The Big Question
For my part, I would have vastly preferred to see Mike Huckabee win this thing tonight. But McCain's victory tonight does set us up to get an answer to an important question: just how much enmity is there for John McCain among base Republican voters?
A few days ago, Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show that "we" find John McCain "unacceptable." Yesterday the disgraced former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay said that "McCain has done more to hurt the Republican party than any elected official I know of."
I don't know how much juice DeLay has among Republicans these days. But as big a buffoon as he may be, I think having Rush Limbaugh saying you're unacceptable on the radio every day is a real obstacle to consolidating the support of the Republican party. Nor is it just Limbaugh; there's a deep enmity toward McCain, especially among a lot of the right-wing national press.
But how deep does that really cut? Especially if polls show, as I suspect they will, that McCain is the strongest general election opponent? I don't know the answer to that question. I don't have the cite. But a poll that came out soon after his New Hampshire win seemed to show that there wasn't much of a core of opposition to McCain among Republicans nationwide.
I think a lot of the establishment types in the GOP would rather go with Romney. And I think it's a very open question how well McCain will do if this becomes a head to head race between McCain and Romney.
There's also the issue of open and closed primaries. South Carolina, like Michigan and New Hampshire, but not many of the coming primaries, is an open primary. But if you look at the numbers tonight, John McCain lost Republicans by one point to Mike Huckabee.
There aren't many open primaries left. And to best of my knowledge McCain has not won once this year among Republicans. He loses among Republicans and makes it up with big support from Independents.
All that said, if you're looking forward to a Democratic White House in 2009, I don't think this was a good night. Far better had Huck taken it.
--Josh Marshall
Squirrelly
TPM Reader RS: "Is it possible that Huckabee insulted South Carolina voters with his comments? ‘Shucks, I’m a hick, just like you’ might not be the best way to introduce yourself to an electorate."
--Josh Marshall
Not Feeling the Huckmentum
A lot of readers have pointed out that the upcountry areas where Huckabee should be strong either hadn't reported yet or were just starting to. But according to this page, more than a third of Greenville County has now reported in and it's tied 27%-27% between Huck and McCain. If Huckabee isn't even winning there, that can't be a good sign.
Late Update: Had just posted this when I saw John King talking about this on CNN. And he pointed a key issue in Greenville -- the normally somnolent Fred Thompson has 18% in Greenville. So it seems Thompson may have provided a critical assist to McCain by splitting the evangelical vote and keeping Huck's number down to 30% or less.
--Josh Marshall
Fred ...
The big dramatic tension at the moment is whether this incredibly ponderous Fred Thompson is in the process of giving a dropping out speech. Fox was sticking with it. But then Fred wouldn't get to the point. So for a while they cut away for something else.
Late Update: He finished without saying one way or another whether he was out. But the tone and tense of the speech made it pretty clear he's done.
Don't Get Much Later for Fred Update: Not surprisingly, Fred's campaign is sending out signals that he's packing it in.
--Josh Marshall
Sigh
Is McCain actually going to pull this out? The early exit polls seem to show him with a narrow lead over Huck. Deeply disappointing.
Late Update: Hope is not lost. Huckmentum could still take the day.
--Josh Marshall
Deep in the Weeds
A number of readers have flagged reports that Barack Obama actually won more delegates than Hillary (13 to 12) not withstanding the fact that Clinton won more state delegates and -- according to the exit polls -- a plurality of people who showed up to caucus. State delegates, national convention delegates, it gets kind of complicated. We're trying to see if we can confirm this. Hillary just had some brief remarks in which she seemed to concede that it wasn't clear who won more national convention delegates. We'll bring you more when we can get confirmation one way or another.
Late Update: Greg Sargent was on the Obama conference call where they made their argument.
--Josh Marshall
Crack Pipe
I do find myself wondering what sort of crack Chris Matthews is smoking during the station breaks. He was just describing Hillary's win in Nevada, saying she beat expectations that Obama was going to take it. Olbermann then helpfully pointed out that Hillary was actually ahead in all the polls.
--Josh Marshall
Bill
I don't have a good answer to this. I don't expect Bill Clinton, who's not a shrinking violet, to be neutral in his own wife's nomination campaign. But I have to admit that the intensity of Bill Clinton's attacks on Barack Obama really makes me uncomfortable. I know there are a lot of Democratic party insiders, mostly older than I am, who don't like it either. But I wonder if there's not some generational aspect to it for people my age. I was in my early 20s in 1992. And really throughout the 90s you couldn't be a bigger Clinton guy than I was. So it's hard to see that history (and it's quite some history) leveraged to muscle this campaign.
--Josh Marshall
MSNBC says 58% of SC GOP primary voters ID'd themselves as evangelicals.
--Josh Marshall
CNN: McCain camp looking for a judge to keep polls open late in South Carolina.
Late Update: McCain's South Carolina spokesperson walks this story back in an interview with TPM Election Central. Bottom line: lawyers for the campaign are still considering their options, and CNN's source "did not have all the necessary information."
--Josh Marshall
Those Casino Caucuses
This may be the big story out of the Nevada on the Democratic side. A huge amount of the coverage of this race over the last week or so fed off the Culinary Union endorsement of Obama and the expectation that Obama would thus clean up in those controversial casino strip at-large caucus sites. Well, didn't happen. Hillary carried at least 6 of the 9 at large caucuses.
--Josh Marshall
Edwards
Another big story out of today's showing on the Democratic side is the very disappointing showing for John Edwards. With 73% reporting, he was 4%.
It's important to note that a significant factor here is the viability threshold as they had in Iowa. A look at the entrance polls shows the first choice number for him was probably a shade over 10%.
--Josh Marshall
More Entrance Polls
A little more from the CNN entrance polls.
Among African-Americans: Clinton 16%, Obama 79%
Among Hispanics: Clinton 64%, Obama 24%
--Josh Marshall
First Entrance Numbers
CNN has just posted the Dem entrance polls.
On their face they show a very strong showing for Hillary. And the breakdown of demographics strikes me as stunning on age and gender.
Male 42%, Female 58%. On age, 68% are over 45. 36% over 60.
If earlier contests are any indicator, that's really bad news for Obama.
We've gotten an unconfirmed report that these numbers do not include those controversial casino strip caucus locations. We're trying to confirm that as we speak.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Entrance Poll
NBC is reporting that Hillary Clinton had a "significant lead" in the initial preference in Nevada, according to the entrance polls.
But remember, Nevada operates like Iowa. Candidates have to reach a viability threshold of their supporters must either opt out or choose another candidate. Edwards has dropped pretty low in the late polls. So where his supporters go is a significant wildcard.
--Josh Marshall
A Release out from the McCain campaign South Carolina State Director Buzz Jacobs ...
"We have received reports from Horry County that voters are being turned away from the polls, because electronic voting machines are not working and paper ballots are not available. Some voters say they are being instructed to return at a later time. We are disturbed by these reports and hope that this issue is resolved immediately. We encourage any voters who were turned away from the polls to return again to their polling place this afternoon to exercise their constitutional right to vote."
--Josh Marshall
What's Next
The GOP results in Nevada are trickling in, as you can see to the right there.
The Democratic caucus there just got underway at the top of the hour. Results won't start coming in for at least an hour--maybe closer to two. But this is new for Nevada, so the exact timetable is yet to be determined.
Greg Sargent is blogging the results as they come in over at Election Central.
Keep checking back. We'll bring you the latest.
--David Kurtz
MITTMENTUM!
Just about everyone is projecting Mitt Romney will win the Nevada caucus, based on entrance polls.
At this point, just after 1 p.m. ET, no actual vote tallies have yet been reported.
--David Kurtz
Report from the Ground ...
From TPM Reader TK ...
I live in Spartanburg, SC (the upstate) and drove around to look at a couple of polling spots in our area this morning. They were absolutely dead. One or two cars at each place. If you didn't know there was an election going on, you'd never be able to tell driving by: no signs, no campaign workers, no voters. So far the weather isn't bad. It is cold and rainy, but no sleet or snow in the upstate as of noon. Plenty of folks were at the grocery store and my daughter's basketball game this morning so the weather is not keeping people inside.
--Josh Marshall
Zogby's Final Numbers
John Zogby has his final numbers out for South Carolina. And things are looking really good for Mike Huckabee. As I noted last night, John McCain has been leading all the polls since New Hampshire. But the final few days have shown a swing back toward Huckabee. And this final survey shows the same trend. Zogby's poll yesterday had McCain at 29% and Huckabee at 22%. Today's has it McCain 27% and Huckabee 26%.
Needless to say that still has McCain slightly ahead. And these movements are within the margin of error. However, this same trend has shown up in several separate surveys. And the two final ones both show Huck either pulling even or moving ahead.
The pattern in each of these races has been for the candidate with the momentum at the end to overshoot his or her numbers. So, as I said, this could be a good night for Huckabee. And if Huckabee wins it'll leave the Republican race in even more of a mess than it already is.
Cry me a river.
--Josh Marshall
Down to the Wire ...
As I mentioned earlier, the whole TPM crew is going to be working tomorrow, bringing you the results as they come in from the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary (the Dems hold theirs next Saturday). And the race I'm most interested in is the South Carolina primary.
We have the final polls listed here.
The gist is that McCain has been in the lead in the last 16 polls released. McCain jumped into the lead right after New Hampshire. But the trend clearly seems to be swinging back to Huckabee.
Late Update: One final poll from ARG out late this evening has Huckabee vaulting ahead of McCain. From a poll taken just two days before it has Huckabee picking up ten points and McCain dropping 7 -- for a final Huck 33%, McCain 26% tally. ARG has, it must be said, a really bad record of predictions so far this year. But my take away from this is less the absolute number than the shift in Huckabee's direction -- something found in a number of polls over the last two or three days. Another factor is the weather, which is supposed to be downright terrible tomorrow. Depending on where you are it will either be snowing or pouring cold rain. There's really no way to know what that does or who it helps. But the conventional wisdom is that it helps Huckabee whose supporters, the state's evangelical voters, are more impassioned and enthusiastic.
--Josh Marshall
Pot & Kettle Convention
Disgraced former Majority Leader Tom DeLay: "McCain has done more to hurt the Republican party than any elected official I know of."
Special thanks to TPM Reader SB for the tip.
--Josh Marshall
A Rudy by Any Other Name
TPM Reader AMS driven to literary heights ...
Something worth noting about the Giuliani campaign:As we've seen Rudy hemorrhage support and lose increasingly embarrassing primary after primary, the 9/11 focused rhetoric of his campaign has sunk far below the line of self-parody into some kind of bizarro world—but most importantly, the degree of absurdity has increased with each subsequent loss.
We've still got Nevada and South Carolina to go before super Tuesday, both of which Rudy is absolutely sure to lose. That means that even if he somehow pulls out a victory in Florida, we are guaranteed at least another 10 days of increasingly hilarious self-deifying 9/11 exploitation. His ad today said that when "the world wavered" and "history hesitated, [Rudy] never did." It's hard to imagine how that rhetoric could be escalated any further, but finding solutions to those seemingly intractable problems is the hallmark of a man ready to be President.
The merging of self-immolation and self-aggrandizement here may be approaching the sublime.
--Josh Marshall
Rudy Strategy 8.0
From TPM Reader TN ...
I think the Rudy! strategy at this point looks like this: Lose every state. Claim you never really contested any of them. Hope for a brokered convention. At the convention, claim you are the only candidate who never really lost a primary or a caucus. Hope people fall for it. Win the nomination.
It's just crazy enough to work, isn't it?
Work? No. Stupid enough to be Rudy's next professed strategy? Yes.
--Josh Marshall
Watch the Caucuses/Primary With Us!!!
As you know, there are Republican and Democratic caucuses in Nevada tomorrow and a pivotal Republican primary in South Carolina. And we'll be bringing you breaking coverage all through the day tomorrow and into the evening.
We'll have our returns scoreboard up as we have on previous primary nights. So if you're a political junkie, we'll have you covered.
We expect the first results to come from the Republican caucuses a little before 1 PM Eastern tomorrow, with the Democratic numbers to follow a couple hours later.
In South Carolina the polls close at 7 PM Eastern.
Join us.
--Josh Marshall
Bad, But Not Worst
TPM Reader GC follows up on JW's Rudy commentary ...
Josh et al:It's fun to pile on Rudy (in the sense of hysterically laughing after narrowly avoiding a car crash), but, historically, it's clear that Gary Hart in '88 and Ted Kennedy in '80 were both polling higher (Kennedy's numbers, in particular, are stunning in retrospect) than Giuliani ever did.
Just trying to keep a small sense of perspective on a Friday.
I haven't gone back and reviewed the numbers. But I think Rudy is at least in serious competition for worst presidential campaign ever, even in the face of these worthies. Hart, of course, was knocked out because of a sex scandal. So I would say that this is the campaign evaluation equivalent of a force majeure. It's sort of beyond the scope of the campaign per se. With Kennedy, I think you've got to take into account the fact that he was running against an incumbent president, albeit a profoundly weakened one. And this has proved almost an impossibility in American history.
Now, we don't have the Rudy campaign post-mortem yet. But if things go as they're looking, I believe Rudy will have a robust claim to worst ever not so much on the basis of his top poll numbers but on the rate and magnitude of the fall. Kennedy, after all, did get plenty of delegates. Carter just beat him.
The thing with Rudy is that he was the dominant frontrunner for a year. He raised tons of money, actually shaped the whole race. Contrary to what he's claimed he campaigned extensively in Iowa and extremely aggressively in New Hampshire. The strategy he now claims is simply an ex-post facto rationalization of the fact that he got his ass royally kicked in both states. Indeed, we've now had three major contests in the Republican race and Rudy has yet to bag a single delegate.
Now, despite the fact that I think Rudy's campaign has basically flatlined, Eric Kleefeld and I just looked at the numbers out of Florida, and the extreme weakness of the rest of the field has at least made it possible that Rudy win Florida. McCain's ahead there now and Rudy's back in the pack in second or third. But McCain's losing ground in South Carolina. So if Romney takes Nevada and Huck takes SC, perhaps Rudy could stride forward amidst the bodies and take first in Florida. Not likely, but not impossible.
So perhaps he'll pull it out in Florida and then lose respectably on Super Tuesday. At the moment though, we're well into the process and he's gone from the dominant frontrunner, with tens of millions of dollars, to an also-ran, often running behind Ron Paul.
Remember, again, here's the big picture on his numbers in the important states and nationwide ...
--Josh Marshall
Sui Generis
From TPM Reader JW ...
Rudy’s collapse is the mark of the worst presidential campaign in history. Think about it: Rudy Gulliani was the national frontrunner a year ago in many, many polls. He led virtually all of his Republican opponents, and several of the top Democratic candidates as well. Today, he has been drubbed in every race and is left in a do-or-die situation in Florida. Two of histories previous “worst” campaigns, Texans John Connally and Phil Gramm, were never considered the front-runners, never led in any polls and never had the continued, recent national exposure that Rudy has enjoyed. They spent far less money and accomplished really the same results. Generations of political historians will pick at the Rudy 08 corpse and wonder what the hell happened. Losing is one thing, but this glorious flameout is one for the ages.
--Josh Marshall
Friday Clip Mashtravaganza
There were a lot of humorous and/or ridiculous campaign moments this week, so we've started a new weekly Friday roundup of all the choicest clips of the week past. Squirrel eating, candidate constipation and how Rudy has become like the Black Knight from Monty Python's Holy Grail ...
--Josh Marshall
Hercules
Rudy has a new ad out. And this time he's gone so far as to use actual 9/11 footage.
As you can imagine, at this point Rudy's campaign has descended to become a sort of desperate 9/11 primal scream.
But the words of this ad really take Rudy's 9/11 megalomania to a new level. Against video of the towers falling, discussing Rudy's role in the 9/11 drama, the announcer intones ...
"And when the world wavered, and history hesitated, he never did."
Does it even require snark and commentary? The world wavered and only Rudy brought us through? Even history hesitated?
--Josh Marshall
50 Ways To Be A Loser
I know I've been hitting on the Rudy collapse story for a while. But it's just so vast there are a lot of points to cover. Remember that the Rudy 'plan' (which on many levels is a phony one anyway) was to plan for a knockout blow in February by winning big states like California. And for a long time Rudy had a commanding lead there, double digits as of the end of last year.
Rasmussen has a poll out today that has Rudy in 5th place at 11%. Another poll, from a couple days earlier, had him in second place with 18%.
But the rankings aren't as contradictory as they sound. The key is that over the last two months Rudy has coughed up a huge double digit lead and fallen back either into a clump of also-ran candidates or into near last place behind the also-ran candidates.
Late Update: For some more perspective, here's a graph Pollster.com just posted showing Rudy's falling poll numbers in the major primary states and nationally. The two blue lines up top are New York and New Jersey.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
The White House's evolving story on the lost emails: We lost those emails … no, we didn't … well, maybe we did--but can you prove it?
--David Kurtz
Burns Stepping Down
U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the number three U.S. diplomat, is expected to step down for personal reasons in an announcement to be made on Friday, a U.S. official said.
--David Kurtz
Snake Eyes
The LA Times picks up on a pivot point between the Obama and Clinton candidacies:
Barack Obama has warned about the dangers of gambling -- that it carries a "moral and social cost" that could "devastate" poor communities. As a state senator in Illinois, he at times opposed plans to expand gambling, worrying that it could be especially harmful to low-income people.Today, those views are posing a problem for Obama in the gambling mecca of Nevada, which holds its presidential nominating caucuses Saturday. While his top rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, also talks often about aiding low-income Americans, she has embraced the gambling industry and its executives, and her campaign has used Obama's past statements in an effort to turn casino workers and other Nevada voters against him.
The split on gambling between the Democratic rivals is a little-noticed but meaningful development that could affect the caucus vote Saturday and the broader election …
--David Kurtz
Back On The Market
TPM reader AM ponders Rudy's future ...
I've seen some discussion of the effect of this election on Rudy's consulting business, but recall that he was also making big bucks on the motivation/inspiration seminar circuit. In fact, that's why he was unable to attend 9/11 commission meetings (irony noted). I wonder, given how he's run his primary campaign, how much demand there will be for him in that arena in the future.
--Josh Marshall
Huckmentum
Don't look now but Mike Huckabee has pulled even with John McCain in the GOP South Carolina primary with just two days to go.
--Josh Marshall
Must See (Trainwreck) TV
Not sure what he heard or what he was told or who got on his case, but Chris Matthews just gave one of the weirdest, 'I'm for the little guy', 'I love politics', 'women rock' half-defensive, half contrite apologies I've heard in some time in the lead in to Hardball just now. It was for his recent claim that Hillary only got where she is today because Bill cheated on her.
And here it is ...
Late Update: In case you missed what the apology was about, it's this video from last week ...
--Josh Marshall
Kucinich Preying on Simple Minds
It's actually kind of sad seeing Dennis Kucinich stooping so low as to bamboozle his devoted followers. I suppose there are many reasons to love Dennis Kucinich. And yet poll leader is really not one of them. Admittedly he has consistently outpolled Mike Gravel. But I'm pretty sure he hasn't outpolled any of the other Democrats in the race. Nor should we forgot that that tally includes public support powerhouses like Sens. Dodd and Biden. And yet in the last few days we've started getting a steady stream of emails from Kucinich supporters asking why we don't publish the polls where Kucinich is in the lead. In fact, one reader said that all the polls she's seen have Dennis in the lead and we're no better than the MSM for keeping them secret.
So I asked one of the emailers what the deal was and I was directed to this section of the Kucinich website entitled "The polls you may have missed."
Says the site ...
Time after time after time, Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has topped every other candidate in major polls that the major media have either downplayed, dismissed or ignored completely. So, for the benefit of anyone who wonders about the strength and depth of Dennis's support all across the country, take a look for yourselves.
Needless to say the polls are bogus website 'polls' where anybody can vote a million times, not 'polls' as the term is understood in the reality-based universe.
So, for the record, we are not censoring news about Kucinich being in the lead for the nomination. These are not real polls. Admittedly, we have done our best to squelch news about the Kucinich surge. But we're always by the books with reporting polls.
--Josh Marshall
Bush: My Job Is Not To Defend Our NIE
Last night on Fox, the President abandoned all pretense in dismissing the Iran NIE:
(h/t to Think Progress)
--David Kurtz
Rudy's Crash
We get an extended take on the GOP race from TPM Reader AB:
Based on the numbers at Pollster.com, it would seem that in just about every state Rudy is shedding voters faster than you (or he) can say “9/11”. How are all these ex-rudites breaking? Rudy’s affinity groups seem to me to be militarists, secular/socially liberal republicans (ie, don’t care so much about abortion flip flops or shag) and the generally uninformed who respond to pollsters “Rudy” based on a vague memory of him somehow being a hero in the 9/11 attacks.It would seem that the secular/socially liberal set would tend to break Romney, who also has shown inexcusable tolerance in the past. Militarists I see primarily going McCain. Romney talks a “good” game on muscular executive power but doesn’t have the warmongering rep of someone who actually dropped bombs on a country. Finally, the generally uninformed are a bit of a wild card as there is always the danger that they actually start paying attention and vote with their more informed affinity. McCain probably has the initial advantage with this set due to higher name recognition but that advantage is rapidly eroding.
McCain is the big winner from the Rudy collapse, and may become the nominee due, as Homer Simpson said: “the two best words in the English language: “De Fault." My bet however is on Huckabee. He has the advantage of actually seeming to attract people rather than just pick up lifeboats from other campaigns. Plus, as his name recognition improves in each state the generally uninformed will gravitate towards his friendly demeanor. If he can manage to increase his ratings with the militarists without losing too much of the Heart in Huckabee, he has a fairly good chance to win it.
On the other hand, If Rudy were to pull out sooner rather than later and threw his remaining supporters to McCain or Romney then that could very well seal it up for either. Thus there is a possible silver lining for Rudy’s disastrous campaign: the chance to become a king maker of sorts. Will it be enough to attract shag and swag post campaign? I don’t know, but pulling out now can’t possibly be worse than the embarrassment of losing in New York, not to mention losing almost everywhere to the black sheep Ron Paul.
--David Kurtz
Democrats will be caucusing on the Vegas Strip Saturday, a Nevada court rules.
--David Kurtz
Reality Kicks Parody's Sorry Ass
On Tuesday night I updated you on the latest results in the pitched battle between Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani in the Michigan primary. As you know, Paul ended up getting twice the votes Rudy got in Michigan and now also has twice as many delegates as Rudy has -- 2 to 1. The small number overall admittedly made it a cinch for me to come up with the percentage difference.
But until last night I thought the Rudy v. Paul fringe candidate cage match was just a figment of my political imagination. That was when we heard from TPM Reader EM down in Columbia, South Carolina who'd just gotten what we at first thought was an anti-Rudy robocall from Ron Paul's campaign. On closer inspection it seems that it was actually a live caller, reading an attack script.
It seemed odd given Paul's devotion to Austrian economics that he would embrace the palpable inefficiencies associated with manually calling gazillions of South Carolinians with actual phone calls rather than automating the process. But then it was pointed out to me that the Paul campaign, judged as an economic actor likely has excess capacity when it comes to hyped-up anti-Fed gun rights supporters with too much time on their hands and willing to work the phone banks. After all, how else can you explain the decision to dedicate such resources to spamming youtube? So it may actually make sense. In any case, check out the latest from the Paul/Rudy mano a mano ...
--Josh Marshall
Out of the Frying Pan ...
"So it's ok to slather a squirrel in oil and fry it on a popcorn popper, but not to marry and have sex with it? That hardly seems fair."
That was one readers comment in response to Mike Huckabee's new statement equating gay marriage and bestiality.
--Josh Marshall
Edwards' Media Strategy
From TPM Reader AM:
In response to [the] piece on the Edwards media blackout:I served as an advisor for the Edwards campaign on its energy/environmental platform and when we met with John and Elizabeth back in October, he made it very clear that his strategy was to ride the wave of media coverage following a victory in Iowa. It actually sort of played to his advantage that the media gave him scant coverage in advance of Iowa because the "surprise" win would have received major airplay in the days leading into New Hampshire. But Edwards is caught in a maelstrom that he couldn't effectively counter... two very strong candidates, one of whom (Obama) grabbed the mantle of being the change candidate. Edwards couldn't differentiate himself enough from Obama and didn't get the much needed win in Iowa. He then made a strategic gamble that backfired when he tried to knock Clinton out of the race and make it a two-man show with Obama. Not only did Clinton surprise everyone, I believe Edwards attacks on her in the debate and his comments about her tearing up actually helped her.
While I think there's something here to the idea of the corporate media ignoring his candidacy because of his message, there's more to this story.
Late Update: Not so fast, says TPM Reader KJ:
With all due respect, I think reader AM has it backwards: the year-long media blackout of Edwards in 2007 was clearly what forced Edwards into making that "strategic gamble" (as AM called it) on Iowa.It can't be said to have backfired, because it wasn't really a gamble - by that point, Edwards had no other plausible choice but to stake everything on Iowa.
Later Update: The Edwards camp has put out a video about the media ignoring him:
Greg Sargent has more at The Horse's Mouth.
--David Kurtz
John C. Calhoun Would Be Proud
You never want to admit you were about to lose faith. But I was starting to think that South Carolina was going to let me down this year and not gin up some attacks about candidates' mandatory homosexuality or infant vivisection. But it looks like they're finally getting down to some good ole 'experiments on unborn children' contrast calls.
--Josh Marshall
Reprise of 2006 Nastiness
Robocalls in South Carolina accuse McCain of supporting experiments on unborn babies.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Campaign Roundup #9
In today's episode we examine how the GOP is grappling with the fact that it's actually got to nominate one of these guys ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
If you check your morning paper, most of them have a story about John McCain standing tall and fighting back against horrible negative campaigning down in South Carolina, especially with that flyer attacking McCain's war record. But as near as we can tell the flyer or mailer actually isn't a flyer or mailer because it was never fly'd or mailed to anyone. The guy behind it just mailed it to a lot of newspaper editors. Then the McCain camp got in the act by publicizing the 'smear' with a big press release. And everything kind of went from there. Paul Kiel has all the shocking details in today's Must Read.
--Josh Marshall
911911911
Will the FEC rule that Rudy can't say '9/11' anymore if he loses the New York primary?
--Josh Marshall
Fluff Watch
WaPo: "McCain Takes the Fight To Negative Opponents"
Come up with your own WaPo headline?
--Josh Marshall
Joe: GOP Good for the Jews
From the Miami Herald ...
Joe Lieberman, the one-time Democrat who narrowly lost the vice presidency, stumped in South Florida for a Republican presidential candidate this evening, putting his former party on alert: The GOP is after the Jewish vote.Lieberman told about 200 Republican Jewish activists that he's backing John McCain because his fellow senator and Iraq war hawk best understands the nature of the radical Islamic threat faced by ''our ally Israel'' -- while much of the Democratic Party has forsaken it.
''The Democratic Party, I believe, respectfully, has left the strongest roots of its foreign policy and national security,'' Lieberman said, adding that McCain ``has always believed that Israel is our natural ally, from the beginning of its modern existence to this day in the war against Islamic extremists and terrorists.''
--Josh Marshall
Truth Will Set You Free
By a process of elimination, Kevin Drum sees the light of Mittmentum.
--Josh Marshall
Robo Ergo Sum
Interesting. I just got robo-polled for the first time. Turned out to be from Rasmussen. When I saw the caller ID I thought it might be an actual call to me. But alas, I was to be polled. Six minutes eight seconds of my time. Relatively painless.
Late Update: Canvassing Manhattan? From TPM Reader JG ...
Hi Josh,Regular (daily) reader here.
Anyhow, I also just got my first robocall ever, from Rasmussen - and I also live in Manhattan.
It seemed a little strange when I saw your post, and made me wonder if Rasmussen is doing an NYC based poll, or a really large state poll, or if perhaps they are testing a new phone list. The poll itself was pretty innocuous, so I'm not suggesting anything
sinister. It was just surprising in a "What are the odds?" kind of way.Anyway, I just thought it would be a good idea to forward this on as a data point, in case any other readers also report the same experience.
--Josh Marshall
John Who?
What's the deal with the John Edwards media blackout?
(More than a few readers have pointedly asked TPM the same thing.)
--David Kurtz
Secret Plan to Win the Presidency
New South Carolina GOP primary poll out from Clemson University. McCain (29%), Huck (22%), Romney (13%) ... Rudy suckin' wind at 3%.
--Josh Marshall
Seems Like a Stretch
A Ron Paul victory in Nevada?
From the AP:
No major GOP candidate has set foot in the state for two months, and some Republicans are bracing for a possible surprise first-place showing by long-shot Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the only Republican to broadcast TV ads in Nevada.
--David Kurtz
When Wingnuts Attack (Each Other)
Are the smear artists down in South Carolina who are smearing John McCain trying to sully the good name of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth? Believe me, this one takes a few moments to explain. Paul Kiel gets to the bottom of it here.
--Josh Marshall
Fried Squirrel: I'm Loving It!
Mike Huckabee explains how he'll appeal to SC voters by explaining how he and his crew ate fried squirrel made in a popcorn popper in college ...
--Josh Marshall
Debate Thoughts
With all the commotion and Mittmentum last night I didn't have a chance to register any general views about the debate. As others have noted the big news was the across the board attempt to lower the temperature of the attacks and potential racial division -- something that whipped up like a brush fire late last week and quicker than I think anyone could have predicted threatened to do serious damage to whoever becomes the national standard-bearer.
More generally, I thought the debate stood out for the quality of the discussion and how well each of the candidates did. Each made a good argument for their candidacy -- both in argument and tone. If there was a big loser it was pretty obviously Tim Russert who generally got disrespected by each of the candidates for his pretentious and generally feeble questions.
If I were scoring I'd possibly give a slight nod to Obama for two simple reasons. First, debates are not his best medium. And he did better than earlier ones. Second, I thought he came off as Hillary's equal in terms of heft, experience, gravitas, etc. Hillary's claim of an advantage on this counts -- whether you buy that argument or not -- remains her key advantage in this race. So in this sense, I thought Obama helped himself most.
Hillary also had a good night. I know many others think she took it; and they may be right. Edwards was also strong, though I think the polls are showing the window is rapidly closing.
Make up your own mind? Here are some highlights from last night to see for yourself ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
Late Update: TPM Read HR says ... "Josh, TPM has been my first and most frequent stop for years, but I think you missed what happened last night. Clinton completely outflanked Obama on Iraq, moving the issue from one of past judgment to one of current leadership. She was also in general much more commanding and crisp. A clear win. See Arianna’s analysis, and she is no Clinton booster."
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
The WaPo has the best rundown yet on why the CIA torture tapes were made, when they were made, and why they were destroyed.
--David Kurtz
John Kerry: Let the People Vote!
You may have heard about this lawsuit brought by Clinton supporters in Nevada trying to change the rules at the last minute in the Nevada caucus because Barack Obama managed to snag the highly coveted Culinary Union endorsement.
As I've noted earlier, it stinks to high heaven.
Now Sen. Kerry (D-MA) sounds off about this attempt to disenfranchise the casino workers in a new post at TPMCafe.
It's a tough piece. Give it a read. This is a critically important issue that is about no less than keeping Democrats on the right side of the right to vote.
--Josh Marshall
Even Losing Murdoch
I know you may come to TPM for some of the finest anti-Rudy snark to be found in print these days. But look at what Murdoch's own (generally) Rudy-loving New York Post is saying ...
But there's only one GOP candidate that beats all the rest at being a loser: Rudy Giuliani.He has perfected the art of underperforming to the point that his campaign now insists it was all part of his game plan.
He's been reduced to watching from the sidelines and praying for other people to lose - like McCain in Michigan so his momentum would be stalled - rather than getting in the game and winning himself.
In fact, Rudy's campaigned so badly that the latest poll shows him losing New Jersey, which had a front-row seat for his shining moment during 9/11.
Even fringe candidate Ron Paul - the million-to-one long shot everybody picks on to make themselves look good - is beating Giuliani.
Paul, who finished ahead of Giuliani in Michigan, currently has twice as much claim on the Republican nomination as "America's Mayor."
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Dem Debate Highlights
Miss last night's Democratic debate in Nevada? We've got the key moments for you in today's episode of TPMtv ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
More Fluff
From The Times:
Highly promising figures that the administration cited to demonstrate economic progress in Iraq last fall, when Congress was considering whether to continue financing the war, cannot be substantiated by official Iraqi budget records, the Government Accountability Office reported Tuesday.The Iraqi government had been severely criticized for failing to spend billions of dollars of its oil revenues in 2006 to finance its own reconstruction, but last September the administration said Iraq had greatly accelerated such spending. By July 2007, the administration said, Iraq had spent some 24 percent of $10 billion set aside for reconstruction that year.
As Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, and Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq, prepared in September to report to Congress on the state of the war, the economic figures were a rare sign of progress within Iraq’s often dysfunctional government.
But in its report on Tuesday, the accountability office said official Iraqi Finance Ministry records showed that Iraq had spent only 4.4 percent of the reconstruction budget by August 2007. It also said that the rate of spending had substantially slowed from the previous year.
--David Kurtz
Sleeper Race
With so much going on tonight, I'd overlooked another key battle tonight that TPM Reader DK has just brought up.
With 99% of the precincts in, in a rare cross-party primary match up, we can now report that Rudy Giuliani will beat Dennis Kucinich's vote total this evening.
Kucinich currently has the votes of 21,715 Michiganders while Rudy is pulling in 24,708, thus topping Kucinich by just shy of three thousand votes.
--Josh Marshall
McCain's Uphill Climb
We're going to look at the details tomorrow. But there's a key point to keep in mind as the GOP nomination process leaves Michigan tonight. New Hampshire is a big state for independents. And they have open primaries. So it was tailor made for McCain and he won it. Michigan too has an open primary, though, and he couldn't make it happen tonight. This, you'll remember, is a state he did win in 2000 with a lot of independent and crossover Democratic voters.
The key is that going forward there are a lot fewer states with open primaries, at least on the Republican side. So if McCain is going to remain in contention for the nomination he'll have to start winning those primaries among Republican voters. And so far he's shown very little ability to do that. In New Hampshire Romney actually edged out McCain by 1% among registered Republicans. Today in Michigan he whipped him by 14% among registered Republicans.
Before tonight there was enough momentum brewing in McCain's direction that the party might have coalesced behind him enough to get him over that hurdle. But without that collective agreement to get the nomination process done with, the Republican primaries are about to become a much steeper hill for McCain to climb.
--Josh Marshall
Rudy: I'm Loving It!!!
Best Sum-Up of Results of the Evening, from Ari Fleischer: "Great news for Rudy," who clocked in with a respectable 3% tonight.
By the way, here's Rudy explaining how good things are going in his interview today with Fox ...
“Am I nervous at all? Do I look nervous? (I am) having a great time. This is a strategy we selected–it is the only strategy that can work for us and it’s a good one…and given the nature of the race which is wide open, we think it is going to turn out to be a smart strategy.”
--Josh Marshall
How Did It Go?
I'm happy to discount Chris Matthews's viewpoint and certainly Tim Russert's. But even Keith Olbermann seemed to agree that Hillary had somehow dominated the debate and treated the other candidates as they were already defeated opponents.
I thought she did fine. Don't get me wrong. But that's completely not the debate I saw.
What did you see?
--Josh Marshall
Todd Gitlin goes into more detail on Russert and his experiments at the outer edge of buffoonery.
--Josh Marshall
Nevada Debate Blogging 4.0
10:55 PM ... Russert to Edwards: Was It Appropriate for you to talk to Musharraf like I do?
--Josh Marshall
Rudy "I Flushed My Rep Down the Toilet By Running for President and All I Got Was This Lousy 3%" Giuliani Update
We're on a commercial break from the debate. And I wanted to do a Rudy update. At the moment, Ron Paul has twice Rudy's number, with more than 3/4 of the vote counted, though Rudy is edging out uncommitted.
In fairness, Rudy's also beating Duncan Hunter, though I'm not sure I realized he was still in the race.
--Josh Marshall
Nevada Debate Blogging 3.0
10:14 PM ... Russert clearly had his agent call the bigwigs at NBC because now they're turning the questioning back to him.
10:16 PM ... Inside Tim's head: my ingenious question to throw anti-military Democrats on the defensive.
10:17 PM ... Inside Tim's head 2.0: I struck out with Hillary and Obama, I'll give it a crack with Edwards.
10:20 PM ... Inside Tim's head 3.0: I'm a very serious guy and I won't shy away from the toughest questions.
10:23 PM ... Russert cometh ... But somehow he's really off his game tonight. He keeps going into the questions with that checkmate relish. And then the candidate answers it without too much problem.
10:28 PM ... Inside Tim's head 4.0: Let me whip you upside the head with some facts, Edwards.
10:35 PM ... I'm starting to wonder if Russert really knows how to deal with answering questions when the producer and sound man doesn't work for him and the candidates have no respect for him. I think he's about 0 for 8 at this point.
10:38 PM ... Hillary points out to Russert that they should discuss race issues besides the inflammatory fun ones that Russert enjoys.
10:43 ... I think I may remember this debate as the one where the candidates refused to take Tim Russert seriously no matter how serious he tried to seem.
--Josh Marshall
Feel the Heat!!!
Mitt ascends the rostrum to collect his gold medal as supporters scream in delirium and wiggle and writhe in spontaneous Mittmentum tremors and seizures ...
--Josh Marshall
Nevada Debate Blogging 2.0
9:40 PM ... Continuing reasonableness.
9:55 PM ... Pretty good answer from Obama on tax policy. Debates are definitely not his best medium. He's occasionally halting and not as fluid as he is in a set-piece speech. But that was a pretty strong argument about the necessity of rolling back the Bush tax breaks.
9:58 PM ... Appreciating the general sidelining of Russert.
9:59 PM ... Edwards grandstands a bit on his first question but ends up asking a pretty good one. Obama so-so so far in answering.
10:01 PM ... Oddly disorganized for a prestige news dude.
10:03 PM ... Weird how much Hillary took a pass on the question question. She asked one but it was, "Barack, will you work with me on ending the Iraq War." Not exactly intended to make him squirm.
10:05 PM ... Russert: "I have something to say, me, me, me" ... Very sad. Obama starts to smack him down. Now Hillary may need to smack him down too. The true unity of the Democratic party reveals itself: knowledge in their hearts that Russert is the true enemy. Even Edwards now tries to get in and kick Russert's butt a bit but he's pretty wiped out by the time Edwards gets to him.
10:08 PM ... Williams confiscates Obama's question.
10:08 PM ... I guess the key with Russert is that moment where he comes in to interject, often with the significantly raised pencil, with this look on his face of deep insider knowledge that he's divined the key point of contradiction that will pry the candidate open like a soft peanut. Only in this case, there are more of them up there than him and he's not in charge of the camera so they smack him around for a few minutes.
--Josh Marshall
Nevada Debate Blogging
Mittmentum! Okay, wrong party. Back to debate blogging.
9:13 PM ... Russert gets self-righteous and tries to keep the debate on racial issues and Obama's drug use. Candidates try mightily to redirect the conversation.
9:19 PM ... Pretty solid questions at this point. Starting off with who's more racist and now what Obama's position on the 'likable' crack at the last debate. And we haven't even gotten back to Russert yet!
9:20 PM ... Now we're on to whether Obama and Edwards tag teamed Hillary in the last debate. And like I said, we're not even back to Russert yet.
9:24 PM ... Candidates agree that they like each other and that Russert is a pretentious blowhard.
9:28 PM ... Edwards said he had to fight to survive from infancy.
9:29 PM ... Amazingly, Russert actually asked a decent question with this, what's your best and worst qualities question. Not particularly substantive and no clear relationship to anything to do with the presidency, but not clearly outrageous or stupid and generated some interesting answers.
(Non-debate-update: 24% reporting and Rudy -- 3% -- just ahead of uncommitted -- 2%.)
9:35 PM ... Okay, first commercial break. I confess that I'm troubled by the generally sane and reasonable tenor of the debate. After Russert's initial lame questions they've gotten a little better. Honestly, I think the candidates' answers have been, while not transcendent, actually reasonable and well-spoken. I can only conclude that this means that Russert is preparing to get on his hobbyhorse about a bunch of topics he has no real command of.
--Josh Marshall
Mitt Personality Cult
A little heads-up on primary watching tonight. Noted GOP barker Hugh Hewitt is a completely maniacal Mittophile -- and I mean, not kidding around Mittophile, but the genuine Pravda-like adoration and devotion to the Mitt cult. So if the Mittmentum holds up tonight and Mitt comes in first definitely stop by Hugh's blog tonight to watch him completely lose his mind in Mitt-based euphoria.
--Josh Marshall
America's Mayor
I think the big question of the night is whether Rudy tops the 5% threshold. So far, clocking in at a healthy 4%.
Late Update: 8:42 PM ... At the moment we're back in a close race between Rudy and "uncommitted". At the moment it's Rudy at 3% and Unc at 2%.
Later Update: 8:44 PM ... Unc has pulled ahead of Rudy by about 50 votes. Both at 3% with 2% reporting.
--Josh Marshall
Exits
According to the Fox exit polls, in the Democratic primary tonight, Clinton took 25% of the African-American vote and "uncommitted" is getting 69% of the African-American vote. Now remember, Hillary is only major candidate on the ballot. The others, and even Hillary to a degree, boycotted the primary because Michigan got crosswise with the national Democratic party over the date of their primary. Rep. Conyers (D) is an Obama supporter and he pushed for the state's African-American community to vote "uncommitted." There's too much screwy about the Democratic primary in Michigan tonight to draw too much from this; but it is suggestive.
--Josh Marshall
Outta There
According to Olbermann, the Nevada state Supreme Court just ruled in favor of NBC excluding Kucinich.
--Josh Marshall
All Set for the Primary and Debate
TPM Reader DG appeals to our inner geek ...
--Josh Marshall
Hard Mittmentum
NRO's Jim Geraghty posts what are supposed to be the first exit polls out of Michigan. Romney 35%, McCain 29%, Huck 15%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 4%.
We've independently heard the same numbers; but we were not able to confirm them.
(ed.note: Actually, when Eric Kleefeld told me about these numbers about an hour ago he at first accidentally transposed the numbers and had McCain up over Mitt, which was heartbreaking. But he quickly corrected his error.)
At a certain point, you start to wonder whether Rudy should be allowed in any more Republican debates.
--Josh Marshall
House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-MI), and 18 Democratic committee members, call for the attorney general to name a special prosecutor in the CIA torture tapes case.
--David Kurtz
As In, Out of the Ordinary?
John Solomon: The Washington Times is an "extraordinary news brand."
--David Kurtz
Up All Night!
You know how much is on the line tonight in the Republican nomination race. So as we have in the earlier races, we're going to be putting up our TPM Michigan Primary Scorecard and tabulating the returns live.
We'll also be doing special Democratic debate live-blogging as an added feature.
--Josh Marshall
Hearing some signs of serious Mittmentum on the ground in Michigan, from sources of totally undetermined reliability.
--Josh Marshall
No Justice No Peace?
As you know, TPM and TPMmuckraker got some nice kudos for our work last year on the US Attorney scandal. And it seems that as some incredibly juvenile 'payback' the DOJ has now affirmatively banned TPM from its official DOJ press list. Paul will have some details shortly.
--Josh Marshall
Must Address ...
TPM Reader -- on Cohen and Obama
Frankly, I don't think anyone pitched Cohen on today's column - I suspect he received one of the innumerable e-mails circulating on this issue, and figured there was a column in it. And there is a solid point buried in the column; Obama voluntarily affiliates himself with a church and a pastor who subscribe to some ideas and beliefs that large segments of the electorate disagree with or find distateful. Realistically, Obama will indeed have to address this issue at some point, and lay it to rest.But there's also a nasty double standard being employed here. To the best of my knowledge, no one has yet produced a shred of evidence that Obama himself subscribes to these views. The only other candidate being subjected to a similar level of scrutiny regarding his faith is Mitt Romney, and like many Americans, I've found those questions equally odious. John McCain isn't asked about the affinity the Episcopalian leadership has lately developed for Palestinian radicals; Rudy isn't smacked by fellow adventurists for the Vatican's persistent opposition to much of American foreign policy. In both of those cases, the punditry understands that the candidates themselves have taken positions diametrically opposed to that of their clergy, and no explicit disavowal is required. So why can't we say the same of Obama, a man who has persistently called for the sort of tolerance and unity that Farrakhan repudiates?
--Josh Marshall
Just a Thought
Who do you figure pitched Richard Cohen on the Obama/Farrakhan column?
--Josh Marshall
Instant Karma?
I don't know if it was the positive thoughts for Mitt, but the three new polls out this morning on the Michigan primary each show clear evidence of Mittmentum. Romney has a net gain of 2 points for Romney, while two other new polls have gains of 6 and 2 points.
It's still neck-n-neck but Mitt does appear to have a fighting chance.
Here's our primer on what to expect tonight in Michigan and what's at stake ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Bush: The IC Makes Its Judgment, and I Make Mine
The President has been disowning the Iran NIE in private. Now he appears to have taken his objections public, in a roundtable with reporters today in Saudi Arabia.
Bush was asked about the substance of his discussions with King Abdullah:
THE PRESIDENT: . . . We did spend time on Iran. The interesting issue on Iran is the effect of the NIE. And I went over the NIE with him.I assured him that our intelligence services came to an independent judgment. I reminded him of what I said at my press conference when we got involved with that story: they were a threat, they are a threat, and they will be a threat if we don't work together to stop their enrichment. So we spent a fair amount of time on Iran. I have spent a fair amount of time on Iran in every stop.
...
Q Just a couple quick follow ups on Iran. On the NIE, did you -- were you, in effect, distancing yourself from the conclusions of the NIE, and these guys --
THE PRESIDENT: No, I was making it clear it was an independent judgment, because what they basically came to the conclusion of, is that he's trying -- you know, this is a way to make sure that all options aren't on the table. So I defended our intelligence services, but made it clear that they're an independent agency; that they come to conclusions separate from what I may or may not want.
I suppose he stops short of outright disowning the NIE in those comments. But the NIE is clearly getting in the way of him reassuring the nervous Saudis that his Iran policy has not changed. What a nuisance.
--David Kurtz
Odious Slime Peddler
MJ Rosenberg has more here on Richard Cohen's column this morning and Cohen's decision to sign on to the 'get the Jews freaked about Obama' crowd.
I'm not saying Cohen has become an odious slime-peddler on a par with the Swift Boat guys or that his new gig is juicing up racial anxieties about blacks, but I do think he needs to address the issue.
--Josh Marshall
McCainiac
With John McCain now firmly in the position of frontrunner and possibly on track to come close to settling the matter in Michigan tonight, is it time to revisit the fact that McCain considered and even got into preliminary talks about switching parties back in President Bush's first year in office? Before Bush became Mr. 9/11, that is.
--Josh Marshall
WaPo's departing John Solomon: I plan to do "fair and balanced" journalism at the Washington Times.
--David Kurtz
Today's Must Read
How long is an "enduring" U.S. presence in Iraq meant to last? The devil is in that detail.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Mitt's Final Stand?
It hasn't gotten that much press attention. But today's Michigan primary could decide the Republican nomination. Mitt Romney has staked everything on winning in Michigan, pulling funds out of South Carolina and Florida. And the polls have him neck-n-neck with the GOP's latest frontrunner John McCain. We'll be counting down the results live tonight at TPM. And in today's episode of TPMtv we give you a primer on what to expect ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Richard Cohen gives Obama a "test" on Louis Farrakhan.
Please send in examples of demonstrable falsehoods in Cohen's recent columns.
Late Update: MJ Rosenberg has more on Cohen's signing on with the 'get the Jews scared of Obama' crowd.
--Josh Marshall
Job Opening at TPM
Starting today, we're announcing a job opening for a reporter-blogger at TPMmuckraker. The new hire will be one of two full-time reporter-bloggers for the site. There is no deadline for applications. We'll be hiring as soon as we find the right person. If you're interested please send a resume, two clips and a letter describing your interest and qualifications for the job to talk (at) talkingpointsmemo.com with the subject line "TPMmuckraker Job".
This is a full-time position, with health care. The reporter-blogger will report from either New York or Washington, DC., depending on the applicant.
If you've already expressed interest in the position informally, please submit an application as described above.
To learn more about what we do at TPM and what we've accomplished in the last year, see these news reports on TPM from 2007. And thanks to our readers who make all of this possible.
--Josh Marshall
WorldSoul Hearts Romney
I don't usually speak out on behalf of particular candidates. But tomorrow is Mitt Romney's rendezvous with destiny in Michigan. So I'd like to encourage all TPM Readers, tomorrow morning, to take a moment of silence to send positive thoughts to Mitt Romney and his Michigan field organization or positive karmic energy by whatever means you're most capable of using.
Otherwise, it could be the end of the line for Mitt's march on the White House.
For my part, I'll be focusing all my available chakra energy on Mitt at 9:00 AM tomorrow morning.
--Josh Marshall
Bush's Own Counter-Intelligence Ops
Fred Kaplan, on Newsweek's report that President Bush disowned the Iran NIE in meetings last week with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert:
This remark has three baleful consequences. First, it can't help but demoralize the intelligence community. NIEs are meant, ultimately, for only one reader, the president; and here's the president telling another world leader that he doesn't believe it because, well, he doesn't agree with it.Second, it reinforces the widespread view that the president views intelligence strictly as a political tool: When it backs up his policies, it's as good as gold; when it doesn't, it's "just guessing." This result is that all intelligence is degraded and devalued, at home and abroad. Let's say that six months from now Bush publicizes an NIE concluding that Iran has resumed its nuclear-weapons program or that, say, North Korea is reprocessing more plutonium. Given that he pooh-poohed an NIE that rubbed against his own views, why should anyone take him seriously for embracing an NIE that confirms them?
Third, by telling Olmert that it's all right to ignore the NIE, Bush is in effect telling him that Israel should go ahead and behave as if its findings had never been published. Hirsh reports that, when Olmert was asked whether he felt reassured by Bush's words, he replied, "I am very happy."
--David Kurtz
TPMCafe Table for One: Allen Raymond
New Hampshire GOP phone-jammer Allen Raymond sits down at TPMCafe's Table for One this week to discuss his new book, How to Rig an Election: Confessions of a Republican Operative.
Raymond went to jail for his role in the notorious 2002 election scheme to block get out the vote calls from a pro-Democratic group by tying up the phone lines with inbound calls.
In his first post, an unapologetic Raymond asserts that political operatives are paid to win, not to serve as moral compasses:
As a Republican campaign operative at the Republican National Committee it was drilled into me that election law attorneys serve the purpose identifying the bright line of the law so it could be taunted but not crossed. Anybody who has a problem with that or doesn’t get it doesn’t understand America. America is about self interest, within the rule of law. That’s where I erred.
Raymond will be guest-blogging at Table for One all this week.
--David Kurtz
Robocall Alert
As Paul Kiel has been documenting over the past few days, the leading robocall culprit from 2006 is back at it again, this time in support of Mike Huckabee.
For those of you living in Michigan or Nevada, Paul has the rundown on what you can expect to hear.
--David Kurtz
Feeling DG's Pain
TPM Reader DG ...
I’m disappointed in Romney. A first 100 days’ plan for Michigan, sure, that’s okay, but I’ve been expecting a really hard to resist pander, like appoint a new cabinet position dedicated to the state. He could even promise to call himself the President of Michigan and the United States. But he’s running out of time, they vote tomorrow. If only he had a few more days ….
--Josh Marshall
Too Little, Too Late
Orange County Sheriff Michael S. Corona, who was a nominee for the Golden Duke in the local category has now resigned.
Corona lost out to Florida's Bob Allen.
--Josh Marshall
Returning to his Natural Habitat?
According to Drudge, John Solomon -- well known slapdash reporter notorious for being an easy play for GOP oppo research hucksters -- is taking over the Washington Times.
Did the Post sour on him? Or could he just not pass up a chance to use his talents to their fullest potential?
--Josh Marshall
Rubber Band
One of the big data points sustaining the Obamamania after Iowa and before New Hampshire was the USA Today/Gallup poll that showed Clinton and Obama in a dead heat nationally, after months of strong Clinton leads. They've got a follow up poll out today, and it shows things more or less back to how things were.
--Josh Marshall
Confused by the New Primary Calendar?
We've put together a TPM Election Central guide to what's ahead in the presidential primaries.
--David Kurtz
Bush Disowns Iran NIE
From Newsweek:
In public, President Bush has been careful to reassure Israel and other allies that he still sees Iran as a threat, while not disavowing his administration's recent National Intelligence Estimate. That NIE, made public Dec. 3, embarrassed the administration by concluding that Tehran had halted its weapons program in 2003, which seemed to undermine years of bellicose rhetoric from Bush and other senior officials about Iran's nuclear ambitions. But in private conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last week, the president all but disowned the document, said a senior administration official who accompanied Bush on his six-nation trip to the Mideast. "He told the Israelis that he can't control what the intelligence community says, but that [the NIE's] conclusions don't reflect his own views" about Iran's nuclear-weapons program, said the official, who would discuss intelligence matters only on the condition of anonymity.
--David Kurtz
The Horse's Mouth piece on Maureen Dowd's New Hampshire "dateline" is driving Times Edit Page Editor Andrew Rosenthal out of his "f---ing mind."
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Race to the Bottom
As you know, every Monday we give you a roundup of what went down on the Sunday shows. So this morning we take a close look at what got said, not said and implied in the Clinton-Obama race fracas ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Intel Chief Mike McConnell claims that waterboarding would be torture for him personally because he has a deviated septum (or some other nose problem that he's not sure about), but for someone else it might not be torture.
--David Kurtz
High Noon for the Mittster
It's starting to look like the lack of a contested primary on the Democratic side may turn out to be a huge boon for John McCain in Michigan. Wisely or not, Mitt Romney has staked everything on a comeback in his home state. And polls over the weekend have scattered between ones with him and McCain holding the lead.
But the Zogby poll out this morning shows that while Romney is beating McCain 30%-20% among Republicans, he's getting swamped by independents and Democrats who plan to vote in the GOP primary, yielding McCain a slim 27% to 24% lead overall.
With Giuliani in political oblivion and Thompson ready for a nap, the GOP race could go a decent way toward being over tomorrow night.
--Josh Marshall
Democrats For Romney
Kos is leading the charge for Democrats to vote for Mitt in Tuesday's Michigan primary. Here's what a TV ad reaching out to Romney Democrats might look like:
--David Kurtz
Old Fav
There are new national polls out tonight from NYT/CBS and WaPo/ABC. And we'll be bring you more details on the numbers shortly.
But for the moment, let's look at Rudy Giuliani numbers and how well his campaign is going.
The Post has done a poll with a likely voter screen the last three times, this month, early last month and in early November. In early November Rudy was at 34%. A month later he was at 25%. Today he's at 15%. The Times meanwhile has Rudy dropping from 22% to 10% over the last month among Republican primary voters.
--Josh Marshall
Rope-A-Dope
TPM Reader ML on the fracas ...
I think that the Clintons' anti-Obama strategy is more subtle than commentators are realizing. It is in the nature of a "provokatsiia", as the Russians say. Cuomo didn't utter the phrase "shuck and jive"without forethought; nor did Clinton bring up LBJ and MLK on the spur of the moment. Both are experienced street-fighting politicians who don't say that kind of thing to the press without thinking it through. Such comments are a provocation, waving a red cloak in front of the Obama people. When they respond angrily with charges of racism, suddenly they look like Jessie Jackson redux...just the kind of angry, militant black folks who scare white people (btw I think black anger and militancy are completely understandable...this is just a point about how much of the white public reads such charges of racism). Then the Clintons deny responsibility.The whole point was to get the Obama people to respond angrily, which they did. Clintons win.
--Josh Marshall
Bobin' and Weavin'
Before I mentioned BET founder Bob Johnson's already notorious comments about Obama's youthful drug use. But just after those comments he said this ...
That kind of campaign behavior does not resonate with me, for a guy who says, ‘I want to be a reasonable, likable, Sidney Poitier ‘Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner.’ And I’m thinking, I’m thinking to myself, this ain’t a movie, Sidney. This is real life.”
Still not racially charged? Reasonable? Guess Who's Coming to Dinner?
--Josh Marshall
Not Bean Bag
We seem to be at the point where there are now two credible possibilities. One is that the Clinton campaign is intentionally pursuing a strategy of using surrogates to hit Obama with racially-charged language or with charges that while not directly tied to race nonetheless play to stereotypes about black men. The other possibility is that the Clinton campaign is extraordinarily unlucky and continually finds its surrogates stumbling on to racially-charged or denigrating language when discussing Obama.
Bob Johnson's claim that he wasn't referring to Obama's admitted youthful drug use is too silly to even repeat. Indeed, the logic of his remarks make no sense if he was referring to Obama's time as a community organizer.
Let's review what Johnson said ...
And to me, as an African-American, I am frankly insulted that the Obama campaign would imply that we are so stupid that we would think Hillary and Bill Clinton, who have been deeply and emotionally involved in black issues since Barack Obama was doing something in the neighborhood – and I won’t say what he was doing, but he said it in the book – when they have been involved.
Now, the clear logic of this statement is that the Clintons were fighting the good fight back when Obama was just off goofing off. Being a community organizer is like the epitome of engaged involvement in community issues. So Johnson's statement literally makes no sense if it's a reference to Obama's time as a community organizer. So Johnson should just shut up or be a man and admit that it was a reference to Obama's admitted youthful drug use.
And if it's community organizing, why is it unmentionable?
The pretty obvious aim of Johnson remark was to push an image of Obama as some sort of street hustler.
That said, I continue to think most of the statements from the Clinton's themselves are being distorted or just made into things they weren't. Like the 'fairy tale' line, for instance. I cannot see any interpretation of these comments that can credibly be said to have any racial subtext whatsoever.
Here's the full quote from Bill Clinton ...
First, it is factually not true that everybody that supported that resolution supported Bush attacking Iraq before the U.N. inspectors withdrew. Chuck Hagel was one of the co-authors of that resolution, the only Republican Senator that always opposed the war, every day, from the get-go.He authored the resolution to say that Bush could go to war only if they didn't cooperate with the inspectors and he was assured personally by Condi Rice, as many of the other Senators were. So, first, the case is wrong that way.
Second, it is wrong that Senator Obama got to go through 15 debates trumpeting his superior judgment and how he had been against the war in every year, enumerating the years and never got asked one time, not once, "Well, how could you say that when you said in 2004 you didn't know how you would have voted on the resolution? You said in 2004 there was no difference between you and George Bush on the war and you took that speech you're now running on off your Web site in 2004 and there's no difference in your voting record and Hillary's ever since."
Give me a break.
(APPLAUSE)
This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen.
Now, as it happens, I agree with Clinton on point one, at least to a degree. On point two, it's narrowly accurate but willfully misleading since it ignores the context of the remark. But the ins and outs of Obama's position on Iraq are a separate issue. To my reading the 'fairy tale' line is unambiguously a reference not to Obama but to the claim that Obama always opposed the war. And I do not see how that can be construed as a racially-charged remark or demeaning to Obama as a black man.
I know it sounds like I've just said two contradictory things, in least in the context of this controversy. But that's how it looks to me.
--Josh Marshall
Mitt(Yawn)mentum
After two polls showing roughly a tie between McCain and Romney in Michigan, a new McClatchy/MSNBC/Mason-Dixon poll shows Romney with an eight point lead.
--Josh Marshall
