Collins on CNN remark on another report about 'protestor' Stark: 'Wow. The really scary thing about it is that you don’t know what you’re dealing with. He had a backpack on.'" Did anyone else just catch that?
--Josh Marshall
More about that incident yesterday in which blogger Mike Stark got knocked around, thrown to the ground and put in a headlock by Allen staffers.
A number of you have flagged this passage in the article from the Washington Post ...
Charlottesville Police Lt. Gary Pleasants said Stark reported the incident yesterday and indicated that he wanted to press assault charges against the men. Pleasants said police are investigating and trying to determine the names of the Allen staffers involved."We will find out who the people are, give him the information and he can go to the magistrate and try to obtain a warrant for them," Pleasants said.
Now, thankfully, I haven't had a lot of experience with how local police departments handle assault charges. But a number of readers point out, and I'm inclined to agree, that this sounds like an awfully passive approach on the part of local law enfocement.
The best I can tell, Stark was just asking admittedly embarrassing questions of Allen in a public forum. But however you want to characterize his questions, the videotape of the incident seem to provide clear evidence that Stark had done no more than ask questions when three members of Allen's entourage, man-handled him, put him in a headlock and threw him to the ground. That sounds like the sort of thing that leads to an assault charge. But do the police usually leave it to the victim to do this sort of do-it-yourself investigation and charging?
The local police gives Stark the names and he has to go find a magistrate to get a warrant for their arrest?
This isn't just a rhetorical question. As I said, I have no direct familiarity with how this works. But I'd be pretty disappointed if, having been accosted and beat up by some hoodlums on the street, the cops gave me a receipt saying it was Joe, John and Fred who kicked my butt and that I was welcome to head down to the courthouse and have at it.
Late Update: From a number of TPM lawyer-readers, I hear that what appears from the outside to be passivity on the part of the local police is actually fairly standard in a case like this.
Later Update: Hmmm. A former prosecutor and magistrate says no way. So maybe not.
Late Later Update: From TPM Reader MS ...
The Charlottesville PD's behavior may be standard practice in many cases, as your other lawyer-readers have pointed out already, but it's not necessarily the right practice in this case. The PD is busy, yes, and doesn't have time to go around arresting everyone who is accused of tackling someone else when no officer saw the scuffle. But this case involves a Senator a week before the election, and oh yeah, there's video footage of the battery. (By the way, Stark needs to be pressing charges not just for assault but for battery as well. I know the cop/lawyer shows lump the two together but they're entirely different criminal offenses. Assault is just when you put someone in fear of being harmed. Battery is when you actually harm them.) The idea that the police aren't getting involved because they're not sure anything wayward occurred is preposterous.As an aside, am I the only one who gets a really strong Greg Stillson vibe from Sen. Allen? A superficially religious zealot surrounded by violent goons who cause trouble for anyone who might get in Allen's way?
--Josh Marshall
It seems like people are starting to realize what happened yesterday in Baghdad.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader JF on JK ...
OK, so JK has once again demonstrated how his lack of verbal discipline can cause serious problems in a campaign. It may be best for Democrats to just toss him overboard and weather this storm...(sorry)...but two very positive things can come from what was very probably (based on his history) a botched joke:1) Senator Kerry has likely diminished his own chances for retaking the Democratic Presidential Nomination in '08, with this indelible reminder of how not-ready-for-prime-time he is. And much more
importantly...2) The Senator has unintentionally triggered one heck of an overreaction by Bush & Co., which Dems ought to seize upon. This is perhaps the best example of what this administration has done again
and again since 9/11 -- exploiting our troops in a time of war for political gain. It's time they are called on it, in strong, clear terms.When a majority of the public demands accountability for the Iraq fiasco, does the Bush Administration answer responsibly, with a strategy for success? No, they ignore the well-being of our troops, instead climbing on their backs, using Americans' love and admiration for our fighting men and women as a cheap wedge to divide the country. These politicians are exploiting the very danger that they have irresponsibly placed our troops in - to score cheap political points in the week before an election.
We've all seen this before. Rather than admit their incompetence they hide behind the generals, exploiting their honor and respect for the chain of command to claim a false endorsement of the Pentagon's misguided plans. In this atmosphere of lies and manipulation, no serious dialogue about how to fix the Iraq debacle can take place -- leading inevitably to the senseless loss of MORE American lives.
This is not the principled leadership of true patriots who respect the US military.It is frankly despicable - the worst display of a craven and desperate attempt to cling to power. They and all those who parrot them should be ashamed.
(The fact that they are shameless explains why this election has turned into a national referendum on their kind of faux-patriot politics.)
TPM Reader ST from up north ...
So Kerry makes a botched joke and the media take their cue from the Repubs and wonder aloud if he's cost the Dems their chances at winning the Congress back.Yet Bush can come out a couple days earlier and make the direct statement that if "Democrats get elected - terrorists win" and that barely causes a ripple?
Up here in Canada, if a sitting Prime Minister or heck, an opposition politician had made that statement about voting for the other party, the backlash would have been ferocious - not just in the media but the general public. Is this part of the media believing you need to show more deference to the President and its office?
And finally from TPM Reader DS ...
I have talked to many people out here in sunny optimistic California who are getting nervous over JK’s comments. The phone calls are from people sounding uncomfortable who were sounded fired up to get out the vote. It isn’t just the comments but his unwillingness to understand how they sound to anyone who is CURRENTLY involved with the military. Please let our candidates speak for themselves. JK is coming off like a sore loser personalizing a debate on Iraq trying to make it about him and Bush again. I am a loyal supporter and it didn’t sound like a joke it, it sounded like JK was saying dumb people serve their country and the elites don’t have to. Please let’s keep the focus on that disaster in Iraq and our great local candidates. Please apologize for how it sounded to so many of us – not for what you said and sit down – you are not inspiring anyone except Rove. Please don’t kill the momentum --- JK isn’t running but he can help lose this great opportunity.Okay, enough of this. Back to what and who this race is about.
--Josh Marshall
Comity in CIA leak case moves the Libby trial forward. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Excerpts from the Sweeney domestic violence 911 call (as reported by the Albany Times-Union) ...
Sweeney's wife, Gaia, placed the emergency call to a police dispatcher in Saratoga County at 12:55 a.m. on Dec. 2, according to the document.``Female caller stating her husband is knocking her around the house,'' a dispatcher wrote. ``Then she stated `Here it comes, are you ready?' and disconnected the call. Upon call-back, the husband stated no problem ... asked the wife if she wanted to talk. Wife (caller) then got on the phone and stated that she's fine and that she's drunk. Caller sounded intoxicated. She advised that she was endangered for a moment, but everything is fine.''
A short time later officer Scott W. Gunsel arrived at the Sweeney home.
The police report obtained by the Times Union indicates that Scott W. Gunsel, a trooper assigned to Clifton Park, responded to the couple's home along a cul-de-sac in a tidily kept neighborhood near the center of town. It is routine for police agencies to check residences from where 911 or other emergency calls have been made, even if callers say everything is fine or that the call was made in error.Gunsel wrote in a blotter entry that he found the couple separated and calm when he arrived at the home that night. Under common police practice, the document lists Gaia Sweeney as a ``victim'' and Sweeney as a ``suspect.''
"Complainant stated that she and husband got into verbal argument that turned a little physical by her being grabbed by the neck and pushed around the house,'' Gunsel wrote in the narrative portion of the blotter entry, according to the document. ``Suspect had scratches on face. Both parties refused medical attention. Complainant removed to friend's house for the evening ... refused any type of prosicution (sic) arrest.''
Is there some disconnect in this clause: "got into verbal argument that turned a little physical by her being grabbed by the neck and pushed around the house"?
The Daily News has more.
--Josh Marshall
Judge rules in favor of the Denver Three (folks kicked out of Bush Social Security event for not being true believers).
--Josh Marshall
It's time for the closing argument. The issue of the day may be Iraq. I think it is. But an issue isn't an argument. An argument brings the issues together and motivates action. So what's the argument? What should candidates and surrogates be saying at campaign stops this week?
I think it comes down to this. Beyond the incompetence, the bungled policies and the lies (which are plenty bad enough), where the country finds itself is a situation in which the leadership of the country either can't see, or won't see, or most likely wants to pretend not to see what a growing majority of the country clearly can see.
It's most clear, most visible in Iraq. Though there's a bit less consensus on whether it was a mistake from the outset, there's an overwhelming consensus among Americans today that Iraq has become a disaster for the United States and that it's not going to get better on the course we're now on.
But the president just says, No. Sure, there are a few bumps along the way. But fundamentally it was a good idea, we're doing the right thing and we're on the right track. No matter what however many people tell him, that's what his gut tells him so it's full speed ahead. He's going to stay the course right over the cliff.
In America, political action in Washington usually tracks fairly closely with public opinion, even though the voters only get a real bite at the apple every two years. But it doesn't have to be that way. The people in charge can pretty much ignore what people think and say. For the two years between elections, they're close to invulnerable.
And that's the closer in this election. How do you think Iraq has gone? How do you think Congress is doing its job? How did you think Katrina was handled? Different people are going to have different hot button issues. But across the board I think what we're seeing in the country is that sense of disconnect -- things are seriously off course but the folks in charge won't admit it and don't know what to do about it.
So to voters I think the pitch is, think back over the last two years. You only have one chance to go on record with your verdict. Thumbs up or thumbs down. One chance before you have to go back and sit in the stands again for another two years.
Are you on board with what's happening? Or do you want to go on record saying things have to change? One chance.
And if you give the thumbs up, how will you feel when you wake up on November 8th?
--Josh Marshall
Not good for Rep. Sweeney (R-NY). Not good at all (from the Albany Times Union) ...
The wife of U.S. Rep. John Sweeney called police last December to complain her husband was ``knocking her around'' during a late-night argument at the couple's home, according to a document obtained last week by the Times Union.The emergency call to a police dispatcher triggered a visit to the couple's residence by a state trooper from Clifton Park, who filed a domestic incident report after noting that the congressman had scratches on his face, the document states. No criminal charges were filed.
Gaia M. Sweeney, 36, told a trooper that her husband had grabbed her by the neck and was pushing her around the house, according to the document.
Creeping Sherwoodism?
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader BR checks in from Texas ...
So now, according to Bush, anyone who votes for a Democrat is voting for the terrorists. And law-abiding citizens get manhandled or arrested for questioning officials at public events—or addressing Dick Cheney in a Colorado mall. This isn’t the country I know and love. It’s gone to a very dark place, not one I care to visit, let alone inhabit. I’m an old-fashioned romantic, I guess—or maybe just old. But my favorite political story, probably apocryphal, is of the little old lady who was polled in one of the Eisenhower-Stevenson races in the 50s. Who, she was asked, would she vote for. “Why, I’m not going to vote,” she replied. “Why on earth would you not vote?” asked the pollster. “Well,” she replied, “Mr. Eisenhower and Mr. Stevenson are both fine gentlemen, and the country will be in good hands either way.” Would that we could still feel that way. And that our leaders, elected or selected, could treat us with a little respect.
Six more days.
--Josh Marshall
Some brief thoughts on Kerry.
Whatever Kerry meant to say, it provided plenty of grist for feigned outrage from Republicans. It certainly didn't sound good. But I take it as a given that it was a botched jab at President Bush because I don't believe a bunch of Republicans who never served in the military have more respect for the military than a Democrat who did. But that's life. Republicans are looking for everything they can get. Fine.
But it's important not to forget one thing. John Kerry isn't the Democratic party. And this election isn't about John Kerry. It's about Iraq. It's about the man who's actually president, the man whose policies have led to the disaster the country is facing. George W. Bush.
This whole national drama we're involved in is about the president's continued refusal to accept responsibility, or more properly speaking, accountability for anything. He wants the policies and politics of the country to proceed along as if his policies hadn't already led us into disaster after disaster. That's what this election is about, not the 2004 election or anything else.
Everything that's not about that is a distraction.
--Josh Marshall
Allen tackle victim Mike Stark to Washington Post: Who you callin' a heckler?
And no, Stark says, there wasn't any heckling or yelling before Allen staffers started pushing and shoving him.
--Greg Sargent
The video clip posted here from CNN gives a better view of exactly what happened. As far as I can tell there was no heckling or raised voices before the Allen staffers started grabbing and pushing the guy.
--Josh Marshall
Mike Stark, the fellow who was treated like a tackling dummy by Senator George Allen's staff today, writes a letter demanding that Allen fire his staffers and saying he's pressing charges against Allen himself.
"I spent four years in the Marine Corps. I'll be damned if I'll let my country be taken from me by thugs that are afraid of taking responsibility for themselves."
--Greg Sargent
I'm curious why more isn't being made of this. It's being widely reported that on the order of Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki, the US have ended a five day old military blockade of the Sadr City section of Baghdad. But that cordon was in place to help find the recently abducted US soldier. So it sounds a lot like on Maliki's say-so we've essentially called off the search. Is President Bush being asked about this?
--Josh Marshall
Okay, TPM Election Central's Greg Sargent got Mike Stark on the phone, the guy who got tackled and put in a head lock by those Allen staffers. An update and quotes shortly.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader JL chimes in ...
Last night on Olbermann's Countdown, Iraq vet Paul Rieckhoff tossed off a line about politics and Iraq that went something like "politicians in DC seem more interested in attacking each other than attacking the enemies of this country."Couldn't this be a fairly well-stated retort to Bush's attempt to pile-on Kerry for his poorly worded comment? All Dems (and not Kerry) should flood the cable talk shows after Bush speaks with remarks that go like this: "Republicans would rather attack political opponents than the enemies of America. Word games and smear attacks are really all they know how to do. If they knew how to attack America's enemies, wouldn't they have done more than stay the course for the last three years?"
Just a thought.
A good one.
--Josh Marshall
The Virginia madness continues...
First, we have some video for you of the Attack of the Allen Staffers over at Election Central. Give it a watch.
And if you think this campaign is getting bitter now, just wait. Both the NRSC and DSCC are dumping a combined total of total of over $3.5 million into the race -- with only a week to go.
Webb, meanwhile, appears buoyed by all those new polls showing him up -- he's on the air with a new spot which doesn't mention Allen and sounds like Webb's closing argument.
Late Update: John Aravosis has a great series of stills of Stark being put in a choke hold and hurled to the floor. Aren't there laws against attacking someone like this? I mean, first they call a guy macaca, then they're assaulting people asking questions. I mean, sheesh, what happens next? He just starts picking off dudes in the audience from behind the podium with a TEC-9? That's one dangerous campaign.
--Greg Sargent
Have you received one of those robo calls in Maryland or Tennessee about whether you support rights for terrorists or medical research experiments on unborn babies?
--Paul Kiel
Oops. John McCain shows up at to campaign with Tammy Duckworth's opponent, fresh from a visit to Walter Reed, the nearby hospital where Duckworth, a double amputee, was treated, and proceeds to praise the "brave young [soldiers] who have served and sacrificed so much."
"Many of them have lost limbs, as you know."
--Paul Kiel
I think John Cole has the right take on this latest John Kerry outrage nonsense. When I first heard what Kerry said, I wasn't quite sure what he meant by it. CNN is now going wall to wall bonkers on it. I take it Kerry's refering to our ignorance and that of our leaders in getting us bogged down in Iraq -- since there's no longer any such thing as draft deferments or, for that matter, a draft. But Kerry, I think, has the right response. Nothing to apologize for. What does he have to apologize for to the president and his party who've gotten thousands of Americans killed on their altar of their arrogance and lies.
Are the Republicans saying US soldiers and marines are responsible for President Bush's failed policies?
Late Update: The funniest thing about this has to be CNN getting goaded into making it a red letter 'Breaking News', 'Developing Story'.
Later Update: It's really a case study in the Republican outrage apparatus, one McCain's in on too now. What does President Bush have to apologize for? Let's see. Taking the country to war on the basis of what he knew were lies? Check. Distorting and lying about WMD intelligence to goad the country into war? Check. Having no plan for what to do in Iraq after Baghdad fell? Check. Lying about how badly things were going in Iraq because he coudln't face the truth and thus letting hundreds or thousands or American military personnel die? Check. Mmmm. Lying to the country about al Qaida being tied to Iraq, resulting in hundreds or thousands of American deaths? Check. Got any more?
--Josh Marshall
'Calling All Wingnuts' creator Mike Stark tackled by Allen staffers while asking Sen. Allen (R-VA) a question.
Late Update: And see what the question was that got the Allen goons to tackle the guy: "Why did you spit on your first wife?"
Later Update: Charlottesville Daily Progress headlines "Law Student Causes Ruckus at Allen Campaign Event". I guess that's causing ruckus by getting tackled by three guys.
Even Later Update: Let's get some more eyewitness reports on just what happened. My understanding is that Stark asked Allen a question about material contained in his sealed divorce records. Allen's staffers proceeded to throw Stark to ground and tackle him, some of which is visible in the video above. Did Stark do anything that warranted assaulting him?
--Josh Marshall
Et tu, Trent? From Roll Call (sub. req.) ...
With leadership elections just two weeks away, Sen. Trent Lott (Miss.) appears to have begun a quiet campaign for the GOP Whip position in the 110th Congress should his ally, Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), fail to win re-election next Tuesday.
I like to avoid counting chickens before they're hatched. But I'm not stupid. As Atrios would say, Bye Rick.
--Josh Marshall
So Fred Barnes concedes that Dems are quite likely to take control of the House of Reps, but says they won't get enough seats for a "working governing majority."
Nice attempt to move the goal posts. But this doesn't cut it. Certainly it would be far better for the Democrats -- on several counts -- to rack up a decent margin. But let's be frank. President Bush has the veto pen. He'll probably, though the odds are maybe a little less as of today, have control over the senate. So it's a cop out on Barnes' part to pretend that any party is going to govern the country with a relatively small majority in one House of Congress.
Everyone knows what's at stake here: the end or the continuation of one-party rule in Washington.
--Josh Marshall
And there you have it. Four polls out in the last 24 hours showing Jim Webb ahead of George Allen by an average of roughly 4 points.
--Josh Marshall
The divine secrets of Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL).
A preview: did you know that Harris is a "wannabe" Jew?
--Paul Kiel
New CNN polls show Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri Senate races coming right down to the line.
--Paul Kiel
Ooh, that Burns: A GOP insider says if it weren't for all the free meals Jack Abramoff gave Sen. Conrad Burns' staffers, they would have "starved to death." That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Interesting article from the Journal about Republican claims that early voting returns show their machine and organizational muscle is paying off.
--Josh Marshall
Did Allen's gambit backfire?
Winning the Virginia senate race was always going to be a real challenge. And it still will be. But something seems to have happened over the last several days in the wake of the Allen campaign's literary dumpster diving.
Two polls came out today showing Webb ahead. One was a poll sponsored by Democrats that had Webb up 47% to 43%. This evening though CNN released a poll with a similar spread -- Webb 50%, Allen 46%. On top of that, another public poll is soon to be released which shows Webb ahead by a comparable margin.
These are very thin leads. But they are leads. And they become more significant when you look at the record of polling in this race over the last three months. Here is the list of public polls in the race going back to July.
We count 26 polls going back to July 24th. Before today only two of them had Webb in the lead. One was a Zogby poll from September 11th. But that was clearly an outlier. The other was from the 24th of this month. Now we have three polls coming out in a two day period with Webb on top.
It seems clear that there's movement in Webb's direction. And it seems to have shown up after the novel extracts imbroglio hit the airwaves. I'm not sure we can draw a correlation between the two things. Numbers can move rapidly in the last couple weeks of a campaign as the undecideds start to come off the fence and people finally start to tune into the races. But it at least suggests the book quotes haven't hurt him.
Webb may actually pull this off.
Late Update: I see now that Zogby has just put out an 'interactive' poll showing Webb up by four points. But I consider the methodology of Zogby's interactive polls questionable. His phone polls are another story.
--Josh Marshall
Get ready for the fangs and knives (WaPo) ...
President Bush said terrorists will win if Democrats win and impose their policies on Iraq, as he and Vice President Cheney escalated their rhetoric Monday in an effort to turn out Republican voters in next week's midterm elections.
The desperation will be ferocious. Imagine everything from the last six years rolled into one toxic week. An electoral gauntlet of hacking knives and fire. But, then, where did one party rule ever end serenely?
--Josh Marshall
Sign of the times? A North Carolina Republican in a supposedly safe district, refuses to tape a debate with her opponent unless reporters are barred from the event ...
U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-5th, is refusing to tape a debate with her opponent, Democrat Roger Sharpe, on Wednesday unless reporters are barred from the broadcast studio.Jim Longworth, the debate moderator, said yesterday that the congresswoman would not agree to the debate if reporters were there. The full debate is scheduled to be broadcast Nov. 5, two days before the general elections.
As far as I know there's been no public polling of that race.
--Josh Marshall
Just out from Charlie Cook ...
With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.
The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994. The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.
In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns). There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party's candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.
This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals. For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits. For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list. Finally, it would seem that voters of all ideological stripes feel that the GOP-lead Congress has become dysfunctional.
Feel the wave. Be the wave.
--Josh Marshall
Turns out that push-polling operation making calls in Maryland about 'medical research experiments on unborn babies' is operating in at least four other hotly-contested senate races.
--Josh Marshall
As you know, a long-standing Republican jab is to call the Democratic party, the 'Democrat' party. Silly and annoying. But there it is. So why is CNN now adopting it for their own news copy.
Here's the primer on their lead story ...
The link is to an AP story. And even on the substance, look at the domestic spin CNN gives to the story. What the story actually says is that while most Middle Eastern governments think the Bush administration has been a disaster, they are also wary of the Democrats -- not because they don't have "better answers" but because they're too close to Israel. Very different points.
--Josh Marshall
A good poll for Webb in Virginia today, though one sponsored by the Democrats. Another poll -- this one independent -- with a Webb lead will be released soon.
--Josh Marshall
I touched on this point this morning in the Daily Digest. But let me return to it because I think it's important.
All sorts of articles have been written over the last week or so with one question: Why is Karl Rove so confident? What does he know that the Dems and the pundit-predictors don't?
The answer is really, really simple: nothing. There's not anything he knows. In fact, he's not even confident. It's a bluff.
There are ten different reasons to know this. 
But the most compelling and sufficient one is to look at his history. In fact, go back to the second post I ever did on TPM just a couple weeks shy of six years ago. It was about a stunt Rove pulled that almost lost Bush the presidency in 2000.
Going into the big day the polls all showed a very, very close race, with perhaps ever so slight an edge for Bush. Conventional logic would have dictated sending Bush to swing states like Florida. But that's not what Rove did. He chose instead to send Bush to California and New Jersey -- states Bush could only have any hope of winning in a blow-out. The reasoning was simple. Rove figured that he could accomplish more through convincing mainly the press, but also activists and even highly-plugged voters, that Bush was going to win big than he would by sending his guy into a state like Florida for some last minute retail politicking.
It's the bandwagon effect. Psyche out the other side. Act like you're winning and you'll charge up your activists/voters and demoralize the folks on the other side. Mainly, get the press to believe your hype and they'll do the charging up and demoralizing for you. As it happened, it was a really dumb decision in 2000. If not for faulty ballots and election stealing, Bush would have lost Florida and the presidency. And given the margin, it's at least conceivable that Bush could have won fair and square had he spent the last few days on the ground in Florida.
Now, the situation right now is obviously very different than what Rove faced in 2000. They're on the defense. But all the same logics and principles apply. For the Republicans, the difference between a bad night on election night and a catastrophe could well turn on whether or not the party's ground troops really believe all the polls they're seeing. If they do, the demoralization will likely be crippling. And a bunch of them won't even show up. Rove has to create the impression that he knows something the polls don't to keep the Republican GOTV operation from breaking down entirely.
It's that simple.
Now, that doesn't mean I'm certain the Dems are going to walk away with it on election night. Far from it. Look at the numbers and I think the potential for a blow-out is definitely there. I'd call myself cautiously optimistic. But I'll go to sleep happy on election night if the Dems win the House even with a razor-thin margin. So my point is not to make anyone think this is all in the bag. It's not. It is only to get people to finally drop out of the Rove (anti-)cult and realize he's seeing the same thing everyone else is seeing. He's just putting on a game face because that's what he needs to do to do his job.
--Josh Marshall
More on that phony astroturf group in Pennsylvania.
Would you believe that a group called the Progressive Policy Council is represented by a man who was the Deputy General Counsel to Bush-Cheney '04? What are the odds?
--Paul Kiel
DSCC demands Virginia State Bar release Sen. George Allen's (R) Bar application. So is the Allen court records story newsworthy yet?
--Greg Sargent
Phony-baloney astroturf group sends mailer into Pennsylvania senate race.
--Josh Marshall
Finally. Some comic relief. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) is forming an exploratory committee to run for president.
Possible slogans: I managed to avoid getting indicted in the Cunningham probe. I can keep the country out of trouble too.
I hear Bob Ney may be making a few swings through New Hampshire too.
--Josh Marshall
The case of Rep. Jim Gibbons' (R-NV) alleged assault of a cocktail waitress gets even more curious.
--Paul Kiel
December Surprise? The House investigation of the Foley scandal is all but wrapped up. The report, however, won't be ready until after the elections. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
More on those push-poll calls about medical experiments on the unborn. Several TPM readers in Maryland have reported robocalls from Michael Steele's Senate campaign with a "poll" question along the lines of "do you believe that medical research should be allowed on unborn babies?"
TPM Reader PR, in Maryland:
I got the same "polling" call. It starts out asking who you are going to vote for, then has a series of questions, including the medical experiment question. Also asked whether you supported marriage as being between a man and a woman, do you want your taxes raised and then asks at the end, based on what you now know do you support Michael Steele. . . .
A slightly different version of the script is reported by TPM Reader JA:
After asking you who you're going to vote for, it asks "do you want your own taxes raised or lowered?" Then it tells you that Cardin has voted to raise your taxes and will do so again. It follows with "do you believe the words 'under God' should be in the pledge of allegiance?" It tells you Cardin voted to remove them, which I assume is false. Then it goes straight to the gutter and asks "do you support medical research experiments on unborn babies?" Of course, it then tells you Cardin is for this. It finishes by asking again who you're going to vote for.
At least one Maryland reader says his call did not include any reference to medical experiments on the unborn. Some reports we've gotten say the call was the Steele campaign; others say it was a group called "Common Sense Maryland." Still others say the sponsor was "Common Sense Ohio."
In Tennessee, TPM Reader LK reports that a group called "Common Sense Tennessee," which appears to be an outgrowth of "Common Sense Ohio," is making robocalls on behalf of Republican Bob Corker in the Senate race:
It starts off asking are you for Corker for for Ford, then it runs thru a list of push poll questions; not verbatim but the substance below: -- do you favor giving the same rights to terrorists as to americans? -- are you pro life? -- do you support the NRA and how it lets us have all the guns we want to? -- do you think we have a problem with illegal aliens? Asks again are you for Corker or for Ford.
A TPM reader in Virginia says that the George Allen campaign is using a a similar question in its push-poll calls: "Do you favor carrying out medical experiments on a dead fetus?"
Then there's TPM Reader LH:
Yes, there are other campaigns doing push polls asking that question. I have received a poll asking if I agreed with medical experiments on unborn babies. The call was in support of Dick DeVos. I live in Michigan's 2nd Congressional District. I simply told the woman that as a person living with Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma since the age of eight, I fully support medical experiments on cells that were artificially created in a lab for the sole purpose of curing disease and saving millions of lives. I also told her I personally found the pro-lifer's stance offensive because I am alive, and why do they think an artificially created lump of cells more important that me? My parent's were married for years before they had me. I WAS a planned pregnancy, my parent's created me naturally, just the way God intended. Why shouldn't I be saved? Why do they feel MY life is unimportant? I finished the call by informing her that my parent's love me, they have already lost one child to murder, real murder, the kind that involved a criminal investigation and would take serious umbrage with anyone who would want me to die too. I asked her why didn't she believe my parent's have suffered enough, why she felt my parent's need to lose another child and hung up the phone.
A lot of money is being spent on robocalls in these last days of the campaign, so keep us posted on what you're hearing.
--David Kurtz
LA Times: Even if Dems win both Houses, Rove will still have given "virtuoso" performance.
--David Kurtz
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pumps $1 million into race to knock off Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT).
--David Kurtz
Fields of Fire, one of James Webb's books that George Allen has been attacking as obscene, is actually on the Marine Corps' reading list for professional development.
--David Kurtz
The president declared himself confident that Republicans would sweep to victory and maintain their stranglehold on both houses of a Congress that's done nothing but rubberstamp Bush's war policies and Republican efforts to enrich their fat-cat donors and themselves, of course.If he's right and that's the result of the Nov. 7 elections, then the American people will finally have fulfilled H.L. Mencken's prophecy that we'd continue choosing the lowest common denominator until, in the end, we get precisely the government we deserve.
Meantime, Vice President Dick Cheney confirmed that some of the senior al-Qaeda terrorists in our custody have been subjected to "water-boarding," a torture that brings the victim within a hair of drowning and suffocation. Cheney declared that it was a "no-brainer." My thoughts exactly: Only people with no brains opt to torture a captive in violation of domestic and international law.
This unseemly circus and its clowns in Congress can't go away fast enough and with enough dishonor and disgrace to suit the circumstances. Their place in America's history is secure: They will go down as the worst administration and the worst Congress we've ever had. Period.
They deserve to lose both the House and the Senate on Nov. 7, and the White House in 2008. They bullied their way into a war that they thought would be a slam-dunk and then so bungled things that the only superpower left in the world has been humbled and hobbled in a world that they've made more dangerous for us.
Thanks, guys. You've done a heckuva job. We won't forget it.
That about sums it up.
--David Kurtz
Ha. A slap in the face from Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-Big Money) ...
Fun viewing. And a lot of fun for Dems if that race isn't decided by the time polls close on Tuesday.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader RC, in Maryland:
Just got off the phone from a push poll for Michael Steele. My favorite question was (paraphrasing) "Do you favor carrying out medical experiments on unborn babies?" A close second was "Do you want to have your taxes raised?"
Anyone else hearing the "medical experiments on unborn babies" charge?
--David Kurtz
