My Take on the Dem Debate
So, a few observations about the Democratic debate.
First, a few months ago, I said that I didn't get what Barack Obama thought he was doing in one of the debates, that he was doing a very good job debating as the frontrunner, when in fact he was falling further and further behind Hillary Clinton. It showed tonight. There are a lot of differences between now and then. And I thought he had a good night. But tonight was an example where his style worked much better when he's on top. He parried Clinton pretty well. And I don't think she really laid a glove on him.
As I wrote earlier, I think the debate started in a pretty shambling fashion. Then it began to engage and built to a pivotal, even defining exchange on the subject of change around 9:30 PM. Obama made his case. Significantly, Edwards largely agreed with Obama to the effect of trying to close the door on Hillary's candidacy. Hillary was clearly pissed and responded with what you probably consider (depending on your perspective) either an impassioned or enraged response (perhaps both) that I think very articulately and effectively described her argument for her candidacy. I think that Hillary moment will become a Rorschach for voters around the country.
You can see it here ...
John Edwards also had, I thought, a very strong debate, particularly in the latter half of the debate. He talks a lot about feeling this fight in his blood and being a fighter. And it's important when you say things like that that it really resonates in what you say, how you act, who you seem to be. And I think it did on every count. Unfortunately for Hillary, most of the eloquence and fire was directed at her tonight.
The exchange I noted earlier from around 9:30 PM was the emotional, dramatic crux of the evening. After that a lot of the energy seemed to be released from the discussion. Not in a bad way necessarily. I thought each of them had very good moments in the second half. But that was the crux of the debate, where the key points were enunciated, and each candidate defined.
In general, I think Obama's the winner tonight. I think Hillary made her case well. I think Edwards had the best debate. But the debate can only be understood in the context of the moment. Right now, Obama's on fire. The first post-Iowa polls show him picking up a big post-caucus bump. He needed to come off well. Not make any mistakes. And not let Hillary open up any strong line of attack against him. And I think he did each one of those things. Which means he gave some reassurance to those who might be hesitating to get on the bandwagon and didn't do or allow anything to happen which significantly changes the trend of the moment, which is moving heavily in his favor.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Debate -- Midway
They started out sort of shambling. They're each clearly and very understandably worn out. (Not as much Richardson. But then, hey, he's not really in the race.) Then they engaged. And I found myself being proud of them as a group, because the caliber of the discussion was so much higher than that of the Republicans. But the real engagement happened at about 9:30 on the topic of change. I noted what was said in the post below. But since then, it seems like that was the emotional crux of the debate. Like the key points were aired and the emotional tension was broken. After that the energy sort of drained out of the discussion.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Debate Blogging
When Obama started off, I thought he was a little iffy and uninspired in his response. But then the rest of the three were each worst than the last. So now I don't know what to think.
9:26 PM ... In fairness to all the candidates in both debates, the fatigue from all of them is palpable.
9:38 PM ... Okay, now we're getting somewhere. Starting at about 9:30, that was a very powerful exchange. I'm not certain who got the better of it in as much as I think each of the three hit their key points effectively. Obama's very solid. Edwards really tried to slam the door on Hillary permanently. She was ... I'm not certain what the right word is, enraged? But it was a good response. Impassioned in ways that I think will play very well with some and probably not well with others. But really captured her argument as well as, I think you have to say, her anger at being in this position.
--Josh Marshall
All the Polls Fit to Print
One more post-Iowa poll in New Hampshire. This one is from Research 2000, and it shows things basically unchanged between Obama and Hillary. Each picked up a couple of points since the last poll, and Obama still leads by a point.
But big movement on the GOP side, where, according to these numbers, John McCain is soaring.
--David Kurtz
Debate Blogging -- Narcolepsy Edition
At this point it seems clear that the big take away from the Republican debate is that these are six pretty tired old guys who can barely get enthusiastic enough to answer the questions. Talk about dialing it in.
Have to say I'm disappointed in the Mittster. I had pretty high hopes. But he was being slapped around up there like the dorky kid in the High School locker room. It was sad. And Mitt's inner humorlessness did not serve him well.
8:50 PM ... Stephanopoulos agrees: Mitt blew it. Defensive, inarticulate, and just generally sad sac.
TPM Reader CS ... "Is it me, or do Thompson and McCain seem like those old guys who sit in the balcony on the Muppets? Cranky, cranky. Also, they could be compared to the old guy neighbor who exclaimed "Kid, get that ball outta my yard." There was definitely some of that. There was actually one moment where Thompson perfectly channeled Mr. Burns from the Simpsons. I'm going to have go back and grab that picture.
--Josh Marshall
Romney
Really feeling like my investment of time and heart in the Mittster is not being rewarded here. I was expecting him to effectively demagogue the immigration issue versus McCain. But he can't even speak comprehensibly. I can't even tell what he's talking about. Each of them are like a matadors sticking those long sticks into the Mitt bull.
I mean, I can't take this. Romney's making Rudy look good.
8:18 PM ... I'm wondering if Rudy is realizing that his dreams of presidential glory are over and so he figures he might as well re-embrace some of the reasonable things he did as Mayor.
8:22 PM ... Huckabee's argument makes so much sense. Illegals will agree to deport themselves because if they don't and we catch them we'll deport them. Makes sense.
8:25 PM ... Finally my guy Mitt is getting his shoulder into it.
8:26 PM ... Whatever happens in this election, whoever wins, we'll all be able to agree that the complete humiliation of Fred Thompson made it all worthwhile.
8:28 PM ... This is killing me. I don't think Romney's embrace of Barack Obama as the new centerpiece of his presidential agenda just isn't going to cut it.
8:37 PM ... I think this debate format is good in as much as that it has clearly made each of the candidates forget they're involved in an election. Especially Thompson.
8:39 PM ... Rudy: Ike committed the US to putting a man on the moon; Nixon got it done.
--Josh Marshall
Learned My Lesson
I've been hearing McCain saying he'd 'learned his lesson' on immigration last year. And it had a real George Wallace sound to it. But listening to his statement now, it doesn't sound like he's changed that much. Good for him: but I think that's going to remain a real albatross around his neck in the coming weeks.
--Josh Marshall
One Hour In
I was a little distracted during some of the first hour of the debate. Because of some site technical stuff. But my general impression was that it was basically a wash. McCain was decent. Romney was okay. Huckabee was decent rattling off his Huck jargon. Seemed basically like a wash to me and thus not really that clear who achieved what in terms of the vote on Tuesday.
--Josh Marshall
Live Debate Blogging
7:20 PM ... Mittmentum!
7:25 ... I was hoping we'd get to each of the candidates scholarship on Muslim radicalism.
7:29 PM ... Good words there from Rudy about the Muslim religion and Muslims, but completely belied by his recent scary Muslims ad.
7:37 PM ... Sigh. That must have been fun for Mitt. Charlie Gibson had to be honest that Mitt's flipflopping goes without saying.
That's what we need -- more Americans buying health care outside of big risk pools.
A TPM Reader makes an interesting point: "Didn't Giuliani open a dangerous door when he said that he returned that million dollar cheque to that Saudi prince, when his security consultancy firm did business with Qatar which was overseen by Qatar's Minister of the Interior, Abdullah bin Khalifah Al Thani who apparently has ties to various terrorist groups?"
7:51 PM ... This really is the heart of Republican thinking on health care these days: ordinary folks aren't being thrifty enough and taking the cost into account enough when they decide whether to get that MRI the doctor ordered.
Romney's actually the only guy up there who has any policy on health care, any experience dealing with the actual issue. But he's not making that case very well. Especially against a stuffed shirt like Thompson.
8:00 PM ... Mitt: "Doing the work of the Free Market." For Mitt, that's like "Doing the Lord's Work."
--Josh Marshall
Hillary drops a new New Hampshire mailer on Obama's abortion record.
Late Update: Reed Hundt says he doesn't think it's going to work.
--Josh Marshall
Our Eyes and Ears
Here at TPM we're getting ready for live-blogging tonight's debates. But I wanted to let you know how much your updates help us at a time like this. I just heard from one reader whose son is up in New Hampshire volunteering for one of the Democratic candidates. She gave some great detail about what the volunteers are hearing as they call former New Hampshire supporters of now-dropped-out candidates (Biden and Dodd). Others have sent in pictures and video from rallies. So many people -- either on the ground in New Hampshire or in contact with those who are, or connected in some other way -- have some hand in this battle that is unfolding. And your tips and reports and photographs and video help us pull it all together for the big picture. So please, keep it coming. We read it all. And we could not do without it. So let us know what you're hearing and seeing.
--Josh Marshall
Begone!
A lot is going to happen over the next three days. But perhaps one really good thing can come out of it: driving Mark Penn out of Democratic politics once and for all. I really don't know how he keeps his hooks in his clients, particularly Hillary. And he's taking a lot of richly, richly deserved grief for his late in the day trash-talking about that very accurate Des Moines Register poll.
So deserved. And for so much.
--Josh Marshall
Breaking . . .
New CNN poll: Obama and Hillary all tied up in New Hampshire--33% apiece.
--David Kurtz
Blindsided
The recriminations begin within the Clinton campaign:
Specifically, those inside the campaign and outside advisers fault Penn for failing to see the Iowa defeat coming. They say he was assuring Clinton and her allies right up until the caucuses that they would win it. Says one: "He did not predict in any way, shape or form the tidal wave we saw." In particular, he had assured them that Clinton's support among women would carry her through. Yet she managed to win only 30% of the women's vote, while 35% of them went for Obama.A modest rise in Iowa turnout from traditional levels — say by about 20,000 or 30,000 — might have been easy to write off as merely the result of superior tactics on the part of the well-funded Obama operation. But the fact that voters flooded the caucuses, and that Obama swept just about every demographic group, speaks to something larger that is going on in the electorate, Clinton strategists now acknowledge.
--David Kurtz
Gasbag
Guess there's not much argument that O'Reilly shoved Obama staffer Marvin Nicholson:
Speaking later on Fox News, O'Reilly said he tried to "gently remove" the Obama staffer so his camera could get a shot of the Illinois senator."We're sorry we had to have that little confrontation," O'Reilly added, "but no one on this earth is going to block a shot on The O'Reilly Factor. It is not going to happen."
--David Kurtz
M.J. Rosenberg: Because of his race, Obama offers the possibility of believing again.
--David Kurtz
Ken Baer tries to figure out: What can Hillary Clinton do to stop Barack Obama?
--David Kurtz
Feel the Surge
We're starting to get a feel now for how the Democratic race is playing out in New Hampshire after Obama's big win Thursday night in Iowa.
A second New Hampshire poll taken after the Iowa caucus is just out. The American Research Group poll, taken yesterday and today, shows Obama up by 12 over Hillary. The other purely post-Iowa poll, from Rasmussen, shows Obama up 10.
We also have two new three-day tracking polls out today, both of which just have one day of post-Iowa numbers, but already show a move toward Obama. The Zogby tracking poll still has Hillary ahead of Obama, but he cut her lead in half on the strength of Friday's numbers. The Suffolk University tracking shows Hillary's lead over Obama cut from 12 points to 7 points with the addition of the Friday numbers.
Taken together, things are looking very good for Obama. Will Hillary hit the panic button and go negative? So far, she hasn't.
--David Kurtz
Don't Forget About Us!
Elizabeth Edwards deplores lack of media coverage of John's second place finish in Iowa.
--David Kurtz
Queensbury Rules
Pics of the O'Reilly scuffle with the Obama staffer.
You can't tell much, except he looks just as obnoxious away from the studio lights.
--David Kurtz
Just in from Nashua
TPM Reader JV checks in from Nashua
The Obama rally at Nashua North High School at 10AM this morning is right down the street, so I went to see him. I didn't get there until just before 10, and the place was jammed. I had to park in a church lot a half mile away. This is a new High School, with what must be the largest gym in the state. It was full to overflowing. The picture attached was the line waiting to get in a little after 10. The line extends as far back in the other direction too. Shortly after I took this photo, the line stopped for several minutes. When it started moving again, it was to let us into the "secondary gym" (which is about as large as most high school primary gyms) and they filled that one too. So we didn't get to see Obama, but we did get to hear him. When he finished, he briefly popped into our room to thank us for coming out. (video below) I've lived in NH for 27 years now. I've never seen a candidate pull crowds anything like this. Shortly after Obama started, he asked how many undecideds were in the room, and (from what I was told later by people that we in the main gym) there was a fairly good number that raised their hands. He talked for 30-35 minutes, and he was good. He talked about hope. He took on all the points that Hillary is hitting him on (lack of experience etc). (One of his best lines was something like "they want me to stew for a while until all the hope has boiled off".) I suspect he convinced a lot of those people that were on the fence.this is how much we actually saw of him in the room we were in:
--Josh Marshall
Cuff Him!
Bill O'Reilly reportedly shoves Obama staffer at New Hampshire rally, and Secret Service steps in.
--David Kurtz
New Poll: Obama Up 10 in N.H.
Here's the latest from Rasmussen:
Obama 37%
Clinton 27%McCain 31%
Romney 26%
--David Kurtz
Taking the High Road?
Despite considerable speculation yesterday in the hours after her third-place Iowa finish that Hillary would have no choice but to go negative to salvage a victory in New Hampshire, her campaign has apparently decided not to go that route.
--David Kurtz
How Much Bump Does Iowa Give?
Zogby's first New Hampshire tracking poll with post-Iowa numbers is out. With yesterday's numbers added to the three-day rolling poll, Obama gained two pecentage points and Hillary stayed steady, suggesting perhaps that Hillary is holding her own but that Obama is picking up supporters from the second tier and now out of it candidates. She still holds a four point lead, with Edwards pretty far back in third. On the GOP side, McCain loses two percentage points, and clings to a two point lead over Romney. Huckabee gains two but remains a distant third.
--David Kurtz
Some good New Hampshire analysis of what's at stake and what's happening in the primary from Tom Edsall at Huffpo.
--Josh Marshall
WTF?
Okay, I could come up with a few good snarky lines on this one. But I'll settle for someone just explaining to me what the hell Mike Huckabee's talking about.
TPMer Eric Kleefeld and I were chatting this evening about whether everyone's underestimating Huckabee's chances in this race. And I think Eric may be on to something. But then I go over to Huck's site and I see his pitch to supporters, which you can see in this screen capture.
Can anyone explain what the hell that means? Vertical? I guess if you're main opponent was Fred Thompson you might push the fact that you spend most of your time standing up. But seriously, is there something I'm missing here? Or is this the weirdest campaign I've ever heard?
I mean, at a minimum it's setting the bar for his presidency pretty low, right?
Late Update: Well, ask and ye shall receive, they say. Apparently this is a big buzzword for Huckabee. He wants to end the horizontal politics and get back to vertical politics.
Here's a video of him talking about it ...
Later Update: A few other readers suggest there's some crypto-evangelical code wording going on with it too. And it seems like they're definitely on to something here. Here's one example, another and another.
The more I look at this I don't think there's any question this is a clever dog whistle call out to Christian fundamentalists and evangelicals that his politics are God's politics.
--Josh Marshall
High Ground
I hinted at this last night. And now Dan Balz makes the same point. If you look at the kinds of people and political constituencies where Obama got his biggest support, New Hampshire has even more of those people than Iowa.
--Josh Marshall
Happy Endings
Trent Lott lands on his feet, founds new lobbying firm with former Sen. Breaux.
--Josh Marshall
Ken Baer reports from a rally in New Hampshire: Kerry in 2004 played the right notes, Obama is playing music.
--David Kurtz
Jared Bernstein: It's looking like our recent economic troubles have reached the labor market.
--David Kurtz
Smelling the (Ice) Coffee
I feareth that my man Mitt, in whose candidacy I've invested so much time and energy, is destined to get smoked on Tuesday.
Just got this letter from Mitt ...
Dear Friend, As you’ve likely seen by now, we finished a strong second place in Iowa and the mainstream press has been quick to call this devastating. Well, I’m here to tell you that just like in the Olympics, winning the silver in the first event does not mean you’re not going to come back and win the gold in the final event. And we’re going to win the presidential nomination, by pulling together. I’m humbled by what you have done so far. Now, the action you take today could determine the course of history!1. Please Invite 5 friends to join Team Mitt. It’s going to take every mouthpiece and volunteer possible for victory. Someone from my staff will follow-up with all new Team Mitt members immediately.2. Call a friend, forward them this email, stop by their home or office and ask for just one more contribution to help us win New Hampshire and continue this campaign to the ultimate finish – the White House at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
3. Finally, help 5 friends learn more about me with a personalized phone message. Just use our new phone messaging tool. I’ll even record a customized voicemail greeting for your cell phone if you’d like. Imagine the surprise your friends will get when they call.
Remember – Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush also finished second in Iowa and went on to win the Republican nomination, and I will too. I’m the only candidate who is competitive in all of the early primary or caucus states – South Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Florida…and of course New Hampshire.
You know as well as I do that Iowa represents the beginning of the process, and we’re on our way to New Hampshire to win – with your help.
My sincere thanks,
Mitt
I'm shocked that they can get a machine to perfectly imitate Mitt's voice well enough to give me my personalized Mitt voicemail. I'm loving it!!!
--Josh Marshall
Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde?
Williams Hartung considers what a Mike Huckabee foreign policy would look like.
--David Kurtz
Feel the Rage
Just for the record, I find it fascinating just how openly the Republican establishment just hates Mike Huckabee. Don't get me wrong. I can see why they're bent out of shape. They think he'd be a rotten national candidate. And more importantly they're pissed at him for not understanding the proper role of Christian conservatives in the Republican party, which is to supply votes, phone-bankers and general grunt work.
My pal Mike Lind in one of his books had this great line about the GOP Triangular Trade in which Southern evangelicals provide the votes for a party financed by and run on behalf of Wall Street and with policies devised by a gang of New York intellectuals and scribblers. He put it more eloquently. But he had it about right.
Basically, Richard Scaife provides the money to help keep his taxes low. Bill Kristol comes up with the ideas. And Mike Huckabee provides the votes.
Anyway, I get why they're down on him. But I'm surprised at just how transparent they are about it. With Ron Paul at least the guy dissents from what are now cardinal points of the Republican agenda. But where does Mike Huckabee really dissent on much of anything?
--Josh Marshall
Mitt: I'm Loving It!!! 2.0
You'll notice in today's video Mitt has regained some of his composure. And unlike last night's appearance he's ditched most of the gritted, teeth and facial twitches that suggested a loss of his preferred animatronic presentation.
My favorite moment in this new Mitt moment comes at about 16 seconds in. Scarborough makes a gentle joke at Romney's expense, to which the expected reply in a move-along 'good one' or something. But Mitt just can't help himself. Watch what he says but even more his expression.
--Josh Marshall
He Made a Funny
Obama jabs Hillary:
Referring to his new status as the Democratic front-runner, he said: "This feels good. It's just like I imagined it when I was talking to my Kindergarten teacher."
--David Kurtz
Rudy!
Okay, it seems like Rudy isn't going to give up his long, twilight struggle to truly embody his own parody. He's now passing off the difficulties of his 6th place Iowa finish and flagging campaign by saying it's nothing compared to the dangers he faced on 9/11.
--Josh Marshall
Final Number
Seems the final participation number on the Dem side in Iowa rests at 239,000. It is difficult to express just how much that number exceeds almost all expectations. Here's what Edwards advisor and former Dean 2004 guru Joe Trippi said just a couple days ago ...
Anybody who tells you this thing gets up to 220,000, that's some number of people who've never participated in this thing. It'd be an incredible thing to see if it happened, and more power to the candidate who pulled that off.But I'm also having this reverse deja-vu where I remember spending a good chunk of this period 4 years ago telling every reporter that would talk to me about exactly how 220,000 people were going to turn out and vote, and if they did Howard Dean would be the next president of the United States. This time I feel a little awkward sitting here arguing that 200,000 will never show up, but I honestly don't think it's going to happen.
--Josh Marshall
From the Trenches
TPM Reader TF reports from on the ground ...
You are absolutely correct ("Kicked Ass, Will Travel") about Iowa (Republicans) being tailor-made for Huckabee. As an observer of R politics in this state, it has been years since the fundamentalist right seized control of the party. This has some downsides for their party—we had several prominent former Republicans caucusing with us (including a former legislator).Not so correct about Iowa Democrats. Jessie Jackson did very well here in 1988. On the whole, Iowa Democrats tend to be more progressive than the average Democrat and extremely open-minded (and sometimes naïve about our opponents). My own observation (as an Edwards supporter) is that the Obama campaign was extremely-well organized and figured out how to turn out new caucus attendees. (The former Republicans at our caucus generally supported Obama.) Our precinct went from a prior high of just over 300 attendees to 523. From a quick view at the paper this morning, our caucus was not alone.
But central to this is that Obama would never have run into problems with Iowa Democrats because of his race, any more than Clinton would run into problems because of her sex. I failed to pull over a number of Democrats who agreed with everything Edwards said, liked him a lot, but did not want to pick the white male candidate in this field. Whether Obama can pull in Republicans is a different question (given the people who are left in that party, it is unlikely), but relying on a large number of independents, he certainly showed a major draw and tapped into resources that no one has tapped into in Iowa in my political experience (which goes back to about 1978, even though I could not vote that year.) This will be good for our party; one of our new County Central Committee members was the Obama precinct chair and has never been involved in party politics at this level before (I’m not sure she ever caucused before.)
I’ll add a more general observation. I know a lot of Democrats who have nothing against Hillary Clinton, but they can visualize the Republican attack because they remember the attacks on Bill Clinton. I don’t think those same Democrats visualize the attack on Obama, if he is the nominee. With the Republican “scare” issue moving from gay marriage to immigration (and with it, the GWOTTM), and the base of the Republican Party what it is, the race against Obama (if he gets the nomination) could be one of the most miserable experiences in modern politics. I picture a racist, xenophobic campaign that will bring out all the worst America can be. The upside is that Senator Obama is up to the challenge and if he is nominated and wins, the mere act of winning could transform our country and the Democratic Party. I support Edwards because of his policy positions, because I think his economic diagnosis and solutions are the best. I believe he already improved the race by forcing our other candidates to seriously address health care, the environment and poverty. I am also not convinced that Obama’s coming together message will work or that he can lead the country from that position without getting run over by the Republicans. But if Senator Obama can do nationally what he did here, watch out for him—he will be a potent political force.
--Josh Marshall
(Very) Big Picture
One of the surest axioms of politics-watching is that folks who say they're going to win not by getting a bigger slice of the pie but by expanding it are full of it. That sounds a little cynical. But you would put together a very good record of prognostication by assuming it's always true. And that's one thing that stands out to me about last night on the Democratic side. As Eric Kleefeld points out here, among returning caucus-goers, Edwards won last night with 30%. But 57% of caucus-goers were first-timers. And Obama won those newcomers decisively -- 41% to Hillary's 29% and Edwards at 18%.
I don't think it's fair to credit all the expansion of the Democratic electorate to Obama. There are a number of factors, several of which are pluses for the Democrats in general. But he won them resoundingly.
And clearly there was no way to peg this outcome if you figured by looking at the makeup of previous caucuses.
Another point that needs saying. There was a lot of talk going into last night that Obama was going to overwhelm the caucuses by bringing in tons of independents. That didn't happen. As a percentage of caucus-goers independents made up almost exactly the same percentage as they did in 2004.
(ed.note: A lot of readers have written in about this last paragraph. So perhaps it's unclear. Whoever brought them, there were clearly about twice the number of independents caucusing with the Democrats last night as compared to four years ago. My point, however, was whether they would 'overwhelm' the caucuses in the sense of change their partisan complexion. And that clearly didn't happen since the breakdown of Dems and Independents remained the same.)
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Paul Kiel catches us up on the EPA's decision not to allow California to regulate greenhouse gas vehicle emissions and the unfolding legal and political battles between Congress/environmentalists and the White House over the universally panned decision.
--David Kurtz
Nathan Newman notes that Obama's win last night could translate into "realignment of a whole range of voters into the progressive column, not just in November but over time."
--David Kurtz
Kicked Ass, Will Travel
The message coming out of tonight is that outsiders, non-establishment figures, shook up both parties. And that is no doubt true. But another point occurs to me about this result -- comparing the two races.
This state was tailor-made for Mike Huckabee. It's not the evangelical South. But Iowa's Republican caucus constituency has a very evangelical tinge. It's no accident that Pat Robertson came in second here back in 1988.
You can't say the same thing about Obama. Iowa's a very white state. And if I'm not mistaken it is, demographically, a relatively old state. Unlike Huckabee, there's no reason (nothing about the state itself) to think that Obama shouldn't do as well or better in New Hampshire than he did in Iowa. And if he comes off another win in New Hampshire I think it's a good bet that African-Americans in South Carolina (who make up something like half the Democratic primary constituency) will break overwhelmingly in his favor.
None of this is to presuppose the outcome of the Democratic race. Hillary's not going anywhere. She could have knocked Obama out of the race with two strong victories. But it will take a lot longer and a lot more wins for Obama to put this one away. What I'm talking about is the disparity between the night's big winners -- Huckabee and Obama. Huckabee was in many ways on his very best terrain. Perhaps the peculiarities of caucusing helped Obama. But his victory strikes me as much more portable outside the state than Huckabee's.
--Josh Marshall
Obama Won the Old Fashioned Way
After all that, the candidate who won big on second-choicers was John Edwards.
--Josh Marshall
BREAKING: Gravel says he's not really dropping out, demands retraction from Olbermann.
And you thought the comedy writers were on strike ...
--Josh Marshall
Where We Are
It's always hard to explain in advance, particularly to people who aren't political junkies, just how it is that a victory in a small and not very representative state like Iowa can powerfully shape the race going forward. Why does someone in Florida or New Hampshire or New Mexico care one way or another what people in Iowa do? But you're already beginning to see it.
Some of it is simply crowd instinct. We're social creatures. Victory is attractive, especially if you don't have clear commitments -- ideological or partisan -- going in. But there's something more than that too.
Barack Obama's speech sounds very different now that he's talking from a position of political strength, rather than where things were a few months ago, when he seemed like he was getting lapped by Hillary. And let's face it, it was quite a speech. It made me think again of 2004.
The difference is even more striking and perhaps more realistic with Romney. Purely for my own reasons, I would have liked Romney to do better tonight, because I think he'd be a very weak national candidate. Rudy's already toast. Trailing Ron Paul tonight was just a confirmation of that. He's not even relevant. With Romney though, he spent tons, tons of money, absolutely put his all in to Iowa and he got smoked by Huckabee who barely spent anything by comparison.
On various levels, Romney put his all into Iowa. And he got thumped.
McCain had a pretty poor night tonight, coming in fourth behind the comatose Fred Thompson. But let's not kid ourselves. Romney took a big blow tonight. And if he can't come back strong in New Hampshire his collapse will be McCain's gain -- not because McCain's on fire or has any money or really is in any kind of strong position by most objective measures. The truth, though, is that there's simply no one left. It ain't Thompson; ain't Rudy. You can't say Huckabee's out of it but put me down with those that just don't think he can overcome the twin hurdles of a) running amongst more moderate and cosmopolitan Republican electorates and b) running against almost the entire GOP establishment. And that leaves you with McCain.
The truth is that the Republican party tonight is in complete disarray. The best financed candidate just fell on his face. Their big winner of the evening is opposed by almost the entire establishment of his party. The frontrunner of recent months is lost down in Florida shakily repeating '9/11' under his breath like a hobo who needs a stiff drink.
McCain's just the only guy left. And that ain't nothing. Because one of them does have to win. And I'd rather see the Dems face Romney than McCain.
--Josh Marshall
Meta-Story
Beyond who won on each side, there's a very big partisan message out of tonight. Just under 220,000 Democrats caucused tonight. About 115,000 Republicans did. That is a very big vote in itself.
--Josh Marshall
Chris Matthews Has Franz Fanon Envy
Chris Matthews gets wet and messy about Barack, son of Africa, the Third World, revolutionary hero, guy named Hussein, etc. etc. etc. ...
--Josh Marshall
A reader just told us McCain claimed 'victory' with his 4th place showing? Did you see it?
--Josh Marshall
Mitt: I'm Loving it!!!
Like I said, I wasn't sure Mitt Romney's animatronic speaking style could be thrown by anything. But telling Fox News listeners earlier this evening how rockin' it was coming in second challenged even the Mittster ...
--Josh Marshall
Lovin' That Strategy
Seems Ron Paul has pretty much smoked Rudy in Iowa. With about 2/3 reporting, Paul's got about 10% and Rudy's bringing up the rear with a healthy 4%.
Will Fox let him debate?
--Josh Marshall
100 Years Here, 100 Years There
Just out from David Corn ...
The United States military could stay in Iraq for "maybe a hundred years" and that "would be fine with me," John McCain told two hundred or so people at a town hall meeting in Derry, New Hampshire, on Thursday evening. Toward the end of this session, which was being held shortly before the Iowa caucuses were to start, McCain was confronted by Dave Tiffany, who calls himself a "full-time antiwar activist." In a heated exchange, Tiffany told McCain that he had looked at McCain's campaign website and had found no indication of how long McCain was willing to keep U.S. troops in Iraq. Arguing that George W. Bush's escalation of troops has led to a decline in U.S. casualties, McCain noted that the United States still maintains troops in South Korea and Japan. He said he had no objection to U.S. soldiers staying in Iraq for decades, "as long as Americans are not being injured, harmed or killed."
--Josh Marshall
Ouch
I usually think of Gov. Romney being able to manage a phony, plastic smile and toss off a few lame jokes through even the most trying moment. But the interview he just did on Fox saying how cool it was that he was coming in second really challenged the Mittster's greatness.
--Josh Marshall
Stop The Madness
I guess people may have various reasons why they don't want Barack Obama to win the nomination. But there's one reason that wins out. If he wins it'll be years before Chris Matthews shuts up about Obama being a man of Third World.
Late Update: Gitlin similarly wonders what Matthews is smokin'.
--Josh Marshall
The Obama folks say they're expecting a turnout of 207k, which would be at the highest end of expectations.
I think 2004 was around 120k and that was considered a high turnout caucus.
--Josh Marshall
The McCain camp responds on the Mormon/Romney push poll brouhaha ...
U.S. Senator John McCain's New Hampshire Vice Chair, former Congressman Chuck Douglas (R-NH), today issued the following statement on his comments regarding the New Hampshire Attorney General's push-polling investigation:"In the course of calling on all campaigns to fully disclose any relationship they have or do not have with Moore Information, I suggested that the Romney campaign had possibly used the poll in question to message test. It was a mistake to suggest that this opinion was anyone's other than my own. I was speaking only for myself and not the McCain campaign and I regret any confusion my remarks caused."
--Josh Marshall
A timely post, to be sure: Ken Baer, who will be periodically reporting on the New Hampshire primary for TPMCafe, ponders elections predictions.
--David Kurtz
Flufftacular!
If Hillary only gets a third of the vote in Iowa it's a "resounding rejection." If McCain gets 18% he's a hero ...
We who are about to fluff, salute you!
Late Update: Hat tip to Atrios and Media Matters.
--Josh Marshall
Gettin' Weird
Here's something that's so strange and red flagish we weren't even quite sure what to say about it or how to package it as news. This afternoon the New Hampshire AG held a press conference asking for the public's help getting to the bottom of those anti-Mormon push poll allegations and revealing another polling firm tied to the polls. Now, the Romney campaign has responded with this statement ...
"The Romney campaign had nothing to do with these alleged push polling calls. It is reckless, irresponsible and egregious for the McCain campaign to even mention the Romney campaign in relation to these calls. If they have any proof, let's see it. If not, Senator McCain should immediately apologize for the actions of his own campaign."
As far as I know, the McCain folks haven't said anything about this today. So what is Romney even responding to?
Like I said, we're not quite sure to make of this other than it's a lot of bluster without much substance.
Late Update: Actually, it turns out that a McCain surrogate did attack Romney on this today.
--Josh Marshall
Rudy Suddenly Taking N.H. Seriously
Tom Edsall reports:
With his "late state strategy" slowly imploding, Rudy Giuliani now plans to campaign full-time from this Friday through next Tuesday's primary in a last ditch drive for a face-saving showing in New Hampshire, where his chances of winning have inexorably eroded over the past four months. . . ."There is one very good word to describe Rudy's 'late state' strategy," Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who is not affiliated with any presidential campaign, told the Huffington Post: "Implausible." Another unaffiliated GOP pollster, Neil Newhouse, gave HuffPost his own view of Giuliani's current status: "Almost an afterthought."
John Weaver, the Texan who was chief strategist for John McCain, but who is now is not working for any candidate, compared Giuliani's strategy to that of Union Civil War General George McClellan: "McClellan, a lot of song and dance, beautiful parades and bold strategies. But at the end of the day. it never amounted to anything."
--David Kurtz
Just a Coincidence?
So we've got a little more to chew on on that old favorite, the mystery anti-Mormon push polls and who did them. The new info is that the next firm up the food chain is called Moore-Information, based out of Portland, Oregon. They're fighting the New Hampshire AG's subpoenas. And they turn out to have at least some ties back to Romney. Back in 2006, when Romney was head of the Republican Governors Association, the great majority of FEC-reported disbursements to Moore came from contracts from the RGA.
Remember, other company already in the news, the one Moore-Information hired, Western Wats also had ties to Romney.
It's very tenuous and could easily be coincidence. But a really unlucky one, I guess, if you're Mitt.
--Josh Marshall