The Big Question
For my part, I would have vastly preferred to see Mike Huckabee win this thing tonight. But McCain's victory tonight does set us up to get an answer to an important question: just how much enmity is there for John McCain among base Republican voters?
A few days ago, Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show that "we" find John McCain "unacceptable." Yesterday the disgraced former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay said that "McCain has done more to hurt the Republican party than any elected official I know of."
I don't know how much juice DeLay has among Republicans these days. But as big a buffoon as he may be, I think having Rush Limbaugh saying you're unacceptable on the radio every day is a real obstacle to consolidating the support of the Republican party. Nor is it just Limbaugh; there's a deep enmity toward McCain, especially among a lot of the right-wing national press.
But how deep does that really cut? Especially if polls show, as I suspect they will, that McCain is the strongest general election opponent? I don't know the answer to that question. I don't have the cite. But a poll that came out soon after his New Hampshire win seemed to show that there wasn't much of a core of opposition to McCain among Republicans nationwide.
I think a lot of the establishment types in the GOP would rather go with Romney. And I think it's a very open question how well McCain will do if this becomes a head to head race between McCain and Romney.
There's also the issue of open and closed primaries. South Carolina, like Michigan and New Hampshire, but not many of the coming primaries, is an open primary. But if you look at the numbers tonight, John McCain lost Republicans by one point to Mike Huckabee.
There aren't many open primaries left. And to best of my knowledge McCain has not won once this year among Republicans. He loses among Republicans and makes it up with big support from Independents.
All that said, if you're looking forward to a Democratic White House in 2009, I don't think this was a good night. Far better had Huck taken it.
--Josh Marshall
Squirrelly
TPM Reader RS: "Is it possible that Huckabee insulted South Carolina voters with his comments? ‘Shucks, I’m a hick, just like you’ might not be the best way to introduce yourself to an electorate."
--Josh Marshall
Not Feeling the Huckmentum
A lot of readers have pointed out that the upcountry areas where Huckabee should be strong either hadn't reported yet or were just starting to. But according to this page, more than a third of Greenville County has now reported in and it's tied 27%-27% between Huck and McCain. If Huckabee isn't even winning there, that can't be a good sign.
Late Update: Had just posted this when I saw John King talking about this on CNN. And he pointed a key issue in Greenville -- the normally somnolent Fred Thompson has 18% in Greenville. So it seems Thompson may have provided a critical assist to McCain by splitting the evangelical vote and keeping Huck's number down to 30% or less.
--Josh Marshall
Fred ...
The big dramatic tension at the moment is whether this incredibly ponderous Fred Thompson is in the process of giving a dropping out speech. Fox was sticking with it. But then Fred wouldn't get to the point. So for a while they cut away for something else.
Late Update: He finished without saying one way or another whether he was out. But the tone and tense of the speech made it pretty clear he's done.
Don't Get Much Later for Fred Update: Not surprisingly, Fred's campaign is sending out signals that he's packing it in.
--Josh Marshall
Sigh
Is McCain actually going to pull this out? The early exit polls seem to show him with a narrow lead over Huck. Deeply disappointing.
Late Update: Hope is not lost. Huckmentum could still take the day.
--Josh Marshall
Deep in the Weeds
A number of readers have flagged reports that Barack Obama actually won more delegates than Hillary (13 to 12) not withstanding the fact that Clinton won more state delegates and -- according to the exit polls -- a plurality of people who showed up to caucus. State delegates, national convention delegates, it gets kind of complicated. We're trying to see if we can confirm this. Hillary just had some brief remarks in which she seemed to concede that it wasn't clear who won more national convention delegates. We'll bring you more when we can get confirmation one way or another.
Late Update: Greg Sargent was on the Obama conference call where they made their argument.
--Josh Marshall
Crack Pipe
I do find myself wondering what sort of crack Chris Matthews is smoking during the station breaks. He was just describing Hillary's win in Nevada, saying she beat expectations that Obama was going to take it. Olbermann then helpfully pointed out that Hillary was actually ahead in all the polls.
--Josh Marshall
Bill
I don't have a good answer to this. I don't expect Bill Clinton, who's not a shrinking violet, to be neutral in his own wife's nomination campaign. But I have to admit that the intensity of Bill Clinton's attacks on Barack Obama really makes me uncomfortable. I know there are a lot of Democratic party insiders, mostly older than I am, who don't like it either. But I wonder if there's not some generational aspect to it for people my age. I was in my early 20s in 1992. And really throughout the 90s you couldn't be a bigger Clinton guy than I was. So it's hard to see that history (and it's quite some history) leveraged to muscle this campaign.
--Josh Marshall
MSNBC says 58% of SC GOP primary voters ID'd themselves as evangelicals.
--Josh Marshall
CNN: McCain camp looking for a judge to keep polls open late in South Carolina.
Late Update: McCain's South Carolina spokesperson walks this story back in an interview with TPM Election Central. Bottom line: lawyers for the campaign are still considering their options, and CNN's source "did not have all the necessary information."
--Josh Marshall
Those Casino Caucuses
This may be the big story out of the Nevada on the Democratic side. A huge amount of the coverage of this race over the last week or so fed off the Culinary Union endorsement of Obama and the expectation that Obama would thus clean up in those controversial casino strip at-large caucus sites. Well, didn't happen. Hillary carried at least 6 of the 9 at large caucuses.
--Josh Marshall
Edwards
Another big story out of today's showing on the Democratic side is the very disappointing showing for John Edwards. With 73% reporting, he was 4%.
It's important to note that a significant factor here is the viability threshold as they had in Iowa. A look at the entrance polls shows the first choice number for him was probably a shade over 10%.
--Josh Marshall
More Entrance Polls
A little more from the CNN entrance polls.
Among African-Americans: Clinton 16%, Obama 79%
Among Hispanics: Clinton 64%, Obama 24%
--Josh Marshall
First Entrance Numbers
CNN has just posted the Dem entrance polls.
On their face they show a very strong showing for Hillary. And the breakdown of demographics strikes me as stunning on age and gender.
Male 42%, Female 58%. On age, 68% are over 45. 36% over 60.
If earlier contests are any indicator, that's really bad news for Obama.
We've gotten an unconfirmed report that these numbers do not include those controversial casino strip caucus locations. We're trying to confirm that as we speak.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Entrance Poll
NBC is reporting that Hillary Clinton had a "significant lead" in the initial preference in Nevada, according to the entrance polls.
But remember, Nevada operates like Iowa. Candidates have to reach a viability threshold of their supporters must either opt out or choose another candidate. Edwards has dropped pretty low in the late polls. So where his supporters go is a significant wildcard.
--Josh Marshall
A Release out from the McCain campaign South Carolina State Director Buzz Jacobs ...
"We have received reports from Horry County that voters are being turned away from the polls, because electronic voting machines are not working and paper ballots are not available. Some voters say they are being instructed to return at a later time. We are disturbed by these reports and hope that this issue is resolved immediately. We encourage any voters who were turned away from the polls to return again to their polling place this afternoon to exercise their constitutional right to vote."
--Josh Marshall
What's Next
The GOP results in Nevada are trickling in, as you can see to the right there.
The Democratic caucus there just got underway at the top of the hour. Results won't start coming in for at least an hour--maybe closer to two. But this is new for Nevada, so the exact timetable is yet to be determined.
Greg Sargent is blogging the results as they come in over at Election Central.
Keep checking back. We'll bring you the latest.
--David Kurtz
MITTMENTUM!
Just about everyone is projecting Mitt Romney will win the Nevada caucus, based on entrance polls.
At this point, just after 1 p.m. ET, no actual vote tallies have yet been reported.
--David Kurtz
Report from the Ground ...
From TPM Reader TK ...
I live in Spartanburg, SC (the upstate) and drove around to look at a couple of polling spots in our area this morning. They were absolutely dead. One or two cars at each place. If you didn't know there was an election going on, you'd never be able to tell driving by: no signs, no campaign workers, no voters. So far the weather isn't bad. It is cold and rainy, but no sleet or snow in the upstate as of noon. Plenty of folks were at the grocery store and my daughter's basketball game this morning so the weather is not keeping people inside.
--Josh Marshall
Zogby's Final Numbers
John Zogby has his final numbers out for South Carolina. And things are looking really good for Mike Huckabee. As I noted last night, John McCain has been leading all the polls since New Hampshire. But the final few days have shown a swing back toward Huckabee. And this final survey shows the same trend. Zogby's poll yesterday had McCain at 29% and Huckabee at 22%. Today's has it McCain 27% and Huckabee 26%.
Needless to say that still has McCain slightly ahead. And these movements are within the margin of error. However, this same trend has shown up in several separate surveys. And the two final ones both show Huck either pulling even or moving ahead.
The pattern in each of these races has been for the candidate with the momentum at the end to overshoot his or her numbers. So, as I said, this could be a good night for Huckabee. And if Huckabee wins it'll leave the Republican race in even more of a mess than it already is.
Cry me a river.
--Josh Marshall
Down to the Wire ...
As I mentioned earlier, the whole TPM crew is going to be working tomorrow, bringing you the results as they come in from the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary (the Dems hold theirs next Saturday). And the race I'm most interested in is the South Carolina primary.
We have the final polls listed here.
The gist is that McCain has been in the lead in the last 16 polls released. McCain jumped into the lead right after New Hampshire. But the trend clearly seems to be swinging back to Huckabee.
Late Update: One final poll from ARG out late this evening has Huckabee vaulting ahead of McCain. From a poll taken just two days before it has Huckabee picking up ten points and McCain dropping 7 -- for a final Huck 33%, McCain 26% tally. ARG has, it must be said, a really bad record of predictions so far this year. But my take away from this is less the absolute number than the shift in Huckabee's direction -- something found in a number of polls over the last two or three days. Another factor is the weather, which is supposed to be downright terrible tomorrow. Depending on where you are it will either be snowing or pouring cold rain. There's really no way to know what that does or who it helps. But the conventional wisdom is that it helps Huckabee whose supporters, the state's evangelical voters, are more impassioned and enthusiastic.
--Josh Marshall
Pot & Kettle Convention
Disgraced former Majority Leader Tom DeLay: "McCain has done more to hurt the Republican party than any elected official I know of."
Special thanks to TPM Reader SB for the tip.
--Josh Marshall
A Rudy by Any Other Name
TPM Reader AMS driven to literary heights ...
Something worth noting about the Giuliani campaign:As we've seen Rudy hemorrhage support and lose increasingly embarrassing primary after primary, the 9/11 focused rhetoric of his campaign has sunk far below the line of self-parody into some kind of bizarro world—but most importantly, the degree of absurdity has increased with each subsequent loss.
We've still got Nevada and South Carolina to go before super Tuesday, both of which Rudy is absolutely sure to lose. That means that even if he somehow pulls out a victory in Florida, we are guaranteed at least another 10 days of increasingly hilarious self-deifying 9/11 exploitation. His ad today said that when "the world wavered" and "history hesitated, [Rudy] never did." It's hard to imagine how that rhetoric could be escalated any further, but finding solutions to those seemingly intractable problems is the hallmark of a man ready to be President.
The merging of self-immolation and self-aggrandizement here may be approaching the sublime.
--Josh Marshall
Rudy Strategy 8.0
From TPM Reader TN ...
I think the Rudy! strategy at this point looks like this: Lose every state. Claim you never really contested any of them. Hope for a brokered convention. At the convention, claim you are the only candidate who never really lost a primary or a caucus. Hope people fall for it. Win the nomination.
It's just crazy enough to work, isn't it?
Work? No. Stupid enough to be Rudy's next professed strategy? Yes.
--Josh Marshall
Watch the Caucuses/Primary With Us!!!
As you know, there are Republican and Democratic caucuses in Nevada tomorrow and a pivotal Republican primary in South Carolina. And we'll be bringing you breaking coverage all through the day tomorrow and into the evening.
We'll have our returns scoreboard up as we have on previous primary nights. So if you're a political junkie, we'll have you covered.
We expect the first results to come from the Republican caucuses a little before 1 PM Eastern tomorrow, with the Democratic numbers to follow a couple hours later.
In South Carolina the polls close at 7 PM Eastern.
Join us.
--Josh Marshall
Bad, But Not Worst
TPM Reader GC follows up on JW's Rudy commentary ...
Josh et al:It's fun to pile on Rudy (in the sense of hysterically laughing after narrowly avoiding a car crash), but, historically, it's clear that Gary Hart in '88 and Ted Kennedy in '80 were both polling higher (Kennedy's numbers, in particular, are stunning in retrospect) than Giuliani ever did.
Just trying to keep a small sense of perspective on a Friday.
I haven't gone back and reviewed the numbers. But I think Rudy is at least in serious competition for worst presidential campaign ever, even in the face of these worthies. Hart, of course, was knocked out because of a sex scandal. So I would say that this is the campaign evaluation equivalent of a force majeure. It's sort of beyond the scope of the campaign per se. With Kennedy, I think you've got to take into account the fact that he was running against an incumbent president, albeit a profoundly weakened one. And this has proved almost an impossibility in American history.
Now, we don't have the Rudy campaign post-mortem yet. But if things go as they're looking, I believe Rudy will have a robust claim to worst ever not so much on the basis of his top poll numbers but on the rate and magnitude of the fall. Kennedy, after all, did get plenty of delegates. Carter just beat him.
The thing with Rudy is that he was the dominant frontrunner for a year. He raised tons of money, actually shaped the whole race. Contrary to what he's claimed he campaigned extensively in Iowa and extremely aggressively in New Hampshire. The strategy he now claims is simply an ex-post facto rationalization of the fact that he got his ass royally kicked in both states. Indeed, we've now had three major contests in the Republican race and Rudy has yet to bag a single delegate.
Now, despite the fact that I think Rudy's campaign has basically flatlined, Eric Kleefeld and I just looked at the numbers out of Florida, and the extreme weakness of the rest of the field has at least made it possible that Rudy win Florida. McCain's ahead there now and Rudy's back in the pack in second or third. But McCain's losing ground in South Carolina. So if Romney takes Nevada and Huck takes SC, perhaps Rudy could stride forward amidst the bodies and take first in Florida. Not likely, but not impossible.
So perhaps he'll pull it out in Florida and then lose respectably on Super Tuesday. At the moment though, we're well into the process and he's gone from the dominant frontrunner, with tens of millions of dollars, to an also-ran, often running behind Ron Paul.
Remember, again, here's the big picture on his numbers in the important states and nationwide ...
--Josh Marshall
Sui Generis
From TPM Reader JW ...
Rudy’s collapse is the mark of the worst presidential campaign in history. Think about it: Rudy Gulliani was the national frontrunner a year ago in many, many polls. He led virtually all of his Republican opponents, and several of the top Democratic candidates as well. Today, he has been drubbed in every race and is left in a do-or-die situation in Florida. Two of histories previous “worst” campaigns, Texans John Connally and Phil Gramm, were never considered the front-runners, never led in any polls and never had the continued, recent national exposure that Rudy has enjoyed. They spent far less money and accomplished really the same results. Generations of political historians will pick at the Rudy 08 corpse and wonder what the hell happened. Losing is one thing, but this glorious flameout is one for the ages.
--Josh Marshall
Friday Clip Mashtravaganza
There were a lot of humorous and/or ridiculous campaign moments this week, so we've started a new weekly Friday roundup of all the choicest clips of the week past. Squirrel eating, candidate constipation and how Rudy has become like the Black Knight from Monty Python's Holy Grail ...
--Josh Marshall
Hercules
Rudy has a new ad out. And this time he's gone so far as to use actual 9/11 footage.
As you can imagine, at this point Rudy's campaign has descended to become a sort of desperate 9/11 primal scream.
But the words of this ad really take Rudy's 9/11 megalomania to a new level. Against video of the towers falling, discussing Rudy's role in the 9/11 drama, the announcer intones ...
"And when the world wavered, and history hesitated, he never did."
Does it even require snark and commentary? The world wavered and only Rudy brought us through? Even history hesitated?
--Josh Marshall
50 Ways To Be A Loser
I know I've been hitting on the Rudy collapse story for a while. But it's just so vast there are a lot of points to cover. Remember that the Rudy 'plan' (which on many levels is a phony one anyway) was to plan for a knockout blow in February by winning big states like California. And for a long time Rudy had a commanding lead there, double digits as of the end of last year.
Rasmussen has a poll out today that has Rudy in 5th place at 11%. Another poll, from a couple days earlier, had him in second place with 18%.
But the rankings aren't as contradictory as they sound. The key is that over the last two months Rudy has coughed up a huge double digit lead and fallen back either into a clump of also-ran candidates or into near last place behind the also-ran candidates.
Late Update: For some more perspective, here's a graph Pollster.com just posted showing Rudy's falling poll numbers in the major primary states and nationally. The two blue lines up top are New York and New Jersey.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
The White House's evolving story on the lost emails: We lost those emails … no, we didn't … well, maybe we did--but can you prove it?
--David Kurtz
Burns Stepping Down
U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the number three U.S. diplomat, is expected to step down for personal reasons in an announcement to be made on Friday, a U.S. official said.
--David Kurtz
Snake Eyes
The LA Times picks up on a pivot point between the Obama and Clinton candidacies:
Barack Obama has warned about the dangers of gambling -- that it carries a "moral and social cost" that could "devastate" poor communities. As a state senator in Illinois, he at times opposed plans to expand gambling, worrying that it could be especially harmful to low-income people.Today, those views are posing a problem for Obama in the gambling mecca of Nevada, which holds its presidential nominating caucuses Saturday. While his top rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, also talks often about aiding low-income Americans, she has embraced the gambling industry and its executives, and her campaign has used Obama's past statements in an effort to turn casino workers and other Nevada voters against him.
The split on gambling between the Democratic rivals is a little-noticed but meaningful development that could affect the caucus vote Saturday and the broader election …
--David Kurtz
Back On The Market
TPM reader AM ponders Rudy's future ...
I've seen some discussion of the effect of this election on Rudy's consulting business, but recall that he was also making big bucks on the motivation/inspiration seminar circuit. In fact, that's why he was unable to attend 9/11 commission meetings (irony noted). I wonder, given how he's run his primary campaign, how much demand there will be for him in that arena in the future.
--Josh Marshall
Huckmentum
Don't look now but Mike Huckabee has pulled even with John McCain in the GOP South Carolina primary with just two days to go.
--Josh Marshall
Must See (Trainwreck) TV
Not sure what he heard or what he was told or who got on his case, but Chris Matthews just gave one of the weirdest, 'I'm for the little guy', 'I love politics', 'women rock' half-defensive, half contrite apologies I've heard in some time in the lead in to Hardball just now. It was for his recent claim that Hillary only got where she is today because Bill cheated on her.
And here it is ...
Late Update: In case you missed what the apology was about, it's this video from last week ...
--Josh Marshall
Kucinich Preying on Simple Minds
It's actually kind of sad seeing Dennis Kucinich stooping so low as to bamboozle his devoted followers. I suppose there are many reasons to love Dennis Kucinich. And yet poll leader is really not one of them. Admittedly he has consistently outpolled Mike Gravel. But I'm pretty sure he hasn't outpolled any of the other Democrats in the race. Nor should we forgot that that tally includes public support powerhouses like Sens. Dodd and Biden. And yet in the last few days we've started getting a steady stream of emails from Kucinich supporters asking why we don't publish the polls where Kucinich is in the lead. In fact, one reader said that all the polls she's seen have Dennis in the lead and we're no better than the MSM for keeping them secret.
So I asked one of the emailers what the deal was and I was directed to this section of the Kucinich website entitled "The polls you may have missed."
Says the site ...
Time after time after time, Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has topped every other candidate in major polls that the major media have either downplayed, dismissed or ignored completely. So, for the benefit of anyone who wonders about the strength and depth of Dennis's support all across the country, take a look for yourselves.
Needless to say the polls are bogus website 'polls' where anybody can vote a million times, not 'polls' as the term is understood in the reality-based universe.
So, for the record, we are not censoring news about Kucinich being in the lead for the nomination. These are not real polls. Admittedly, we have done our best to squelch news about the Kucinich surge. But we're always by the books with reporting polls.
--Josh Marshall
Bush: My Job Is Not To Defend Our NIE
Last night on Fox, the President abandoned all pretense in dismissing the Iran NIE:
(h/t to Think Progress)
--David Kurtz
Rudy's Crash
We get an extended take on the GOP race from TPM Reader AB:
Based on the numbers at Pollster.com, it would seem that in just about every state Rudy is shedding voters faster than you (or he) can say “9/11”. How are all these ex-rudites breaking? Rudy’s affinity groups seem to me to be militarists, secular/socially liberal republicans (ie, don’t care so much about abortion flip flops or shag) and the generally uninformed who respond to pollsters “Rudy” based on a vague memory of him somehow being a hero in the 9/11 attacks.It would seem that the secular/socially liberal set would tend to break Romney, who also has shown inexcusable tolerance in the past. Militarists I see primarily going McCain. Romney talks a “good” game on muscular executive power but doesn’t have the warmongering rep of someone who actually dropped bombs on a country. Finally, the generally uninformed are a bit of a wild card as there is always the danger that they actually start paying attention and vote with their more informed affinity. McCain probably has the initial advantage with this set due to higher name recognition but that advantage is rapidly eroding.
McCain is the big winner from the Rudy collapse, and may become the nominee due, as Homer Simpson said: “the two best words in the English language: “De Fault." My bet however is on Huckabee. He has the advantage of actually seeming to attract people rather than just pick up lifeboats from other campaigns. Plus, as his name recognition improves in each state the generally uninformed will gravitate towards his friendly demeanor. If he can manage to increase his ratings with the militarists without losing too much of the Heart in Huckabee, he has a fairly good chance to win it.
On the other hand, If Rudy were to pull out sooner rather than later and threw his remaining supporters to McCain or Romney then that could very well seal it up for either. Thus there is a possible silver lining for Rudy’s disastrous campaign: the chance to become a king maker of sorts. Will it be enough to attract shag and swag post campaign? I don’t know, but pulling out now can’t possibly be worse than the embarrassment of losing in New York, not to mention losing almost everywhere to the black sheep Ron Paul.
--David Kurtz
Democrats will be caucusing on the Vegas Strip Saturday, a Nevada court rules.
--David Kurtz
Reality Kicks Parody's Sorry Ass
On Tuesday night I updated you on the latest results in the pitched battle between Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani in the Michigan primary. As you know, Paul ended up getting twice the votes Rudy got in Michigan and now also has twice as many delegates as Rudy has -- 2 to 1. The small number overall admittedly made it a cinch for me to come up with the percentage difference.
But until last night I thought the Rudy v. Paul fringe candidate cage match was just a figment of my political imagination. That was when we heard from TPM Reader EM down in Columbia, South Carolina who'd just gotten what we at first thought was an anti-Rudy robocall from Ron Paul's campaign. On closer inspection it seems that it was actually a live caller, reading an attack script.
It seemed odd given Paul's devotion to Austrian economics that he would embrace the palpable inefficiencies associated with manually calling gazillions of South Carolinians with actual phone calls rather than automating the process. But then it was pointed out to me that the Paul campaign, judged as an economic actor likely has excess capacity when it comes to hyped-up anti-Fed gun rights supporters with too much time on their hands and willing to work the phone banks. After all, how else can you explain the decision to dedicate such resources to spamming youtube? So it may actually make sense. In any case, check out the latest from the Paul/Rudy mano a mano ...
--Josh Marshall
Out of the Frying Pan ...
"So it's ok to slather a squirrel in oil and fry it on a popcorn popper, but not to marry and have sex with it? That hardly seems fair."
That was one readers comment in response to Mike Huckabee's new statement equating gay marriage and bestiality.
--Josh Marshall
Edwards' Media Strategy
From TPM Reader AM:
In response to [the] piece on the Edwards media blackout:I served as an advisor for the Edwards campaign on its energy/environmental platform and when we met with John and Elizabeth back in October, he made it very clear that his strategy was to ride the wave of media coverage following a victory in Iowa. It actually sort of played to his advantage that the media gave him scant coverage in advance of Iowa because the "surprise" win would have received major airplay in the days leading into New Hampshire. But Edwards is caught in a maelstrom that he couldn't effectively counter... two very strong candidates, one of whom (Obama) grabbed the mantle of being the change candidate. Edwards couldn't differentiate himself enough from Obama and didn't get the much needed win in Iowa. He then made a strategic gamble that backfired when he tried to knock Clinton out of the race and make it a two-man show with Obama. Not only did Clinton surprise everyone, I believe Edwards attacks on her in the debate and his comments about her tearing up actually helped her.
While I think there's something here to the idea of the corporate media ignoring his candidacy because of his message, there's more to this story.
Late Update: Not so fast, says TPM Reader KJ:
With all due respect, I think reader AM has it backwards: the year-long media blackout of Edwards in 2007 was clearly what forced Edwards into making that "strategic gamble" (as AM called it) on Iowa.It can't be said to have backfired, because it wasn't really a gamble - by that point, Edwards had no other plausible choice but to stake everything on Iowa.
Later Update: The Edwards camp has put out a video about the media ignoring him:
Greg Sargent has more at The Horse's Mouth.
--David Kurtz
John C. Calhoun Would Be Proud
You never want to admit you were about to lose faith. But I was starting to think that South Carolina was going to let me down this year and not gin up some attacks about candidates' mandatory homosexuality or infant vivisection. But it looks like they're finally getting down to some good ole 'experiments on unborn children' contrast calls.
--Josh Marshall
Reprise of 2006 Nastiness
Robocalls in South Carolina accuse McCain of supporting experiments on unborn babies.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Campaign Roundup #9
In today's episode we examine how the GOP is grappling with the fact that it's actually got to nominate one of these guys ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
If you check your morning paper, most of them have a story about John McCain standing tall and fighting back against horrible negative campaigning down in South Carolina, especially with that flyer attacking McCain's war record. But as near as we can tell the flyer or mailer actually isn't a flyer or mailer because it was never fly'd or mailed to anyone. The guy behind it just mailed it to a lot of newspaper editors. Then the McCain camp got in the act by publicizing the 'smear' with a big press release. And everything kind of went from there. Paul Kiel has all the shocking details in today's Must Read.
--Josh Marshall
911911911
Will the FEC rule that Rudy can't say '9/11' anymore if he loses the New York primary?
--Josh Marshall
Fluff Watch
WaPo: "McCain Takes the Fight To Negative Opponents"
Come up with your own WaPo headline?
--Josh Marshall
Joe: GOP Good for the Jews
From the Miami Herald ...
Joe Lieberman, the one-time Democrat who narrowly lost the vice presidency, stumped in South Florida for a Republican presidential candidate this evening, putting his former party on alert: The GOP is after the Jewish vote.Lieberman told about 200 Republican Jewish activists that he's backing John McCain because his fellow senator and Iraq war hawk best understands the nature of the radical Islamic threat faced by ''our ally Israel'' -- while much of the Democratic Party has forsaken it.
''The Democratic Party, I believe, respectfully, has left the strongest roots of its foreign policy and national security,'' Lieberman said, adding that McCain ``has always believed that Israel is our natural ally, from the beginning of its modern existence to this day in the war against Islamic extremists and terrorists.''
--Josh Marshall
Truth Will Set You Free
By a process of elimination, Kevin Drum sees the light of Mittmentum.
--Josh Marshall
Robo Ergo Sum
Interesting. I just got robo-polled for the first time. Turned out to be from Rasmussen. When I saw the caller ID I thought it might be an actual call to me. But alas, I was to be polled. Six minutes eight seconds of my time. Relatively painless.
Late Update: Canvassing Manhattan? From TPM Reader JG ...
Hi Josh,Regular (daily) reader here.
Anyhow, I also just got my first robocall ever, from Rasmussen - and I also live in Manhattan.
It seemed a little strange when I saw your post, and made me wonder if Rasmussen is doing an NYC based poll, or a really large state poll, or if perhaps they are testing a new phone list. The poll itself was pretty innocuous, so I'm not suggesting anything
sinister. It was just surprising in a "What are the odds?" kind of way.Anyway, I just thought it would be a good idea to forward this on as a data point, in case any other readers also report the same experience.
--Josh Marshall
John Who?
What's the deal with the John Edwards media blackout?
(More than a few readers have pointedly asked TPM the same thing.)
--David Kurtz
Secret Plan to Win the Presidency
New South Carolina GOP primary poll out from Clemson University. McCain (29%), Huck (22%), Romney (13%) ... Rudy suckin' wind at 3%.
--Josh Marshall
Seems Like a Stretch
A Ron Paul victory in Nevada?
From the AP:
No major GOP candidate has set foot in the state for two months, and some Republicans are bracing for a possible surprise first-place showing by long-shot Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the only Republican to broadcast TV ads in Nevada.
--David Kurtz
When Wingnuts Attack (Each Other)
Are the smear artists down in South Carolina who are smearing John McCain trying to sully the good name of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth? Believe me, this one takes a few moments to explain. Paul Kiel gets to the bottom of it here.
--Josh Marshall
Fried Squirrel: I'm Loving It!
Mike Huckabee explains how he'll appeal to SC voters by explaining how he and his crew ate fried squirrel made in a popcorn popper in college ...
--Josh Marshall
Debate Thoughts
With all the commotion and Mittmentum last night I didn't have a chance to register any general views about the debate. As others have noted the big news was the across the board attempt to lower the temperature of the attacks and potential racial division -- something that whipped up like a brush fire late last week and quicker than I think anyone could have predicted threatened to do serious damage to whoever becomes the national standard-bearer.
More generally, I thought the debate stood out for the quality of the discussion and how well each of the candidates did. Each made a good argument for their candidacy -- both in argument and tone. If there was a big loser it was pretty obviously Tim Russert who generally got disrespected by each of the candidates for his pretentious and generally feeble questions.
If I were scoring I'd possibly give a slight nod to Obama for two simple reasons. First, debates are not his best medium. And he did better than earlier ones. Second, I thought he came off as Hillary's equal in terms of heft, experience, gravitas, etc. Hillary's claim of an advantage on this counts -- whether you buy that argument or not -- remains her key advantage in this race. So in this sense, I thought Obama helped himself most.
Hillary also had a good night. I know many others think she took it; and they may be right. Edwards was also strong, though I think the polls are showing the window is rapidly closing.
Make up your own mind? Here are some highlights from last night to see for yourself ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
Late Update: TPM Read HR says ... "Josh, TPM has been my first and most frequent stop for years, but I think you missed what happened last night. Clinton completely outflanked Obama on Iraq, moving the issue from one of past judgment to one of current leadership. She was also in general much more commanding and crisp. A clear win. See Arianna’s analysis, and she is no Clinton booster."
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
The WaPo has the best rundown yet on why the CIA torture tapes were made, when they were made, and why they were destroyed.
--David Kurtz
John Kerry: Let the People Vote!
You may have heard about this lawsuit brought by Clinton supporters in Nevada trying to change the rules at the last minute in the Nevada caucus because Barack Obama managed to snag the highly coveted Culinary Union endorsement.
As I've noted earlier, it stinks to high heaven.
Now Sen. Kerry (D-MA) sounds off about this attempt to disenfranchise the casino workers in a new post at TPMCafe.
It's a tough piece. Give it a read. This is a critically important issue that is about no less than keeping Democrats on the right side of the right to vote.
--Josh Marshall
Even Losing Murdoch
I know you may come to TPM for some of the finest anti-Rudy snark to be found in print these days. But look at what Murdoch's own (generally) Rudy-loving New York Post is saying ...
But there's only one GOP candidate that beats all the rest at being a loser: Rudy Giuliani.He has perfected the art of underperforming to the point that his campaign now insists it was all part of his game plan.
He's been reduced to watching from the sidelines and praying for other people to lose - like McCain in Michigan so his momentum would be stalled - rather than getting in the game and winning himself.
In fact, Rudy's campaigned so badly th