The New York Times has a Sunday piece ostensibly about Democratic plans to restore the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, but the piece serves as a good overall roadmap for Democratic oversight priorities. Oversight. Remember that?
--David Kurtz
Let me use this post to take care of a few bits of TPM housekeeping.
First, a couple months ago, I introduced TPM Reader DK and explained why, for the time being, he needed to remain anonymous. As I wrote then, DK was a lawyer at a law firm in the midwest. And frankly commenting on the politics of the day under his own name just wasn't compatible with the day job.
A few weeks ago, however, DK's professional situation has changed. And he and I are both glad he can start blogging here under his own name: David Kurtz. You'll see him now blogging with the new byline. And he'll probably say about more on this on his own.
Second, we kept our collective TPM nose to the grindstone pre-election. But we've got major expansion plans that, if all goes according to plan, we'll be rolling out over the next couple months. You've probably seen how TPM has evolved other the last year. So we'll be building on that. The proprietor in a case like this is supposed to say how he or she is really excited about all the new stuff coming. But, no, really, I'm really excited about the new stuff we have in store for you. So keep your eyes open for updates on that front.
Finally, I've got some family matters to attend to. You'll see my byline showing up on a fair number of posts here at TPM. But over the next two weeks there will likely be a few stretches of time when I'm just not available at all. So when I'm away the rest of the TPM team -- Paul, Justin, Greg, David et al. -- will fill the gap.
--Josh Marshall
From the department of aggressive spin ...
Although some glitz has come off Mr Rove, Republicans have been more eager to blame botched campaigns and individual ethics scandals. “Bob Sherwood’s seat [in Pennsylvania] would have been overwhelmingly ours, if his mistress hadn’t whined about being throttled,” said Mr Norquist. Any lessons from the campaign? “Yes. The lesson should be, don’t throttle mistresses.”
I guess it would at least be a start.
--Josh Marshall
Kevin Drum has set about busting some of the exit poll myths that have already stuck themselves like barnacles to the midterm election results. Here's the CliffsNotes version:
Myth #1: It was the youth vote that pushed Democrats over the top.Myth #2: Democrats won a third of the white evangelical vote.
Myth #3: Democrats won by running conservative candidates.
Myth #2 is the one that gets me. Kevin says he has no idea where that one came from, which at first struck me as odd because the one-third figure has been widely reported, including here at TPM, based on an AP story the evening of Election Day.
But look at the key paragraph in the AP piece:
Those early exit polls also showed that three in four voters said corruption was very important to their vote, and they tended to vote Democratic. In a sign of a dispirited GOP base, most white evangelicals said corruption was very important to their vote — and almost a third of them turned to the Democrats.
I, too, first read that as saying one-third of evangelicals voted Democratic. But what I think it's actually saying is that one-third of those evangelicals who said corruption was very important to their vote went for the Democrats.
Mystery solved? Kevin's entire post is here.
--David Kurtz
Back to business:
Federal investigators have resumed their inquiry into a rental deal between U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and a nonprofit agency, issuing new subpoenas in the days after he was elected to a full six-year term, according to a government source.
--David Kurtz
You get the sense from the GOP that in its analysis of the election results the congressional seats lost due to Republican ties to public corruption shouldn't really count. Sort of like losing the game not because you got beat but because the refs made a bad call.
I think most people would view bribery, influence peddling, and sexually predatory congressmen as substantive problems, not mere technicalities. Maybe that's just me.
For its part, the White House would like to portray the corruption issue as a congressional problem. In his press conference, the President said, "People want their Congress -- congressmen to be honest and ethical." (That comment came just after the point in the press conference where he acknowledged deliberately misleading reporters the week before when he said he intended to keep Don Rumsfeld on after the election.)
For his part, Karl Rove was surprised by the significance of corruption in the election outcome:
"The profile of corruption in the exit polls was bigger than I'd expected," Rove tells TIME. "Abramoff, lobbying, Foley and Haggard [the disgraced evangelical leader] added to the general distaste that people have for all things Washington, and it just reached critical mass."
One can forgive Rove his surprise. He was too close to the problem to see it for what it was. Funny how he describes it now like a detached observer of the passing scene, with the perspective of a political scientist. Let's take this apart, starting with Rove's old buddy Jack Abramoff.
By one account Rove arranged to meet Abramoff on DC street corners so as to avoid being detected by the White House visitors logs. Rove hired his former personal assistant, Susan Ralston, away from Abramoff, and just a month before the election she was forced to resign her White House position due to her contacts with Abramoff while at the White House. A congressional committee found evidence of 485 contacts between the White House and Abramoff and his lobbying team.
Foley, you may recall, was strong-armed by Rove into running for re-election, with Rove threatening to torpedo Foley's plans to start a lobbying practice after leaving Congress unless he ran again in 2006. (No evidence has emerged that Rove or the White House had any knowledge of Foley's page problem at that time.) Haggard, as is now widely known, was one of Rove's main contacts within the evangelical community, a regular participant in weekly conference calls with the White House political shop headed up by Rove.
And we've just begun to scratch the surface. There's Rove's involvement in the Plame scandal, and the RNC's involvement in the New Hampshire phone-jamming case. I could go on, but I think the point here is clear: Rove was and is the architect of a political machine that was probably corrupt from its inception and is certainly corrupt now.
The corruption manifests itself in everything from bribery (Duke Cunningham and Bob Ney) to influence-peddling (Abramoff) to the broader corruption of traditional conservative principles (budget earmarks and deficit spending).
That's not a lesson Republicans seem to be taking from this election.
--David Kurtz
For our older readers, from TPM Reader PS:
Was anyone besides me delighted to note that the last two Republican senators to concede were Burns and Allen?Say goodnight, Gracie.
As an aside, when I was waiting tables in college, I once had the pleasure of serving George Burns a martini. Something I'll never forget.
--David Kurtz
Meanwhile, back in Pakistan:
Two months ago, Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, triumphantly announced a peace pact with Islamic extremists in the North Waziristan tribal district near the Afghan border, saying he hoped it would become a model for curbing domestic Islamic militancy and cross-border insurgent attacks in Afghanistan.Today that model lies in shreds. Northwestern Pakistan's fragile political peace has been shattered by two devastating attacks: a government missile strike that killed 82 people at an Islamic school in the Bajaur tribal district on Oct. 30, and a retaliatory suicide bombing Wednesday that killed 42 army recruits at a training camp in the Malakand tribal district.
. . .
"This is a disaster. We all recognize the gravity of the situation," said a senior military official in this northwestern provincial capital, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It's a nightmare to have an army being attacked on its own soil and by its own people." After the two incidents, he added, "the doors to peaceful negotiated settlements are closed. I am afraid we are on a war course in the tribal areas."
If you didn't see the Frontline documentary last month on the tribal areas and the internal tensions in Pakistan, you can watch it online.
--David Kurtz
A helpful reminder from TPM Reader MR:
Nice post . . . regarding Rove's . . . last minute PR maneuvering in Michigan, MD, & NJ (ie, your reminder about his near-disaster victory lap in the last days of election 2000). As it turned out you were right on the button, and one has to laugh out loud at the thought that the boy genius threw $$ down the toilet in those three states that could've been very helpful to repubs elsewhere.
Here's the post Josh did last week about Rove sending Bush to California instead of Florida on the last day of the 2000 campaign, a cocky move designed to project confidence that nearly cost Bush the presidency.
You do have to wonder whether Sens. Burns and Allen might have made up their narrow margins of defeat if some of the millions of dollars spent by the national GOP to "enlarge" the playing field for control of the Senate had instead been spent in Montana and Virginia, respectively.
Just goes to show that it's easy to be dubbed a genius so long as you win.
--David Kurtz
For those readers who've written in asking us not to forget about the Republicans' vast robo calling operation in the lead up to the election -- don't worry, we haven't.
Take a look at this, for instance. On Election Day, there were seven very near misses for Democratic candidates in districts that had been bombarded by the harrassing calls. Were the calls the difference?
--Paul Kiel
After the Democrats campaigned to end corruption in Washington, you'd think they would try to promote only squeaky-clean members to fill powerful posts, wouldn't you? Think again.
--Justin Rood
As Atrios points out here, Jon Tester is 'conservative' only if you a) judge political philosophy by indicators as profound as haircuts or b) if your mindset is ruled by cartoonish GOP strawmen. But both apply to most of the chatmeisters, so I guess he's a conservative.
--Josh Marshall
I'm wondering how President Bush is digging all these 'Bush Turns to Pop's Advisors' headlines. We were just chatting here at TPM about what we think of the Gates' nomination. And there are definitely real questions about his record in the 1980s as well as whether his nomination represents a genuine policy change or a time-buying personnel reshuffle. Speaking for myself, it seems like an undeniable step forward simply to be dealing with someone whose past performance and current policy views suggests they are operating in the reality-based universe -- a clear departure from the last six years. It takes a moment of stepping back to take stock of just how clinical our foreign policy has been -- both in concept and execution -- for the first years of this young century.
--Josh Marshall
Meet the new boss...
The Washington Times is reporting that Michael Steele has been asked to be the next Chair of the RNC. Yeah, this guy.
Update: Another reminder about Steele's fitness - the "scarlet letter" incident.
--Paul Kiel
Will Rummy face war crimes charges? That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Did the 'white lie' polling phenomenon help overstate Michael Steele's support in the Maryland senate race.
--Josh Marshall
Tuesday wasn't the first time that Michael Steele had tried to use homeless people to mislead African-American voters.
His campaign did the same thing back in 2002.
--Paul Kiel
So what do you think about the race for Majority Leader? Hoyer v. Murtha? Thoughts? Opinions?
--Josh Marshall
Former Clinton advisor Jeremy Rosner on the Dems' challenge of locking in their gains on national security.
--Paul Kiel
What kind of world do we live in where $9 million can't buy an election?
Swiftboat money man Bob Perry sure did his best this year. But his best just wasn't good enough.
--Paul Kiel
Here's an article or group of articles I'm looking forward to reading. What about the GOP's 29th century, info-gizmofied GOTV system?
My general takeaway from Tuesday is that the Republicans got their vote out. The Dems did too. But then the independents broke overwhelmingly for the Dems.
But I still want to get back to the turnout machine. I've always wondered just how much there was there or whether it was just more of the Bush-Rove confidence mumbojumbo that's had the DC types in its thrall.
Anyone see any good write-ups on this?
--Josh Marshall
National GOP strategists to Washington Post: Blame our loss on the candidates, please.
--Greg Sargent
Here's our rundown of the 10 House seats still undecided. As it stands now, the Dems would get two more seats, and the Republicans probably eight. But that all depends, of course, on how these recounts go.
--Paul Kiel
Some thoughts from Greg Sargent about what Tuesday's results mean for the battles ahead over national security.
--Paul Kiel
Let's not forget about what was probably the most despicable episode on Election Day. Especially as Michael Steele makes a bid for RNC Chairman.
--Paul Kiel
Amazing how bad a campaign the Democrats ended up running, wasn't it? No message, no new ideas? No taking any stands. Another hapless gambit from the gang that couldn't shoot straight.
Oh, wait, right, they crushed the GOP House majority and won control of the senate (by election rather than defection) for the first time in 12 years.
My point here isn't to gloat on the Dems' behalf. And political chatmeisters do routinely impute genius to campaign victories and vice versa. But over the last six+ years, as the capital has fallen under the spell of the Bush-Rove confidence cult, opinions about the Democrats have become particularly fouled by fatuous circular reasoning. And same with the Bush-Rove GOP.
Victory is its own defense. The Republicans won the 2004 election. But only just barely. Not through any particular genius. And, I suspect we'll learn, much less through micro-targetting and data-mining mumbo-jumbo than we'd been led to believe.
The Rumsfeld defenestration justly dominated the news cycle yesterday. But beyond the numbers and policy changes a lot of things are going to need to be rethought in Washington now. A lot of people's conceptual meal tickets just expired.
--Josh Marshall
The recount battle in Florida's 13th District (Katherine Harris' old district) continues to heat up.
An analysis by a local paper on the voting irregularities there shows that the problems likely cost the Democrat the race.
--Paul Kiel
Rep. Sue Kelly (R-NY) lawyers up.
Nowadays when you hear those words about a Republican, it usually means the indictments are soon to follow. But not here. She's looking to challenge her defeat on Tuesday.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Jim Webb to hold a press conference this afternoon to declare victory over George Allen in the Virginia Senate race. Location and time to be announced.
Allen is expected to say something today, too, after the recanvassing of the vote is finished, in "mid to late afternoon," his adviser says.
Meanwhile, the attendants at Webb's campaign are answering the phone with, "Good morning, office of Senator-elect Webb."
--Greg Sargent
Hey, you mucked-up lawmaker: you might have been voted out of Congress, but you're still gonna be in hot water with the Feds. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Do you like TPM? Would you like to work with us?
We're hiring a DC-based reporter-blogger for a new site we're launching. We are looking for someone who is funny, clever, interested in writing and reporting about politics and the people involved in politics in innovative ways. Journalism experience is a big plus but not an absolute necessity. Most of all I'm looking for someone who can look at what's going on down there with a fresh set of eyes.
TPM Media is a small but rapidly growing company. We work really hard. But we have a lot of fun doing what we do. The salaries are somewhere between reasonable and decent and come with benefits. And the boss is ... let's say, tolerable.
I'm dying to find exactly the right person for this new project. And if it's you, I really want to hear from you. If you're interested, send us an email at the comments address up there on the right. Use the subject heading "TPM Job." Include a resume, names of two references, and a letter explaining why you're interested in the gig, your background or frankly whatever else you think would be helpful for us to know.
--Josh Marshall
Anybody have any entries for the least gracious, most churlish concession speech Tuesday night?
I'm nominating outgoing Rep. Melissa Hart (R-PA). Asked why she got taken down by Jason Altmire, Hart said it was Altmire's horrible negative campaigning ...
“I was not going to play the games. Unfortunately I think that took a toll. In retrospect, I had everyone in Washington, D.C., significant number of my colleagues, call me and say you need to cut his legs off, was the term they used,” Hart said. “And you know what, you don’t need to cut his legs off. He clearly did that his entire campaign, he’s new at this, I that hope he doesn’t do it the next time.”
That's nice.
I actually didn't get the impression this was even a particularly nasty campaign.
Hart, remember, was one of the rubberstamps Hastert and DeLay stacked the Ethics Committee with after they purged the committee early last year.
--Josh Marshall
Okay, it's over. Pretty clear Sen. Allen's (R) going to give up the electoral ghost tomorrow. So it's Senator-elect Webb (D). And it's Majority Leader-to-be Reid (D).
--Josh Marshall
100% of precincts in King County reporting, Darcy Burner is up by about a thousand votes over Rep. Reichert (R) out in WA-8. Overall, it's still Reichert up 51% to 49%.
(ed.note: Thanks to TPM Reader GT for the tip.)
Late Update: The original version of this post incorrectly reported the King County numbers as the numbers for the whole 8th district. Not so.
--Josh Marshall
Will George Allen cave?
Conservative blog Redstate.com calls on Allen not to seek a recount in hard-fought Virginia Senate race.
--Greg Sargent
So here's one question: where do they put the key they just used to lock Dick Cheney back up in that undisclosed location?
--Josh Marshall
George Allen's trailing by about 7,000 votes -- quite a margin to make up in a recount. And it seems that's something the Allen camp has realized.
They say they're still not sure whether they'll call for a recount.
--Paul Kiel
It was a bloodbath for mucked-up candidates last night. Justin Rood gives our tribute to the fallen.
--Paul Kiel
I'm not afraid to say it. At first, the president seemed hesitant and a bit shell-shocked. But then he hit a stride. And all things considered, I think he did reasonably well in that presser. Talk's cheap. And I don't think a leopard changes his spots. But judged on its own terms I think he did reasonably well.
Also, here's the big story: Bob Gates is very much Daddy's guy.
Late Update: TPM Reader JS sees it a bit differently: "Josh, get some sleep that was a meltdown."
--Josh Marshall
Watching this Bush presser, one thing about Republicans: man, they dispatch their dead quickly, don't they? I thought the most revealing line so far of the press conference was when Bush said he still hasn't spoken to Rumsfeld or Gates. The exact phrase was something like 'final conversation'. But I think the meaning there was clear.
Late Update: Okay, I think this presser may actually set a record for open and shut contradictions. But about five minutes after saying he hadn't had his final convos, he just said that he had. In the course of the last few minutes he's also said both that he hadn't decided to replace Rummy pre-election, and that he had. I think he also said he lied to the reporters in the pre-election conversation he had on Rumsfeld.
Later Update: I haven't seen the transcript yet. But a number of readers have written in to say that they think I may have misheard some of the passages in the president's remarks about final conversations and who talked to whom when.
--Josh Marshall
Donald Rumsfeld resigning, according to the AP.
Update: Bush just announced that Robert Gates, the CIA Director under Bush 41, will replace Rumsfeld.
--Paul Kiel
Our TPM intern Eric Kleefeld just pointed out to me that if Joe Courtney's lead holds up in Connecticut 2nd, this election will leave just one Republican congressman in all New England. That's a watershed.
--Josh Marshall
Let's go ahead and pop this balloon before it takes flight.
Ken Mehlman, this morning on Today:
"[W]hen it comes to both the House and the Senate, we obviously always knew this would be a tough year. We had a combination of, not only the fact that it's the 6th year of the President's term, where typically you lose more than 30 seats. Also the nation's at war, where typically you lose seats, as Tim [Russert] pointed out last night. And the fact that a number of members unfortunately were involved in scandal.
Typically lose more than 30 seats? You might guess that Mehlman was not challenged by the Today hosts on this little flight of expectation-lowering fantasy. And it appears to be one of the GOP's morning-after talking points.
Here are the number of House seats lost by the President's party in the 6th year of his presidency during the post-war period. I pulled the numbers from the House website and quickly did the math:
1958: Eisenhower--Republicans lost 48 seats
1986: Reagan--Republicans lost 5 seats
1998: Clinton--Democrats gained 5 seats
So only once in the last half century has the President's party lost more than 30 seats in the second-term midterms.
The 1974 midterms, in which the Republicans lost 48 House seats in the aftermath of Watergate, occurred after Nixon resigned.
Of course, if Mehlman wants to compare the sea-change that followed the dark period of Watergate to the sea-change that occurred yesterday, I have no objections. Quite an apt comparison in many ways.
--David Kurtz
Here's what the Democrats are saying about what to expect in the coming days as the votes are counted in Virginia and Montana.
Update: Election Central has a primer on how recounts work in the two states.
--Paul Kiel
So George Allen has Ed Gillespie to help him try to steal the Virginia election. But seriously, read this post from last night.
And let's also take a look at those voter suppression activities the Allen campaign pulled yesterday, the ones the Feds are already looking at.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader CC ...
Following up on another reader's comments on how the MSM has totally absorbed the right's framing of the political conversation:Very frustrating to watch Russert et al. on the morning shows and to hear all the "what ifs" about Democrats in the house turning the place into a circus of hearings, subpoenas, etc. and the prospective difficulties of working with ultraliberal wackadoo Nancy Pelosi.
Why isn't this news presented for what it is -- a blunt rejection of the president, his party, and their conduct of the last few years.
Voters are saying they want accountability and answers to very important questions on Iraq and a host of other issues, something they have been unjustly denied by Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Rice, and co.
If it takes subpoenas to get that accountability and those answers, so be it.
At the moment, I'm going on just a few hours sleep. So a detailed post just isn't in me. But a lot of the names in DC have built their reputations, meal tickets and most importantly their world view around the Republicans. I mean, Mark Halperin needs someone to abase himself to, right? Don't expect that to change overnight. That's a battle to be engaged.
--Josh Marshall
Recount battle brewing in Florida's 13th District. Yes, that's Katherine Harris' district.
--Paul Kiel
Just a note -- we'll be continuing to update our scoreboard throughout the day with the latest results.
As of right now, in addition to the two Senate races, we have 13 House seats that either haven't been called, are going to a recount, or are headed to a runoff.
--Paul Kiel
From The LA Times:
White House allies suggest there is little reason to think Bush and the Democrats will work together. Bush has tied himself closely to conservative movement leaders who bitterly disagree with Democrats for their opposition to tax cuts and to privatizing Social Security — two of the administration's top goals."When we want to go up and they want to go down, we want to go right and they want to go left, there's no compromise," said anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, a close advisor to the White House.
Norquist said the Republicans' primary goal for the next two years should be making the case for GOP control — not bipartisanship.
"Nancy Pelosi will do for the Republicans what [Bill] Clinton did for the Republicans — become the lightning rod to explain that their congressman who they thought was a reasonable guy was really a left-wing wacko," he said.
--Paul Kiel
Want to know whether the Dems will control the Senate? Check back next month.
--Greg Sargent
New numbers out of Montana this morning: With 99% of precincts reporting, Dem Jon Tester's lead over GOP Senator Conrad Burns has now edged up to a total of 1,586 votes.
--Greg Sargent
For a cocky guy who I don't imagine has ever had to sit still for a serious rebuke in his life, I'm really wondering what the take-away is going to be from the press conference he has called for tomorrow at 1 PM. At some level, I think they just want to get him back in front of the cameras quickly, the way a boxer snaps back to his feet when he gets knocked down, just to show he's still in the fight, back in his opponent's face.
But what do you think he'll do?
My best guess is he comes in with a group of his father's cronies, announces that these gents have formed a business consortium and that he's selling them the country.
How about you?
--Josh Marshall
I really gave him a hard time in early 2005. But a big congrats to Harold Ford (D-TN). Tennessee's a really red state. And let's not sidestep the issue: He's a black man running for senate in a southern state. That's a tall order on both counts. He didn't win. But he ran a kick-ass campaign. And he only lost by a couple percentage points. The word going into tonight was that support for Ford had collapsed over the last week and Corker was going to have a solid win.
And let's not let the gauziness of the moment paper over the fact that Corker ran a disgusting race. The guy is a blight on the senate.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader EF has their number ...
Republicans' control over our national political narrative cannot be overstated. I can't count the number of times a candidate who wasn't an effete urban sissy was described as being "different that the typical Democrat." Tester, Shuler, Ellsworth, McCaskill, etc., etc. The media has so completely adopted the GOP's cultural frame it's hard to even see it for what it is. We will be running uphill until we address this.
So true. I think Candy Crowley was maybe the worst offender. But, hey, we had CNN on at the office.
--Josh Marshall
Okay, Webb's putting some real numbers on the board now. The margin is up to just under 12,000 votes. That's a steep hill to climb in a recount.
--Josh Marshall
Dems two seats away from controlling the Senate? CNN calls the Missouri Senate race for Democrat Claire McCaskill.
--Greg Sargent
In the post below, TPM Reader DH is right. But get on this. It looks like Virginia will decide the senate. Karl Rove has turned races like this around before. You don't know the lengths they'll go to. Believe me, you're not being imaginative enough.
Check out Josh Green's article on Karl Rove from two years ago. Look what Rove pulled off in the disputed Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice race. Read it.
Get ready for the bogus headlines on Drudge. The rumors and innuendo. Live boys and dead girls. Like I said, your imagination will only get you maybe half the way there. Get ready.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader DH on the Virginia senate race and probable recount ...
The Republicans have backed themselves into a corner in Virginia. If you're going to go to the mat with dirty tricks and voter suppression, your counting on staying under the rader and that once the election is over, folks will move on. If Allen contests the results of the election it changes the election from a single day event into a 3 or 4 week event, plenty of time to chase down those callerid numbers and phone bank contractors. Virginia isn't Ohio. It doesn't have Ken Blackwell to cover up the GOP shenanigans, and the state has already requested the FBI to look into them. The Allen campaign is going to have to make the choice of whether contesting the results is worth the chance of exposing criminal activity. Let's hope they choose to contest. It's our best hope of fully exposing the shenanigans of the GOP to the light of day and getting the mechanisms in place to prevent their use in the next election cycle.
Good point.
--Josh Marshall
More fun than the last two elections.
Late Update: Come to think of it. Make that the last three.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Senate candidate Jim Webb on CNN declaring victory before his supporters:
"I apppreciated what Senator Allen not long ago said when he came on the news and said, `We all need to respect the process in this country, the Democratic process.' We all go out, we vote, we argue, we vote, but also I'd like to say the votes are in. And we won."
Webb is leading 49.43%-49.36% with 99.47% precincts reporting.
--Greg Sargent
Is Rep. Pombo (R-CA) going to be another Abramoff victim?
McNerney (D) 49.3%, Pombo (R) 50.7%, with 31% of the votes counted.
That'd be a satisfying win.
Late Update: Ha. Looks like I had those numbers transposed. It's McNerney with the slightly higher number. Even better.
--Josh Marshall
With 76% reporting, Democrat Claire McCaskill has emerged with a very narrrow lead over Sen Jim Talent. Most of the late vote in Missouri breaks for the Democrat, so you would expect to see McCaskill stretching that lead as the night wears on. But no guarantees.
Late Update: CNN was reporting on its website a very narrow McCaskill lead, but the latest numbers--with just 71% reporting--show Talent up by 3 percentage points.
Later update: McCaskill back on top. With 80% reporting, she leads 49-48.
--David Kurtz
It's interesting. It didn't always show up in an obvious way in the polls. But I always thought the corruption issue had a pervasive, atmosphere effect, pulling down the Republicans and particularly the GOP Congress. At least the exit polls seem to show that that was true. Makes me really happy we launched Muckraker earlier this year.
I'll be curious to see how that conversation goes over the coming days, what the conventional wisdom becomes on the relative weight of Iraq, Bush and the corruption issue in ending the Republican majority in the House.
What do you think?
--Josh Marshall
The White House strategy for going forward is pretty apparent from this Reuters dispatch:
President George W. Bush, disappointed at the Democrats' seizure of the House of Representatives, will hold a news conference on Wednesday to urge his opponents to work with him, the White House said.The news conference was set for 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT).
White House spokesman Tony Snow said the outcome of the elections, in which Democrats were projected to win control of the House and pick up several Senate seats, was "not what we would've hoped."
"But it also gets us to a point: Democrats have spent a lot of time complaining about what the president has done. This is an opportunity for them to kind of stand up," Snow said.
No concessions. No retreat. No surrender.
There will be much more to say about this in the coming hours and days, but it's not a bad time, even as the Senate remains in the balance, to emphasize a point we have made here from time to time during this campaign.
The election marks a beginning more than an end. Savor the moment tonight. But there is much to be done and no time to linger. Plans must be implemented. More battles waged. Our opponents have been planning for this moment for many months. They are ready. We must be, too.
--David Kurtz
The two Georgia House districts which have been fiercely contested are still too close to call. Both Democratic incumbents, Marshall and Barrow, hold small leads with most of the votes counted.
--David Kurtz
Karl Rove formally told the President tonight that the House had gone to the Democrats, Reuters reports.
To have been a fly on that wall.
--David Kurtz
Wow, with 99% of the votes in Jim Webb has just pulled ahead of Allen by the tiniest amount.
--Josh Marshall
I've got to say, I'm loving living in New York. One of the best decisions I ever made. I think TPM is better written from outside DC.
But I'm sitting here watching the Dem rallies right now in DC. Rahm's speaking. I'm envying you guys. It's got to be a sweet night.
--Josh Marshall
Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean holds on to her seat in the Illinois-8th, CNN projects.
--David Kurtz
On Rep. John Sweeney's (R) defeat, remember, he was "Shut 'em Down" Sweeney during the 2000 Florida recount, the guy leading the 'Republican riot' in Miami-Dade.
--Josh Marshall
CNN calls House for the Dems.
A lot of folks have waited a long time for this. Savor it.
And watch the latest returns here. A lot of apples still left to drop.
--Josh Marshall
Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT) goes down in defeat to Democrat Chris Murphy, CNN projects.
--David Kurtz
Three more GOP seats lost. Magic number down to 5 for the Democrats to control the House.
Republican Joe Negron is conceding GOPer Mark Foley's old seat, the Florida-16.
Rep. Charles Taylor (R-NC) has lost his seat to Heath Shuler, based on CNN's projection.
Don Sherwood (R-NY) is also projected to lose by CNN and FOX.
--David Kurtz
Another one bites the dust.
Rep. Curt Weldon, the embattled Republican from Pennsylvania under federal criminal investigation, goes down to retired Admiral Joe Sestak, based on CNN's projection.
--David Kurtz
The Senate races in Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri--the GOP's firewall--remain too close to call.
--David Kurtz
The GOP has lost two more House seats, bringing the Dems magic number down to 9, if network and cable news projections are correct.
In the New Hampshire-02, Democrat Paul Hodes knocks off Rep. Charlie Bass.
And in the Ohio-18, the seat just vacated by convicted felon Bob Ney goes to Democrat Zack Space over Republican Joy Padgett.
--David Kurtz
Democrat Tim Mahoney has a slim lead over Republican Joe Negron in the Florida-16, with 59% reporting. Again, that's the Mark Foley seat that the Republicans had seemed to write off immediately after Foley's resignation.
--David Kurtz
Make that 11 House seats to go for the Dems.
Baron Hill has knocked off Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel in the Indiana-09, FOX projects.
--David Kurtz
GOP incumbent Ron Lewis holds on for re-election in the KY-02, as projected by CNN.
--David Kurtz
In the House:
Republicans lose KY-03 (Northup), IN-08 (Hostettler), and IN-02 (Chocola).
Dems need 12 more to take control of the House.
--David Kurtz
In the 3 closely watched House races in Connecticut, Republicans Simmons and Shays hold early leads along with Democrat Murphy. Still very early.
--David Kurtz
Now, that is satisfying.
Rep. Chris "the Count" Chocola (R-IN) goes down to crashing defeat in Indiana.
The moral balancing of the universe just notched back a bit in the right direction.
--Josh Marshall
In the Senate:
Republicans lose Ohio, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania.
Democrats retain New Jersey, Maryland, and Minnesota.
3 down.
3 to go.
--David Kurtz
In another flip, Lincoln Chafee goes down in Rhode Island, according to CNN, losing to Sheldon Whitehouse after the White House propped up Chafee in the GOP primary.
--David Kurtz
The Kentucky 3rd goes to Democrat Yarmuth over incumbent Republican Anne Northup. That's another pick-up for the Democrats.
In Vermont, Democrat Peter Welch defeats Republican Martha Rainville for Bernie Sanders open House seat.
--David Kurtz
In the important Maryland Senate race, NBC is calling it for Democrat Ben Cardin over Republican Michael Steele.
The GOP had hopes that it could swipe the NJ or Maryland seats.
The Dems have held.
--David Kurtz
Joe Lieberman defeats Ned Lamont, CNN says.
Will Lieberman occupy a crucial pivot point in a closely divided Senate? Just one of many questions yet to be resolved this evening.
--David Kurtz
The Minnesota Senate seat is projected by CNN to go to Democrat Amy Klobuchar over GOPer Mark Kennedy.
--David Kurtz
As of approximately 9 pm EST, there is a net gain of 2 Senate seats and 1 House seat for the Democrats.
--David Kurtz
NBC calls the Pennsylvania Senate race. Bob Casey defeats Rick Santorum.
PA and Ohio flip.
NJ holds.
2 down
4 to go.
--David Kurtz
In the first Senate seat to flip tonight, CNN calls Ohio for Sherrod Brown over Mike DeWine.
--David Kurtz
With 19% reporting, Republican Joe "My Name is Not on the Ballot" Negron still has a small but discernible lead over Democrat Mahoney in the Florida 16th.
--David Kurtz
In Florida 13th, Democrat Christine Jennings trails Republican Vern Buchanan 54-46 with 38% reporting.
--David Kurtz
Menendez hangs on in New Jersey, according to CNN's projection. One of the Democratic seats at risk is preserved.
--David Kurtz
There you have it. With Ellsworth's victory, you have the first House seat flipped from GOP to Democrat.
--David Kurtz
Fox and CNN project Ellsworth as the winner over Hostettler in the Indiana 8th. Looks like a blowout in what was a very exepensive race in southwest Indiana.
--David Kurtz
CNN projects Nelson to win re-election over Katherine Harris in Florida Senate race.
Much sobbing and rending of garments at TPM.
--David Kurtz
As expected, Democrat Ellsworth is pulling away from longtime GOP incumbent Hostettler in the Indiana 8th.
--David Kurtz
In the race to replace Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL), Republican Joe Negron is holding his own in early returns, despite not having his name on the ballot.
--David Kurtz
In Indiana, Dem Joe Donnelly takes a lead over GOP Rep. Chris “the count” Chocola, 59%-41%, with 26% precincts reporting.
--Greg Sargent
In early returns, the U.S. Senate race in Virginia is neck and neck.
8:03 EST: Webb up 50-49 with 23% reporting.
--David Kurtz
The night's first GOP upset in the House is brewing in the KY-03, where Yarmuth is edging Northup 50%-49% with 68% of precincts reporting.
7:56 EST: Yarmuth edges further ahead, 50-48, with 78% reporting.
--David Kurtz
CNN calls Ohio governorship for Democrat Ted Strickland over Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell.
--David Kurtz
Jim Webb leading among women, according to exit polls, despite attacks by George Allen.
--David Kurtz
The New Republic is posting what purport to be exit polls on the key Senate races.
Caveat emptor, etc.
Update: Washington Monthly has the same numbers (and same source?) here.
--David Kurtz
ABC's preliminary exit poll results show strong majorities disapprove of President Bush and the Iraq War.
--David Kurtz
Okay, here we go.
As you can see in the section above, we're tallying the election results on our TPM Election Scoreboard. We'll have the toplines here at the top of TPM. And you can click over the main TPM Election Scoreboard page for real-time results of all the contested races.
Now, you'll see that there are already numbers up there on the board. 181 Democrats in the House and 157 Republicans. Where do we get that? Those are the races that CQ, Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg each agree are 'safe' seats. Those are the numbers we'll start with as already in the bank for each party. (Obviously, if there are surprises we'll recalibrate.) The numbers in play are the ones we're tracking on the main page.
--Josh Marshall
CNN's exit polls show corruption topping their list of issues of concern to voters.
Also polls show national issues motivating voters 2:1 over local issues.
--Paul Kiel
Hmmm. That was pretty disappointing. Ken Mehlman was just on Blitzer's show. And when Ken was asked about the Republicans' robocall scam, he ducked the question and then went on with a litany of accusations about the Democrats committed various kinds of election fraud this year and in 2004. As far as I could tell, Wolf let all of what he said stand uncontested.
--Josh Marshall
Despite delays, glitches, and other snafus, most polls will not extend voting hours.
In Denver, where the lines are long, the Democratic candidate for governor waited nearly two hours to vote, presumably for himself.
--David Kurtz
From the GOP handbook of Maryland politics:
(1) Recruit homeless men in Philadelphia;
(2) Bus them into Maryland;
(3) Arrange for the Republican governor's wife to greet them upon their arrival;
(4) Outfit them in hats and T-shirts for the governor's re-election campaign;
(5) Have them pass out flyers in heavily Democratic areas that erroneously identify the GOP candidates for governor and U.S. senator as "Democrats."
The complete primer here.
Update: A first-hand account here.
--David Kurtz
It's an epidemic. RNC Chair Ken Mehlman prefers paper ballots... and so does Bob Novak.
From TPM Reader TO:
I voted directly behind Bob Novak this morning in a small polling place on Capitol Hill. Novak immediately picked the paper ballot too. There was no line.
As with Mehlman, Novak had a choice between paper and an electronic machine.
--Paul Kiel
I think they call this blaming the messenger.
Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) lashes out at local paper for running a USA Today poll showing him down.
--Paul Kiel
Over at TPMMuckraker, Justin has an interview with a poll watcher in Arizona who reports that a trio of men--one with a firearm visible--are harrassing Hispanic voters at a polling station in Tuscon.
The poll watcher is a member of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund. The group has notified the Department of Justice and the FBI and were told by the feds--get this--to keep an eye on the situation.
--David Kurtz
Might this headline on CNN become a sort of epitaph for the Republican Majority?
Bonds rally on election bets: Market surges on hopes of fiscal discipline created by Democrat-controlled Congress; dollar mixed.
Yep.
--Josh Marshall
Over at Election Central we have charted all the races in which two of the big three ratings outfits--Cook Political Report, CQ Politics, and the Rothenberg Political Report--are in agreement on the likely outcome.
--David Kurtz
FBI investigating reports of voter intimidation in Democratic areas of Virginia.
--David Kurtz
Touchscreen voting problems in suburban St. Louis--a vote for McCaskill shows up as a vote for Talent.
--David Kurtz
Is George Allen in trouble? No one in DC would know, says Karl Rove, because everyone there relies on the "elitist" Washington Post for news. That and other new Rove-isms here.
--David Kurtz
How the other half votes, from TPM Reader DP:
I was directly behind RNC Chair Ken Mehlman this morning when I came out to vote. He lives up my street on Capitol Hill. When a poll worker asked whether he wanted to vote on an electronic machine or use a traditional pencil and paper ballot, he chose the latter.
So Mehlman won't drink from the poison cup? Actually, DP says the line for paper ballots was much shorter than for the electronic machines.
--David Kurtz
The Free Enterprise Fund is at it again. The Republican 527 group is running TV ads against Tammy Duckworth in the Illinois 6th urging viewers to call her home phone number. As we reported here a few days ago, the group was doing the same thing to Jon Tester in Montana.
--David Kurtz
MSNBC is using GOP superlawyer Ben Ginsberg--of Florida recount and Swift Boat Veterans for Truth fame (among others)--as its resident lawyer for its Election Day coverage.
The liberal media indeed.
--David Kurtz
Nice. The Connecticut state party is making calls promising voters that if you vote Republican, then they'll stop robo calls.
--Paul Kiel
So many phone calls about voting questions/problems in Columbus, Ohio, that the county's phone system crashed:
Franklin County's phone system was returned to service about 90 minutes after it collapsed today under a crush of calls from voters and poll workers.The volume of calls “overwhelmed the system,” Franklin County Elections Director Matthew Damschroder said.
Phones returned to normal about 9:30 a.m. The system also went down during the May 2 primary, delaying final returns until 2 a.m.
Damschroder said the system could not handle the quantity of calls from voters needing help to figure out where to vote and from poll workers needing help figuring out how to set up new electronic machines.
Polls opened at 6:30 today with relatively short lines but glitches at several polling places.
--David Kurtz
From Chicagoland, TPM Reader MS reports:
I live in Arlington Heights, IL, outside of Chicago. I'm in Mark Kirk's House District. This morning none of the electronic voting machines were working. Therefore the wait to vote was around 30 minutes, since they were using paper ballots.As an aside, on the table next to the election judges was a box of donuts from the Republican Party of Wheeling Township, thanking the election judges for their service. Democray (and bribery) in action!
If we're down to donuts, then Chicago ain't what it used to be.
--David Kurtz
When I woke up this morning, the first thing I did was to check whether there was any kind of last-minute election-altering surprise.
No Osama.
No bombing of Iran.
No military strike against North Korea.
The best Rove came up with was Saddam's death sentence, and with Iraq weighing Republicans down like concrete shoes the additional focus that story brought to Iraq was a mixed blessing.
For my part, I thought there was a better than even chance of U.S. bombing raids against Iran before the election. So--I'll say it---I was wrong.
But there is a long list of TPM readers who were absolutely, positively, without a doubt convinced that Rove had at least one more ace up his sleeve that would throw the election into chaos and to the GOP. I'm not talking about tactical tricks like the robocalls, but big, election-shifting tricks that consume all the air in the room. Didn't happen.
To be sure, the wizard is still behind the curtain furiously working the levers of power. Today we'll find out whether voters finally decide to pull back the curtain.
--David Kurtz
And from Sullivan County, Tennessee, where TPM Reader SJ tried to vote:
Went to my precinct to vote and all 3 machines were not working. This precinct has a lot of lower-income families and public housing. They finally got one of the machines going, but the lines were out the door - I waited close to an hour and had to get to work. I wasn't the only one - most of those leaving were young(er) working people more likely to vote Democratic. I'll be coming back later to vote, but how many of those that left will be able to do that? You would think the machines would have at least been tested and working before the actual election day.
We're not going to be able to post every anecdote like this that we receive today. It would be beside the point. We'll be looking for trends and patterns. But regardless of whether you subscribe to deep, dark conspiracy theories of GOP election trickery, voting should be easy, accurate, and fair. It's not. The system is broken.
--David Kurtz
From TPM Reader EL in Florida:
Just in case you're keeping tabs, I wanted to tell you that my wife tried to vote in our precinct in Tampa and was not on the list. After several tries to find out why, she was told that the voter database was "cleaned" and there must have been a mistake. I'm trying to find out who "cleaned" it.
We are keeping tabs.
--David Kurtz
Looks like Ohio is going to be interesting today. From TPM Reader JH:
Similar problems in Hamilton County to those reported in Summit County. Even though my partner changed his registration to our new address and even though he voted in the same precinct last election with no problem, because his driver's license had our old address, the pollworkers forced him to vote a provisional ballot. This precinct is smack dab in the middle of the congressional district where . . . Jean Schmidt should lose to Victoria Wulsin, but turnout will matter. The lines were long, with people standing in the rain, and the pollworkers seemed ill equipped to handle the process. Could be a long day in Ohio again.
And so it goes.
--David Kurtz
It was widely reported yesterday that Missouri's Democratic secretary of state had trouble voting absentee in the St. Louis area:
Secretary of State Robin Carnahan raised concerns about potential voter confusion in Tuesday's elections, citing her own experience casting an absentee ballot as an indication that some poll workers may wrongly be asking voters for a photo identification.Carnahan told The Associated Press on Monday that a worker at the St. Louis Election Board asked her three times to show a photo identification when she voted absentee last Friday - despite a Missouri Supreme Court ruling striking down the photo requirement.
We'll be keeping an eye today on whether this remains a problem in Missouri precincts, where the Talent-McCaskill race is too close to call.
--David Kurtz
Real-time reporting of election-related problems can be found here. Scroll down and click on the U.S. map. You will be able to view by state and county. Ohio jumps out already this morning with numerous reports of problems in the largest counties. The site seems to be getting a lot of traffic and is slow to load.
Late Update: The site has crashed.
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader AM checks in from Ohio:
Reporting from Summit County, where we use optical scan machines: my husband and I were in line at 6:30 a.m. when the polls opened so we were the 14th & 15th people in our precinct (8-C) to vote. Unfortunately, the optical scanner wouldn't accept any ballots. I hung around until 7:30 a.m. to see if they got it working and when I left it was still down. Of course, it took all 4 of the octogenarians staffing the precinct table to try to "fix" the problem so the line was backed up out the door & into the parking lot, where voters were treated to a light morning drizzle.Sure hope my vote gets counted. And I hope not too many people had to bail out of the line in order to make it to their jobs on time.
--David Kurtz
Doc, there's a ringing in my ears all night long. I think I've got a Republican in my district. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
Keeping the bloggers at bay:
Two-by-two, polling specialists from ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press will go into rooms in New York and Washington shortly before noon Tuesday. Their cellphones and BlackBerrys will be confiscated; proctors will monitor the doors; and for the next five hours, these experts will pore over exit-poll data from across the country.If all goes well, only when they emerge from their cloisters will the legions of ravenous political bloggers have any chance of getting their hands on the earliest indication of which party will end up controlling Congress.
Let's just remember folks that this is about protecting the value of their proprietary information, not some high-minded effort to prevent the misuse of the polling data. That's fine. No one is expected to reveal his or her scoop in advance (in this instance, literally before it's ready for primetime).
What remains ironic though is that it's the major news organizations themselves that over-rely on the exit polls and have done so for years. The 2000 and 2004 debacles aside, the exit polls have long driven the networks' election night coverage, providing them with the pretense of speaking authoritatively about the results before the results are known.
It is television that has turned election night into the political equivalent of the Superbowl, where the Democrats and Republicans will battle it out for four hours or so and then a winner will be handed the trophy by a beaming TV announcer. For those four hours, they want us on the couch eating Doritos, not surfing the web for exit poll data.
You wonder though. If all the money the networks pour into exit polling went instead into political reporting, actual political reporting, wearing out the shoe leather about who's doing what and where during the last hours of the campaigns and on election day, whether the result might be more informative for the electorate. Maybe, for instance, the networks would have caught on to the NRCC's nationwide robocall scam first, instead of the blogs.
The networks closing themselves off in sealed rooms with no connections to the outside world for five hours in the middle of Election Day is, in many ways, the perfect metaphor for what is wrong with the mainstream media.
--David Kurtz
We've spoken a lot about these 'false-flag' GOP robo-calls and a lot of you have asked questions. So let me, as concisely as I can, explain what the complaints are about.
There are two basic issues about the calls. And to understand what the fuss is about, you need to understand the two together.
First, the calls themselves.
Most of the call's script is a fairly standard attack robocall, a series of Republican talking points aimed at the Democratic congressional in a particular district. Nothing particularly noteworthy. The key is the introduction. The lead into the call starts with the speaker saying 'I'm calling with information about' Dem candidate X. Then there's a short pause.
At this point, you know it's an annoying robocall, so a lot of people just hang up. If you hang up then, you think it's a call from the Democratic candidate.
Second, the repetition. And this part is the key. If you don't listen through the whole message, the machine keeps calling you back, often well in excess of half a dozen times with the same call. It only stops if you listen all the way through.
As you can imagine, that's driving a lot of people through the roof.
In other words, the Republicans behind the calls win either way. If you keep hanging up, you think you're being harassed by the campaign of the local Democratic House candidate. If you give up and listen all the way through, you hear the political attack. The true source of the call, the NRCC, the GOP House campaign committee, is only revealed at the end of the call.
(Federal regulations dictate calls be identified at the top of the call.)
Third, and for this there is as yet only anecdotal evidence, many of the calls seem to be going out overnight or during, say, a major sporting event in the given district.
These sorts of operations are supposed to glide under the radar, having maximum impact with minimal press attention.
And that's pretty much how it worked.
People only started catching on mid-late last week as Democratic campaign after campaign started fielding complaints from voters about robocalls their campaigns weren't even making. Even then, individual campaigns dealt with it mainly on their own. Only over the weekend did different people start putting the puzzle together.
It's impossible to say how many voters out there are pissed off because they think they're being phone-stalked by the local Democratic candidate. And there's no way to tell just what the effect will be at the ballot box. But the intention is clear: suppress the Democratic vote by harassing voters with repetitive phone calls and deceiving them about who it is that's calling them.
Remember, this is the same crew that pulled a not dissimilar phone scheme in 2002 which resulted in multiple felony convictions. This time they've just taken it nationwide. This is their strategy.
--Josh Marshall
WaPo releases its robo-call story. Judge for yourself.
Late Update: Longtime TPM Reader PJ says "I think that WaPo article is terrific. If we got treated that well by the MSM all the time, I would be ecstatic."
--Josh Marshall
Robocall scam report on local radio out of NY-25.
(ed.note: On a tip from TPM Reader SC.)
--Josh Marshall
Clinton speaks at Webb final rally in Virginia ...
Here's the link to Webb's speech.
--Josh Marshall
SurveysUSA has a new MO-SEN poll out. It's the poll that came out early today but with another night's polling added to the tally.
--Josh Marshall
Apparently, WaPo has a robo-call piece coming. My source who's read it say it's pretty weak stuff. Of the 'they all do it' variety. "Better than a spiked story," my source tells me, "but not by much." We'll see.
NYT's piece is online now.
--Josh Marshall
ABC on the robocalls.
TPM Reader DM adds some commentary: "The subtitle of that article is truly disingenuous stating that robocalls from “..both Democrats and Republicans causing voter frustration nationwide…”. Where is the story does it talk about robocalls that actually come from Democratic candidates or from the DSCC? Everything in that story is about Republican dirty tricks with robocalls, yet ABC feels the need to drag Democrats into the mud….just because."
--Josh Marshall
Robocalls are illegal in Indiana. So the scam-kings of a robocall/push poll world Feather Larson & Synhorst ended up hiring people with deep foreign accents to make the calls.
Sort of a problem when the topic of the call scripts was bashing immigrants.
--Josh Marshall
Paul Glastris brings us the latest on Juan Williams' ridiculousness on the robocall story.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader JS, one of our longtime readers, reports in from the circus ...
Chris Matthews, Norah O'Donnell, Chuck Todd and Howard Fineman just now on Hardball all agreed wiht each other that the difference between the states where Bush's approval is rock bottom and the states where "they love this guy" is -- wait for it -- that the states that don't like him much "don't like religion."Really. They really said that. People in New York, Vermont, Massachusetts (Massachusetts!), etc., "don't like religion."
Check out the trsnscript or the clip when it's posted. This was the segment that started around 7:30.
Yep, no Catholicism in the Northeast. Thing of the past ...
Someone send these bozos some false flag robo-calls.
--Josh Marshall
Indiana GOP fires the national Republican party's false flag robocall firm for an unrelated bit of criminal conduct.
--Josh Marshall
Here's CNN's short spot on the robocall story.
Seems a couple of the major dailies (the Los Angeles Times being one of them, I'm told) were priming to write up the robocall story then got cold feet. Maybe they'll run a considered analysis in a week, when the election is in the history books.
--Josh Marshall
Here's a handy retrospective of Republican 'uses' of 9/11 imagery during the 2006 campaign.
--Josh Marshall
The emerging scam? We checked out the stories of false flag GOP robocalls pretty closely before we were comfortable that we understood what was happening, could confirm it and start reporting on it yesterday. Now, over the course of the day, we've been getting other reports of Democrats getting calls informing them their voting location has been changed to what turns about to be a fake voting location.
TPMmuckraker reported on this earlier today about reports in New Mexico. But it wasn't clear whether or not it was an isolated incident.
Over the course of the day, though, we've been getting more reports of this from across the country -- NM, MN, WI, NY and other states. Enough that I'm starting to suspect that this is some sort of coordinated effort. (If this is a coordinated effort, I suspect it'll be much more carefully hidden than the false-flag robocalls, since I suspect this would tip the scales into prosecutable election tampering.)
Let me be crystal clear: in the case of the false flag robocalls, we've heard the calls; we know the company placing them; we know the GOP committee paying for them; we know the complaints surfacing around the country. This is different. These reports are still too sketchy to say whether this coordinated or being directed nationally. In some cases, it may not even be intentional. With two mammoth GOTV operations ramping up nationwide, some confusion is probably inevitable. But we're hearing a sufficient number of reports from different parts of the country, to send up a flare, a virtual alert, if you will. So don't treat this is a fact but rather as an advisory, to be on the look out.
If you've gotten these calls and you have specifics, or if you've seen press reports about calls like this, let us know.
--Josh Marshall
After all the voting shenanigans in Florida I can understand to an extent why voting officials there might be a little defensive. But this column by Tom Lyons in the Sarasota paper shows how at least one local voting official's defensiveness turns into attacks on those reporting problems with voting machines:
[Superviser of Elections Kathy] Dent has long been getting mad at anyone who raises any concern about her voting machines. No matter how reasonable or polite the people may be, they are assumed to be up to no good.I was also struck by Dent's claim to me on Thursday, after just a handful of reported problems and little or no press coverage.
"These reports of alleged problems with the voting machines have been blown out of proportion," Dent said.
What? By whom? And how? Is mentioning a problem now bad judgment?
I asked Dent to explain, but got no answer.
Dent also insisted, in another e-mailed message, that the reports of problems actually indicate the machines are working properly, because all the accounts ended with successful votes.
That is quite a conclusion. It ignores the obvious fact that if some machines are sometimes losing ballot choices, anyone who didn't notice the error would, of course, not be able to complain.
We posted yesterday about the problems during early voting in Sarasota. Read Lyons' entire column here.
--David Kurtz
Atrios has this right. CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS and Fox are each ignoring the GOP's nationwide campaign of false-flag robocalls meant to harass voters and fool them into thinking the calls come from Democrats. If it were Dem on GOP, if it were on Drudge, the cable nets would be on it wall-to-wall. As it is, they're content to ignore it.
That's because the powers-that-be in the mainstream media are in the tow of the Republican party. The Halperins and Crowleys of the news biz are all part of the same corruption.
Like Halperin says, Drudge rules their world.
You have to understand that and absorb that before you can set about doing what's necessary to change it.
Late Update: Are ABC and Halperin going to prove me wrong? I'll believe it when I see it. But they did just put up a breaking news splash about the robocalls. Let's wait to see the fine print. This guy tipped me to it.
Later Update: Blogger at the NYT can't understand the concept.
We're Up All Night Kinda Late Update: I'm told CNN did a short bit on the robocalls during the last hour.
Yep, Even Later: Here's the CNN spot courtesy of Crooks & Liars.
--Josh Marshall
It's already pretty clear what the Republican response is going to be to their scam robocall operation.
Everybody does it. Everybody does robocalls.
Another lie.
We discussed this last night.
Both parties deliver millions of robocalls during election season. You've probably gotten the calls from both parties and many outside groups. It happens every cycle.
Only one party has a nationwide campaign to deliver millions of intentionally-harassing calls disguised to appear that they're from the opposite party. That party is the Republican party. And the calls are funded by the NRCC -- the House GOP election committee.
It's the party of election subversion. Deal with it.
--Josh Marshall
Company behind GOP robocall election subversion operation pulls its own phone numbers down off its site.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader KB: "You know I'm happy that there's some talk that print reporters are looking into the voter supression calls, but frankly it is just too late for something in tomorrow's papers to make a difference. We need ALL Dem talking heads and surrogates who will be apprearing on cable TV tonight to raise this issue -- whether they are asked about it or not. Get it on the airwaves. Force it on shows tonight."
Did you get the scam robocall from the GOP? Reporters would like to chat with you here.
Republicans in NY-19 lie about being behind the calls. But the local paper is on the case.
A press update on the scam calls in NY-20. ChiTrib catches on too.
GOP: the party of election tampering. The shoe fits.
--Josh Marshall
If you see reports of the GOP's voter suppression robocall campaign showing up in your local press, let us know.
Reporters are starting to write stories about it. We'll see if it's soon enough to give voters an idea of how Republicans are trying to subvert the election.
--Josh Marshall
Local Kansas TV station picks up on the GOP voter suppression call campaign.
--Josh Marshall
Ahhh the Republican gene ... This just out from Keystone Politics ...
Santorum Poll Released by Indicted Republican OperativeEarly this morning, Keystone Politics editors received and released a poll by McCulloch Research and Polling showing that Rick Santorum was within 4 points of retaining his Senate seat. Further research into McCulloch Research and Polling shows that Rod McCulloch, principal at the firm, has been indicted in voter fraud and forgery in Illinois.
I guess we can put that one down as a GOP poll on both counts.
--Josh Marshall
Nazis and NAMBLA and gay scoutmasters, oh my!
See the newest mailer from John Doolittle's campaign.
--Paul Kiel
Okay, let's return to those late congressional generic polls. I think we now have all the polls likely to be released before the election. The total is seven. And one obvious pattern shows up. The two polls released on Saturday had big Democratic margins in line with recent polls (Time, Newsweek). The three released yesterday showed substantial or dramatic tightening of the race (Pew, WaPo, Gallup). And then the two released today showed the race back to the big Democratic leads of the past few weeks (CNN, Fox).
Time 2-3rd: D+15
Newsweek 2-3rd: D+16
Pew 1-4th: D+4
WaPo 1-4th: D+6
Gallup 2-5th: D+7
CNN 3-5th: D+20
Fox 4-5th: D+13
The pattern that jumps out is that the polls in the middle period -- particularly those that included the fourth but not the fifth -- show the big tightening. The ones before and after show the big Dem leads.
The first thing to point out is that there just isn't enough data here -- at least not in the toplines -- to say whether this is really a blip in public opinion on the days in question or whether the different polling outfits are just using different likely voter methodologies and that difference happens coincidentally to show a illusory chronological pattern.
I'll be eager to hear from more poll savvy folks, once they've dipped into the internals, about what to make of all this.
(ed.note: Notations about the dates of the polls were hastily pulled together from media reports. In some cases they were ambiguous. If anyone has corrections, please send them in. I was unable to find the dates of the polling for the Newsweek poll -- as noted by the question mark after the date. So I've inferred polling dates of Nov. 1-3rd from the date of release, Nov. 4.)
Late Update: Pollingreport says the Newsweek poll was conducted on the 2nd and 3rd. So I've changed the above stats accordingly. Thanks to TPM Reader MB for the tip.
--Josh Marshall
New Mexico Dems are charging that the state GOP has been calling Democrats and giving incorrect poll location info.
--Paul Kiel
Here's a list of the twenty districts those NRCC robo calls have been hitting. If you've been getting those calls and your district isn't on the list, let us know.
--Paul Kiel
I'm shocked, shocked.
Saddam's verdict of death was read out yesterday. But apparently only that -- death. Not precisely what he was convicted of or why. One of NBC's blogs explains ...
The full verdict, a document of several hundred pages, explaining how and why today’s judgment was reached was not released. U.S. officials said it should be ready by Thursday. So why issue the verdict today? U.S. court advisors told reporters today it was delayed mainly for technical reasons.
They put in all manner of caveats explaining how there's no proof the verdict was timed for political purposes. But it certainly seems like they couldn't actually get the verdict ready for the November 5th slam dunk. So they announced it for US electoral benefit. And they'll do their best to get the actual verdict done by Thursday.
--Josh Marshall
A key Republican echoes Dems: The White House shouldn't be handing out nuclear secrets like candy. That and other news of the day in today's Daily Muck.
--Justin Rood
I'd be interested in what TPM readers think about this GOP mailer in New York.
--David Kurtz
You can hear one of the NRCC robocalls here, from the race in the New York 19th Congressional District.
--David Kurtz
Reports out of New Hampshire suggest the NRCC has stopped its deceptive robocalls there after intervention by the state Attorney General, but confusion remains about what exactly the NRCC has agreed to, and it appears at least some calls are continuing.
From the Union-Leader:
A national Republican group yesterday scuttled a pre-recorded phone call effort the state Attorney General's Office said may have violated New Hampshire law by contacting residents listed on the federal Do Not Call registry.The National Republican Congressional Committee voluntarily agreed yesterday afternoon to stop making automated calls to homes on the registry, said Deputy Attorney General Bud Fitch, who oversees election law.
. . .
Fitch said the agreement with the RNCC came after a conversation about 2 p.m. yesterday between the Attorney General's Office and the general counsel for the Washington-based RNCC.
The state continue to investigate, with no decision on whether to pursue civil action, Fitch said.
Rather than a complete halt to the robocalls, the NRCC seems to have agreed to stop making prerecorded calls to voters on the national No Call List. Federal law permits political advocacy calls to phone numbers on the No Call List on First Amendment grounds, but New Hampshire, like some other states, prohibits prerecorded calls to phone numbers on the No Call List. The NRCC may have been violating the New Hampshire law.
For now it appears that the NRCC has agreed to stop its robocalls only to a subset of New Hampshire voters.
Update: The NRCC contends the New Hampshire law does not apply to it:
Alex Burgos, NRCC spokesman, said his organization has been making calls to independent voters in the state's Second Congressional District since Monday and would continue to do so. . . ."We are a federal organization campaigning about a federal race," said Burgos. "We feel that New Hampshire law does not apply to what we are doing."
In any event, the involvement of the New Hampshire Attorney General has been limited to the very narrow issue of whether the calls are going to voters on the No Call List and not whether they are intended to mislead or harrass voters.
--David Kurtz
It now appears that isolated reports of the NRCC's robocall tactics began emerging a week or so ago, but the reports were sporadic, and it didn't become apparent that the repeat phone calls were part of a coordinated national campaign until over the weekend.
One of the earliest accounts came in an Illinois newspaper article from November 1:
Rozanne Ronen, a Barrington resident, got the call -- "Hi. I'm calling with information about Melissa Bean ..."Then she got the call again and again and 18 more times, making for a total of about 21 calls since October 24.
"They are very annoying," Ronen said.
Pat Vockeroth, of Mount Prospect, received the calls too -- "Hi. I'm calling with information about Tammy Duckworth ..."
"If you only listen to the first sentence, you think they are from the Duckworth campaign," she said.
But the calls aren't paid for by Bean, Duckworth or even the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, they are paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The NRCC acknowledged that it was the source of those Illinois calls but suggested a contractor was to blame for the repeat calls:
Jonathan Collegio, NRCC spokesman, acknowledged that the NRCC has paid for series of robocalls in the 6th and 8th districts, saying phone banking are part of any modern campaign."Phone banking is used by campaigns of all stripes and all these calls are made between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m.," he said.
Asked about the repetitive nature of the calls, Collegio said that may be a problem with the contractor.
"Because these calls are done by computers, it could be some kind of a glitch. This is all a matter of voter contact where we are trying to make sure people are aware of the upcoming election and make sure they vote the right way," he said.
Given that harrassing repeat calls have been reported in congressional districts around the country, it is unlikely that this is merely a contractor's "glitch." But the repeat nature of the calls was not immediately recognized as part of the NRCC's national robocall campaign. For instance, an AP report on the NRCC campaign which also appeared on November 1 focused on the fact that the calls had a tendency to mislead voters into thinking they came from the Democratic candidate, but made no mention of the fact that calls were being repeated multiple times in order to harrass voters and leave them with a negative impression of the Democratic candidate.
The NRCC robocall campaign thus flew under the radar exactly as intended.
We'll have more on this and other voter suppression tactics throughout the day.
--David Kurtz
Pollster.com has a good macro-summary of the what the different congressional generic polls are showing.
--Josh Marshall
Weird. That's not something I would have expected. Gallup's numbers usually aren't that friendly to Dems, on the spectrum of national polls (not a scientific study, just my experience of recent cycles). But Gallup's state by state numbers are out on several big senate races. And they show little or none of the tightening you see in the Mason-Dixon numbers.
Let's do a quick run-down.
MO McCaskill (D) 49%, Talent (R) 45%
MT Tester (D) 50%, Burns (R) 41%
NJ Menendez (D) 50%, Kean (R) 40%
RI Whitehouse (D) 48%, Chafee (R) 45%
TN Corker (R) 49%, Ford (D) 46%
VA Allen (R) 49%, Webb (D) 46%
The only number that really jumps out to me as an outlier is Montana. All the polls I've seen have shown Burns at least gaining on Tester. So a ten point margin sticks out like sore thumb. The other numbers, while friendlier to the Dems, aren't so far off what we've seen. Tight in Missouri. A lead for Menendez. Close in the other states.
The Menendez lead is bigger than other polls, I think. But New Jersey's a Democratic state. So this sort of reverting to form would make a certain sense.
We'll soon see.
--Josh Marshall
Will White House-engineered-timing of Saddam verdict affect election? WaPo reports.
--Josh Marshall
More and more reports coming in of irate voters calling various House Democratic campaigns complaining about the repeat-call-back robocalls.
In other words, these are the harassing calls paid for by the NRCC made to appear that they're from the Democratic campaign. And a lot of angry voters are getting fooled by the scam, it seems.
Take this and the tightening polls together and you get one net result: this election is going to be decided on the ground. It's in the hands of the folks running the get-out-the-vote operations, manning the phone banks, helping people get to the polls. The Republicans are going to do their best to scam their way through this one. So it's up to the people on the ground to make sure they don't get away with it. If you're in the GOTV operation, it's all up to you.
--Josh Marshall
The New York Times follows up on TPMmuckraker.com's story about the push-poll operation run by 'Common Sense Ohio' and its sister organizations.
Better late than never.
--Josh Marshall
USAToday-Gallup is out. A seven point spread for the Democrats on the congressional generic, 51% - 44%.
Like the other two polls out today, that's a substantial tightening. But still a marked edge for the Dems. That's exactly where the congressional generic was for the Gallup poll for the Republicans in 1994.
--Josh Marshall
TPM Reader GW, a regular, on Cokie ...
Yes, Cokie, it has been difficult for the GOP to take bills into conference committee which includes exactly no Democrats, and make whatever changes to the bills, pass them with their majorities, and have them signed. And let's not forget how hard it has been for the GOP to govern with the so called liberal media watching their every move - wait, wait, I need to catch my breath after laughing so hard. Why is this woman on any news program?
Totally. Her silliness transcends insipidness. And, yeah, it ain't a word. But her silliness is so transcendent that it brought the word into existence.
They're all part of the same corruption.
--Josh Marshall
A quick how-to on how to record and then digitize harassing phone calls so you can email them to us or post them on the web.
--Josh Marshall
A bit more info on the robocall scam coming out of New York state. People on the ground seem to be putting the pieces together. A wave of harassing calls paid for by the NRCC targetting probable Democratic voters and uncommitteds with the intent of getting them pissed off at multiple repeat call-backs from what they think is the Dem campaign.
If you've gotten the calls, let us know. We want specifics.
--Josh Marshall
GOP dinged for illegal calls in NH.
I guess this counts as returning to the scene of the crime.
Read the article. But the key here is to put the focus on what's really happening here. The calls are intended to trick voters. That's what they want the election to turn on. That's the message.
--Josh Marshall
Following up on the post below, I doubt very much that the national cable news networks will report on the NRCC robocall election sabotage scam. But will they? Has anyone see any reports on it? It would actually be important news reporting. If anybody sees any reports on the airwaves, let us know. And call it what it is, sabotage. They want another stolen election.
--Josh Marshall
In the post I just did, I said I didn't know what there was to do about these 'false flag' harassing robocalls. But a friend points out that's not the case. There definitely is something you can do. If you've gotten one of these calls, write down as much information about it as you can (time, phone number, etc.) and call the 'metro desk' of your local paper.
They're looking for political stories in the final days. And this is a good one.
Again, what we're talking about here are calls which purport to be from candidate A when in fact they're from candidate B and which call back repeatedly if you hang up before the call is finished. They're intentionally harassing calls -- meant to stick the blame on the other candidate.
You can help get the word out if you act now.
A few basic pointers, which are basically common sense: Be polite. Just give the facts. And just say what you yourself have experienced.
This is a form of election sabotage that everyone should know about -- not three weeks from now, but now, when voters are still making up their minds.
Late Update: Here's a message from a Dem candidate in Kansas, who's apparently been on the receiving end of this scam. The word really needs to get out on this. And remember, it all appears to be coming from these guys.
--Josh Marshall
A number of readers have written in to ask what if any effective response there is to these robocalls we've been writing about.
First, let's address our definitions. Automated political campaign calls are a staple of modern politics. Both sides put in millions of them every election year. That's because they're very cheap, fairly effective and they get less scrutiny than 'public' ads on tv and radio.
To the extent that's what we're talking about, there's nothing 'to do' about them any more than there is anything to do about nasty or unfair 30 second tv spots.
What we're talking about is something a bit different. What we're seeing is an apparent coordinated effort from the NRCC -- the House GOP committee -- to place calls that appear to be from the local Democratic candidate and then automatically call the same number back as many as seven or eight times each time the caller hang-ups. If the caller listens to the whole message it goes on to bash the Democratic candidate. But if the caller hangs up prematurely, the computer calls right back. Hang-ups are the achilles heal of robo-calls. So this seems to be an attempt to cover for that weakness by making those who hang up think the Democratic candidate is basically harassing them with phone calls. The GOP wins either way.
What is there to do about it. As described, the calls appear to be in violation of federal regulations which mandate that these calls clearly identify their origin. The repetitive call back may also be a violation in different states. The New Hampshire AG apparently just intervened to force the NRCC to stop the calls in that state. But frankly, none of that matters. Because the folks placing the calls factor in the price of whatever fines might be meted out after the election when the damage is already done.
Truthfully, I don't think there's really much to do but publicize it and then get out and vote.
A lot of these races remain inside the MOE, the margin of error. And that means the MOT, the margin of theft. If Dems want to pick up seats on Tuesday they'll have to get a lot of these races out of the MOT. Because as long as they're inside, the Republicans can still grab them with a mix of voter suppression, dirty tricks and election fraud.
--Josh Marshall
More of the scam calls from the NRCC, from TPM Reader PS ...
I was canvassing in Stamford, CT for Lamont and Farrel yesterday... some of the canvassers were talking about a nasty robocall hit on Farrell, which they said people at the doors had talked about. I didn't hear that at the door personally, but I wasn't focusing on the congressional race - i was talking about Lamont primarily.Apparently the call starts with something along the lines of "Diane Farrell has some information for you," then pauses, waiting for annoyed people to hang up, and then delivers a negative message about Farrell. The canvassers say the call has hit some people as much as 6 times, and at 5 - 6am as well. Presumably, the intent is to annoy people and stick Farrell with the negative name ID as somebody who keeps robo-calling them.
We won't be able to get to the bottom of this operation until after Tuesday, which is the point. They'll happily pay the fines for breaking the federal regs on misidentifying calls.
--Josh Marshall
The wisdom of Cokie Roberts, from ABCnews.com ...
"It's been difficult to govern, really, since 2000," says ABC News' Cokie Roberts, a long-time observer of Congress. "The country has been split down the middle and the Congress has been split down the middle. There's no reason to believe that that will really change after Tuesday unless there's a huge Democratic wave."
This is really classic stuff. 'Difficult to govern.' That is, during a period of six years of unified Republican rule in Washington and unprecedented levels of party discipline in the Republican caucuses in both houses of Congress.
Late Update: As TPM Reader ME rightly points out, the six year period in unified does include the 18 months of Democratic control of the senate from mid-2001 through the 2002 election.
--Josh Marshall
More from NY-19 on the robo-calls from TPM Reader VO ...
I was handing out leaflets for John Hall yesterday at a grocery store. There were two tables, a democratic one and a Republican one.When I was handing out palm cards, several people said to me something like, "I WAS going to vote for John Hall, until I got all those phone calls. I got seven or eight, right at dinner time."
The guy from the Republican table, who was a local district leader-- friendly and chatty, actually came over to me and said, "You know, most of those are coming from Sue's office, but don't tell anybody."
I don't know how high his connections are to the Kelly campaign, but that's the information he volunteered.
--Josh Marshall
Here are the numbers on the final Pew poll. The big number is the congressional generic. The poll shows a thin 4% margin for the Democrats among likely voters.
That's two polls out today showing momentum for the Republicans in the final days.
--Josh Marshall
Need proof that our election system is broken?
San Diego ran out of absentee ballots and was forced to mail out photocopies of the actual ballot.
If that wasn't bad enough, when the photocopied ballots are filled out and returned, the Registrar of Voters staff will copy the votes by hand onto the actual ballot, which can then be run through an optical scanner.
--David Kurtz
TPM Reader RS smells the coffee ...
Hi Josh,I like to think of myself as not easily surprised when it comes to the GOP's dirty tricks, but the onslaught of robo-call incidents you've mentioned in your latest posts somehow jarred me out of my comfortable cynicism. I think it's useful to take a step back and examine, in the simplest terms, what the Republicans are doing here: they are attempting to sabotage the American democratic process because it's inconvenient for their candidates.
Of course these robo-calls are only one manifestation of a consistent theme, but when I approach the calls without the cynicism of a political news junkie, I find them breathtakingly despicable. The people behind this aren't schoolyard bullies, or even college kids. These are adults with years of political experience and a comprehensive understanding of what exactly their acts amount to. The NRCC simply does not believe that Americans should be able to make informed choices about their representatives in the voting booth. They are perfectly willing to dismantle the democratic process, which cannot function properly when voters are harassed (or even worse, harassed under false pretenses). I think it's fair to say that their behavior in this instance is "profoundly immoral and malevolent," which is how the Oxford English Dictionary describes "evil." Despite our desensitization to these types of transgressions, we cannot afford to take them lightly.
- RS
--Josh Marshall
For more on GOP robocalls that leave the impression with call-saturated voters that the call is from the Democratic candidate, take a look at this post by Paul Kiel earlier in the week over at TPMMuckraker.
--David Kurtz
In Florida, Katherine Harris' old seat is now rated a tossup, and Republican Clay Shaw is trailing badly.
--David Kurtz
A couple of days ago, we linked to a report out of Houston that the GOP was placing signs near early voting polling stations in Tom Delay's former district that read "Encourage Terrorists. Vote Democrat."
Here are some pics.
(Thanks to TPM Reader D for the link.)
--David Kurtz
We're getting reports from a number of congressional districts that one or another of the GOP committees is sponsoring robocalls that begin with "I'm calling with information about [fill in name of Democratic candidate]." Apparently, many voters, irate with the flood of calls, assume that the Democrat is the one sponsoring the call.
In addition to the New Hampshire 2nd and New York 19th, which we covered below, TPM readers report such calls in the Illinos 6th (Roskam v. Duckworth), Illinois 8th (McSweeney v. Bean), and California 4th (Doolittle v. Brown). However, we do not have reports from those district of repeated callbacks after the recipient hangs up, as has been reported in the New York 19th.
--David Kurtz
More on what we're hearing about GOP dirty phone tricks in the New York 19th Congressional District.
Three TPM readers have reported a phone scam with a double whammy. The call purports to be for John Hall, the Democratic challenger, but makes negative assertions about Hall. If the caller hangs up, they are called again and again, as many as seven times, according to one report.
So either the recipient hears a negative message about Hall, or they think Hall is harrassing them with repeated phone calls. Either way it's a win for Hall's opponent, Republican incumbent Sue Kelly.
If you're in the NY-19, let us know what you're hearing.
--David Kurtz
Ted Haggard confesses to "sexual immorality", saying he has had a "lifelong sexual problem."
I fear that's his way of saying he's gay, something for which he probably will seek a "cure." Hard not to feel sorry for the guy.
--David Kurtz
The news out of New Hampshire about harassing NRCC robo-calls disguised to sound like calls from the Democratic candidate should focus everyone's attention.
The prestige DC pundits have never particularly cared. No surprise since they're part of the same corruption. But the national Republican party worked the 2002 New Hampshire election with criminal conduct and then continued to pay the indicted crooks legal bills to keep them quiet.
Ken Mehlman and others have been at the center of this going back six years. And they want to try to pull this one out with criminal conduct too. If they don't succeed, it all needs to be investigated. A real investigation of what happened in 2002. A real investigation of the hush money Mehlman and his predecessors paid to the perpetrators over the last four years. A real investigation of the election fraud from 2004. And a real investigation of what's taking place now as we speak.
The integrity of our political system is on the line.
--Josh Marshall
Voting machine snafus have been reported during early voting in Florida's 13th Congressional District, where Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings are vying for Katherine Harris' open seat:
The voters who complained say they picked Jennings, but the 13th Congressional District had no vote registered for either Jennings or Republican Vern Buchanan when a screen reviewing their votes came up.The voters all said the touchscreen machines allowed them to go back to the 13th District race and make a selection, and their vote was recorded properly in the end.
Similar problems cropped up in South Florida during early voting:
Broward Supervisor of Elections spokeswoman Mary Cooney said it's not uncommon for screens on heavily used machines to slip out of sync, making votes register incorrectly. Poll workers are trained to recalibrate them on the spot -- essentially, to realign the video screen with the electronics inside. The 15-step process is outlined in the poll-workers manual.
Can you imagine an ATM "slipping out of sync" after heavy usage? Billions of dollars worth of commercial transactions are successfully completed every day in this country by consumers involving far more complicated software and far more possible choices than an electronic voting ballot. There is simply no excuse for this kind of thing, and anyone who suggests it's just par for the course was either sold a bill of goods or is selling one.
--David Kurtz
More GOP dirty phone tricks in New Hampshire, scene of the 2002 phone-jamming incident that led to criminal prosecutions of Republican operatives:
For the second straight day yesterday, Democratic field offices received dozens of phone calls and e-mails from frustrated voters upset about repeated automated phone calls they thought were coming from Democratic candidate Paul Hodes - though the calls were paid for by a Republican group instead.The National Republican Congressional Committee spent nearly $20,000 on the calls last week. Depending on the rate, that could mean more than 300,000 automated phone calls into the Second Congressional District.
Incumbent Republican Congressman Charlie Bass denounced the calls yesterday and said he tried to get the NRCC to put a stop to them. But a spokesman for the NRCC said the automated phone calls would continue indefinitely.
"The calls will continue as planned," said Alex Burgos, a spokesman for the NRCC, the national group charged with electing Republicans to the House. "They are done independently of Charlie Bass's campaign. He has nothing to do with them."
The only surprising thing here is that the NRCC has essentially admitted this is one of its tricks. We have a report that a similar effort is underway in the New York 19th Congressional District, where Democrat John Hall is trying to unseat Republican Sue Kelly.
Reports of GOP voter supression efforts are coming in from all around the country, in local, state, and federal races. Here are a few samples:
In North Carolina:
On Monday morning, when Chapel Hill lawyer Bob Epting approached the early voting center at Morehead Planetarium, he . . . was approached by a female college student who asked whether he was a registered Democrat."Yes I am," he said.
She replied, "Good, here's a list of our judicial candidates."
Epting thanked her, folded the piece of paper without looking at it and put it in his pocket. . . .
But after exiting the poll, he remembered the piece of paper and removed it from his pocket. Standing at the top of a dozen or so marble steps, he scanned the list in disbelief. It was a list of Republican candidates.
In California:
Senator Dianne Feinstein sounded off today over a mailer that prominently displays her picture. It's billed as a voter information guide for Democrats, despite the fact that it recommends voting no on some issues that Feinstein and the Democratic Party support, including Proposition 86, the tobacco tax, and Proposition 87, the oil tax.
We'll keep posting as we hear about them.
--David Kurtz
Okay, there's a lot going on today. And given that so much of this election is driven by opposition to the Iraq war, it seems hard to see how it could change too many minds. But let's take just a few moments to marvel at the titanic cynicism of this White House for scheduling the sentencing of Saddam Hussein two days before election day. It is one last reminder of this president's quest to turn this country into a banana republic. And really one of the best reasons to send them all packing.
--Josh Marshall
What happens if Republicans retain control of the Senate? Here's a sample of what's in store (emphasis added):
Across the aisle, [Sen. Bob] Bennett [R-UT] is confident Republicans will hang on to control of the Senate, just barely, and could see the body being split evenly down the middle, with Vice President Dick Cheney tipping the balance ever-so-slightly to the Republicans.If he's right, Bennett will have the ear of the presumptive Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell.
There is no one in the Senate whom Bennett is closer to than the Kentucky Republican. For nearly two years, the two senators have had a deal in place where Bennett would become counsel to the majority leader, a hand-picked adviser, putting him in the inner circle of Senate leadership and in the room for every deal cut and horse trade that gets done.
And McConnell has already given Bennett the green light to use his chairmanship of the Joint Economic Committee to take another swing at one of Bennett's pet projects: overhauling Social Security.
Once a cornerstone of President Bush's agenda, it was quickly torn to shreds by Democrats and seniors groups.
Bennett proposed raising the retirement age and indexing payments based on need. He also pitched a separate plan to create private retirement accounts. Neither plan went far, but they are still tucked away in his desk drawer, and he is prepared to dust them off.
Just another reminder of what's at stake Tuesday.
(Thanks to TPM Reader JL for the tip.)
--David Kurtz
Election Central has a rundown on the last round of electoral predictions.
--David Kurtz
The McClatchy-MSNBC poll that I mentioned last night is now out. Mason-Dixon is the pollster. Here's a handy chart.
The takeaway from this polling is that Montana and Rhode Island are surprising dead heats, Missouri and Virginia are too close to call, and Harold Ford is struggling in Tennessee.
As for the role of race in the Tennessee contest:
The poll suggests that a Republican ad mentioning that Ford attended a Super Bowl party attended by Playboy playmates and featuring a white woman telling Ford to "call me," hurt Ford. A whopping 81 percent of likely voters saw the ad.While 67 percent said it would have no effect on their vote, 23 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Corker and 10 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Ford.
Let me emphasize, those polled who admitted that the ad affected their vote broke to Corker by a ratio of more than 2-to-1. That's no acccident.
--David Kurtz
As expected, Saddam Hussein sentenced to hang.
Update: The widely held view has been that Saddam's sentencing was timed to boost Republican prospects in the midterm elections. But a number of readers have suggested that any intended boost is likely to be offset by a spike in violence in Iraq and a possible spike in U.S. casualties. That bears watching. Early reports this morning from Iraq suggest as much, with Shiites celebrating in the streets and gun battles breaking out in Sunni neighborhoods.
--David Kurtz
The latest from Charlie Cook, who thinks the House goes to the Democrats, the only question being by how many seats:
The Senate is a very different situation and there are some very strange things going on.In Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is gone. While the margin in Ohio is not nearly as wide, it's very hard to see how Mike DeWine makes it back either.
The strange ones are Conrad Burns and Lincoln Chafee in Montana and Rhode Island, respectively. Both races are basically even, pretty remarkable considering how dismal their prospects looked just a couple weeks ago. While even is a bad place for a Republican to be going into Election Day in this kind of environment, both have some momentum at this point.
Conversely, George Allen and Jim Talent, are dead even as well, but with no momentum, and that is very, very dangerous under these circumstances. Talent/Republicans have a fabulous field organization in Missouri, if Talent pulls it out, it might be the ground game that does it, but this is very tough for both.
In Tennessee, while Democrats are boasting of a very strong African-American early voting program, this race really does appear to have slipped away from Democrats. Ijd be surprised to see Corker lose to Ford now.
--David Kurtz
