The Big Picture
Just think that a couple weeks ago the entire campaign was engulfed by scrutiny of Obama's suggestion that he might be "refining" his plan for a 16 month timetable for withdrawal -- a twitter, if that, on the seismograph of campaign course corrections. Now consider that over the span of a few weeks Sen. McCain has gone from predicting a decades long presence of American troops in Iraq and attacking any discussion of timetables for withdrawal to endorsing Maliki's push for a 16 month timetable and tying himself in knots trying to explain why what Maliki's endorsing is any different from Obama's.
When confronted with Maliki's own words saying that he supports what Obama supports, McCain now falls back on that last redoubt of philanderers, asking the American people, "Who you gonna believe? Me or your lyin' eyes?"
For all the seismic shifts that have taken place over the last two weeks, we need to recognize that McCain has now abandoned virtually everything he's been campaigning on for the last year. There's really no more eloquent confirmation of that reality than the fact that McCain now appears determined to base his campaign on charges that Obama is unpatriotic and despises American soldiers.
Here, from Friday, is McCain's big screen star turn with the shark ...
--Josh Marshall
Small
Frank Rich on McCain: "a candidate so oblivious to our nation's big challenges ahead that he is doubling down in his campaign against both Mr. Maliki and Mr. Obama to be elected commander in chief of the surge."
--Josh Marshall
True Colors
McCain's new ad, which you can see here, is really beyond disgusting. At this point I think it's clear that honor really doesn't mean much to McCain. When things get tough, as it is in this election campaign, there's no limit to what he'll do.
How's he doing, Joe?
--Josh Marshall
Ahhh, for Yestermonth
Time, March 21st, 2008 ...
Flanked by fellow Senators Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham, McCain noted they'd undertaken their week long fact-finding tour of Iraq, Jordan, Israel, England and France as members of Congress's Armed Services committee -- not as some sort of campaign foreign road show. Perhaps, but discussing international affairs with foreign leaders and enhancing McCain's presidential hopes aren't mutually exclusive. Still, McCain acted the apt pupil. "I wish every senator, every senator would make this same trip," McCain said, noting several of the first-hand educational experiences he'd gotten. "They'd be better informed."
Snatched from the memory hole by TPM Reader RB.
--Josh Marshall
Election Central Saturday Roundup
An open microphone catches Barack Obama saying he plans to take a week off from the campaign trail in August. That and other political news in today's Election Central Saturday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Bliss
Given what I do I mainly see youtube through the prism of political video -- viral video, our short commentary pieces, etc.; when I have my publisher's hat on I keep up on the latest business developments in advertising, distribution and so forth. But every once in a while, usually late in the evening, I stumble into the wealth of live performances just sitting there in this massive collection, waiting to be seen. I spend a couple hours overwhelmed by what I find. I'm amazed that I don't spend hours poking around and listening every night. And then I get pulled back in by work or whatever else has my attention and it's lost to me for months or more.
Here's Louis Armstrong & Jack Teagarden singing Rockin' Chair at the Newport Jazz Festival in 1958. Always been one of my favorite duets, never seen them perform it. There's another live recording of these two singing this song that has just an edge more of the sadness in the intonation. That's the one I like best. But this is pretty good ...
--Josh Marshall
Work For TPM Election Central?
As regular readers know, Election Central is TPM's election and politics site. As we head into the thick of the 2008 election cycle, we're considering staffing up a bit at Election Central. Particularly, we want a third blogger-reporter, mainly to dig deeper into House and Senate races around the country. This would be a temporary gig, basically for the last ten to twelve weeks of the election cycle. So the ideal person would be someone who knows Congress and elections, has reporting experience and is currently freelancing (so they'd have the flexibility to take the job). Of course, another prerequisite is wanting to hang out with us through the most insane part of the election cycle. So if you're interested, send me an email at our comments email address on the upper right with the subject header "Election Central Gig". Just a resume and email/letter explaining your interest in the gig.
--Josh Marshall
Keep It Simple
I was working on a draft of a post digging into all the problems with Sen. McCain's explanation of why he's all for Maliki's 16 month timetable for withdrawal and dead-set against Obama's 16th month timetable for withdrawal. But I think that sentence alone illustrates how thin a strategic branch Sen. McCain is now standing on.
--Josh Marshall
Same Ole', Sam Ole'
Even politicizing the State Department. ThinkProgress shows how the State Department pressed a narrow interpretation of Department guidelines in restricting Foreign Service Officers in Berlin from any involvement in Sen. Obama's visit to Germany (which I actually think was a good idea). But just last month Sen. McCain gave a political speech in Canada which was both attended by and arranged by the US Ambassador. Give it a read.
Late Update: And it seems McCain got the Foreign Service treatment in Mexico City too.
--Josh Marshall
McCain: I Like Maliki's Timetable, Not Obama's
So in the interview that just ran on CNN, John McCain said that al Maliki's 16 month timetable for withdrawal from Iraq is a "pretty good timetable." He only adds that "they have to be based on conditions on the ground."
In other words, Barack Obama's 16 month timetable is a catastrophe but al Maliki's is "pretty good". And the difference is that al Maliki's is based on conditions on the ground and Obama's isn't -- even though they're both 16 months.
--Josh Marshall
McCain on CNN
Sen. McCain's made a series of pretty extraordinary statements on his interview on CNN. First, apparently Maliki didn't really mean what he said. Second, Wolf Blitzer read back to McCain his repeated claim that Obama would rather lose a war if it helped him win a political campaign. This is close to an accusation of treason. So Blitzer asked him whether this wasn't an attack on Obama's patriotism. McCain said 'no' that he was only questioning Obama's judgment. In any rational world the maverick label wouldn't survive a fib of that magnitude.
Perhaps best of all McCain appeared to embrace Maliki's timeline for withdrawal, but said there was no conflict with that also being Obama's timeline for withdrawal, because Maliki's was based on conditions and Obama's wasn't.
Last but not least, Blitzer asked McCain if it didn't make sense to scrutinize McCain's judgment in going to war in the first place if he's placing so much emphasis on scrutinizing Obama's judgment on the surge. McCain's answer, in so many words, that's old news.
We'll bring you video shortly.
--Josh Marshall
Another Line Blurred?
John McCain tells CNN that if Osama bin Laden were captured on his watch he'd be sent to an "internationally supported" Nuremberg-style tribunal.
--David Kurtz
Critic or Cheerleader? The Definitive McCain Iraq Timeline
John McCain has laid claim to having the courage, foresight and leadership to stand up to President Bush's mismanagement of the war in Iraq (the strategic miscalculation is another matter).
But was McCain the critic of Bush that he makes himself out to be? Or was he a unabashed supporter of the President and his "my way or the highway" approach to Iraq?
TPM Election Central set out to compile McCain's public statements on the War, and we've put together an extensive timeline.
The record is considerably muddier than McCain would have us believe. His criticisms about troop levels, while clear and unmistakable, were hardly outside the mainstream -- and were sprinkled in among regular and vocal praise for the President and his policies.
Late Update: The timelines we compile are in their nature works in progress. We compiled examples based on our own research, from McCain's website (which emphasized McCain's criticism) and from other lists focused on examples of McCain's support for Bush's policies. And we believe our list provides an accurate representation of the totality of McCain's comments over the years. But inevitably many examples have been left out. So review our list and if you believe you have more examples that should be included in the list send them to our comments email address with the subject heading "McCain Timeline". Be sure to include the exact quote as well as a citation to the source of the quote -- jmm.
--David Kurtz
News to Him ...
Here's Mark Halperin's top of the page headline at 'The Page'. Rush devoting show to attacks on Obama's overseas trip. That's the top news of the day ...
The text at the bottom reads "El Rushbo uses his Friday show to express obvious frustration about Obama's mid-course corrections on the international trip."
--Josh Marshall
Walking a Fine Line
The Pentagon confirms to TPM Election Central that military officials told the Obama campaign he could not visit Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany yesterday with campaign aides in tow because that would violate DOD regs.
"We informed the Obama staff that he was more than welcome to visit as Senator Obama, with Senate staff. However, he could not conduct the visit with campaign staff," a Pentagon spokesperson tells EC.
--David Kurtz
Last Chance
Today's the deadline for applications for our Fall cycle TPM internship. Find all the details here.
--Josh Marshall
Election Central Morning Roundup
CQ changes its ratings on 14 House races -- 12 in the direction of the Dem. That and the day's other political news in the TPM Election Central Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Confessore in the Times ...
Four Spitzer administration officials violated the state's ethics law when they used the State Police last summer to gather travel documents they hoped would tarnish Joseph L. Bruno, then the State Senate majority leader, according to a report released on Thursday by the State Commission on Public Integrity.
--Josh Marshall
An Ominous Growth
In the post immediately below I referred to Obama's audition for the role of 'head of state/commander-in-chief'. And as a potential wartime president and in the rhetorical universe we're now living in, this CINC test is inevitable and important for Obama to pass. But we should not forget how novel and in many ways pernicious the elevation of this term is.
At some points during the Republican primary campaign especially, CINC was being used almost as a synonym for president -- much as we might substitute 'chief executive' for president. And the growing use of the term in this sense is an effective barometer of the progressive militarization of our concept of the presidency and our government itself.
We see it here in its semantic form but we can observe its concrete effect in the Bush administration's claims of almost absolute presidential power well outside of war-fighting -- almost as if the president is a kind of warlord simultaneously directing the military and the civilian governments with similar fiat powers.
We need to re-familiarize ourselves with the fact that the point of the constitution's explicitly giving the president the title of commander-in-chief was not to make him into a quasi-military figure. It was precisely the opposite -- to create no doubt that the armed forces answered not to a chief of staff or senior general or even a Secretary of Defense (originally, Secretaries of War and Navy) but to a civilian elected officeholder who operates with the constrained and limited power of that world rather than the unbound authority of military command.
We've gotten the relationship seriously out of whack.
--Josh Marshall
Long Term
After it became clear that Obama's trip through the Middle East was not only error-free but wildly successful (because of Maliki's gambit), there's been a third wave of press chatter and fretting to the effect that Obama's trip may now be too successful, that voters on the home front would rather have him stateside addressing their concerns than being feted by adoring Europeans. Joe Klein actually had a good post on this at Swampland yesterday. In the short term sense, I don't think watching Obama walk on water in Europe (or in whatever lakes or rivers they have available) will goose his poll numbers. It may even have a bit of the reverse effect. The key was banking a solid trip abroad, an audition for the head of state/commander-in-chief role, that he'll be able to refer back to (mostly implicitly, sometimes explicitly) during the tough weeks ahead in the fall.
So I don't think anyone should be surprised that his numbers aren't spiked. The reverse might even happen. But it's still a key step since fundamentally this election is about hiring Obama, and overcoming the residual doubts (about his newness, youth, funny name, whatever) that are allowing John McCain even to stay in contention.
It's not Obama v. McCain. This is about Obama, with McCain as the alternative.
--Josh Marshall
Heartening
According to this post by Matt Stoller at OpenLeft, every major Democratic senate challenger this year (judged by very expansive criteria) supports Net Neutrality.
--Josh Marshall
Lurita!
Oh, how we missed Lurita Doan! No cookies on the table. No memory loss. No private sass.
Never before had the chief of the General Services Administration drawn such attention, and maybe never again. So bad was her performance that she was one of the select few Bush Administration officials who were abruptly shown the door by the White House.
But now she returns, as a commentator for Federal News Radio (at 1050 on your AM radio dial in the District) with her very own segment, magnificently titled "Leadership Matters." Oh, indeed, it does. And who better to prove it to us than Lurita herself.
Here's one of the forehead-smacking pearls of wisdom Lurita has bestowed on us already: "A leader is not afraid to admit that something may not be going right, because everyone understands that you can never fix a problem unless you can admit that you're having one."
One marvels, but not before wondering, "Is she speaking there in the hortatory subjunctive?"
I trust our DC listeners will be tuned in for Lurita's premiere at 7:28 a.m. Tuesday, but for those who can't wait that long, we offer this reprise of Lurita's greatest hits:
--David Kurtz
Citizens of the World
Offending phrase highlighted ...
And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country.My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.
Finally, whether you are citizens of America or citizens of the world, ask of us the same high standards of strength and sacrifice which we ask of you. With a good conscience our only sure reward, with history the final judge of our deeds, let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God's work must truly be our own.
John Kennedy, Inaugural Address
Flagged by TPM Reader MA.
--Josh Marshall
Today TPM, Tomorrow the World
Tomorrow's the deadline for applications for our Fall internship. If I don't say so myself, it's a good gig. Certainly a lot of hard work but TPM interns work in the core functions of our operation pretty much from day one -- researching, formatting the news section, editing video, even writing bylined posts. About half our staff is made up of former interns and other recent interns have gone on to work at the Washington Post, Huffington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Sun, Think Progress and more. For instructions on how to apply, click here.
--Josh Marshall
Loaded Questions
We dug into the internals on the latest Fox News poll, and some of the questions might surprise you (or might not, since it's Fox).
Example: Have you heard any of your friends and neighbors say there is something about Barack Obama that scares them?
There's more.
--David Kurtz
Obama In Berlin
The speech:
Late Update: TPM Election Central analyzes the speech here.
--David Kurtz
Don't Hide the Fudge!
Okay, this one's just for fun. You know, John McCain's been having a rough few days on the image and message front. Had to cancel the visit to New Orleans and the Gulf Oil rig because of the recent oil spill. And here he is doing a media availability in front of a big sign that says 'Fudge Haus' which he improbably refers to as the 'Sausage Haus' ...
(Ed.note: A rapid fire TPM investigation revealed that while McCain and Sen. Lindsay Graham were standing in front of "Schmidt's Fudge Haus" there is a nearby "Sausage Haus". So possibly he and Graham went to 'Sausage Haus' before stopping over for some post sausage fudge.)
Late Update: Occasionally one part of TPM doesn't know what the other is doing. As it turns out, at noon today Greg Sargent reported at Election Central that McCain did very much patronize the Sausage Haus. Greg even spoke directly to Farah Hice, hostess at the Haus to confirm McCain's meal. So McCain must have first eaten at the Sausage Haus before going over to stand in front of the Fudge Haus sign to do his media availability.
--Josh Marshall
Seriously?
Former CIA Director Porter Goss has been appointed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) as co-chairman of the new Office of Congressional Ethics.
Late Update: For those who may not recall, Goss' disastrous run as CIA chief ended with his abrupt resignation in 2006, shortly after the FBI raided the home and office of the then-No. 3 at CIA, Dusty Foggo, who was later indicted as part of the Brent Wilkes/Duke Cunningham corruption scandal.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: It's the Surge, Stupid
If you're desperate to be John McCain's vice presidential nominee, you better get on TV and start talking up the Surge as the single most important issue in this year's presidential campaign. And if you're serious about getting picked it wouldn't be a bad idea to say John McCain invented the idea of the surge and maybe even coined the word either. In today's episode of TPMtv we check in on some of the wannabes to see just how bad they want it ...
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
--Josh Marshall
Nothing to Fear
Todd Gitlin stumbles upon Franklin Roosevelt's 9th State of the Union Address: "Our people are not afraid"
--David Kurtz
Ouch
Looks like some of our favorite 'wingers are set to have their hearts broken by the good folks at BMW Direct.
Yesterday in the New York Post, Michelle Malkin was positively giddy at the "jaw-dropping political miracle [that] may be on the horizon."
Namely, the challenge to veteran Democratic Rep. John Murtha (D) being mounted by Army reservist William Russell. And she's so bullish on his chances of ousting Murtha because of the nearly $670,000 he's raised in the second quarter -- a stunningly high total.
Unfortunately for the GOP, Russell appears to be yet another little-known candidate who's turned over his fundraising to BMW Direct, the best-practices direct mail outfit that pulls back in fees 90% to 95% of the funds they raise for their clients. Andrew Tilghman has the story.
--Josh Marshall
Reality Check
McCain pulls ahead in Colorado and closes the gap in Michigan and Minnesota, according to new Quinnipiac polls.
--David Kurtz
Election Central Morning Roundup
Obama's big speech in Berlin is at 1 p.m. ET. That and the day's other political news in the TPM Election Central Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Ginger Cruz Update
As you'll recall, 2007 was the first year of the annual Golden Dukes "to recognize great accomplishments in muckiness including acts of venal corruption, outstanding self-inflicted losses of dignity, crimes against the republic, bribery, exposed hypocrisy and generally malevolent governance." One of our nominees in the category of Outstanding Achievement in Corruption-based Chutzpah was Ginger Cruz, the Deputy Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR). Sen. Larry Craig (R) of Idaho ended up taking the award in that category.
But now Ms. Cruz sends along news on two important new developments.
Earlier this month a grand jury investigating the case declined to indict Cruz and her boss, Stuart Bowen. And several days later the President's Council on Integrity and Efficiency similarly cleared Cruz and Bowen of wrongdoing.
Stay tuned for the 2008 Golden Dukes, coming up right after the November Election.
--Josh Marshall
Speed Demon
I've hesitated to touch on this incident with Bob Novak running over a pedestrian and apparently speeding off as though nothing happened. He's a controversial figure and the case is so weird that it sort of speaks for itself; blogging about something like that is like fishing in a stocked pond -- no sport in it.
But looking at the report of what happened, according to the bicyclist who eventually got Novak to stop, David Bono, Novak hit the guy, a 66 year old man walking in cross walk with a walk signal. He told The Politico "a black Corvette convertible with top closed plows into the guy. The guy is sort of splayed into the windshield."
And Bono didn't think it was credible that Novak didn't realize he'd hit the guy. "There was a pedestrian splayed on his windshield -- I don't think there is anyway you can miss that," Bono said.
Note to that the original report that the victim got off with just some bumps and bruises don't seem to be quite right. According to ABC's DC affiliate WJLA ...
The pedestrian who was struck by prominent Washington columnist and commentator Robert Novak is in worse shape than first thought, a hospital source tells ABC 7 News.The victim, a 66-year-old man, appeared somewhat incoherent, said the source who had seen the victim. The man appeared to have casts on his neck and back. The victim was X-rayed and a surgical team plans to evaluate him, the source said.
Now, Novak says he didn't realize he'd hit anyone. And if that's true it removes a great deal of the moral and potential criminal liability. But it puts in real question whether Novak should be driving a car. If you can be driving through the relatively compact streets of downtown Washington, hit a pedestrian so that he rolls up on to your windshield and then trundles off onto the ground and you don't notice, should you really be driving?
Think about that. For most of us I think having anything make contact with your car while you're in motion is very jarring, as it should be. That's certainly been my experience. And you don't notice when you plow into a guy and he rolls up on your windshield? I don't get that.
--Josh Marshall
When In Doubt, Invade
The whole thing is good. But this is my favorite graf from Fred Kaplan's Slate article about McCain's foreign policy 'experience' ...
It may be time to reassess this narrative's premise--or to abandon it altogether and simply examine the evidence before us. Quite apart from the gaffes, in formal prepared speeches, McCain has proposed certain actions and policies that raise serious questions about his suitability for the highest office. As president, he has said, he would boot Russia out of the G-8 on the grounds that its leaders don't share the West's values. He would form an international "League of Democracy" as a united front against the forces of autocracy and terror. And though it's not exactly a stated policy, he continues to employ as his foreign-policy adviser an outspoken, second-tier neoconservative named Randy Scheunemann, who coined the term "rogue-state rollback" and still prescribes it as sound policy.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Just a Matter of History
In the past week John McCain and his surrogates have done their best to focus the entire McCain-Obama debate on the question of which candidate was right about the troop surge in Iraq. So it was a little surprising to see McCain on the CBS Evening News last night get a basic historical fact about the surge so plainly wrong ...
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
Late Update: And if you do question McCain's version of history, all you're doing is trying to steal the credit the troops deserve, a McCain surrogate claims.
--Ben Craw
The Secret to Obama's Success
M.J. Rosenberg: Turns out you're a better politician when you know what you're talking about.
--David Kurtz
Rove: I Had Nothing to do with Siegelman!
TPMmuckraker has obtained written answers from Karl Rove to questions posed to him by Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX) about the suspected politically-motivated prosecution of former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman.
Says Rove repeatedly in response to a list of 14 questions from Smith, the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee:
I have never communicated, either directly or indirectly, with Justice Department or Alabama officials about the investigation, indictment, potential prosecution, prosecution, conviction, or sentencing of Governor Siegelman, or about any other matter related to his case, nor have I asked any other individual to communicate about these matters on my behalf. I have never attempted, either directly or indirectly, to influence these matters.
--David Kurtz
Halo
It's lucky for McCain that Barack Obama is the one with a hubris problem. Otherwise, this McCain poster in support of his campaign to be elected God might raise some eyebrows ...
--Josh Marshall
Can You He'p a Bewildered Economist?
Dean Baker is looking for legitimate reasons for the federal government to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders.
--David Kurtz
Deep, Deep in Denial
Fred Hiatt on Iraqis' thorough opposition to Obama's embrace of defeat.
In all candor, the Post's news reporting is so good. It must be an embarrassment for the reporters to have such a dead-ender running the editorial page. The tendentiousness, special pleading and denial now transcend farce. It's an embarrassment.
The reckless inexperience of Obama is now contained within the yawning gap between Obama's plan for 16th months and the Iraqis' plan for as long as 23 months.
--Josh Marshall
Election Central Morning Roundup
When the Surge is all you got, as John McCain does, you stretch its time frame a bit to include as much good news as possible. (Next up: without the Surge, there would have been no polio vaccine!) That and the day's other political news in the TPM Election Central Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
That's The Ticket!
This a screen capture of the Times video on the Mitt-McCain rapprochement.
I think they should choose this as the official McCain-Romney campaign photograph.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: A Chat With Gavin Newsom
We caught up with San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom at Netroots Nation, where he introduced the closing keynote speaker, environmental and social justice activist Van Jones. In a wide-ranging conversation, we talked about green policy measures he's implemented in his city, his possible candidacy for governor of California, and his wedding coming up this weekend ...
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
--David Kurtz
The Big Sort
What happens to political minorities in communities with large political majorities?
According to author Bill Bishop, they shut up.
--David Kurtz
White House Still Trying to Explain Away Maliki
The White House's reaction to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's embrace of Sen. Barack Obama's 16-month withdrawal timetable is the like the five stages of grief.
When a guy you more or less install in power and keep there on a very short leash starts going off the reservation, you first claim there was some sort of translation error. Then you claim that what he says is not what he means. When he continues to reiterate the point, you assert that he knows not of what he speaks.
And when he becomes adamant on the point, you do what White House press secretary Dana Perino tried to do today, just pretend that nothing Maliki has said trumps the earlier joint statement issued by the U.S. and Iraqi governments last week: "It is no small thing for two leaders to issue a statement; it is one that was taken with care and with seriousness."
Fun times in the White House briefing room:
--David Kurtz
Fascinating
Just to add more confirmation to the painfully obvious, it turns out that not only did Prime Minister Maliki say what he said. According to Der Spiegel, his office signed off on this specific quote before the article went to press. In other words, the entire misunderstanding, misstatement, mistranslation, miswhatever meme is utter nonsense. You knew that. But just to remove any doubt.
Also, as long as we're on the subject, and not to get too Frantz Fanon on anyone, but Sunday and Monday there was a meme circulating through a lot of the Maliki reportage that Maliki frequently misspeaks or says things that later need to be corrected. Well, sure. I guess that's one way of putting it. Maybe, this incident aside, Maliki is terribly gaffe-prone. Who knows? But this little circus puts that idea in a particular sort of light.
--Josh Marshall
Bacillus Whinius Spreads
It appears that the whininess virus may be spreading out from the McCain campaign to various pro-McCain journalists. You may have noticed that Robert Novak caused a stir yesterday by floating word that the McCain campaign was on the brink of choosing a vice presidential nominee. Now Novak suspects that the McCain folks tricked him into floating the now-allegedly-bogus story to pull a little attention from the Eurasian Obamathon. And now Novak says bamboozling him for a few cheap news hits was "reprehensible" ...
--Josh Marshall
Who's Actually Moving?
A number of readers flagged George Stephanopoulos' appearance on World News Tonight last night, in which he seemed to suggest that Obama had moved toward McCain's position on more troops for Afghanistan, when in fact as we all know it was McCain who last week changed positions and basically adopted the Obama policy prescription. Now I see that Media Matters is calling out ABC on it, too.
Maybe I come at this from a slightly different angle because the initial reports from readers were that Stephanopoulos claimed Obama had taken McCain's position on Afghanistan. So when I first saw the video myself, it fell short of being as egregious an error as I had expected:
It's a terribly awkward and essentially misleading construction that Stephanopoulos uses three times there to describe the Bush-McCain collapse on key policies toward Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran. But it's also clear that the underlying point he's trying to make is accurate: that so long as the lines between Obama and McCain are blurred, then McCain has lost what he believe to be his own signature issue.
Then again, maybe George is so brainwashed by GOP foreign policy dominance that he may simply think it's great for Obama that he's now in lockstep with the Republicans, even though the Republicans came to him.
--David Kurtz
Bush's 12-Step Economic Analysis
The Houston Chronicle has posted some video by the local ABC affiliate down there from inside a fundraiser President Bush attended there last week. Apparently Bush asked that cameras be turned off before saying, "Wall Street got drunk ---that's one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras --- it got drunk and now it's got a hangover." But not everyone turned off their cameras:
--David Kurtz
GOP Throws Stone in Glass House
A minor GOP attack line of the day on Obama's Iraq trip fails under the weight of its own hypocrisy.
--David Kurtz
Strategic Whining
From TPM Reader KB ...
Josh, I guess Phil Gramm was right. There are more than a few whiners in this country. Unfortunately for John McCain most of them seem to be working on his campaign. Right now his campaign's message seems to have devolved into a pathetic meta critique of the media. Are they running for the White House or for best commenter on Gawker? This focus on the media seems so pointless that, as an Obama supporter, I hope they stick with it to the neglect of a real message such as something on the economy, health care, border security, or anything that might actually move voters.
In truth, the nonsense is even thicker than KB can conjure. As you may know, the McCain campaign has just put out a web video called 'Obama Love' a mash-up of clips of various TV commentators gushing over Obama. But let's remember we've all seen the McCain Love video. It's called watching the last dozen years of political television. Indeed, the political press's reckless and giddy love for McCain is so universally acknowledged that McCain himself has often joked about the press as his "base." So what do we have here but a candidate who can't brook the idea of not campaigning on a wave of press adulation? And now he's framing his whole candidacy around a campaign of strategic whining about the claim that the political press is treating his younger opponent like he's been treated for over a decade. He's got the preening and envy of a sore losing runner-up for prom queen.
--Josh Marshall
Hard to Overstate McCain Trainwreck
Josh and I were discussing a little while ago just how complete the Republican collapse on foreign policy has been in the short span of just a few weeks. It's remarkable and hard to think of any recent historical parallels.
The implications for John McCain are hard to overstate, and Matt Yglesias gets it just right:
[McCain had] spent, several weeks with the main theme of his campaign being, quite literally, to criticize Barack Obama for not having been physically present in Iraq recently. This (of course) got Obama to go to Iraq, thus setting up a dilemma. Either Obama would survey the "progress" in Iraq and change his position, thus making him a flip-flopper, or else he would refuse to change his position, thus making him obstinate and out of touch with reality.But instead of either of those things happening, Obama went to Iraq and Iraqi leaders said he'd been right all along! That's about as close to "game, set, match" as you get in terms of real world events influencing your political campaign. What's more, given the domestic situation and John McCain's inability to talk about domestic issues persuasively, he can't afford to play for a draw on Iraq.
This is what happens when you build your entire campaign on the shifting sands of Iraq.
Late Update: Spencer Ackerman has more.
--David Kurtz
Ohio All Over the Map
A new Rasmussen poll just out gives McCain a 10-point lead in the key swing state. But a PPP poll out yesterday gave Obama an 8-point lead.
--David Kurtz
Obama World Tour '08: Day 4
Watching the Obama press conference this morning, Greg Sargent was again struck by how Obama is articulating a bold, muscular approach to foreign policy in addition to striking the usual Democratic theme of multilateralism, specifically appropriating language the GOP uses about Iraq and instead using it to describe Afghanistan.
--David Kurtz
Veepology
As we move through the down tempo period before the conventions, I'm looking forward to a period of severe dignity losses on the part of the major Republican veep wannabes. Rudy was making the rounds this morning talking up McCain and actually caught a ballgame with him a couple nights ago. But I have to wonder whether Rudy knows that there's actually no way McCain will ever pick him to be veep. I mean, think about it: that's just what McCain needs, a veep who can help him with moderates who don't find him sufficiently war-like and ill-tempered and Christian conservatives who don't think he's had enough affairs.
Anyway, I don't think Rudy will provide the best entertainment because he's got to know it's not going to happen. On the other hand, Mitt Romney's stock seems improbably on the rise. He brings his own fundraising base. Like many other faltering financial institutions, he's recently done a major write-down. And for comic value, Mitt was always our favorite.
Crist seems to want it too much to be chosen. If McCain picked Fred Thompson it could be that like that astronaut movie from the 90s where a bunch of old Mercury/Gemini astronauts go up into space to repair some archeo-satellite. But a combined age of 140 during the first year of office is probably unconstitutional. The Pawlenty guy is so boring and soft-soap he'll probably get picked, so I'd rather not talk about him.
I will say this: As underwhelming as McCain has been so far as a candidate, I still think he was the only remotely sensible choice for the Republicans. I am close to certain that had any of the other choices on offer been picked, especially Mitt, he'd be getting crushed at this point.
Who do you think McCain should pick? Either for the purposes of winning or for humor value.
--Josh Marshall
The Survivor
It's a latter-day illustration of the ancient paradox: Cretans always lie, said the Cretan.
Which brings us to our old friend Ahmad Chalabi. My friend Eli Lake, a lieutenant, perhaps now a capo, in the DC neocon army, reports that Chalabi is now claiming that it was on his advice that Prime Minister al Maliki tipped his hand in favor of Barack Obama's withdrawal plan in his comments to the German magazine Der Spiegel.
Meanwhile, surgemeister Fred Kagan says Maliki really wants us to stay but the Iranians are pressuring him.
Of course, US intelligence alleges that Chalabi has worked as an Iranian spy. So perhaps there's a unified theory of Chalabi bamboozlement that a more systematic mind than I can construct.
Or perhaps we just go with Occam and figure that Chalabi had nothing to do with it at all but wants to snag some credit on the cheap.
--Josh Marshall
Election Central Morning Roundup
Barack Obama will hold a press conference in Jordan at 10 a.m. ET, while John McCain will be holding a town hall meeting in New Hampshire. That and the days other political news in the TPM Election Central Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
California 46th CD
This year long-time Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) has a real challenger, Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook (D-CA). And we interviewed her at this last weekend's Netroots Nation conference in Austin ...
--Josh Marshall
Dry Goods?
Blackwater is getting out of the security contracting business because "U.S. government scrutiny and negative media attention had made the business too costly."
So what's the new racket? Dry goods? Day care?
Actually, the AP article says they're now going to focus on "training, aviation and logistics."
Come to think of it, 'training, aviation and logistics' sounds a lot like military contracting. But who knows.
Eric Kleefeld suggests another possibility. As a partisan Republican mercenary outfit, they may rightly anticipate slackening sales under a Democratic president.
--Josh Marshall
Update on al-Dabbagh
Earlier today I flagged the question of just what Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said today about the Iraqis' timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. The year 2010 puts them more or less in line with Barack Obama's stated plan. But there was some question about whether he said during 2010 or by the end of 2010.
Looking at the evening reports in the LA Times and NY Times, it seems clear that he did say 'by the end' of 2010.
The LAT described this as "roughly the same time frame laid out by Barack Obama, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, who has called for removing most troops by the summer of that year."
Says the NYT: "Mr. Obama has said he would seek to withdraw American combat forces over 16 months if he is elected president, starting upon taking office in January, meaning his plan would be completed on roughly the same timetable as suggested by the Iraqis."
So following up on my post this afternoon, the Post seemed to have the translation issue right -- but their tendentious editorializing still confirms me in my sense that the paper is pushing McCain.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: McCain Responds ... And Responds ... And Responds ...
With Barack Obama in the midst of a much-hyped trip to the Middle East and with all the news that came out over the weekend regarding the Iraqi government's positive comments toward Obama's withdrawal timetable, we figured it was only fair to allow John McCain a full episode of TPMtv to explain away the headlines ...
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
--Ben Craw
Karadzic Captured in Serbia
After nearly 13 years on the run, Radovan Karadzic, the former Bosnian Serb leader, was arrested this evening in a Belgrade suburb and turned over to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.
Karadzic is under indictment for war crimes stemming from the 1995 massacre of some 7,000 people (estimates vary) in Srebrenica and the siege of Sarajevo.
A late report from Reuters:
It brought people out in the night onto the streets of Sarajevo, the city his troops shelled mercilessly during a 43-month siege, to celebrate the capture of the man charged with authorizing the slaughter of 11,000 of their fellow citizens."I called and woke up my whole family," said Sarajevo resident Fadil Bico, as cars streamed through the streets honking horns and Bosnian state radio played excerpts of Karadzic's wartime hate speeches.
Serbia has been eager to be reincorporated into the larger European community and eventually join the EU. Karadzic's arrest is an important step in that direction and comes just two weeks after a pro-EU government came to power in Serbia.
When I was in Belgrade last month, the desire for a return to the community of nations was palpable among the Serbs I spoke with, although I was admittedly traveling in reform circles. "See, we're not bad," one eager Serb told me.
--David Kurtz
Condi?
It's entirely possible that Condi Rice simply feels its unseemly or inappropriate for a sitting Secretary of State to say who she's going to vote for for president. But her refusal to give an answer yesterday in response to Wolf Blitzer's question was enough to get us wondering ...
--Josh Marshall
Hop Into the Muck (Internship) Trenches!
Don't miss the deadline.
TPM brings on a new class of interns each season. And we're now taking applications for our Fall 2008 cycle. TPM interns are probably as intimately and rapidly involved in the preparation and production of news coverage as interns at any other news organization. And that ranges from work on the news section of the front page to research for our news blogs to video editing to bylined articles. Needless to say, this fall is going to have no shortage of political news. The application deadline is July 25th. To find out details for how to apply, click here.
--Josh Marshall
Stevens Trails in Latest Alaska Poll
A new Rasmussen poll shows that Anchorage Mayor has opened up an 8-point lead on Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), 52-44. Here's some of our interview with Begich from over the weekend at Netroots Nation:
--David Kurtz
TPMCafe Book Club: Bill Bishop
This week at the Book Club, Bill Bishop is joining us to discuss The Big Sort: Why The Clustering of Like-Minded America is Tearing Us Apart. He opens the discussion with a simple calculation: "In 1976, about a quarter of the voters lived in a county where either Jimmy Carter or Gerald Ford won by 20 percentage points or more. The number of people living in landslide communities increased steadily over the next seven presidential elections. And by 2004, in another very close vote, nearly half of all voters lived in one of these landslide communities."
--David Kurtz
Translation Issue or More WaPo Hackery?
We noted over the weekend that the Washington Post all but ignored the initial story of Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki announcing his support for Barack Obama's 16 month withdrawal plan. Now that the Iraqi government's de facto embrace of Obama's timetable (or something very close to it) is undeniable, the Post is highlighting the claim that the Iraqis' timetable is allegedly eight months longer than Obama's.
See WaPo currently front page hed ...
But is eight months even accurate? There appear to be contending translations of precisely what Iraqi government spokesman al-Dabbagh said, specifically whether he said during 2010 or by the end the year. The Times suggests that Reuters and the AP are the sources of the contending translations ...
Mr. Obama described his talk with Mr. Maliki as "a wonderful visit," but news agencies reported that a government spokesman said that they did not discuss the timing of any troop withdrawal. However, the spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, addressed the issue. According to Reuters, he said, "We cannot give any timetables or dates but the Iraqi government believes the end of 2010 is the appropriate time for the withdrawal." The Associated Press quoted Mr. Dabbagh as saying, "We are hoping that in 2010 that combat troops will withdraw from Iraq," but noting that any plans would have to change should violence rise.
Now, eight months seems a tad off regardless since presumably the clock on Obama's 16 months would start counting on roughly Feb.1st 2009 -- days after the inauguration of Bush's successor. But set that aside for the moment.
In this clip from MSNBC, al-Dabbagh says "up to 2010."
To be clear, precisely what al-Dabbagh said does seem a tad unclear at the moment. And I'd like more clarity on that question. But on the broader point, I'd hate to think the transparent agenda of the abysmal Post OpEd is bleeding over into the newsroom, whose news coverage, especially on foreign affairs, is consistently excellent.
--Josh Marshall
Obama Still Up in Ohio
A new Public Policy Polling shows a slight, within-the-margin-of-error narrowing in Obama's lead in Ohio, from 11 to 8 points.
--David Kurtz
Settled
With the Iraqis now walking back their walk-back, I think the translation issue is now moot. Here's spokesman al-Dabbagh, the guy who put out the walk-back statement released by CentCom, speaking just after Maliki's meeting with Obama. The new line. No need to call it Obama's timetable but we want a timetable with the exact same period of time.
Even the networks can't avoid it ...
Late Update: It must be getting serious. As TPM Reader EL points out, even The Page can't avoid it.
--Josh Marshall
More on Obama and the Surge
Following up on the 'Surge' and Obama, here's some good analysis from Juan Cole.
--Josh Marshall
Is It Enough?
After the events of the weekend, and taking into account the McCain camp's response to Maliki's statements, it seems that John McCain now plans to run his campaign almost entirely on the surge, and his claim that he was right about it and Obama wrong.
Even taking that claim on its own terms, though, is that enough?
McCain implicitly concedes that he was wrong on getting into the war itself (concedes in as much as public opinion is firmly on the side of his being wrong and he realizes that). He's also now all but forced to concede to Obama's stand on the timing of withdrawal, in as much as the Iraqis are now being clear that they want US troops out in roughly the same period of time.
So he goes to the public with Obama being right and him wrong on starting the war in the first place and with the timing and approach to getting out -- but along the way he was right about the surge, so he should be president?
Maybe the hypothetical Barack says to the hypothetical McCain, "Fine, I'll take the hit on the surge. And you cop to being wrong about getting us into this mess in the first place and supporting it for years. And we'll call it even."
I find McCain's claim to being 'right about the surge' dubious but arguable. But even if you concede that, it leaves McCain talking about the past and conceding the real issue that is before the public.
--Josh Marshall
Election Central Morning Roundup
Obama has arrived in Iraq and will be meeting with Gen. David Petraeus and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. That and the day's other political news in the TPM Election Central Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Reed Hundt explains the wisdom of Al Gore's focus on the electricity grid and zero-carbon emission electricity generation.
--Josh Marshall
New Details Emerge
In the unfolding Maliki/Obama story, here are two new articles you should read. The first is in Monday's New York Times. Though the headline is misleading ("Iraqi Premier Steps Back on U.S. Troops Comment"), the article itself is quite good. And it contains two key details.
First, any question of mistranslation or misunderstanding is put to rest. The interpreter was al Maliki's, not Der Spiegel's. And Der Spiegel provided the Times with a tape recording of the interview, which was then independently translated and confirmed the accuracy of the original Der Spiegel account.
There is also a more detailed explanation of the White House's pressure on the Iraqi government (first reported in the Post) to walk back Maliki's comments. The gist of the White House's explanation is that the Iraqis and Maliki specifically were simply too unsophisticated to grasp the implications of Maliki's remarks.
The key passage from the Times ...
The interview prompted immediate concern from the Bush administration, which called to seek clarification from Mr. Maliki's office, American officials said.Scott M. Stanzel, a White House spokesman with President Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Tex., said that embassy officials explained to the Iraqis how the interview in Der Spiegel was being interpreted, given that it came just a day after the two governments publicly announced an agreement over American troops.
"The Iraqis were not aware and wanted to correct it," he said.
For those unconvinced by this wet-behind-the-ears theory of the remarks, AP Baghdad Bureau Chief Robert Reid portrays the controversy as part of the Maliki's government's effort to take the upper hand in negotiations with US over the future of the American military deployment in the country.
Writes Reid: "The goal is not necessarily to push out the Americans quickly, but instead give Iraqis a major voice in how long U.S. troops stay and what they will do while still there." Key issues are "U.S. demands for extensive basing rights, control of Iraqi airspace and immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law for U.S. soldiers and private contractors."
Part of Reid's argument is that Maliki's remarks are intended in part as bows to public opinion within Iraq. Indeed, this seems to be the Bush administration's basic response to the imbroglio, that this isn't so much Maliki speaking as Maliki playing to restive Iraqi public opinion.
But as others have argued, to the degree to which we are trying to foster a democracy in Iraq, it is a distinction without a difference. If an Iraqi leader must oppose a continuing US military presence in order to stay in power, then clearly the days of the US military presence in Iraq are numbered.
Any understanding of what is happening here has to begin by dismissing out of hand the White House's ludicrous and insulting suggestion that Maliki didn't realize what he was saying. I assume we're all grown up enough to realize that Maliki didn't just give Obama's plan a thumbs-up for no other reason than that he thought it sounded like a good idea. As the Times notes, upon reviewing the taped interview in the original, it was Maliki and not the Spiegel interviewers who raised Obama's name. There are, yes, various levels of nuance and jockeying. But what it comes down to is what it looked like at the start. The premise of John McCain's campaign is that Obama's timetable for withdrawal from Iraq shows his naivete and threatens to squander the improvements on the ground in the country. But Maliki, who is constantly presented as the embodiment of what we are trying to foster and build, disagrees. No amount of teeth-gnashing spin from the McCain camp will get around that fact.
--Josh Marshall
Cuz Bush Says So
Ouch. Chait catches Halperin falling for the 'clarification' hook, line and sinker.
Also of interest ... A tree grows in Brooklyn. And with this story at least the AP's got a pretty decent lede.
--Josh Marshall
What a Surprise
Bush administration officials leaned on Maliki's office to issue 'clarification.'
Remember too that as far as I know the Prime Minister's office has yet to release any statement itself. The statement was released by CentCom and Multi-National Force-Iraq.
--Josh Marshall
Nice Try
Der Spiegel is standing by its story, its translation of what Maliki said.
And as Ben Smith aptly puts it, "It's almost a convention of politics that when a politician says he was misquoted, but doesn't detail the misquote or offer an alternative, he's really saying he wishes he hadn't said what he did, or that he needs to issue a pro-forma denial to please someone. The Iraqi Prime Minister's vague denial seems to fall in that category. The fact that it arrived to the American press via CENTCOM, seems to support that."
Matt Yglesias enumerates the reasons why this 'walk back' almost certainly falls into the latter category.
I'll be watching to see whether the major papers continue to downplay the story. As Todd Gitlin notes, of the LA Times, Washington Post and NY Times, only the LAT put the story on the front page of their Sunday paper, though the Post had it as an ambiguous subhed on their front page Obama to War Zone story.
Notably and humorously, the Post editorial page appears to ignore the issue entirely.
Late Update: TPM Reader TB notes that weekend editorials are usually banked in advance and not written in response to the news of the preceeding day. In this case, the topic seems so central to the Post editors' concerns that I thought they might take a crack at it. But TB makes a good and fair point.
--Josh Marshall
Election Central Sunday Roundup
Joe Lieberman says the very fact of Barack Obama's upcoming visit to Iraq is proof that John McCain was right about the war and the surge. That and other political news in today's Election Central Sunday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Netroots Nation Sunday Blogging
San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom just introduced the concluding speaker here at Netroots Nation, Van Jones (two ridiculously good-looking guys, by the way). First time I've heard Newsom speak in person. He is indeed high-wattage, a policy wonk with a commanding stage presence and no end of charisma.
I'll confess to having no idea who Van Jones was before last week, to the dismay of Andrew Golis, our deputy publisher, who's been giving me no end of grief about that. For those of you who don't know Van, he's a Yale law grad who went on to found the Ella Baker Center for Human Rights in Oakland and is president of Green for All, which focuses on the unequal impacts of environmental degradation and climate change on the poor and disenfranchised.
Van arrived in Austin directly from an 8-day boat trip above the Arctic Circle with President Carter, Madeline Albright, Google's Larry Page and other business and political leaders.
We're going to be interviewing Van after his speech for TPMtv and will bring you that interview in the coming days.
--David Kurtz
Strange Bedfellows
Former Rep. Bob Barr (R-GA) showed up at Netroots Nation Saturday. Barr is the Libertarian candidate for President, but he's still best known his over-the-top buffoonery during the Clinton impeachment saga, so his presence at a gathering of progressive Democrats had some of the same dissonance for me as seeing former Nixon counsel John Dean here. Times change. Maybe people do, too:
--David Kurtz
McCain Following Obama Meme
Here's a campaign memo the Obama campaign released today about McCain following Obama on key foreign policy issues.
--Josh Marshall
