New Brand Kinda Like The Old Brand
Mitt Romney: "We are the party of the revolutionaries, they [Democrats] are the party of the monarchists."
--Josh Marshall
Scenes on the Road to Marriage Equality
It used to be that when you saw two men and one woman under a chuppah, everyone's assigned role was clear. Not any more.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Saturday Roundup
The GOP is already gearing up to make political hay out of the Supreme Court vacancy -- and conservative groups are already preparing to raise some money. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Saturday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Numbers Coming Into Focus
We have some more tentatively encouraging news emerging about the Swine Flu virus.
Yesterday, we noted that the Mexican government had substantially revised downward the number of deaths attributed to the Swine Flu, from 159 to 84, after tests had ruled out many of the suspected cases.
Now comes word from the Times that Mexican officials have now reported that of the 908 suspected cases that have now been tested, only 397 turned out to have suffered from the Swine Flu.
Finally, there appears to be some clinical evidence suggesting that people over 60 may have some immunity to the virus.
--Josh Marshall
Who?
Who can tell me the names of some good, up-and-coming political comics in New York City?
--Josh Marshall
Amazing Numbers
You've probably seen some version of this data in numerical form. But it's still eye-popping in a graph ...
The graph on the left charts party identification over the last six years. Democrats held steady, then surged in the 2008 campaign and finally came down off those highs after the election. Republicans have been steadily down -- from just under 1/3 or the electorate in 2004 to just under a quarter now.
The graph to the right shows just this year. The lines look fairly similar -- but much less so when you see them in the context of the larger trend. That is, the Dems were coming off an extremely high 39% party affiliation and a build up into the election. For Republicans it's just a continuation of the same 5 year trend.
Just as noticeable -- independent affiliation is the biggest 'winner'. But for the moment at least, actual elections are zero sum games between the two major political parties. The Democratic 'brand' (we've got to understanding the world in something beside marketing terms) is holding up nicely. The GOP brand remains in steep decline.
--Josh Marshall
Scamming State Pension Funds is Big Bidness
More connections emerge in the broadening array of pay-to-play state pension fund scams. As Andrew Cuomo, who's investigating the case, puts it: "This is sort of like when you pull a thread on the sweater and that one thread starts to unravel the entire fabric. We're pulling threads and it turns out the other end of the thread is in New Mexico or Connecticut or Illinois or in California."
We pull some of the threads here.
--Josh Marshall
Our Slideshow of Arlen Smack
Which Republican had the most whacked reaction to Arlen Specter's party switch? Let's review the contenders ...
--Josh Marshall
Conservatism, Amnesia and Denial
On my previous post, TPM Reader MO says the following ...
Perhaps I'm only fairly sane as well, but I do think the GOP has a point. If you take Goldwater and Reagan as the baseline for conservatism, and perhaps H.W Bush as a reformed conservative, it's pretty easy to see why people like Sullivan, etc. don't consider the Bush years as conservative ones.
My earlier post was more assertion than argument, so let me expand on the point. There are many flavors of conservatism. And among them are many people who can look at President Bush's eight years in office and point to policies they didn't like. But that's not the standard. Or in any case it's a foolish one. The question is just how President Bush's actual tenure in office differs from previous Republican leaders who remain firmly in the pantheon.
I would start by casting off Goldwater because you really cannot compare candidacies, which are inherently aspirational and since they have no power can combine all sorts of totally contradictory impulses and be all things to all people. Along the same lines, political philosophies aren't based in pundits or really good books. They're a matter of political movements -- parties, records in office, political institutions, all of which exist in the fallen world of constrained options in the real world. So let's focus on the obvious counter-example, Ronald Reagan.
My sense is that for the vast majority of Republicans, their current and alleged beef with President Bush is that he espoused some sort of 'big government conservatism'. He was profligate with the nation's finances and left the country settled with huge structural deficits.
How is this different from Reagan's time in office exactly? They're actually surprisingly similar.
Both presidents pushed through big tax cuts, squeezed domestic discretionary spending, though never as much as opponents feared or supporters professed to hope for, and spent lavishly on defense. Having two big wars gave President Bush more to spend on. But the broad pattern is very similar. And both ended up leaving the country with really big deficits, though Reagan did a bit in the latter years of his administration to even the balance. Again, very, very similar. So either Bush is well within the conservative tradition or Reagan is another phony.
Perhaps you could argue that President Bush was too big government on the civil liberties and state power front. But it's the rump GOP which has staked its reputation on a principled embrace of torture, warrantless wiretapping and various other kinds of extra- and unconstitutional actions. So that doesn't strike me as credible. How else did President Bush's Republican party get away from its conservative roots.
Late Update: TPM Reader MS adds some snark ...
It's even more amazing that there were precious few voices on the right pointing out Bush's conservative heresy.If only the right-wing had some sort of mass media outlets at their disposal - you know, a book publisher or wonkish magazines or a cable TV news channel, just to pull three totally hypothetical examples out of thin air - to get the word out during Bush's time in office - when something could have been done about this heresy, in real time - that he was betraying conservatism.
--Josh Marshall
Amazing
It's truly amazing how much it has become an accepted truism, even among fairly sane people, that under George W. Bush the Republican party got away from its conservative roots.
--Josh Marshall
I Must Have You!!!
Debt collectors take cyber-stalking to boffo new lengths. In this case the debt collectors set up a website with a url version of the debtors name advertising the fact that she was behind on her car payments. JaneSmithIsn'tPayingHerBills.com, etc.
--Josh Marshall
What About Those Pig Flu Numbers?
There have been all sorts of confusing and contradictory numbers coming out of Mexico over the last few days relating to cases of Swine Flu and deaths attributed to it. What caught our eye was that the Mexican government actually announced that tests have now shown that a substantial number of the deaths (about half of them) originally attributed to Swine Flu were actually caused by different ailments. And only a very few have been confirmed as swine flu cases.
Dealing with statistics in a climate such as this is a tricky business because you don't want to inspire panic or sow complacency. What's more it's important to remember that the number of confirmed or suspected deaths in Mexico is just one variable of many in trying to find out how virulent the virus is. But we've been getting a lot of questions from readers about what these numbers mean and why they seem to be changing. So we've put together a post explaining the latest numbers and what's led to the changes.
(ed.note: To understand the bigger picture, here's a good piece from the LAT from yesterday which argues that there's a growing consensus that this mutation of swine flu is not as virulent as once feared. And here's a blog post by an infectious disease expert explaining why even if swine flu is very mild it would likely be hugely disruptive and a much bigger deal than the seasonal flu. The gist is that even if swine flu is no worse for each individual than the normal seasonal flu, so many more people could get it that it could put a massive strain on our health care system.)
--Josh Marshall
They Really Do Rule His World
Halperin finally goes for the full Helms ...
--Josh Marshall
Rebranding the Rebranding
Cantor: New GOP rebranding effort is not a rebranding effort.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
A battle-hardened veteran of judicial confirmation fights, Joe Biden is reportedly in charge of drawing up a list of potential Souter replacements. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
The Key Strategic Reasoning
AP: "Using U.S. military might to coerce Iran to halt its nuclear program would yield only temporary results, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday, adding that sanctions make more sense."
Everything stems from that judgment.
--Josh Marshall
Some Headlines are Golden
Like this one from Bloomberg: "Chrysler Lenders Tried Obama's Patience, Lost Game of Chicken"
--Josh Marshall
A Few More Thoughts
Some stories, like the Souter retirement, mainly speak for themselves. Almost to a certainty we knew President Obama would get one or more nominations to the Court. With Souter being the first, it seems likely he'll get one or two more in his first term.
I've heard a few people mention that this represents a political opportunity for the Republicans. But for the life of me I cannot see that. Supreme Court nominations are extremely high stakes battles for partisans on both sides and each party wants to hit a nomination struggle with the most political muscle possible. President Obama has extraordinarily high personal popularity at the moment. His approval rating, while down a bit off the inaugural high, has stabilized and even tracked up a bit at a strong 60%. His party is nearing 60 seats in the senate. And the Specter party-switch, while perhaps not that significant in numerical terms, has left the senate Republican caucus deeply split and demoralized -- with one faction savoring an emasculated, tea-bag-driven ideological purity and another disgusted with the party's ultras and anxious to reenter the actual national political conversation. In other words, it's about the worst footing imaginable for senate Republicans to try to defeat or stand united against whomever Obama chooses.
The way things might play out differently is if Obama chose someone who made it look like he was fatally over-reaching -- a nominee who could galvanize a sense that Obama's extremely powerful position right now made having a credible opposition party newly necessary. Unfortunately for the GOP, though, I just don't see that happening. He hasn't shown himself prone to mistakes like that, especially not errors rooted in excessive drama or over-extension. If anything the opposite.
And the truth is that when you mix Obama's personal popularity, the progressive issue tilt that's been especially evident in polls in recent days (see the ABC/WAPO and NYT/CBS polls) Obama just has a lot of room for maneuver.
That's not to say he can simply pick whomever he wants. The center-of-gravity will be with the centrists Dems, including their newest member, Arlen Specter.
It's been suggested that maybe this is not altogether a good thing for Obama and the Democrats. Because even though it's a Supreme Court appointment, it will take away all the political oxygen from issues like health care. But I think this is an example of why the whole metaphor of political oxygen makes no sense. There's only political power, which a president is constantly in the process of gaining or losing. Actual legislation takes time, which is always finite in Congress. But this isn't a legislative battle. Besides the intense politics and a few days of hearings, it's just a vote. It's also not something like a Truth Commission, which, whatever you think of it on the merits, is profoundly divisive. Neither applies, necessarily, to a Supreme Court nomination. A Supreme Court nomination is as likely to enhance Obama's standing and political power as diminish it. Which means there's no reason -- none that I see -- to see it as a zero sum going versus other priorities like health care.
--Josh Marshall
Just Out In Time for 100 Days
NBC says Souter is retiring.
Late Update: NPR says they broke the story. An email release says Nina Totenberg had the exclusive at 9:36 PM. "Totenberg reports that Souter is expected to remain on the bench until a successor has been chosen and confirmed, which may or may not be accomplished before the court reconvenes in October."
Later Update: Republicans were in such a good place. This should make them feel even better ... More seriously, this is a very bad development for the GOP; and quite a good one for the Democrats. Republicans had to hope this opportunity would come at a moment when Obama wasn't quite as popular as he is at this moment. What will he do with the opportunity?
Convo Update: Join the conversation in our Souter retirement discussion thread.
--Josh Marshall
Tipping Point?
I think most of us can see that despite some painful setbacks, and likely more to come, time is definitely on the side of marriage equality in the United States. But are we hitting some sort of tipping point under a new administration and with a rush of recent successes in several states around the country?
A few days ago, the NYT/CBS poll showed support for full marriage equality jumped a full 9 points over the course of one month -- from 33% support last month to 42% this month. According to NYT/CBS that's now the plurality position -- with the 'nos' divided between 28% oppose any legal recognition and 25% supporting civil unions. The overall numbers are very encouraging. But I was inclined to chalk the dramatic move over the course of a month up to statistical noise.
But a new poll out just this afternoon from ABC/WAPO shows 49% of the population supporting full marriage equality versus 46% opposing, the first time more have supported than opposed. We don't have a similar question in a recent ABC/WAPO poll. The last time the question was asked was in 2006 when 36% supported and 58% opposed (in itself a dramatic shift over a less than three years).
The counterpoint is a Quinnipiac poll that came out today showing 38% support and 55% opposition -- virtually unchanged from when Quinnipiac asked a similar question question last year (for 36%, con 55%). But here too the difference may be rooted in a subtle difference in the way the question was asked.
Last year Quinnipiac asked "In general, do you support or oppose same-sex marriage?" -- a similar wording to the other polls. But this year their question read: "Would you support or oppose a law in your state that would allow same-sex couples to get married?" (emphasis added).
It's speculation. But adding "in your state" may trigger a bit more discomfort in people who are only just warming to the idea.
All told, though, the trend, perhaps an accelerating one, is quite encouraging.
--Josh Marshall
GOP Twitterdammerung
Cataclysmic meltdown as GOPers bring lord of the flies frenzy to Twitter.
--Josh Marshall
Best Practices
Admittedly, Bush administration crony contracting stories are kind of a dime a dozen. But this one caught my eye. The Justice Department's Inspector General has found that a former Bush administration grant administrator, J. Robert Flores, violated departmental ethics rules (though prosecutors subsequently declined to prosecute). There were a flurry of cronyish grants given out in 2007 by Flores and his boss Regina Scholfield -- perhaps revealingly because that year there were no congressional earmarks constraining the administrators' discretion. But Flores got dinged for a particular series of contracts for anti-gang programs.
Flores issued contracts worth about $281,000 to Hector Rene Fonseca for anti-gang work over three years. Flores repeatedly tried to hire Fonseca on sole source contracts, even after higher level DOJ officials repeatedly tried to stop him from doing so.
The Post identifies Fonseca as a "former Columbian military official" who Flores says he repeatedly tried to hire because of his "ties to the faith-based community through a group called Samaritan's Purse."
Now, I don't want to paint with a broad brush. The Colombian state and thus the Colombian military has certainly had a difficult time dealing with vicious narco-traffickers and a long-standing insurgency. But my sense had always been that the Colombian military was perhaps not really entirely a best practices type operation. So what expertise exactly would a former official in the Colombian military -- a colonel, general? -- bring to eliminating gang violence in US cities? Sounds like if anything it might not be the kind of experience you'd want.
Well, that's what I thought before I did a little more sleuthing and discovered that Fonseca actually was never in the Colombian military. According to numerous press accounts, Fonseca is actually a former Colonel in the Honduran military.
He apparently got his start in US right-wing politics when he married Deborah Lynne De Moss, daughter of the right-wing philanthropist De Moss family, who was then Director of Latin American Affairs for Sen. Jesse Helms, generally known for archaic views on Latin American affairs generally. That was back in 1994.
Primed with that juice in the US and Honduras, Fonseca later ran for President of Honduras (though De Moss may have tripped up his chances by threatening to sic her "contacts" on Fonseca's enemies) before seeing those dreams come to naught and angling for a soft landing with right-wing crony welfare courtesy of the Bush Justice Department.
I feel like there's a lot more out there about this character. Care to share?
--Josh Marshall
National Party No More?
What does it mean that the head of the senate Republican campaign committee says he hopes to bring the GOP back to national party status?
--Josh Marshall
Time for Some Levity
Okay, swine flu, economic collapse, two foreign wars -- things are tough all over. But they're currently casting the Hollywood Jack Abramoff movie. And that means some pretty consequential casting decisions are being made. Kevin Spacey, it seems, has already secured the role of Jack Abramoff. But that leaves open the roles of any number of cartoonish political crooks and sundry micro-villains. So today we'll rolling out our Abramoff scandal slideshow, showing you who some of the top characters are going to be. And we're asking for your picks for who should play them. Take a look and let us know your choices.
--Josh Marshall
Doc Biden
Joe's going to get himself in hot water for these remarks on the swine flu this morning on the Today show, though kudos for his bracing honesty. It beats officialdom's "now is not the time to panic" mantra (when should you ever panic?):
Biden's office just released the following statement saying he wasn't going any farther than the official government line:
"On the Today Show this morning the Vice President was asked what he would tell a family member who was considering air travel to Mexico this week. The advice he is giving family members is the same advice the Administration is giving to all Americans: that they should avoid unnecessary air travel to and from Mexico. If they are sick, they should avoid airplanes and other confined public spaces, such as subways. This is the advice the Vice President has given family members who are traveling by commercial airline this week. As the President said just last night, every American should take the same steps you would take to prevent any other flu: keep your hands washed; cover your mouth when you cough; stay home from work if you're sick; and keep your children home from school if they're sick."
You be the judge.
--David Kurtz
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Some senior Democratic senators are less than thrilled with Arlen Specter's being allowed to keep his seniority. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Please Put Him In Charge
Michael Reagan on the state of the GOP ...
"It's interesting that people say the right has taken over the Republican Party -- but no one can say what we've done. We've been closeted for the last eight years; it's time for the right to come out of the closet."
--Josh Marshall
Prudent But Poignant
The bishop's special instructions to priests in the Diocese of Corpus Christi for the duration of influenza outbreak:
Due to the seriousness of the Swine Flu, which recently took the life of a child here in Texas, let us take the following measures as a precaution until the danger has passed:(1) The chalice is not to be shared with the faithful during Mass. Holy Communion is to be given only in the species of the consecrated bread.
(2) Give Holy Communion in the hand and not on the tongue.
(3) The faithful should be encouraged not to hold hands during the Our Father and to share the sign of peace without touching hands or kissing.
(4) Priests, deacons and extraordinary ministers of Holy Communion should be encouraged to practice special hygiene before Mass begins.
(5) Encourage parishioners not to come to Mass when they are sick.
(6) If people come forward for a blessing at communion time, the blessing should be given without touching them.
(7) Care should be taken to make sure that people with celiac or special needs may receive communion in a manner appropriate to their condition.
Once the emergency of this danger has passed, we will immediately return to our traditional practices.
--David Kurtz
GOP to Rebrand as "Whig" Party
In truly sobering times like this, I appreciate these moments of comic relief.
This just out from John King at CNN ...
Coming soon to a battleground state near you: a new effort to revive the image of the Republican Party and to counter President Obama's characterization of Republicans as "the party of 'no.'"CNN has learned that the new initiative, called the National Council for a New America, will be announced Thursday.
It will involve an outreach by an interesting mix of GOP officials, ranging from 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain to Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor and the younger brother of the man many Republicans blame for the party's battered brand: former President George W. Bush.
In addition to Sen. McCain and Gov. Bush, GOP sources familiar with the plans tell CNN others involved in the new group's "National Panel Of Experts" will include:
*Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a former national GOP chairman
*Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
*Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
You know things are really humming along when your 'rebranding' effort is led by your recently crushed presidential nominee and your discredited party leader's brother.
--Josh Marshall
Ettts a Wrap
What else to say, a very strong performance. Concise, clear, occasionally funny. And I think it would hold up reasonably well as prose. It would be funny, perhaps surreal, certainly not very credible how many simultaneous crises this guy has on his plate at the moment, if we weren't actually living through it -- and on the line for all the consequences. But his command of the situation seems remarkable. As I said in one of the liveblog posts, you can see in the reflection how and why the GOP is undergoing a collective nervous breakdown.
Guess the teleprompter thing hasn't panned out.
Late Snark: I waited through this whole thing and I don't get to hear Jindal's response?
--Josh Marshall
Ye Second 100 Day PrezConf Liveblogging ...
8:32 PM ... "Historic election"
8:33 PM ... Obama to Republicans: No, no, no isn't working.
8:37 PM ... Enchanted you the most? Maybe leave that one out.
8:38 PM ... Obama: I'm surprised the whole world is coming apart in every way all at the same time.
8:42 PM ... Sorry, I zoned for a second.
8:47 PM ... In case you missed it earlier, check out our slideshow of key moments in Obama's first 100 Days in Office.
8:49 PM ... This question on help for minority communities could be a treacherous one for Obama politically. But he's too deft. It's effortless.
8:52 PM ... Think this 'we only had a week' answer is going to come in for some scrutiny.
8:53 PM ... Obama owns these companies personally? He's going to make a f---kin killing.
8:53 PM ... "I've got more than enough to do." You're not kidding.
8:54 PM ... Just broad brush, you watch these press conference as a whole -- substance, atmospherics, rhetoric and you entirely understand (both as cause and result) that the Republican party is in a state of complete emotional and physical collapse.
8:56 PM ... Weismann to Obama: How 'bout the really fast cars? Cool right?
8:58 PM ... Ending on a few quick riffs.
--Josh Marshall
Ye Olde 100 Day PrezConf Liveblogging ...
8:02 PM ... On balance, I think Obama's response -- across the board -- to the flu crisis has been very strong, both substantively and symbolically. But the aggressive push to de-brand it as "swine flu" just kind of rubs me the wrong way. Isn't that a secondary priority? Can the Pork Council back off? (I'll explain more on this later.)
8:05 PM ... 'Torture' verboten as a practice but not a word.
8:07 PM ... How many Hundred Dayses are there in a presidency?
8:11 PM ... In terms of what the president can do, which is considerable, a pretty decent answer on Swine Flu.
8:15 PM ... Man, this guy's sort of relentlessly presidential. Maybe we can one totally disconnected or incoherent sentence just for old time's sake?
8:16 PM ... Ahh, my old pal Jake Tapper. Asks the torture question, gets a pretty solid answer.
8:20 PM ... Ahhh, but what about the Cheney memos? Obama: Yep, I read'em. Cheney's just jerking your chain.
8:22 PM ... Chuck Todd, good two syllable name. Could we invade and secure Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if the Taliban defeat the Pakistani army. Was actually a slightly weird answer. I think he just said he's not concerned that the Taliban is going to 'immediately' take over the country. Hopefully, that's not going to happen one way or another.
8:26 PM ... What about Iraq blowing up? (I've actually been thinking about this a lot recently. The other news keeps coming so fast and furious so I haven't had a chance to really dig into the story. But the major mass casualty attacks really do seem to be becoming pretty frequent.)
8:28 PM ... Chip Reid: Does Specter switch make you officially a tyrant? Obama: No, but Arlen won't have to be as whipped by GOP goons. So he'll be a better senator ... Congress is a co-equal branch of government. And the senate is more equal than others.
--Josh Marshall
The Fact Checkers Need Fact-Checking
The AP's Calvin Woodward does what purports to be "Fact Check" on Obama's talk today in Missouri, with gems like: "It actually was [Obama] -- and the other Democrats controlling Congress the previous two years -- who shaped a budget so out of balance."
--David Kurtz
Goss v. Harman?
More circumstantial evidence that the Porter Goss camp is behind the leaks of Rep. Jane Harman's alleged wiretapped indiscretions.
--David Kurtz
A CDO for Your Pension Fund?
It doesn't have quite the punch of the market collapse and all the hullabaloo surrounding the big national banks. But largely under the radar there's a major unfolding scandal tied to corruption of state pension funds. Basically cases in which hedge funds and other investment firms have buttered up state bureaucrats or elected officials to get their hand on public pension fund money for highly speculative or downright fraudulent investments. It got some high-profile attention when one part of the story ended Gov. Bill Richardson's hopes of being Commerce Secretary. But there's a lot more to the story.
--Josh Marshall
Specter Switch Foretells GOP Landslide
I always thought Sen. Inhofe was a pretty hardcore war on drugs guy. So what's he smoking?
--Josh Marshall
100 Days in 30 Photos
Sure, 100 days is pretty arbitrary. But, the pictures are pretty good.
--Josh Marshall
Who Says Only Obama Gets One?
Senate Guru reviews Michael Steele's first 100 days of greatness.
--Josh Marshall
Can We Just Indict Lanny?
I was thinking Jane Harman had a better case to make before she hired Lanny Davis to start making her case for her. That said, keep an eye on the developing reporting and commentary pointing to a lot of this being tied to former DCI Porter Goss's personal axe to grind with Harman.
--Josh Marshall
Breaking or Just Broken
Michele Bachman attacks Obama for being like FDR and bringing us the "Hoot-Smalley" tariffs before he even became president.
--Josh Marshall
Mindbreaking Work of Staggering Genius
Michael Steele involved in new plot to smoke out his enemies by coaxing them into taking away his control of the RNC's finances.
--Josh Marshall
Your Government Not At Work
Jon Stewart unpacks the Jane Harman-Gonzo-AIPAC-wiretapping imbroglio.
--David Kurtz
Grading on a Curve
Mark Halperin's 100 Days grade for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: B-
Mark Halperin's grade for thinking Pelosi's job title is "House Majority Leader": any ideas?
--Josh Marshall
One Too Many DeMint Juleps?
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC): GOP lost Pennsylvania because "forced unionization" caused Republicans to flee the Northeast for the safety and comfort of the southern motherland.
--David Kurtz
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius sworn in as HHS secretary last night just in time to tackle swine flu. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
The Continuing Mystery
Virtually every article about the swine flu notes epidemiologists' and public health experts' struggle to find out why the same virus seems so much more virulent in Mexico than it has been, at least to date, in other countries. Frustratingly, though, we never hear that they've made much progress in coming up with a clear answer -- though it's frequently suggested that the quality of the data coming out of Mexico is poor.
This article from the Journal suggests not a single answer but an overlapping series of factors explaining the difference. The suggested factors include pervasive under-reporting of infection (making the mortality rate appear higher), substandard health care and pervasive misdiagnosis in the early stages of the outbreak and even the high altitude and air pollution in Mexico City, which according to the article is normally responsible for a high rate of throat and chest infections. Of course, another possible factor is that it's gone on several weeks longer in Mexico. And the same virulence will become evident in other countries.
To be clear, these explanations aren't put forward as conclusive -- more along the lines of educated guesses or working hypotheses. Being far from any area of expertise and on a topic so weighty, I don't want to speculate more. But if you're interested in the topic, I recommend that you read the piece.
Late Update: The San Francisco Chronicle has another take on the question.
--Josh Marshall
You Know You Want To!
If you're on Facebook, please take a split second to become a 'fan' of TPM on Facebook.
--Josh Marshall
Go, Club, Go!
How much longer can the Democrats keep it a secret that the Club for Growth is a Dem-funded front group? Here's the Club's response to the Specter Switch ...
"Senator Specter has confirmed what we already knew - he's a liberal devoted to more spending, more bailouts, and less economic freedom. Thanks to him, Democrats will now be able to steamroll their big government agenda through the Senate."This also shows how unprincipled he is. Just a few weeks ago, he stated quite clearly that he was remaining a Republican because he thought he had 'a more important role to play there.' And he said 'the United States very desperately needs a two-party system.'
"This cynical play for political survival calls into question whether Pennsylvania taxpayers can believe anything Arlen Specter says. If his only principle is personal ambition, can he really be trusted with the serious issues that face our country?"
"The Club for Growth PAC enthusiastically endorsed Pat Toomey for Senate in Pennsylvania when Specter was pretending to be a Republican. Club members will be even more committed to Toomey's candidacy now that Specter has revealed his true identity."
--Josh Marshall
Another Take
From TPM Reader JK ...
Your reader MF, while hitting my liberal sensitivities, is entirely off the mark. Specter only became a Republican in order to get through the political machinery of the Philadelphia Democratic Party. He circumvented that by registering as a Republican and even then was pretty moderate. His constant allusions to Reagan are meaningless: who DIDN'T vote for Ronald Reagan?Specter is pro-choice. He's pro-gay rights. He's for unions, regardless of his recent right turn on card check when he was still thinking he had a shot against Toomey. He's supportive of President Obama's stimulus proposal. He's in favor of science, against creationism, in favor of stem cell research, and I'll damn well bet he's in favor of universal healthcare. Regardless of his recent rightist sensibilities (newfound and soon to be scrapped now that he no longer has to appease the crazies), he'll soon be back to where he always was: a Democrat.
Frankly, I never understood why he stayed in the party. Call him stubborn.
--Josh Marshall
Enjoying It
TPM Reader DW:
We may not get one good vote out of Arlen we weren't gonna get anyway, but today has already been worth it to watch GOP commentators take on that hunched over bitter snarl they all have now.
--David Kurtz
Makes Up for the Gaffes
When it comes to engineering Arlen Specter's switch, all roads run through Joe Biden.
--David Kurtz
I Don't Know Much About History
Michele Bachmann: Swine flu the fault of Democratic Presidents since last outbreak happened when Ford was in office.
--David Kurtz
How The Mighty Have Fallen
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who heads up the NRSC, has a modest goal for 2010: help the GOP "regain our status as a national party."
--David Kurtz
Not Everyone On Board
TPM Reader MF checks in ...
Listening to the press conference today, it became clear that Specter's reputation as a feckless equivocator and a political opportunist is well-earned. Did you notice how, when he was talking about the circuit court judges, he used the term "we"? As in, the Republican Party. He CLEARLY still considers himself a Republican. Specter's phony "defection" is meaningless. If he votes with the Democrats 10% of the time, I'll be mighty surprised. In fact, I'll be mighty surprised if he hasn't switched back to the Republican Party immeadiately following the election. This is an all-in gambit. Last-ditch, go for broke. Specter is still a Republican.The Democrats need to run someone against him in the primary. And hope to hell Specter loses.
--Josh Marshall
Classic Michael Steele
Steele on Cutting Pandemic Flu Funding: How Were Supposed to Know This Would Happen?
--Josh Marshall
Can't Deny It
Whatever else you can say about Specter today, this press conference is pretty entertaining and refreshingly candid. He just said he saw his internal poll numbers on Friday, jumped on Tuesday.
I can believe that.
--Josh Marshall
Miraculous Compromise
TPM Reader FB may be on to something ...
I think what you are going to see is that Specter will have very strong motivation to organize the EFCA "compromise" which involves some "protection" of the sanctity of the secret ballot but gives labor about 80% of what it wants. It is kind of the inverse of Lieberman organizing "compromises" that gave Republicans 80% of what they wanted. If Specter doesn't do that, labor will support a democratic primary opponent who could pull a Ned Lamont type surprise.
To add to the mix here, we're just now listening to Sen. Specter's press conference and he appeared to say that he would not vote for cloture for EFCA, which would really put him at serious loggerheads with a big part of the Democratic coalition in his state. Don't that interpretation as definitive. We're pulling the tape to make sure we have the working exactly right. But that seemed to be where he was pointing. If that's where he's planting his flag, he may find such a 'compromise' necessary.
--Josh Marshall
Oy ...
Joe Lieberman 'welcomes' Specter to the Democratic caucus ...
"I enthusiastically welcome my good friend Arlen Specter into the Democratic caucus. It will be very good to have the company of yet another independent minded Democrat in the caucus!
"I have always admired Arlen as a man of deep principle who has been a bridge builder to get things done in the Senate. Arlen understands that we get things accomplished when we listen to the vital center of American politics. I know that Arlen will continue to make a major contribution to the Senate and the nation as an effective independent leader and problem solver."
--Josh Marshall
Stern on Specter
Just out from SEIU's Andy Stern ...
It's clear to us that the right-wing conservatives in control of the leadership of the Republican party in Pennsylvania left Senator Specter long ago and we are pleased that he has decided to do the same. Just as he did with his leadership on the economic stimulus bill, Senator Specter has once again demonstrated the political courage it takes to put the interests of the working families of Pennsylvania ahead of partisanship. We have always had tremendous common ground with Senator Specter on issues important to working families including the need for reform to our nation's labor laws. We look forward to continuing our long history of working with Senator Specter to create positive change for the working families of Pennsylvania.
Late Update: Here's the post at the SEIU blog.
--Josh Marshall
Deep Thought
Democrats' long-standing admiration of Arlen Specter rising by the minute.
--Josh Marshall
Specter and EFCA
Grover Norquist tells the Washington Independent that it's not all bad news: Specter had already come out against EFCA (i.e., "card check") and in his statement this morning he reaffirms his opposition.
It's easy to have a laugh at Grover's expense, sort of whistling past the grave. But he's not all wrong. In retrospect, securing Specter's opposition to EFCA was a much bigger coup than it seemed at the time. In his heart of hearts, since he supported EFCA in the previous Congress, I'm pretty confident Specter wishes he hadn't made that promise. But switching now would just seem too craven (it's one thing to flip-flop but to flip-flop and then flip again ...) even on this day which -- as cool as it is for Dems -- certainly has a decent cravenness quotient.
The real issue I suspect will be cloture. Labor support in Pennsylvania has always been critical for Specter. And this won't go down well at all. But his wiggle room will be cloture. If he will vote for cloture and let EFCA come to a straight majority vote, I suspect labor supporters will hold their nose and throw in their grudging support.
Of course, you also have to figure into the mix that, unfortunately, since Specter's announcement earlier in the spring, a number of Dems have come out signaling that they're at least not inclined to support EFCA this year.
--Josh Marshall
Why Specter Had No Choice
Eric Kleefeld explains the choice Specter faced and why he really had no choice.
--Josh Marshall
Some Questions to Be Answered
1. Presumably, the way will be cleared for Specter in the Democratic primary. But how thoroughly and quickly. And will there still be a Democratic challenger in the primary, even if the party establishment wants to clear the way.
2. What if anything was promised to Specter to make the switch? I suspect he didn't need to be promised that much, because he could see he couldn't make it through the Republican primary. But what happens with his seniority in the Senate, stuff like that?
--Josh Marshall
Why?
TPM polling and politics guru Eric Kleefeld is at work on our 'Why Arlen Switched' piece, which we'll have up shortly. The basic issue of Specter's tough primary fight is pretty clear. But Eric points out a key but less noticed point -- the follow-on effects of last year's Democratic primary and Obama's candidacy. Democratic registrations swelled in Pennsylvania last year at the expense of Republicans. A lot of that was moderate Republicans who wanted to vote for Obama in the primary or the general. Or for that matter, moderate Republicans who wanted to vote for Hillary. Whatever your interpretation of why they were switching, that left the Republican primary electorate much more conservative than it was in the past, certainly much more than it was when he ran against Toomey the first time in 2004. And Pennsylvania has closed primaries.
In addition to the very daunting poll numbers, this had to figure strongly in Specter's calculus.
We'll have more shortly.
Late Update: Needless to say, this is quite a coup for the GOP, likely engineered by Michael Steele as a way to smoke out enemies.
--Josh Marshall
Specter Switching Parties
I'll put this squarely in the 'I'll believe it when I see it' category. But Human Events and TNR both have alerts
Holy crap! Specter's switching to the Democratic party.
Late Update: Articles with short shelf lives ... The Hill: Specter courts conservatives in Pa. rematch
--Josh Marshall
The Long View
A couple of smart pieces this morning on the swine flu outbreak: The first is a NYT op-ed by John Barry, whose definitive and eminently readable account of the 1918 pandemic was published in 2004. He traces the arc these new influenza viruses seem to take based on our experience with past outbreaks. The second is a provocative, forward-leaning column by Mike Davis in The Guardian that points the finger at industrial meat production as, if not the source of this particular strain of flu, a fertile petri dish for future swine flu recombinations.
--David Kurtz
TPMDC Morning Roundup
None too soon: Kathleen Sebelius is expected to be confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services in a Senate vote this afternoon. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
One of the Stories You Need the Times For
Bizarre, novelistic, the mystery behind the killing of three alleged would-be assassins of Bolivian President Evo Morales.
--Josh Marshall
The Weakest Link
One fact that has emerged clearly in reporting over the last thirty-six hours is how many critical gaps there are in our knowledge of just what's happening down in Mexico -- where the outbreak began, how it spread, how many people have actually been infected, and so forth. This story from the AP goes through some of the key points, including the fact that many of the families of the dead still haven't been visited by public health officials -- a key step both for investigating the origins of the outbreak and arresting its spread.
On one level it's very unsettling because you see how little we know and how haphazard the response has been. More broadly, though, it's a reminder that the most highly developed countries are not islands. We're vulnerable to the weakest links in the public health preparedness web that spreads around the globe.
Late Update: This article in the WSJ explains why some of these links are so weak.
--Josh Marshall
White House Responds
Just out from the White House on the flyover ...
Statement from Louis Caldera, Director White House Military Office, on Air Force One flight over New York"Last week, I approved a mission over New York. I take responsibility for that decision. While federal authorities took the proper steps to notify state and local authorities in New York and New Jersey, it's clear that the mission created confusion and disruption. I apologize and take responsibility for any distress that flight caused."
--Josh Marshall
On That Flyover Idea
TPM Reader AN checks in ...
I actually work on a very high floor in 1 Liberty Plaza. The window to my back overlooks the WTC site and the Hudson river. This morning as I was working a co-worker came by my desk and started staring out the window. At first I had no idea what he was staring at so he pointed to the plane. By that time it was far away enough and when he told me that it was pretty low and close to the buildings in lower Manhattan I thought he might just be overreacting a little until the plane did its second (of what I think was 3) fly over. My co-worker said that he was pretty sure that it was Air Force One based on the colors but I didn't think anyone at the White House would be so completely brain dead to allow that to happen.Whoever thought this was a good idea is a total idiot. Whoever thought it was a good idea to do this without mentioning anything about it to the public is a bigger idiot. If I'd gotten a memo the week before informing me this was going to take place I probably would have watched and thought 'hey that's pretty cool.' Instead I watched and thought 'I hope that plane doesn't crash into my building.' Followed by the thought 'I hope that plane doesn't hit one of the buildings in Jersey City' followed by 'If this isn't terrorism related why is that plane flanked by a fighter jet?'
And lets not even start with what the guys working at the WTC site must have been thinking.
--Josh Marshall
Better Safe Than Sorry
TPM Reader CW (no, not that CW -- a real person):
The swine flu saga is still in its infancy, but it's reasonable based on past events to assume two things: 1) the eventual impact will be far less severe than you would think watching the news, and 2) there will be a wave of amateur and professional criticism of the media's (and possibly governments') supposed overreaction. Last time this happened, I was one of those people.But, again assuming that those things prove true, that's not what I'm going to take away from all this. I'm going to be pretty damn impressed. The first news reports of abnormal influenza patterns came on April 5, from remote towns in central Mexico. "Swine flu" entered our lexicon on April 21, when a CDC alert reported two cases in California. On April 23 it was confirmed that this new strain was responsible for the outbreak in Mexico.
Four days later, a massive global awareness and preparedness effort, developed largely as a result of previous threats like SARS and bird flu, has kicked into high gear. Less than a week after the first reports of a possible pandemic, the entire developed world is aware of the situation. So, can we turn on cable news without listening to Norah O'Donnell remind us to wash our hands every ten minutes? No. But that's exactly what should be happening.
--David Kurtz
Maybe Not Such a Hot Idea
There was a bit of a scare this morning in lower Manhattan, when a 747 was seen flying low over the tip of the island with a fighter jet following nearby. It turns out it was a DOD photo op, taking one of the jets used for Air Force One and having some low-flying shots near like the Statue of Liberty. Apparently, all the key agencies like FAA were notified. Local authorities were apparently notified but with instructions not to pass the information on the general public.
--Josh Marshall
Torture and Cowardice, Pt.2
In response to my earlier post on torture, a number of readers have written in to say that it's not a matter of Cheney et al. being squeamish about using the word 'torture'. It's that there are specific statutes on the books in the US and internationally that make 'torture' a crime, with serious penalties. Everyone recognizes that; and they don't want to be prosecuted. But I think my earlier point includes this reasoning behind the reluctance to identify torture as 'torture'.
Being bold means taking responsibility for being bold. As I've argued before, I think the answer to the ticking time bomb rationale for torture is this: that in the extremely unlikely circumstance that government officials ever found themselves in that position of having a ticking time bomb ticking away, they might have to make the decision to break the law. Not fudge it or keep their actions hidden, but take the decision on their own responsibility that it was the best thing to do in the situation -- despite it being wrong as a general matter -- and then bring their decision to attention of the people and law enforcement authorities and throw themselves on the mercy of the public. Thomas Jefferson explored a similar question and argument for the position a president could find himself in when faced with extra-constitutional or even unconstitutional actions.
In any case, if your patriotism is such that in an extreme situation you'd risk your own liberty to defend the lives of Americans, that's courage. But nothing else really cuts it.
More realistically, if these folks are really that tough, why not simply come and call for the repeal of American laws banning torture and the US withdrawal from international agreements doing the same?
--Josh Marshall
Torture and Cowardice
It looks like swine flu may be pushing the torture controversy from the headlines. But before it gets put to the back burner, there was one point I wanted to touch on, which strikes me as one of the oddest aspects of the debate. There's a 'tough enough to make the tough calls' conceit behind almost all the pro-torture advocacy. Put in Dick Cheney terms, the courage to go to the dark side. But this conceit seems wholly belied by the unwillingness of the torture advocates to actually call it 'torture', as opposed to the various euphemisms about 'harsh' or 'enhanced' interrogation methods?
In conversations I've had with people who say torture was either necessary or useful, my instinctive response has been to say that I'm not even willing to entertain the conversation unless they're willing to at least call something like water-boarding torture. (Long before we got into the torture business, it was always my understanding of 'torture' that it was precisely actions that created much more suffering than permanent damage. After knee-capping or breaking legs is less torture than just beatings.) It's sort of the minimum price of admission to any real debate.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Oh, boy. That June 10 deadline to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraqi cities? Well, we're going to fudge it in Baghdad by declaring our bases are technically not in the city limits. Presto! That and the day's other non-flu news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
TPMtv: Sunday Show Roundup: The Prosecution Road
Is the decision to release Bush administration terrorist interrogation memos and potentially prosecute those responsible for drafting them simply reading the page before we turn it or turning America into a banana republic? We look for the answer in today's Sunday Show Roundup ...
Full-size video at TPMtv.com.
--Ben Craw
A Big Story for Monday
The Times' Jo Becker and Gretchen Morgenson debut a lengthy and much anticipated profile of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
--Josh Marshall
Round Two
Jeff Stein at CQ brings us more on the story of the Harman's wiretapped conversation ...
Former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert says he learned from a CIA-connected "whistleblower" in 2006 that Bush administration officials were suppressing the existence of a wiretapped conversation between Rep. Jane Harman and a suspected Israeli agent.John D. Negroponte, former head of the then newly established Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), had blocked then CIA Director Porter J. Goss from briefing Hastert, according to the account the whistleblower gave the former Republican House speaker.
Gen. Michael V. Hayden , who became CIA director upon Goss's forced resignation in May 2006, also had not informed Hastert about the wiretap, according to what the whistleblower told Hastert's aides.
--Josh Marshall
Swine Flu Update
The federal government has declared what DHS Secretary Napolitano urges Americans to view as a "declaration of emergency preparedness", which allows the government to move doses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu to parts of the country with potential swine flu outbreaks, release monies and take other preparedness steps.
A continuing mystery is why the apparent swine flu infections in the US appear to be much less virulent than the one in Mexico.
Late Update: Let me take a moment to reemphasize the 'appear' and 'apparent' in the sentence above. There are various hypotheses as to why there might be such a difference, as this Times article explains. But it's important to note that whatever spread there is of swine flu in the US seems much earlier along than in Mexico. And the sample size of cases in the US is exceedingly small. So we simply do not have enough data yet to judge what the difference in the virulence in the two countries is or whether there's any difference at all. I strongly recommend reading the Times article linked above.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Sunday Roundup
A new poll finds the American public closely divided on torture, with a narrow majority in favor of investigations. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Sunday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
