Down to the Wire
With 89% of the votes counted in Louisiana, it's 43% Huck and 42% for McCain; in Washington state, with 78% reporting, it's McCain up over Huckabee by 25% to 24%.
McCain will do himself a real favor if he can come from behind in both states and make Kansas the fluke of the day. But the larger picture will not, I think, be that much different.
Late Update: With 98% of the vote counted, it looks pretty clear that Huckabee's going to come in first in Louisiana. In Washington state, the state party site has been lagging so bad we're half wondering if they just can't bring themselves to report a Huck win. Huckabee led for most of the evening. But McCain pulled one point ahead with 78% of caucuses reporting.
--Josh Marshall
HuckMentum!
The big political story of the night isn't the Clinton/Shuster brouhaha or Obama's victories. It's on the Republican side of the race. Results are still coming in. And the particular rules of the Republican primary in Louisiana make the delegate allocation completed. But as of right now, of three Republican contests held today, it looks likely that Mike Huckabee will win all three.
We already know about Kansas, which was a blowout for Huckabee. With 62% of precincts reporting Huckabee is up by 8 point over McCain in Louisiana. And Huckabee is ahead of McCain by 3 points in Washington state with 37% of the caucuses there reporting.
There's still time for McCain to pull ahead in Washington. But even if that happens it would not do much to change the overall picture. There's something seriously wrong when the de facto nominee of the party loses three races in one day in three different regions of the country.
--Josh Marshall
Not Fired?
A number of readers have written in to question, or much more than question, our latest headline on the Clinton/Shuster story -- namely that Hillary Clinton is demanding that Shuster be fired.
First of all, some have criticized Greg Sargent's reporting. But let me make this crystal clear. I personally signed off on the post and I wrote the front page headline myself.
Some have said that Clinton's letter to NBC wasn't written clearly or that she was saying that suspensions and apologies were not enough, that what was needed was a broader reevaluation on the network's part of its attitude to women and Hillary Clinton in particular.
Simply read the key passage ...
Nothing justifies the kind of debasing language that David Shuster used and no temporary suspension or half-hearted apology is sufficient.I would urge you to look at the pattern of behavior on your network that seems to repeatedly lead to this sort of degrading language.
Some readers seem to believe that Clinton is saying that it's not about suspensions or apologies. It's about MSNBC's need to reevaluate its pattern of behavior.
But there's a fatal flaw with this strained interpretation. Look at the actual words. If that's the case, why does she qualify 'suspension' with the adjective 'temporary'? That tells the tale right there. The alternative to a temporary suspension is a permanent one, which is clear English we call 'firing'.
I give the Clinton campaign the respect of knowing that they're no slouches with the written word. And the words in this letter were clearly chosen with great care. The point of that passage was that merely suspending Shuster was insufficient -- that he needs to be fired. That's what they meant. And I have little doubt that Shuster and the MSNBC execs understood the meaning the moment they read it. I think it would be wrong to shy away from making that clear.
--Josh Marshall
Own Counsel
TPM Reader RH chimes in on the Shuster story ...
I won't defend the comment, though I will say it certainly wasn't as bad as some of the things I've heard Chris Matthews or any of the "pundits" on Faux News say. However, this letter, given to reporters, strikes me as a purely political move. It's much more about controlling the news than any real offense taken by Hillary or Chelsea themselves. If I were MSNBC I would put Keith Olberman on the air tonight and have him say, "Hillary, he said he was sorry, twice, and we regret that it happened, but we'll keep our own council on who we hire and fire, thanks."
--Josh Marshall
Obama Projected to Win Washington
Obama looks to be winning big in Washington State, too.
CNN just called it . . .
--David Kurtz
Projection: Obama Wins Nebraska
The nets are calling Nebraska for Obama.
With 73% of the vote reporting, Obama is pushing 70% of the vote.
--David Kurtz
More Pimpin'
Hillary ratchets up the pressure on MSNBC over David Shuster's pimpin' comment: "no temporary suspension or half-hearted apology is sufficient."
--David Kurtz
Peer Pressure
Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry called Mike Huckabee on Friday and asked him to drop out of the presidential race. Huckabee declined. Perry initially endorsed Rudy Giuliani but switched to John McCain after Rudy dropped out.
--David Kurtz
Enthusiastic Cornhuskers
From the Lincoln (Neb.) Journal Star:
Thousands of people statewide overflowed school gyms, sat in traffic and stood in groups on Saturday to be counted as part of Nebraska’s first Democratic presidential caucus.Sen. Barack Obama was in tight race with Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, with 24 delegates at stake in Nebraska.
In Douglas County, the state’s most populous county, an average of 1,000 people turned out at each of 15 caucus sites, said Eric Fought, spokesman for the state party.
Sarpy County had one caucus site for 28,000 registered Democrats, triggering traffic backups for miles and complaints from voters while changing the way officials conducted the caucus. …
Law enforcement shut down Highway 370 and the intersection leading into the site — a school cafeteria — because the area was packed with cars.
The influx of people was so massive that volunteers began collecting preference cards for people who preferred Obama or Clinton, then allowing them to leave. Traditional caucus procedures allow for more interaction, with supporters standing on either side of a room trying to persuade the undecided and not-so-sure supporters of other candidates to join them. …
The turnout was so high that officials in Douglas and Sarpy counties announced that they would delay the announcement of their results at least one-and-a-half hours.
Thanks to TPM Reader TH for the link.
--David Kurtz
Steep Hill to Climb
Mike Huckabee may be romping in Kansas today, but the latest national poll, from Newsweek, gives John McCain a 51-32 lead over Huckabee. The survey data is from the day before and the day of Mitt Romney's withdrawal.
--David Kurtz
Huckabee Takes Kansas
The results are just coming in now. And Huckabee appears to have taken Kansas running away. More soon. See the results on our scoreboard down to the right.
Continuing Update: It looks clear that Huckabee didn't just win but won in a blowout. It's important to note that Kansas is good territory for Huckabee. Evolution's been on the defensive in the state for many years. And it's a caucus, which privileges the most committed and engaged voters. That said, McCain's the presumptive nominee. So it will be important to watch how many states Huckabee can either win or seriously compete in. If the presumptive nominee continues to lose states that will, by definition, be a sign of something less than party unity.
Doofus Election Official Update: You'll notice on our election results scoreboard in the news section that we've got vote results out of Kansas but no percentage of how many caucuses have reported. It turns out that the state party officials forgot to include percentage reporting in their results.
Final Update: With 100% of caucuses reporting, Huckabee takes 60%, McCain 24%, and Ron Paul 11%.--DK
--Josh Marshall
Getchya Election Results Here
We've got three caucuses (Washington, Nebraska and Kansas) and one primary (in Louisiana). And we'll be bringing you results live here at TPM. We're expecting the first results shortly from Kansas, where Republicans are caucusing. Then we're expecting results from the other states after 8 PM in Nebraska and after 9 PM in Washington state and Louisiana.
--Josh Marshall
Viewpoints
TPM Reader VH checks in ...
I am not a Hillary supporter - I voted for Obama. But, I applaud the response of the Clinton campaign for the insulting remark about Chelsea and Hillary. It is extremely important for both Democratic candidates to make the networks aware right now that treating either of them as Bill Clinton was treated will be done with severe consequences. If that means every single network finds itself on the outside looking in, then so be it.Bush made sure the networks, and news media in general, knew that any disrespectful treatment of him like Bill Clinton was subjected to was going to bring results they would find very uncomfortable. That
worked - of course in part it worked because the networks and media in general supported Bust no matter what he did. But, even if they don't support the next Democratic president we can't allow him or her
to be treated with the dripping contempt that Bill Clinton faced. This episode was the first shot in that "war".
--Josh Marshall
More Shuster
Let me follow up on the Shuster story by agreeing with Atrios. I referenced this briefly in the post below. But, setting aside the language Shuster used, I don't get what's 'unseemly' or weird about Chelsea playing any role she wants in her mother's presidential campaign. Many of us may remember her from when she was twelve, or whatever age she was. But I think she's almost thirty years old. So I'm not being rhetorical when I say I don't even know what that's about. I find it mystifying.
Meanwhile, Greg Sargent brings us more background on the contretemps and negotiations taking place now between Hillary's campaign and NBC and how that upcoming debate figures in.
--Josh Marshall
He's Outta Here
We now know that MSNBC's David Shuster has been suspended over the Chelsea 'pimp' comment. It seems to me there are a couple possibilities for what is happening here.
What Shuster said was tasteless and crude. And even the logic behind it, let alone the way he said it, didn't really make sense to me. I don't come close to defending it. And he should apologize for saying it, which he did -- though perhaps he might have done so more fulsomely. I do not think the comment played to specific stereotypes about women in general or about Hillary in particular as it would if you refer to a black man as "lazy" or "shiftless" or a woman as "shrill" or a "shrew." Nor am I aware that Shuster has any history of such comments -- unlike some other MSNBC TV personalities.
Unlike pretty much everyone else on the chat shows he's a reporter who consistently does pretty solid investigative pieces. But regardless of that, who can name me the last political chat show host or reporter who was suspended over anything? To say that he's being held to a different standard than TV chatters normally are is probably a farcical statement in itself since I'm not clear that there are any standards.
Does anyone watch Fox News?
On the other hand, many have rightly criticized Chris Matthews for his repeatedly degrading, often sexist and consistently clownish comments about Hillary Clinton. The most logical way for me to understand this development is that MSNBC is under a lot of fire for Matthews -- but Matthews is untouchable -- and Shuster's easier to can or suspend.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Ahhh, yes ... I Remember It Well
In today's episode of our Weekend Clip Extravaganza we toast all the special moments we shared with Mitt Romney lo these many months. Varmint shooting, dog torture, so many silvers, Mack Daddy Mitt ... Ahhh, yes ... I Remember It Well ...
--Josh Marshall
Fiscal Discipline
From The Politico ...
Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Texas), a certified public accountant, had pushed for months for an internal audit of the National Republican Congressional Committee, according to GOP members, but the committee’s treasurer at the time was reluctant.Finally, at a recent meeting, the now former NRCC treasurer, Christopher J. Ward, relented, giving Conaway what was supposed to be an official internal audit from 2006. That document was a fake, the GOP members said. Even the letterhead on which it was sent was a forgery.
Revelations about the falsified document touched off an unfolding scandal that has rocked the NRCC and spurred a criminal investigation by the FBI into the committee’s accounting procedures.
Fearing the fallout from the discovery, the NRCC informed its principle lender, Wachovia, of potential accounting problems. Wachovia, which declined comment Thursday, had lent the committee $9 million in 2006, according to Federal Election Commission records.
Knowing the bank was required by law to notify federal investigators of any “suspicious activity,” the NRCC also alerted the FBI, Republican insiders confirmed.
At the same time, NRCC officials notified the FEC that the committee may have filed inaccurate disclosure statements.
--Josh Marshall
The John Solomon era officially begins at the Washington Times with an "investigative" piece that seems to be another gotcha without any apparent gotcha.
--David Kurtz
Not About Him
Bill Clinton was in Maine yesterday for Hillary. And in an interview with a local reporter he discussed mistakes he thought he'd made in aggressively defending his wife in the weeks between New Hampshire and South Carolina ...
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Don't be fooled. When the CIA chief says "it's not certain" that waterboarding is legal any longer, he's not really saying it's illegal.
He just means he hasn't asked the Justice Department and White House to sign off on it--yet.
--David Kurtz
Here's a Jonathan Kaplan's write-up of Bill Clinton's visit to Maine yesterday, with that tussle he had with the anti-war protestor.
--Josh Marshall
Feelin' His Pain
TPM Reader DD checks in ...
I am a little depressed tonight. Rudy's gone. Mitt's gone. Is it just me, or is McCain the least funny of all the republicans? I mean, he says crazy things like "100 more years in Iraq", but I never laugh. Is it his timing? Or his material? I guess with Rudy and Mitt you could tell that even they didn't believe half of their own Shinola. But McCain? He seems like he does. Maybe its something else. Anyway, I shouldn't complain. The republicans have provided an abundance of comedy during this campaign. And its been a load of fun. But, I fear that the salad days are over.
--Josh Marshall
Bill Stands Down Heckler
Just got a report in from Jonathan Kaplan of the Portland Press Herald. Apparently Bill got heckled at a Hillary event and, well ...
A lone heckler calling on Sen. Clinton to “end the war” in Iraq interrupted the beginning of Clinton’s speech.“Would you like to make this speech?” Clinton said. “Sir, this is not your event, this is for Hillary.”
When he said that, “the war is still going on,” Clinton responded, “That is because George Bush is still fighting it.”
The crowd erupted in cheers and shouted down the heckler, who was escorted out of the building by a single police officer.
I'll get the link when it goes online.
--Josh Marshall
House Business
Remember, tomorrow is the deadline for our TPM Spring Internship. If you're planning on applying, see the details here.
Meanwhile, Greg Sargent digs into the mystery of that disappearing sentence in Maureen Dowd's Obama column.
And Jared Bernstein has the latest on the economic stimulus package that just passed.
--David Kurtz
Mukasey to TPMmuckraker: Go Jump in a Lake
As we reported earlier, in an apparent attempt at payback for our aggressive reporting on the US Attorney firing scandal, the DOJ Public Affairs Office removed TPMmuckraker from its press list and has followed up with a series of comical rationales for the banning -- the best of which is that DOJ budget cuts make it impossible for the DOJ to afford the emails.
Since we spoke to you last, we submitted a FOIA request asking for records relevant to our banning or discussion of TPM or its lead reporters. We asked for an expedited process on the basis that not being discriminated against by the DOJ is a timely and pressing issue for our continuing reportage. We got the rejection on that front yesterday.
Today before the House Judiciary Committee Rep. Hank Johnson (D-GA) asked Attorney General Mukasey about why TPM had been banned. And his basic answer was: tough luck. You can see the details and video here.
Now, as we explained earlier, there are certainly more onerous forms of government harassment than getting kicked off a press list. But this almost comically juvenile stunt is a very telling example that the kind of rank politicization of the department -- our reporting of which seems to have gotten us into this position -- is alive and well at DOJ. And it does hamper our ability to inform you about what is happening at DOJ as Attorney General Mukasey takes over from the disgraced tenure of his predecessor.
--Josh Marshall
Cuttin' Loose
TPM Reader JB ...
I agree that Romney’s reasoning for leaving the race is transparently phony, and I hope you keep harping on its absurdity. He is now of course obligated to campaign with all his heart for McCain, and as you mentioned, his sons should enlist.But today Romney was, as Stephanie Miller likes to say, “on fire.” He left his dullness and “Ken doll” image behind and really gave a dynamic speech. Totally flawed, but dynamic. I wonder if he’d let that style emerge more when he was still running, he might not have had to quit. Just a thought...
I basically agree. He had none of Mitt's trademark animatronic qualities. But I think this is something you often see when a candidate packs it in. They suddenly get at least somewhat phony and stilted. Ironically in Mitt's case he was able to finally break free of his staged mannerisms and cut loose his inner phony conservative.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Mittpocalypse Now
The moment had to come -- Mitt packs it in. But, as he explains in today's episode of TPMtv, he's doing it so America can win the War on Terror. Special added bonus video -- Laura Ingraham goes apes--t on John McCain ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
What About the Junior Mitts?
TPM Reader RB:
Since Romney's justification for his sons' seeming lack of enthusiasm for military service was the fact that they were "serving their country" by helping him get elected, and since him getting elected just isn't in the cards, will the Romney boys be on their way to the recruiting office?
--David Kurtz
The Effect of the Tweety Effect
Emily's List using Chris Matthews' buffoonery as fund-raising tool for Hillary.
--David Kurtz
Mark This Day
Attorney General Michael Mukasey is back on the Hill today, testifying to the House Judiciary Committee. Paul Kiel is covering it at TPMmuckraker.
So far, he's dropped two big bombshells. DOJ will not be investigating:
(1) whether the waterboarding, now admitted to by the White House, was a crime; or
(2) whether the Administration's warrantless wiretapping was illegal.
His rationale? Both programs had been signed off on in advance as legal by the Justice Department.
Cynics may argue that those aren't bombshells at all, that the Bush Administration would never investigate itself in these matters. Perhaps so. But this is a case where cynicism is itself dangerous.
We have now the Attorney General of the United States telling Congress that it's not against the law for the President to violate the law if his own Department of Justice says it's not.
It is as brazen a defense of the unitary executive as anything put forward by the Administration in the last seven years, and it comes from an attorney general who was supposed to be not just a more professional, but a more moderate, version of Alberto Gonzales (Thanks to Democrats like Dianne Feinstein and Chuck Schumer for caving on the Mukasey nomination.).
President Bush has now laid down his most aggressive challenge to the very constitutional authority of Congress. It is a naked assertion of executive power. The founders would have called it tyrannical. His cards are now all on the table. This is no bluff.
Late Update: TPM Reader RF:
David Kurtz's "Mark This Day" blurb misses the most important point -- it's not just that the Attorney General's position is that a DOJ Order makes the subject activity legal but that, as Nadler brought out, there is now no recourse to a judicial test, either criminal (through refusal to prosecute) or civil (through the state secrets privilege based solely on a DOJ affidavit). The DOJ is entitled to take whatever position it wants, however self-serving and unitary, but now there is no avenue for judicial review and so that is the end of the story. That is the important point here.
--David Kurtz
Rationale
So we have Mitt's angle: He has to drop out of the race because we're at war.
--Josh Marshall
Mitt: Making it more likely that Hillary or Obama would win would mean "surrender to terror."
--Josh Marshall
Waiting for Mittot
As we're here waiting for Mitt Romney to come out and declare his flat-lined presidential campaign over, there was one point that I think may not be completely clear, or deserves restating. Romney certainly fought a better campaign than Rudy or Fred. But what stands out is that Romney wasn't able to win a single stand up fight in the whole campaign. Caucuses, I think are fundamentally different than primaries. And Mitt's caucus wins were each largely uncontested. Michigan was lightly contested by McCain. But Mitt pulled out of South Carolina and temporarily pulled resources out of Florida to focus on that single race and McCain, as I said, only lightly contested it. There were three real primaries in the Republican race -- New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. McCain beat Romney in every one. The fact that he was in contention in delegate terms as long as he was was largely a mirage.
--Josh Marshall
Mitt-mentum Screeches To Halt?
Reports swirling that Romney is dropping out of the race--as soon as today.
Mitt is getting ready to address the CPAC convention. CNN is reporting that three GOP sources are confirming he will suspend his campaign.
--David Kurtz
Profile In Courage?
There was a big stimulus bill vote last night. And the senators still in the presidential campaign were back in town to cast their votes. All except John McCain (from the AP, emphasis added) ...
Senators in both parties prepared to greet the presidential race's front-runners Wednesday, as McCain, Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and Barack Obama, D-Ill., left the campaign trail to vote for a proposed $205 billion economic stimulus package. McCain returned to Washington but made an eleventh-hour decision to skip the vote, aides to his campaign said.
Eleventh hour decision not to show up for the key vote even though he was actually in Washington?
Tapper, at ABC, says that his vote wouldn't have changed the outcome and that McCain supports the Pelosi/Bush bill from the House. But it's still not clear to me what the '11th hour' decision means. He's in the city; why not vote?
Late Update: Here's the story on just what issues were at stake. My hunch is that looking toward the November election didn't want his hands on the Republican blockage of the expanded bill.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Given the lemon of an unintentional disclosure about waterboarding from its former intel chief, the White House has been trying to make lemonade.
--David Kurtz
Horse Race
The Obama campaign now says they've raised over $7 million since the close of the polls on Tuesday. But the Clinton campaign is now saying they're up to "approximately" $4 million during the same period.
--Josh Marshall
The Implications
I've been checking in on the Obama counter that's measuring the money his campaign has taken in since the close of the polls -- now at $5.8 million. And it occurs to me that he can now afford to hire Mark Penn.
--Josh Marshall
Magic of Small Donors
Barack Obama has raised over $4 million since the polls closed last night.
--Josh Marshall
Stand on Principle
The White House insists: the Senate must confirm torture memo author as Assistant Attorney General.
Late Update: So many Bush nomination battles. This post originally said "Deputy Attorney General," but the nominee in question, Stephen Bradbury, is up for an Assistant AG position.
--Josh Marshall
Crunching Delegates
Lots of readers have written in asking about the delegate count between Obama and Hillary. The process of delegate selection and allocation is byzantine at best, in both parties, so there's no one definitive count of how many delegates each candidate can claim at this point in the primary season. (That alone should be a red flag raising doubts about how presidential nominees are selected, but we can save that for another day.)
Eric Kleefeld has compiled the estimates put together by the various news networks of how many delegates each candidate has won on the Democratic side. The estimates vary widely, depending on the methodology used. Looking through them, the only hard conclusion you can draw is that the race remains close with neither candidate a lock to secure the nomination. But for you numbers junkies, it's worth a look.
--David Kurtz
Over at TPMCafe, Micah Sifry of techPresident explores: Obama, the Internet and the Decline of Big Money and Big Media.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Why So Super?
Those super delegates may well end up deciding the Democratic nominee. In today's episode of TPMtv, we tell you who they are, who chooses them and who they're likely to support.
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Josh Marshall
It Takes a Village--and a Loan
TPM Election Central reports that Hillary loaned $5 million to her own campaign late last month.
--David Kurtz
Lest We Forget ...
You'll remember in yesterday's episode of TPMtv we noted the vast disparity between Zogby's and SurveyUSA's final poll of California and said that one of the two organizations was going to be seriously embarrassed. Well, in the clear light of day, I'd say we have a winner.
Actual Results: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
SurveyUSA: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%
Zogby Intl: Clinton 36%, Obama 49%
So SurveyUSA literally hit the bullseye, getting the exact percentage, while Zogby was off by a net total of 23 points.
Now, it's not all crow for Zogby. In Missouri, SurveyUSA had Clinton over Obama by 11 points while Zogby had Obama up by 3. The final result was Obama by 1 point.
Still, California was the big prize and the one with the eye-popping disparity. And SurveyUSA left Zogby in the dust.
--Josh Marshall
Mark Penn
The latest spin from Clinton's Mark Penn: Obama is the establishment candidate. Which I guess means that Hillary's the insurgent.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
In the swirl of Super Tuesday, the Bush Administration launched its latest defense of waterboarding: after years of concealing, obscuring and denying it, the Administration declared it has nothing to hide.
Late Update: The White House admits this was a conscious strategy.
--David Kurtz
Up To Them?
We just finished up our morning editorial meeting. And in thinking through our reporting -- post-Super Tuesday -- the big story to me really seems to be the fact that the conventional nomination process may well not generate a winner. That could certainly end up happening. But proportional allocation of delegates is going to make it difficult for one side or another to put his or her opponent away. And the margin of overall delegate 'victory' stands a good chance of being smaller than the number of uncommitted super delegates. That would mean a de facto old-style nomination process. With primary voters unable to settle it, it goes to Democratic officeholders, which is by and large who the super delegates are. So that's what I'm looking at. Who has super delegate endorsements to roll out this morning? Who do elected Democrats want to run with?
--Josh Marshall
Too Close to Call
The Democratic race in New Mexico remains a toss up the morning after Super Tuesday. So close in fact that the provisional ballots could be the decider.
--David Kurtz
Grey Lady
I don't know what the headline was in the print edition. But I was interested to notice that the Times is running a subtly, or maybe not so subtly, different headline this morning on the primaries. I wish I'd written last night's down word for word. But it was something to the effect "Clinton and McCain win victories, Obama close behind, GOP challengers lag." It obviously wasn't nearly that long or clunky. But the gist was that the Clinton and McCain had taken the night. Obama was in hot pursuit, while McCain's GOP rivals were falling back into also-rans. This morning it's "Clinton and Obama Trade Victories; McCain Pulls Ahead of G.O.P. Rivals."
--Josh Marshall
Summing It Up
Before we give way to the night, let me try to pull together some rough thoughts on what happened here tonight. It's probably best to start with the indisputable facts. I haven't had a chance to look at the popular vote. But every estimate I've seen says this was close to an exact tie in delegates. And adding those delegates won today, to all those won in the earlier contests and all the pledged super delegates, Hillary, I believe I heard was above by about 50.
If you look at this from the vantage point of two weeks ago, it's a huge win for Obama, since he was trailing in states across the country by a very big margin. From the vantage point of the last couple days, however, it's much less clear. The hype of his momentum just got a bit out ahead of what he was able to pull off. And in that sense there's a very mild echo of New Hampshire, though the Clinton campaign is silly to claim some sort of comeback. There were a handful of states which, had he won two or more of them, would have taken him from a delegate tie to a decisive win that would have seen Clinton seriously on the defensive. But it didn't happen. Not in New Jersey or Massachusetts and most importantly not in California, which Clinton won decisively.
But I think all these competing scenarios make one point clear. The only arguments for one side or the other being a winner here come down to airy and finally meaningless arguments about expectations. And the result tells a different tale. It's about delegates. It's dead even. You've got two well-funded candidates who've demonstrated an ability to power back from defeats. And neither is going anywhere.
The flip side of the proportional representation in delegates is that not only does it allow a challenger like Obama not to get put away early, it also makes it difficult to put away an opponent late. The conventional wisdom is that Obama will do well in this weekend's and next Tuesday's contests. But if he does, proportionality will reign there too. It's hard to see where this doesn't go all the way to the convention.
--Josh Marshall
Emotions Runnin' Kinda High
TPM Reader SM ...
You guys have lost your friggin minds since Josh decided on Olberman that Obama's Iraq comment was something more than it was. There's been nothing but crap Zogby polls and spin keeping this guy a float. Look at the exit and entrance polls! The guy hasn't managed to break out of his key demographics AT ALL. Whoa he got more of the White vote in CA which he lost handily. He seems to be able to win every caucus and lose every election. Too bad we don't caucus to elect a president.He's dead. His campaign is fundamentally about the belief that there are no race issues in America. And reality is biting him on the ass in every race. He loses the brown vote in every state 2:1 while pulling in the black vote 4:1 and he manages to sway wealthy white people and young white people. That's it. The base of the dem party is union workers, working class people and grandma. He has no traction at all with these groups. It's written large in every race. The guy just doesn't have what it takes to build a majority, and he's got a slick net press operation that is fundamentally gaming Reddit and the blogsphere.
It's obivous that the dem base loves Clinton ESPECIALLY WHEN HE IS AGRESSIVE!
It's obvious that the dem base doesn't give a shit about the Iraq vote!
It's obvious that the Obama base relies heavily on right wing help, and launders stuff through them and their proxies. Case in point your own guy Trapper via Drudge.
It's obvious that the brown vote in this country matters more economically than the black vote since the brown people work closer to the white power structure and get more representation for their money even via delegates as a result. And it's obvious that Obama has killed himself by denying the realities of race in America instead of addressing them.
Please stop buying into the bullshit of the Obama internet press operation. The party can't afford to bleed for 3 more months to appease Barack and Michelle's ego, when McCain consolidates everything under himself tomorrow. Ok sure we go to VA and MD or whatever if the Republicans pussyfoot, but we aren't going to learn anything new just blow a lot of scratch to see another iteration of the same demographic story.
The real story is not in the pre-election bullshit polls where people like Zogby just make shit up, it's in the repeated and expanding story of the exit and entrance polls. LOOK AT THEM. There is NO OBAMA "surge", it's the same people in the same groups with different numbers in each state.
Encourage the Obama people to take Hillary's VP offer so that we call move on already. We need to win in November, and raising more ire within the party is a sure way to fuck that up.
PS We love teddy in MA but we know he is full of shit, which is why Obama lost here. That everyone else bought into the spectacle is enough to show that you were all more interested in seeing what you wanted to see rather than what was. Open your eyes look at the exit and entrance pols. BTW the same white demographic that went for Obama in MA is the one that went for him in CA, in CA there are just more of them.
--Josh Marshall
Leveraged Buyout
Jonathan Wiesman runs the numbers: Mitt paid $1.16 million per delegate.
But put together some investors, possibly? Because that would mean that the whole nomination could be bought for a mere $1.33 billion.
--Josh Marshall
Better Spin Please
One point I'll make on the spin tonight. The idea that Obama's not winning Massachusetts is a big upset is simply ridiculous. In our poll tracker, we have six polls of the Massachusetts race going back to January 17th. One of those had Obama ahead, and that was by two points, though admittedly it was one of the most recent. Yes, he had both senators behind him as well as the governor. But Obama also went from being behind by something like two to one margin a couple weeks ago to a much closer race. What's true is that there were a slew of states -- Massachusetts, New Jersey and California come to mind. Had Obama been able to grab one of those, it would have been a big punch for him. It would have been really bad for Hillary. And it really would have defined the night. But he wasn't able to pull it off. Seems like he kind of did in Missouri. But that's not quite in the same category. In any case, there's a ton of spin from both sides right now, especially furious since this was so close in so many ways. But the Obama had to win Massachusetts line is just silly.
--Josh Marshall
Big Mo
Fox and MSNBC calling Missouri for Obama. I've gotten unconfirmed reports that the AP has retracted their call for Clinton. We're trying to run that down.
--Josh Marshall
White Flag?
Just had a report from MSNBC out of the Romney camp. They've got a senior aide telling them that "tomorrow will be a day of frank discussions" about the campaign at Romney HQ. Had all the signs of a packing it in signal. We'll have video momentarily.
(ed.note: Sort of makes you wonder, can you imagine Mitt Romney having a frank discussion?)
--Josh Marshall
Missouri, Not Done?
Not sure what to make of this. But Barack Obama has just crept ahead of Hillary Clinton in Missouri. With 97% reporting he's now ahead of her by a little more than 2500 votes. Seems like AP may have jumped the gun.
Meanwhile, nets are calling it for Hillary in California.
--Josh Marshall
A Sober Read
Two readers make an uncomfortable but I think possibly insightful point about today's results. Not sure I agree. There's been too much of a rush of details and numbers we're trying keep up with tonight to give it enough focus. But I want to put it in front of you.
First, TPM Reader JS ...
Just a quick trend to note: Obama seems to do well in states where there are either a huge number of black voters or virtually no black voters at all. In states with large urban populations, and ethnic suburban populations, he doesn't do as well. He also doesn't do as well in interior southern states. In other words, either a state needs to have white voters who have very little experience with ethnic or racial politics, or it needs to have an extremely large black population, in order to vote for Obama.
And TPM Reader BW ...
I'm a little surprised you haven't figured out the role of the ethnic votes on tonight's Democratic results.I became involved in the NJ campaign after one of my friends told me that his extended Italian family were voting for Hillary cause she was preferable to the black guy. Their votes were being driven by race. We turned some of them around, but with others the racial enmity prevented any rational discussion.
MA also went to Hillary due to the organization of the Irish pols, according to MSNBC. Would sure like to see polling of ethnic votes in these states and NY.
I know that highly negative e-mails about Obama were also being sent around to my Jewish family. With Jewish voters you had the further complication of Israeli representatives coming out against Obama.
The disparity between the exit polls and actual results when an African-American has been running is known as the Bradley-effect. I notice your exit polls show Obama leading in NJ and MA. Why am I not
surprised.
Not sure I agree with the last point. The exit polls were unweighted second wave exits. The real question is how the results compare to the final polls. And I'm not sure they're that far off. One might argue that a more simple way to look at this is simply to say that Hillary dominated in the heterogeneous Northeast, where Hillary comes from. One might also say that this is only a more cynical way of pointing to the class/education division between Clinton and Obama voters that we've already noted in several of the contests. But I think there might be something to this. We'll know more after we all have a chance to look closely at the exit polls.
Curious to hear your views.
Late Update: TPM Reader PN adds some thoughts ...
A couple of thoughts about the racial/ethnic dynamic in the voting patterns that your other readers identified.First of all, Clinton is doing very, very well among white women, particularly older white women. This is probably making the racial divide in the vote larger than it otherwise might be. I think the "pull" of voting for Clinton is at least as powerful than the "push" of being unwilling to vote for a black candidate. If we're going to talk about how the African-American vote is keeping Obama in this race, we ought to talk about how women (who make up a disproportionate share of Democratic primary voters) are keeping Clinton in the race too.
In Massachusetts, Obama actually won white men 48%-49%. His showing among that demographic in New Jersey (39%) and Missouri (39%) was admittedly less impressive. But for Obama to take 40% of white male Democrats in Missouri is not a bad showing.
--Josh Marshall
Show Me
Missouri goes for Hillary, the wire services report.
Late Update: This one is still really close. I was a little surprised that the wire services called it when they did. I haven't seen any of the networks calling Missouri yet.
--David Kurtz
Dead Heat
In the background here at TPM HQ we've been running the numbers to try to get a sense of what this is going to look like in terms of delegate counts on the Democratic side.
To be clear, there's a lot of estimating involved here and piecing together little fragments of information. But all that said, our very much in-progress spreadsheet, which assumes a decent margin for Clinton in California, has the two candidates almost exactly tied in delegates.
Doubt it will turn out exactly that way. But I think that's going to be the big story. For all the spin and nominal wins. It's a dead-heat where it really counts, in delegates.
--Josh Marshall
All Eyes on California
The polls have closed in California. As expected, it's too close to call -- on both sides.
Promises to be a long night.
--David Kurtz
Sad Day
Dick Cheney's daughter, Liz Cheney, who just signed on with Romney says a McCain nomination would be a "sad day" for the Republican party.
--Josh Marshall
Mitt: I'm Loving It (and Talking Weirdly Fast)
Limp Romney rallying the Mitt faithful live on TV.
Eric Kleefeld, TPM reporter-blogger, just made a good point. By winning Michigan, Utah and Massachusetts Mitt has managed to compile a shattering record of wins in states where he has some claim to residency or has owned a home.
So, the question is how many houses can Mitt buy in time for the rest of the primaries in February and March.
--Josh Marshall
Huck Chortles
Huckabee: The pundits were right. It's a two man race. Me and McCain.
--Josh Marshall
Mitt: I'm Loving It!!! 9.0
Mitt's apparently about to speak to reporters. Should be some choice schadenfreude.
--Josh Marshall
Obama Too
I was thinking this and TPM Reader JW just wrote in and made the same point. As much as John McCain is winning the Democratic core states, something similar might be said about Obama. Not quite as clear cut. But there's definitely some of that. So far Obama's taken Alabama, Delaware, Georgia and Illinois. Take out his home state and that's two deep south states and one border state.
At the moment, as you can see on the scoreboard on the right, Obama has a razor thin lead with about half the vote counted in Connecticut. If he can pull that out, it'll be his only state in the Northeast, with Hillary taking New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts.
--Josh Marshall
Chris Matthews Actually Right
Chris Matthews is actually making a pretty solid point. And one that's going to be difficult one for McCain to deal with. That is, the states McCain is winning are ones Republican seldom win in general elections. So far our tally has Delaware, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. Basically he's taking the Democratic base.
--Josh Marshall
Hillary Outperforming Exits
The second round exit polls looked very strong for Barack Obama. But the actual results coming in are making this a much closer night. Some of the Hillary's wins so far were expected. But Massachusetts and New Jersey are big wins. Of course, as we've noted a number of times, it's proportional. So close wins on either side mean more like a tie in delegate terms.
--Josh Marshall
Minnesota
TPM Reader HR checks in ...
My guess is Minnesota results will be really late. Huge turnout at our caucus site in St. Paul. It was parked up for blocks and blocks, with long streams of traffic and people arriving in large groups. The line was around the block when we joined it, farther around it after we voted and left. The ballots were little squares of paper, kind of like what we used back in second grade except the names were pre-printed on them. Ballots went into a box with a slot on it (might have been a borrowed classroom Valentine box). Clearly nobody was going to start counting until after the last votes were cast. Voting began at 6:30 and anyone still in line at 8:00 could vote, no matter how long the line.
--Josh Marshall
Super Tuesday Projections
CNN projecting:
Conn: McCain
Mass: Romney
Ill: McCain and Obama
Okla: Clinton
MSNBC calls New Jersey for McCain.
Fox projects Hillary wins Tennessee.
Delaware goes to McCain.
--David Kurtz
McCain's Underperforming?
We went into this evening thinking that the big story would be on the Democratic side of the ledger. And the early signs are looking strong for Barack Obama. But it's looking like there's a big story on the Republican side too. Not that John McCain isn't going to have a big night. But considering that few people give any shot to the remaining candidates Romney and Huckabee, the exit polls suggest an underwhelming showing by McCain. McCain's folks were dying to have Huckabee stay in and do well. But I suspect at the end of the evening he'll have done a good deal better than the McCain wanted. And Mitt's not getting shut out either. Keep watching this.
--Josh Marshall
Dem Exits, Second Wave
These are the second wave exits. Not certain whether or not they're weighted. Assume they're not.
GA: C- 25.5, O - 75
CT: C - 45, O - 52.2
IL: C - 29.1, O - 69.6
AL: C - 37, O - 59.6
DE: C - 41.9, O - 55.6
MA: C - 47.3, O - 49.8
MO: C - 45.1, O - 49.8
TN: C - 51.6, O - 41.1
NY: C - 55.6, O - 42.2
NJ: C - 47, O - 52.2
AR: C - 71.2, O - 25.5
OK: C - 60.5, O - 30.4
AZ: C - 44.8, O - 50.5
These below are first wave ...
NM: C - 45.6, O - 51.8
UT: C - 39.9, O - 60.1
CA: C - 49.6, O - 46.3
--Josh Marshall
GOP Exits
We're seeing the first GOP exits polls from states around the country. And John McCain isn't doing all that well. To be clear, he's still dominating. And with the GOP's overwhelmingly winner-take-all rules, he'll win lots and lots of delegates. But Mitt Romney is doing respectably in a lot of states. And Mike Huckabee appears to be in the lead in a four of them. Meanwhile, it's a tight race in Arizona between McCain and Romney, with the home state senator leading by only 5 points.
Just to be clear. The big headlines here look the same. McCain's winning big states across the country. Romney's only winning in four states. But these results do show that McCain's winning this without really closing the deal. At least not yet.
--Josh Marshall
Mittmentum Inversion
Mitt descends to the 8th level of self-parody ...
"Senator McCain has proven that he will say anything to win this election," Romney told reporters. "He has taken on a very aggressive, bold strategy of misrepresentation, and it works in politics to a degree." Romney then listed several issues on which, he says, McCain has flip-flopped, including the Bush tax cuts: McCain once opposed them but has more recently voiced his support for the policy. It was a departure for Romney, who just a couple of days ago would have likely declined to be drawn into a tit-for-tat about an opponent's strategy.
McCain's fibbing and flipping on the Bush tax cuts is pretty hilarious. But I guess Mitt ain't the guy to make the case.
--Josh Marshall
Exit Polls
John Geraghty at NRO has pretty reliably supplied early exit polls in this cycle's primaries. He now says he's got early exits out of Massachusetts. In the first two waves, he says it's coming in dead heat on the Dem side and Romney up by 20 points.
--Josh Marshall
The Horror?
What would a brokered convention look like? Even crazier and more chaotic than you can imagine. Ed Kilgore gives us the details.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Final Status Check
As we've done for each of the other primary and caucus night's we're going to be bringing you live results starting at 7 PM this evening from primaries and caucuses around the USA, which is about three hours from now. So in today's episode of TPMtv we bring you a final status check, what the polls say, when they close, when to expect the results and, well, and so much more ...
--Josh Marshall
Tempers Boil Over
A view from the email bag ...
So, Obama makes a dramatic, massive surge in these national tracking polls, then the surge seems to level off for a few days and you instantly proclaim a "ceiling?" Obama is the candidate bringing in massive numbers of new voters and crossovers but he has the ceiling? He always closes in on her mile wide inch thick support whenever the actual date of the election looms, but HE has the ceiling?What the F are you smoking?
Meanwhile the 100% name recognition candidate who has literally a popularity ceiling (I won't waste time explaining why HRC obviously has both a Dem Party ceiling and a national ceiling that start her off needing to claw desperately to eke out a 50+1 win) doesn't get a "ceiling" comment?
Just endorse! We Obama supporters will respect you more for the openness. We won't blame you, Josh, we will still love you. We will just know that with you we were always working with a bad set of facts on this one.
"What does it say about Barack Obama that it takes two of you to beat him?"
"See, that's just a bait, too. Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in 1984 and 1988.""We don't need to be raising the false hopes of this country about what can be delivered."
As I told the emailer, at least he's not following the crowd. The majority of emailers divining our secret agenda now say it's a secret pro-Obama agenda. So it's nice to have some balance.
--Josh Marshall
Final Gallup
Gallup's final tracking poll is now out and it shows a 5 point spread: Clinton 47%, Obama 42%.
Looking over the last week or so Obama converged with Hillary twice, but each time seemed to bump up against a ceiling.
--Josh Marshall
Limbaugh Dobson Game
TPM Reader KB checks in ...
Josh, people are scratching their heads about Limbaugh preferring to lose in November than win with McCain. And even if he comes around publicly (as I suspect he will eventually), privately he and guys like Richard Viguerie understand that over the long term the real battle is about the "post-mortem." Winning the post-mortem is the key to their continued power going forward past 2008. Think about it: if McCain wins then there will be a real sense that these former power bastions such as talk radio are becoming less relevant to a new wired citizenry, etc. For Rush and Viguerie and Land and the Family Research Council, this is big business and they don't want to give up even some of their power, perceived or otherwise. On the other hand, if the primary voters choose McCain (with the aid of the hated lib media) and McCain goes on to lose in November, then they can argue that they were right all along - this outcome allows them to win the post-mortem against voices such as David Brooks and Ryan Sager who seek to break the mold once and for all. This is high stakes for all of these people. I'm not surprised by Rush on this at all.
I'm not sure I agree with every jot and tittle here. But he's quite right about the stakes. If McCain can win with Rush and Coulter and the rest of them openly and volubly against them, it will mean that they're paper tigers. And their juice in GOP circles will be greatly diminished. Not that people won't still listen to Rush's show and he won't make money selling racist songs on his subscription only website, but GOP pols will feel much freer to ignore him. The fact that he's on track to win the nomination is bad enough. They can only recover if he loses the general. Then they'll argue that it was because he bucked the Movement conservatives.
Meanwhile, there's another angle to this -- one that David Keene of CPAC was refreshingly candid about in the article about conservatives and McCain in the Times about why a lot of the insider activists are sidling up to McCain so rapidly ...
Meanwhile, conservatives are growing increasingly “resigned” to the idea of a McCain nomination, said David Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union, adding that among Washington activists, many of whom, like him, double as lobbyists, self-interest may also be a factor.“There are people who don’t like the idea of a being off a campaign or being on the bad list if the guy gets into the White House,” Mr. Keene said. “This is a town in which 90 percent of the people balance their access and income on the one hand versus their principles on the other.”
Like I said, refreshing candor. And I don't mean that facetiously. But Keene's right. A lot of these DC conservative power-brokers make their very substantial livings as lobbyists. And trying to sink McCain does not pay.
--Josh Marshall
Idle Speculation
One point to keep in mind as we watch the results tonight. A lot will depend on whether the race has now shaped up with both Clinton and Obama and roughly-matched and known contenders, or whether, because of her history and name recognition, Clinton is the de facto incumbent vs. Obama the challenger. It could make a very, very big difference because a number of the polls we're seeing have high undecideds. And it is a very reliable rule of thumb that undecideds break for the challenger.
The thinking behind that rule of thumb is that the undecided voter knows the incumbent. And if they haven't decided to vote for them by election day they're very unlikely to do so. In other words, the late undecided voter in most cases is a voter who's decided to vote against the incumbent but hasn't quite gotten their head around the idea yet.
It's a pretty reliable rule. But is she the incumbent? The one example I can think of that points against that is New Hampshire. My recollection is that Obama's final numbers were pretty close to what the polls predicted. The 'surprise' was that the undecided broke overwhelmingly for Clinton, thus giving her her margin of victory. South Carolina seemed to point in the opposite direction.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
As the primaries reach their climax and the general election looms, one third party attack group is going all the way to the Supreme Court in its quest to unleash Hillary: The Movie (or Obama: The Movie, if it comes to that) without the nuisance of campaign finance restrictions.
--David Kurtz
Mitt-sheviks
Ever since we launched the news section over on the right side of the page, I've been a lot more sympathetic to headline writers and their plight. When I see doozies now at other sites, my reaction is less holier than thou and more there but for the grace of god go I.
Still, this one currently up on the NYT front page is pretty funny:
--David Kurtz
On the Ground
From TPM Reader EC at 9:25 AM ...
The new optical scanners in my voting precinct (in West Hartford, CT) were not working this morning either. We were instructed to leave our ballots and told that they would be scanned later. I miss the old lever machines! The turnout looked substantial, however, at 7:20 a.m.
GE checks in from Manhattan ...
Josh, you can tell EC that lever machines aren't any great prize either... one of the 2 machines for my election district in Hell's Kitchen went down while I was in line. Things were still moving pretty fast, but the line was up to about 25-30 when I left, which is highly unusual for our precinct. Lots of energy out there this morning.
--Josh Marshall
One Last Whack At Edwards
The Politico's Roger Simon identifies "the heart of the collapse of Edwards’ campaign" as "his inability to sell himself as an authentic champion of the poor — and I am not just talking about his expensive haircuts."
Yeah, because that's what American voters have always been looking for: an authentic champion of the poor. Come on.
--David Kurtz
The Polls
There's one guarantee I can make right now about tonight's results. They are going take make either Zogby or SurveyUSA look like complete fools. Which one I'm not completely sure, but definitely one of them.
Consider this spread. Zogby has his final California number as Obama 49%, Clinton 36%. SurveyUSA has Obama 42%, Clinton 52%.
I think that may be the starkest spread; but down the line Zogby has immense momentum behind Obama and a series of results that would bring him in with something between a solid and a smashing win. Meanwhile, SurveyUSA has close to the exact opposite. Comparing these numbers to other polling organizations they're both somewhat outliers, though Zogby's results are closer to the average of other polls than SurveyUSA.
--Josh Marshall
Bad Start
New Jersey's governor is having problems voting in the state's presidential primary.Jon S. Corzine was scheduled to cast his ballot at 6:15 a.m at the Hoboken Fire Department Engine Company No. 2. But the two machines aren't working and it's not clear why.
Late Update: The guv has voted.
--David Kurtz
Super Tuesday Thread
Make your predictions, defy expectations, stick your finger in the eyes of the pollsters in our Super Tuesday thread at TPMCafe.
--David Kurtz
Final SurveyUSA Poll in CA
SurveyUSA has a final California poll out including calls from Monday night. The tally: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%.
--Josh Marshall
Allen Gets Cracking
I had been thinking for some time that what was missing from the the Sen. Ted Stevens - VECO Oil -- Home Renovation scandal was a strong sex and drugs angle. But it seems that gap may be on the way to being filled. Bill Allen, you'll remember is the founder and now-former CEO of VECO, who's pled guilty to all manner of wrongdoing. He's now a full-time government witness. But back when he was still riding high he was the guy who set up and paid for that keen home renovation for Sen. Stevens.
Now it seems, though, that authorities are looking into whether Allen carried on a relationship with 14 year old crack-addict Bambi Tyree. And often seems to happen in these situations various gifts and cash are alleged to have found their way into the hands of young Tyree and her family. Allen, through his lawyer, is denying the allegations.
--Josh Marshall
That Should Do It
Earlier today I got a blast email from conservative direct-mail kingpin Richard Viguerie with his latest pitch on what conservatives should be doing ...
Today, I’m calling for conservatives to consider opening up the Republican presidential race by bringing in a new candidate--someone who can unite economic, social, and nation-security conservatives and lead us to victory in November.
In other words, the key is to bring on Fred Thompson 2.0. Or something like that.
Here's his argument.
--Josh Marshall
SurveyUSA
The balance of polls over the weekend and today showed tight races across the country and a small but discernible momentum in Obama's direction. But this afternoon SurveyUSA, which runs computerized polls, put out a raft of polls from Super Tuesday states around the country. And they all looked favorable to Hillary.
Mass: Clinton 56%, Obama 39%
Alabama: Obama 49%, Clinton 47%
Missouri: Clinton 54%, Obama 43%
California: Clinton 53%, Obama 41%
Those numbers are much more favorable to Clinton than most of the rest of the polls out there. At a minimum they're at the strong Clinton end of the spectrum. But they're also the most recent.
--Josh Marshall
Super Tuesday Eve Roundup
TPM Election Central makes one last run through the political news of the day on the eve of Super Tuesday.
--David Kurtz
Bygones?
Michelle Obama: "I'd have to think about" supporting Hillary as nominee.
Late Update: A couple of readers have strenuously protested that the question wasn't would Michelle Obama "support Hillary as nominee," but could she she herself "working to support Hillary" as the nominee. In other words, these readers argue, Michelle might vote for Hillary even if she doesn't work for her. I find that to be a distinction with very little difference. Why is Michelle hedging at all?
--David Kurtz
Cat's Away, Mice Play
While the nation is distracted by Super Tuesday elections tomorrow, the Senate will finally take up telecom immunity, which is expected to pass.
--David Kurtz
Match Made In …
Karl Rove starts as Fox News analyst/contributor for tomorrow's Super Tuesday coverage.
--David Kurtz
The Obama Health Care Debate
This morning at TPMCafe Dean Baker critiqued Paul Krugman's recent comments on Barack Obama's health care plan. Now Krugman responds.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Super Tuesday Status Update
Tomorrow is the big day: 22 states and a cloud of dust. In today's episode of TPMtv we go over the last few polls both national and in the critical Super Tuesday state of California as we count down to zero hour, February 5th ...
Watch this episode on YouTube.
--Ben Craw
Gallup, et al.
A few more numbers. Today's Gallup tracking poll is up and it has a slight notch back up for Hillary. From 2 points to 4.
Looking over the bigger picture, there were now a total of 6 non-tracking polls released over the weekend and until today. The highest Obama lead is 6 and the highest Clinton lead is 8. But the more recent of the polls seems to favor Obama, though I should note they're all pretty closely clumped together in time. And a very similar picture seems clear in California. A scattering of polls, which taken together show something like a tie but with the trend moving in Obama's direction.
--Josh Marshall
Today's Must Read
Wikileaks has unearthed the 2005 Rules of Engagement for the U.S. military in Iraq--which allowed for cross-border raids into Iran or Syria.
--Josh Marshall
Jersey Up for Grabs?
We have half a dozen polls out on the Democratic race in New Jersey in the last two days. And the state definitely appears to be in contention, though with Clinton still with a lead in most polls. Today's Zogby poll has a dead heat at 43%. Quinnipiac has a 5 point margin for Clinton; and Strategic Vision, a Republican outlet, has 6 points. Yesterday, Mason-Dixon had an 8 point spread for Clinton and Monmouth University had a whopping 14 points, with Clinton hitting the 50% mark. See the poll details here.
--Josh Marshall
Polling Early Voting
A number of polls now show Clinton and Obama in a dead heat in California. But a number of you have written in to note that large vast numbers of the states voters have already cast their ballots, and that they did so when Clinton still held a substantial lead. The Christian Science Monitor recently quoted a state election official who believes that just under half the votes in the state will be cast early. In other words, a substantial proportion of this election will have been 'held' when Clinton was way ahead. So a poll taken today doesn't give you a full picture; indeed, it may be substantially distorted in Obama's favor.
But don't be so sure. I have not looked at the methodologies yet of the various California polls. But the same issue arose in Florida. And when I looked into how the pollsters were doing their surveys they were taking this into account. They were asking some form of who will you vote for or who did you vote for if you've already voted.
I would certainly assume they're doing the same thing in California. (If anyone can point me to specific information about the questions for the California polls, please let me know.)
Now, looking back, McCain did seem to outperform his late poll numbers, if only by a couple points. And my recollection is that the tie it looked like going into election day was based on Romney's late surge whereas McCain had been up in much of the early voting period. So it's possible that may be evidence of a early voting effect skewing the numbers. But the polls were bouncing around a lot at the end. And it's at least as likely that it's just the polls getting close to the mark but not quite there.
In any case, the point is, if you're figuring that early voting will skew tomorrow's numbers. Don't be so sure. The pollsters know about early voting too and I believe they're taking steps to factor that in.
--Josh Marshall
CNN Poll: Obama Ahead by 3
This morning's CNN poll has Obama up by 3 over Clinton. To the best of my knowledge that's the first one ever showing him on top. And it comes on a slew of national polls out yesterday showing the two either tied or with Clinton slightly ahead.
--Josh Marshall
That NYT/CBS poll
There's a little nugget buried down deep in the CBS write-up of the story that a number of you have mentioned ...
The picture in the states voting on Super Tuesday is not nearly as close as the overall picture and offers some good news for Clinton. Among voters in those states, she leads Obama, 49 percent to 31 percent, with 16 percent still undecided.
Remember, the overall poll has the two tied at 41%. So assuming there were respondents in rough proportion to the number of people from states voting Tuesday, Obama must be way up in the non-Super Tuesday states in order to be so far behind in the others.
This would not follow the pattern we've seen over recent months that has Obama improving his standing with voters once the race becomes actively contested in a given state. What's more the result at least seems to be belied by state by state poll results that show Obama in a strong position in a lot of the Super Tuesday states.
That's all a long way of saying that I'm not sure what those numbers mean. But there is one key point to keep in mind. The margin of error for this poll was 5% -- with a survey of 491 Democratic primary voters. But the margin of error for a subset of the total survey is higher than that for the total. In this case, probably substantially higher since in this case we're probably dealing with not many more than 200 respondents.
So, could mean anything, but the sample size is so small that spread just isn't very reliable.
--Josh Marshall
Snapshot
As you'd expect there have been a flood of major media polls out today of the Democratic race. So let's round them up. (Note that I'm not including today's reports from the two daily tracking polls being kept by Gallup and Rasmussen.)
ABC/WaPo: Clinton 47%, Obama 43%
Pew: Clinton 46%, Obama 38%
NYT/CBS: Clinton 41%, Obama 41%
USAToday/Gallup: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%
--Josh Marshall
Kennedys
Apparently Ahh-Nuld's wife Maria Shriver just showed up at an Obama event with Oprah and added her support to his campaign. I'm not sure that's surprising in itself. It's sort of a Kennedy fad at the moment. And I don't think there's ever been any sense she changed her politics just because her husband's a Republican. Several readers just wrote in to say that saw it at an Obama rally telecast on CSPAN. And I've confirmed.
--Josh Marshall
Pushing It
The LA Times Top of the Ticket blog finds evidence of what appears to be Clinton push-polling against Obama in California. The Clinton camp is yet to respond.
Late Update: A closer review suggests some skepticism about this story. The 'push-poll' reportedly was 20 minutes long, which is much longer than is ever cost-effective for a push-poll. And the Times seemed to go with this with a single person who claimed to have gotten the call. I should have scrutinized the LAT post more closely.
--Josh Marshall
Rasmussen
Today's Rasmussen national tracking poll is out. And it has another bump up for Hillary. Clinton 49%, Obama 38%. Two days ago it was 43% to 37%.
Late Update: Gallup track swings in the other direction. A two point race. Clinton 46%, Obama 44%.
Late Update: Meanwhile, USAToday/Gallup has a one point race: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%. Obviously, this sounds kind of weird since it's two polls by the Gallup organization. But this is one conventional poll sponsored by USAToday. And a separate tracking poll by the Gallup organization. IN other words, this is not two different slicings and dicings of the same survey.
--Josh Marshall
Pew Poll
The Pew poll has it's pre-Super Tuesday poll out. And for the Democrats it's continuing gains for Obama but still an 8 point margin. Clinton 46%, Obama 38%. Clinton has had the exact same number in the previous polls taken at the end of December and mid-January while Obama has gone from 26% to 31%.
On the Republican side, it's all McCain: McCain 42%, Romney 22%, Huckabee 20%.
--Josh Marshall
Zogby Numbers
John Zogby has his first set of rolling numbers out of the Super Tuesday states he's tracking. And it's very good news for Barack Obama. Zogby has Obama up by 4 points in California, down by one in Missouri, up by 20 in Georgia, and down by one in New Jersey.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, like pretty much everyone else, has John McCain set for big wins across the country, with the exception weirdly enough of California, the biggest prize of the night. Zogby has Mitt up by 3.
--Josh Marshall
