Fade
Earlier in this decade, in the heat of the debate over gay marriage in Massachusetts, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) predicted that once marriages actually started happening, opponents would realize it just wasn't that big a deal (a very big deal of course to those getting married, but not a big deal in terms of the sky falling down or Western Civilization coming to an end) and it would simply fade away as a political issue. And five years on, that's what seems to be happening.
--Josh Marshall
Trekker Under Cover at Slate?
In what seem to be the very good reviews for the new Star Trek movie, there's been discussion of a scene that perhaps alludes to our current public discussion of torture. Juliet Lapidos has a nice piece up at Slate on an episode for Star Trek TNG that focused on the power, degradation and ineffectiveness of the practice.
(It's a good episode; have to crack out that DVD.)
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Saturday Roundup
President Obama will be among Washington society tonight, for the White House Correspondents' Dinner. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Saturday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Blast from the Past
We dug up this 1986 CBS News report on the court nomination of now-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL). The piece ran just after the Judiciary Committee rejected his nomination.
--Josh Marshall
Some Things Never Fail to Surprise
Can it really be true that the list of Americans who will appear on the Sunday shows this weekend is David Petraeus, Dick Cheney, Newt Gingrich and John McCain?
I guess it really is a center-right nation.
--Josh Marshall
Citibank's New Gambit
Going to war against Obama's money-saving student loan reform plan.
--Josh Marshall
Easy Money
Are AIGers giving generous terms to counter-party banks in exchange for cushy jobs to come?
--Josh Marshall
Rep. Holt on DADT
Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) on the latest developments (or lack thereof) in the effort to repeal the military's 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' policy.
--Josh Marshall
Sticking to Her Guns
Nancy Pelosi reaffirms that she only received one briefing, in 2002, on "enhanced interrogation techniques" -- and asserts that the CIA itself isn't standing behind the accuracy of its own documents that on their face seem to contradict her.
--David Kurtz
Home Grown
Over at TPMmuckraker we've been digging into these public pension investment scandals in which an overlapping group of players have been scamming (or perhaps better to say, skimming) money out of public pension plans in several states. So we got curious why something very similar seemed to be going on in Illinois but with a very distinct group of villains. The upshot seems to be that Chicago and Illinois had enough native grown corruption just not to need any help from outside -- or to let outsiders take their cut.
--Josh Marshall
In Case You Missed It
Last night Rachel Maddow interviewed one of the military Arabic language translators who was booted out of Army after publicly saying he's gay.
--Josh Marshall
All Down to Obama
Is a breach between the Obama and Netanyahu governments on the horizon? I asked this question to a senior Israeli government official recently and was told -- not that convincingly, I thought -- that it wasn't in the cards because the two governments don't fundamentally disagree on the big questions. But MJ Rosenberg comes at the question from a different angle -- pointing out that the US government virtually always gets what it wants when a popular US president puts down his foot. This is an important read -- and really shows that it comes down to what Obama wants and what he'll demand.
--Josh Marshall
Let's Not Fool Ourselves
There's a lively debate today about which if any Democrats knew about various torture practices on a relatively contemporaneous basis. And we're going to have reporting today from TPMmuckraker about what certain documents do or don't mean. Speaking for myself though I'd be very surprised if the key Democrats at the time weren't briefed on a lot of this stuff. And to the extent that they didn't know the details, that it might have been not wanting to know rather than having been kept in the dark.
If it turns out that the Democrats in leadership were really kept wholly in the dark about this stuff, that'd be nice to know, I guess. I'd like to think they're not compromised. But expecting or hoping for that strikes me as a recipe for disappointment and eventual special pleading in their defense.
To me, though, this is precisely why we need some version of a Truth Commission, probably one that at least on first blush is not about assigning blame or recommending punishment but simply finding out, in as disinterested a manner as possible, just what happened and who knew and okayed it.
I just think we're fooling ourselves if we don't see that many, many people -- even a lot of the "good guys" were and are compromised by what happened.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Cheney: Stay radical, Republicans, stay radical. That and that day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Our Book of the Week
This week at TPMCafe Book Club Michelle Goldberg is discussing her new book The Means of Reproduction: Sex, Power and the Future of the World. Joining her in the discussion are Katha Pollitt, Helen Epstein, Deepali Gaur Singh, Gloria Feldt and Lauren Berlant.
--Josh Marshall
Tanked
Yes, I knew that having both Pennsylvania senators be Democrats was a big deal. But I did not realize that it had only happened one other time since the Civil War. According to CNN, it was between 1945 and 1947.
--Josh Marshall
Cold Water on the Sestak Boomlet
From an anon longtime TPM Reader ...
There's some sort of weird, collective spate of wishful thinking/lunacy going on. Sestak will not be running for the Senate in 2010.Some background. I'm a constituent of Sestak's, and grew up in the district. I've given him some money, and have worked with him on a few occasions. He's an incredibly smart guy, a good Democrat, very ambitious, and a real asset to the district, the Democratic party and the nation. He certainly is more in tune with the national party than is Specter.
First, Sestak's claim that he somehow took on the entrenched powers when he ran in 2006 is ridiculous. There was a Democratic candidate already in the race, Bryan Lentz. Lentz, unlike Sestak, actually lived in the district. He had been in the Army Reserves in Iraq. When Sestak left the Navy and started talking about moving back to the area and running for the House, the local Democratic party pushed Lentz out of the race. This was the correct decision; as a former admiral, Sestak had instant credibility and got huge press.Lentz made some noises about staying in, but in the end saw the handwriting on the wall and ran for the state House and won. So for Sestak to complain now that the party is pushing him out is a bit rich.
Also, Sestak had Bill Clinton behind him, from his time working at the White House. This was a huge plus in terms of both fundraising and name recognition; Clinton did at least one fundraiser in the area for Sestak. Not too many insurgents have a former president behind them.
Second, Obama doesn't owe Sestak much. Sestak backed Hillary, presumably because he owed a lot to the Clintons. Nothing wrong with that. The district ended up going for Obama.
Finally, how is going Sestak going to beat Specter in the Democratic primary? Let me give you four names: Obama, Biden, Rendell, Casey. They've all put themselves on the line for Specter. There's no way they're going to let Specter lose. They'll shut off the money for Sestak, and Joe can't count on the Clinton connection for fundraising help this time. Plus Specter is very well known statewide, and Sestak isn't.
Finally, think about about this from the national party's point of view. They would love to get Snowe and/or Collins to switch over. A big Democratic win in 2010 makes that more likely. But not if they see Specter going down to defeat in a Democratic primary.
Sestak is a very smart, very ambitious guy. But he has absolutely no chance. I'm sure he feels that he got ripped off by Specter's move, and he has a point. But there's nothing to do about it now except be the good soldier (sailor?). Maybe he gets a shot if Specter dies or retires in a few years, although that assumes there's a Democratic governor in Pennsylvania after Rendell. Maybe he gets a cabinet spot down the line. Heck, he'd look great on a national ticket at some point--I thought he was a good dark horse VP choice.
Also, there's no guarantee his seat stays Democratic if he leaves the House to run for the Senate.
--Josh Marshall
Do Tell ...
Stephen Friedman steps down "abruptly" as NY Fed chair.
Eliot Spitzer discussed some of the potential conflicts for Friedman just yesterday in Slate.
--Josh Marshall
Some Lines Just Can't Be Crossed
According to testimony at his failed 1986 confirmation hearing, during a Klan prosecution during the time he was US Attorney in Alabama, now-Senator Jeff Sessions had an interesting view on just when the KKK went too far.
Sessions told colleagues that he "'used to think they [the Klan] were OK' until he found out some of them were 'pot smokers.'"
--Josh Marshall
Run for Your Lives!
All else having failed to score decisive political points against Obama, the GOP is going back to the tried and true scare tactics that will be the historical hallmark of U.S. politics in the 2000s. And, yes, 9/11 is the cudgel once again.
Today, the House GOP leadership unveiled its "Keep Terrorists Out Of America Act" (clever, right?) to try to prevent the closing of Gitmo by barring the moving of detainees to facilities on the U.S. mainland. We've put together some of the highlights from their press conference this morning.
If that's not enough to drive home that we should be very, very afraid, Minority Leader John Boehner sent out an email alert, complete with red Drudge-like siren, titled "Do You Want These Dangerous Terrorists In Your Community?" with a Most Wanted-style list of the worst of the worst of the worst held at Gitmo.
--David Kurtz
Santelli Needs Soothing Herbal Tea
A particularly bombastic appearance this morning by CNBC faux populist Rick Santelli (via Teablogging.net). I can't tell if the admonition to "get a better education and make more money!" is directed at poor people, the uninsured, or ... well, I'll leave to your judgment. Watch (starts at about 3:00 mark).
--David Kurtz
There's a Record
We've gone over the particulars of the EFCA/"Card Check" debate pretty extensively here. And the debate has been flooded with hypotheticals about all manner of potential abuses. But Nathan Newman points out that there's are a number of states with similar laws already in place -- and very little evidence of any abuse at all. This of course stands in contrast to the basically uncontested evidence of massive abuse by employers under the current system.
--Josh Marshall
Start the Stop Watch
House conservative Patrick McHenry (R-NC) says tax cuts are old news and Republicans need to admit the Reagan era is over.
Curious how long it'll take till Limbaugh stomps him into an apology.
--Josh Marshall
Pressure Back on Arlen
I was pretty skeptical about those numbers showing Tom Ridge crushing Pat Toomey in the PA Republican senate primary. Not that I thought the numbers were wrong, per se, more that I was skeptical they'd hold up over time, as Toomey and his allies went to work on Ridge over the next year and a half. But with Ridge out, I have to assume that means Toomey's almost guaranteed the nomination. I'd heard talk about Gerlach getting in. But I doubt it. And if it's Toomey, that means that any half way reasonable Democrat is a strong favorite. Which means the pressure going to remain on Arlen Specter to at least make some pretense of being a Democrat.
--Josh Marshall
Everyone Should Read
The grizzled yet spry Walter Pincus with an unpopular view (among his colleagues) on why newspapers are failing -- amidst other pearls of Pincus wisdom.
--David Kurtz
Ain't Happenin'
Ridge passes on running for Senate. Which, unless I'm missing something, means it's almost certainly going to be Toomey.
--Josh Marshall
Not As Brave As We Used To Be
Number of Gitmo detainees that the GOP hopes to keep off mainland U.S. soil with its "Keep Terrorists Out Of America Act": roughly 250.
Number of Axis POWs detained in camps on the U.S. mainland at the end of WWII: roughly 425,000.
--David Kurtz
Sessions Open to "Gay Tendencies"
A few news sites have picked up the fact that the Republicans' new back-to-the-future Judiciary Committee chief, Sen. Jeff Sessions said he could see voting to confirm a gay Supreme Court Justice. But the actual quote is so much better and more revealing. If you watch the video, Sessions actually says he'd consider voting for a nominee "with gay tendencies." That's sort of one step up from saying, as Austin Powers Dr. Evil once put it, a 'penchant for buggery' or perhaps just a 'swisher'.
See the video here.
--Josh Marshall
First They Came for Arlen, Now Joe
Not to be outdone in an effort to eke out a few more minutes in the spotlight, Joe The Plumber announces he too has had enough and is leaving the Republican party.
Of course, in Joe's case, it does raise the question of what party or militia he's leaving the GOP to join. Any ideas?
--Josh Marshall
Still Not Getting It
GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway, on Obama possibly nominating a woman to replace David Souter:
Can you imagine any of Obama's nominees being treated the way that Sarah Palin and her family were treated by the media? It's "interesting," as they say in Washington. Gender and class ended up being a huge obstacle for one person, and they're likely to be a huge boost to this person that Barack Obama selects.
--David Kurtz
Summer Blockbuster
Anticipate Karl Rove's long-awaited testimony before Congress about the US Attorney firings sometime in early June, Rove's lawyer tells TPMmuckraker.
--David Kurtz
Numbers Do Lie
Charlie Rose interviewed Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner last night in advance of the bank stress test results being released (watch here). The takeaway is that there was an intensely negotiated, political process between banks and regulators over what the results should be. Geithner says we will find the results "reassuring" and falls back on the old chestnut that if no one is happy they must have done something right:
"You're going to hear criticism from both sides in this," Geithner said. "A lot of people will say these were unfairly tough. ... And there will be other people to say ... that losses could be worse. And they may be right."
They may be right?
--David Kurtz
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Climate change legislation or health care reform? Centrist Dems in the House are telling Nancy Pelosi she has to choose -- and that health care should be the priority. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
"There's Fire There"
As you know, there's been this long-simmering question of whether federal officials forced BofA CEO Ken Lewis to complete the purchase of Merrill Lynch even after the company's mounting losses made it clear it wasn't a good deal on the business merits. Ben Bernanke testified earlier this week that there was no effort to do anything untoward, and that all the relevant federal regulators were on hand during the key meetings. But the House Oversight Committee has been reviewing notes of phone conversations and other government records. And a person familiar with the probe tells the Journal "there's fire there." They're apparently going to call everyone back up to the Hill next month to testify on the matter under oath.
--Josh Marshall
Dept. Of Regrettable Analogies
From the Times ...
Mr. Zardari's presentation, however, left some members confused and disappointed, according to a person who attended the meeting. He said little about how the Pakistani government planned to regain momentum in the fight against the militants. And when he asked for financial assistance, he likened it to the government's bailout of the troubled insurance giant, American International Group.
--Josh Marshall
Where Are They Now?
The Donald Rumsfeld allies who had been using that Pentagon inspector general's report as ammunition against David Barstow's Pulitzer Prize-winning piece for the New York Times about military TV pundits are now curiously silent after the IG report was withdrawn yesterday because numerous factual errors undermined its conclusions.
Late Update: A response ... of sorts.
--David Kurtz
Sotto Voce
This whole whisper campaign against Supreme Court prospect Sonia Sotomayer has been very strange. It hadn't really been on my radar until I was channel-surfing last night and stumbled across a sketch on Letterman's show portraying her as the stereotypical hot-blooded Latina. Since when do prospective Supreme Court nominees get this kind of treatment before being nominated? So Brian Beutler took a look for us and finds a whisper campaign that so far is marked by a paucity of on-the-record sources and very little concrete evidence of her alleged poor judicial temperament. Makes you wonder who has the knives out for her and why.
--David Kurtz
Brooklyn Bridge Watch
Harry Reid tells Andrea Mitchell: Arlen will be with us when we need him!
--Josh Marshall
Pretty Pictures
Our 'March of Marriage Equality' slide show has now been updated with today's developments in Maine.
--Josh Marshall
Maine
One key point is worth making about Maine's decision to make full marriage equality the law in their state. As far as I know, this is the first state to make gay marriage legal without any court case triggering the legislation. As far as I know, in each of the other states, either directly or indirectly, it was a court decision that got the ball rolling.
--Josh Marshall
"Jerkhoff" Targets Hedgefunders
After claiming that President Obama had played hardball with them in the Chrysler bankruptcy negotiations, a group of hedge funds asked a judge to keep their identities anonymous because their safety was endangered by "jerkhoff" and other anonymous commenters on the WaPo website.
--Josh Marshall
All Good for Me!
Arlen Specter says he's cool with losing his senate seniority for the remainder of this Congress. I'm curious though whether that was really the deal Specter had or thought he had. In next year's election, one of Specter's biggest sells will be the clout his senate seniority brings him. If he has no assurance he's going to have that, that will be a major liability for him. It certainly sounds to me like the Dems put him on a fairly effective form of probation.
--Josh Marshall
Eyes and Ears
Anyone out there been at any of Eric Cantor's 'Help Us Find a Message' Listening Tour events?
--Josh Marshall
Steele's Ingenious Plan Unfolds
Michael Steele deviously lures enemies into taking away most of his power.
Next Big Question: Now that he's lost control of the RNC's budget, will Steele at least get a weekly allowance?
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Who's leading Obama's Supreme Court nominee vetting team? That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Bizarro Vindication
From the Times ...
In a highly unusual reversal, the Defense Department's inspector general's office has withdrawn a report it issued in January exonerating a Pentagon public relations program that made extensive use of retired officers who worked as military analysts for television and radio networks.Donald M. Horstman, the Pentagon's deputy inspector general for policy and oversight, said in a memorandum released on Tuesday that the report was so riddled with flaws and inaccuracies that none of its conclusions could be relied upon. In addition to repudiating its own report, the inspector general's office took the additional step of removing the report from its Web site.
--Josh Marshall
Politico on Obama's 'Class Warfare'
Politico: Wealthy voters who voted for Obama may abandon him for making the tax changes he campaigned on.
--Josh Marshall
Wheels Coming Off?
So was Specter somehow joking when he said he still supports Norm Coleman? A few asked. And we were curious. So Eric Kleefeld asked interviewer Deborah Solomon. And she was sure Specter meant it.
But just as Eric and I were doing the edit we saw a new report that Specter was taking it back, saying he'd misspoken -- or to put it in his words, which really defy elaboration: "I have to get used to my new teammates."
The really weird thing is that you'd figure one of the biggest benefits of leaving the GOP would be not having to pretend to like Norm Coleman anymore. So the whole thing's sort of weird, right?
--Josh Marshall
Casting Director for a Day
TPM Readers bring their finely honed skills to casting the key roles in the upcoming Jack Abramoff biopic.
--Josh Marshall
Testing His Limits
From TPM Reader TF ...
Specter is testing his limits, just like a little kid. But one of two things will happen; he will either swing more into line (with his political tone-deafness, probably inelegantly) or he will push too far, which will allow Obama to be released from any deal. (Reid, not so much--if Reid can stand up to an aggressive ant, I would be surprised.)If Specter pushes too far, Sestak comes out fighting. (I guess that is already happening.) If we see the Sestak of 2006, Specter is in trouble. People keep forgetting that years like 2006 are made up of a bunch of individual campaigns and Sestak took on Crazy Curt Weldon in a brilliant campaign. His "Veterans" commercial was one of the best campaign commercials. Ever.
While I'm pontificating here, our Senior Senator is the one who yielded to Sessions for Judiciary. What I haven't seen anyone point out is that the Republicans are organizing opposition to Obama's nominee before he even picked one. I don't recall the Democrats doing that--and it will undermine their opposition no matter who is picked.
Actually, sounds like my two and a half year old son. Maybe he's precocious.
--Josh Marshall
Tongue in Cheek?
The NYT Magazine has now published the interview with Arlen Specter in which he says he wants Norm Coleman to win -- but seeing the answer Specter gave in context, I want to leave open the possibility that Specter was joking. A bad joke, poorly delivered, but maybe a joke.
The interview is one of those Deborah Solomon Q&As, which are "condensed and edited":
With your departure from the Republican Party, there are no more Jewish Republicans in the Senate. Do you care about that?I sure do. There's still time for the Minnesota courts to do justice and declare Norm Coleman the winner.
Which seems about as likely at this point as Jerry Seinfeld's joining the Senate.
Well, it was about as likely as my becoming a Democrat.
I don't want to let Specter off the hook, but that doesn't seem quite as clear cut read in context as initial reports of the leaked interview suggested. In any event, Specter did support Coleman's re-election, of course, and joined the GOP conference in demanding that Franken not be seated until the legal process was complete.
We have a request in to Specter's office for comment.
--David Kurtz
Laying Down the Law
Reid spokesman on Specter continuing to support Coleman: "On that one we are just going to have to disagree."
NRSC spokesman adds bonus snark: "We've never agreed so much with Arlen Specter."
--Josh Marshall
Old Dog Struggles With New Tricks
Specter still rooting for a Norm Coleman victory in Minnesota.
--David Kurtz
Holy Cow
A new GOP poll shows Tom Ridge crushing Toomey in the GOP primary. More in a moment.
--Josh Marshall
Might Be A Problem
Seems Tom Ridge is a resident of Maryland.
They say Pennsylvania is Philly in the East, Pittsburgh in the West and Alabama in between. Not Maryland's part of the state though.
--Josh Marshall
Update Out of Maine
From TPM Reader-Legislator SB ...
I'm a state rep from Bangor, Maine, and I'm in the chamber of the state House of Representatives right now as we "debate" LD 1020, Maine's marriage equality bill, which was passed by the senate last week.I'm struck by how overwhelmingly the balance of representatives today have spoken in favor - on both sides. A Republican representative known for being a staunch conservative gave an exceptional and moving floor speech early on this morning in which he said he realized "this is not about me" and announced his support.
Yes, there's the feeling of being a part of history, and yes, there's the camaraderie of righteousness that comes from being on the right side of a pivotal issue - but the mood here very much feels like this movement is more inevitable than it was even a month ago.
It's a nice feeling.
Steve Butterfield
House district 16, Bangor, ME
And the bill has now passed the state House.
--Josh Marshall
Whatever it Takes?
TPM Reader AK takes a contrary view ...
Even if Specter has gotten off on the wrong foot with Dems, his defection in the first place shows that he's willing to do whatever it takes for political survival. He'll eventually do whatever is required to ingratiate himself to the party and to keep the blessings of Obama, Biden, Reid, etc.. That includes being on the right side of unions and health care. If he starts by playing ball with the coming supreme court nomination, Obama will send word from on high that Specter is not to be challenged.
This point does have a certain logical appeal. That said, if Specter actually decides to not just become a Democrat but actually be a Democrat, I suspect that for many the whole point of a primary challenge will have been adequately served. For my part, I've sensed a persistent too-clever-by-halfism from Specter over the last few days that I could see tripping him up.
--Josh Marshall
Not Happenin'
That's what TPM Reader GM says ...
The talk of the Tom Ridge candidacy here in Pa reminds me of the Fred Thompson love affair last year in the Republican primary. Republican leadership and moderates in the suburbs will push Ridge into the race even though he will probably end up much like Thompson: uninformed and unable to raise money. The local Republican committees will never allow their State Committee people endorse Ridge over Toomey so it is a great story but highly impractical. This is a moderate Republicans Wayne's World dream and we will ultimately wake up and realize we are still driving a Pinto and have a mullet.
There's some chatter about a soon-to-be-released poll alleging showing Ridge up over Toomey. But even if that's true, a lot could simply be name recognition. The other key issue is abortion. Ridge is pro-choice. And that's a heavy burden to carry into a radicalized GOP primary electorate. Next, what about what Ridge's been doing since he left the Bush administration. He basically set up up as a lobbyist. Might be some interesting digging to be done there.
Meanwhile Toomey's says he's raised $500,000 in the three weeks since he officially got in the race.
--Josh Marshall
Sestak Steps Out
TPMDC's Brian Beutler talked to Sestak yesterday evening. And he really raised the temperature on Specter. Take a look.
We're going to do our best to bring you interviews with what are shaping up as the key players in this -- the key union leaders, the candidates obviously, party committees and others.
On a related topic, we're getting a lot of good emails this morning in response to these posts asking for your input. And we've heard from a lot of Democratic party regulars down at the county level. And while I would not expect those folks to be bastions of Arlen support, folks who've done their own informal straw polls seem to put support for Specter around zero. So if he keeps bucking the party consensus position on stuff like EFCA and health care, it seems like there's a lot of dry kindling there for a tough challenge.
Late Update: Meanwhile, Greg Sargent notes that a series of polls cast real doubt on whether Specter is even a strong candidate against Ridge, should he be able to get past Toomey.
--Josh Marshall
The Ridge Card
TPM Reader BL checks in ...
One thing to add to your analysis. Before challenging Specter, Sestak should see if Tom Ridge is running as reported today in the Post. If Ridge Runs, Sestak should not challenge Specter. I do think he would have a good chance to beat Specter in a primary, but I doubt he could beat Ridge. It is a question as to whether Ridge would beat Toomey, but he probably would. Specter's name recognition and status with the center of the PA electorate would make him competitive with Ridge.
This really is the key question. And I'm very curious to hear from those who know more about Pennsylvania politics and right-wing politics to get their read on this. If Ridge is the Republican nominee that does change the calculus substantially. But can Ridge get the nomination?
If Pat Toomey were a character from the Iliad he'd carry the sobriquet 'Specterslayer'. And I think the issue for Republicans is that a non-trivial number of Toomey's supporters think he was a character in the Iliad. He's the darling of the right. Pennsylvania is a closed primary. And as we noted last week, Pennsylvania's primary electorate has gotten much more conservative in the last two years. After Toomey put in the work to get Specter to bolt, are registered Pennsylvania Republicans going to push him aside from the relatively moderate Ridge? And if they will, will Ridge have to move hard to the right to get the nomination, thus weakening himself in the general?
These aren't rhetorical questions. I'm curious to hear your views. I guess a lot of it depends on Toomey, whether he was serious about wanting to be in the senate or whether this was only about Specter. But speaking as an outsider, it just seems like national Republicans would have a difficult time prying this out of Toomey's hands.
Your thoughts?
--Josh Marshall
Norm Goes into the Hot Zone
Norm Coleman has a new prime advocate in his effort to keep challenging his reelection loss forever: Hans von Spakovsky, voting suppression guru and luminary from the US attorney firing scandal.
--Josh Marshall
Just Too Cocky
Last week Arlen Specter's election as a Democrat in 2010 seemed more or less a given. The big man in Pennsylvania politics (Ed Rendell) and the big man in US politics (Barack Obama) both put down their finger and said they were behind him.
But the certainty of that outcome now seems genuinely in doubt. He's got an ambitious (and there's nothing wrong with that) and aggressive potential opponent in Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA). And even more important than that he's got a critical constituency, organized labor, visibly warming to opposing him in next year's Democratic primary. (Remember a couple key points: Labor is a big deal in Pennsylvania and Specter's in the past always relied on strong labor backing.)
What's most striking about this whole turn of events though is that if Specter is in any real trouble it is a predicament entirely of his own making, an unforced error of almost galactic proportions.
As we've discussed a few times over the last week, there was some political logic to Specter not moving too quickly or fulsomely to embrace Democratic positions, especially since he'd spent the last few months tacking hard to the right. But what we've seen over the last week goes way, way beyond anything like that. He's dug in his heels opposing EFCA, said he'd oppose a key Obama DOJ appointee, staked out a surprisingly right-leaning (for him) position on health care reform and gone way past the first day bromides in signaling he won't have any partisan attachment at all to his new political party. His line about not being a 'loyal' Democrat, after he apparently said just the opposite to President Obama, seems like a high profile diss of the president.
All of which is fine of course. He's free to do whatever he wants. But he doesn't seem to have grasped that his position wasn't actually that strong. Republicans are certainly not taking Arlen back at this point. I haven't looked deeply into the numbers. But it's hard for me to see how the national GOP is going to knock Pat Toomey out of the running with some quasi-moderate ringer. If that's right, Toomey's the Republican nominee. Which would mean the Republicans are fielding an exceptional weak general election candidate.
So why do the Dems need Arlen, if probably any solid Democrat can beat Pat Toomey?
There's another angle here too. Labor is really licking its wounds over what appears to be the very steep climb EFCA faces in this Congress. And the Democratic establishment in Washington moved very quickly to crown Specter as the Democratic nominee. It would not surprise me if labor and affiliated organizations might not mind engaging in a amicable Specter-Sestak proxy battle with President Obama and the lords of the senate to make the point that as much as everything's great and everyone's pals, they've got their own independent bases of power and political muscle.
Before we get too far down this path let me grant you a lot of dominos have to fall into place before Specter finds himself out of a job. The Democratic senators and the president have giving their full backing and that means quite a lot. That and a lot else. But why and how exactly did Specter get himself into this position? After watching the last week I get the sense he's just too cocky for his own good.
--Josh Marshall
Throwback
Last night Rachel Maddow had some of the video of the failed 1986 confirmation hearing of then-judge wannabe Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III -- now Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) -- including his sorta kinda reluctant admission that he might have called the NAACP a "commie" organization (at the 1:40 mark).
--David Kurtz
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Arlen Specter reintroduces himself to Pennsylvania voters as a Democrat. That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
For the GOP, a Sobering Trend
I'm not sure this requires much commentary.
The pivot, where Obama's popularity begins to rise again, is right about April 1st.
--Josh Marshall
Onward and Upward with the VALIC!
AIG subsidiary rebrands itself 'VALIC'.
Late Update: TPM Reader FL responds: "Valic was Valic long before it was taken over by AIG. It was a reliable and honorable retirement fund serving non-profit employees and academicians."
--Josh Marshall
Next Great GOP Idea: Boot Charlie Crist
Charlie Crist's probable opponent if he runs for senate next year speaks out ...
"If you agree with Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat,'' said former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a Republican who is likely to run for the Senate, whether or not Crist does.
For my part, I would say that Rubio's on the right track. Crist really should be expelled from the Republican party.
--Josh Marshall
"We were trying to get the right to vote"
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), then a US Attorney down in Alabama, made his name as a race and voting rights troglodyte by prosecuting three African-American voting rights activists on trumped up charges of vote fraud. That was back in early 1980s. (He's was at it before it was cool, you might say.)
Brian Beutler just spoke to one of the two surviving defendants (who were speedily acquitted when the case actually went to trial) about what he thinks of Sessions' elevation to top Republican on the Judiciary Committee.
--Josh Marshall
Pollster Cage Match
GOP copycats fire back at Stan Greenberg: We are not partisan hacks!
--Josh Marshall
Accept No Substitute!
News is just out (we'll be bringing you more in a moment) how Ed Gillespie and others are starting a new outfit with the stated goal of becoming the Republicans version of Democracy Corps. Good for them. And good idea for them.
But it does seem to me that this is maybe the 10th or 15th story I've heard in the last month or so of Republicans founding their version of this or that Democratic or progressive success story. And it occurs to me that there must be a good comedy routine here for someone. (Republicans to launch new canny Southern governor with impulse control issues ...)
What other left-leaning success stories of recent years do you expect Republicans will soon be rolling out copies of?
--Josh Marshall
Even the Anti-Sestaks Want Sestak
From TPM Reader RF ...
I'd have to agree with the first responder. Sestak is my representative as well. I donated money and worked hard for him in 2006. In 2008 I did neither because on some issues important to me (the war and whether anyone in the white house should be punished for criminal actions) he was a big disappointment. He's very middle of the road on many things. However, if he opposed Specter for the nomination I'd donate and work for him again because he would be a *much* more reliable vote for so many important Democratic issues. There's just no contest.Arlen Specter thinks he's a middle of the road moderate because he says one thing and then votes the opposite and he believes that somehow balances things out.
--Josh Marshall
GOP Doubling Down On Southern Crypto-Segregationists
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) to become ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee (albeit as a placeholder until 2011 for Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA)).
Brian Beutler has more.
--David Kurtz
A Sestak Constituent Responds
A Sestak constituent responds to my post from last night ...
Sestak is my rep. Nate might be an electoral-poll god, but he is way off on this. He cites silly ratings in his piece that don't reflect reality. There is NO WAY Joe Sestak, had he been a Senator, votes for the Bush tax cuts, or Roberts, or Alito. Sestak voted for Obama's budget; has an excellent labor record, and is superior Democrat in every way to the principle-free Specter. I work in an office in Sestak's district that is 25-5 Democratic, and for years I've been pleading with people to take a hard look at Specter, whom they have consistently given a slide to as some sort of 'moderate.' Someone the other day said, "Yeah, he's a weasel, but he's OUR weasel.' And this person should know better. Very frustrating. Arlen self-preserves with this move, and the Old Boys Club applauds (Biden, Rendell, the execrable Reid, all the way up to Obama). 'Clear the primary field' my ass. I'd love if Sestak took Specter on and kicked his sorry ass.
I don't want this to become some knock on Nate Silver, whom I'm a huge fan of. But I think it's true that Sestak's record to date compared to Specter's, because of the different chambers they've served in, the particular district Sestak represents and how little time he's served, is kind of an apples to oranges comparison. And as I said in the post last night, my only angle on this is that I'd like to see Specter at least have to make his case to Democrats in his state.
--Josh Marshall
TPMtv: Sunday Show Roundup: The Ol' Switcheroo
Is Barack Obama speaking in Supreme Court code? Did Arlen Specter pledge loyalty to the party to become a Democrat? And what is the GOP really lacking, ideas or just cuteness? We find the answers to all these questions and more in today's Sunday Show Roundup ...
Full-size video at TPMtv.com.
--Ben Craw
TPMDC Morning Roundup
This should work well: The House GOP is bringing in three former Bush advisers -- Dana Perino, Tony Fratto, and Ed Gillespie -- for advice. Onward and upward! That and the day's other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--David Kurtz
Pete Seeger
MJ Rosenberg on the Pete Seeger's 90th Birthday celebration at Madison Square Garden.
--Josh Marshall
Make Him Work For It
I'm generally of the opinion that it's great to have anyone as a Democrat who will caucus with the party and support its candidates. People get all bent out of shape about Ben Nelson (D-NE); and I'd count myself among the bent. But it'd be difficult to get a Democratic elected from Nebraska whose politics were dramatically different from Nelson's. And party's aren't political cells or even clubs; they/re coalitions.
This has mainly informed my opinion about Arlen Specter, given what I've always considered his relatively reasonable politics and what high-profile party switches almost always tell us about the shifting tectonic plates about the nation's politics. But Specter does seem to have been going out of his way, not just on the optics, which I can sort of understand (since he doesn't want to appear utterly craven), but also to oppose the consensus Democratic position on almost every issue. And in any case, Specter isn't just a Democrat in 2009 and 2010. He's running in the Democratic primary as a first time nominee for senate. And there's a decent argument to be made that the state could elect a substantially more progressive Democrat this year, though Pennsylvania Democrats, even ones that are pretty progressive on some issues, tend to be fairly conservative on others.
So it was with all that in mind that I read this typically meaty post from Nate Silver which notes that by some measures Joe Sestak, who's looking like Specter's most probable primary challenger, may actually be more conservative than Specter. (Note that SEIU head Andy Stern says he's holding a meeting with Sestak tomorrow.)
I guess my thought on this, to the extent it matters -- which isn't much since I'm not a Pennsylvania voter -- is that I'm happy to have him as a Dem. But it'd be nice to see him have to make some case to the Democrats in his state that he's worthy of their nomination -- something that could be accomplished either by Sestak threatening to get in or actually challenging him in the primary. Because at the moment at least it does seem like he's taking the matter entirely for granted.
Thoughts?
--Josh Marshall
Not So Fast, Arlen?
What Andy Stern twittered earlier this afternoon: "Congressman Sestak impressive on CNN. Visiting him tomorrow."
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Sunday Roundup
Arlen Specter reiterated on Face The Nation that while his tough Republican primary was a factor in his party switch, he is also becoming more comfortable on principle with the Democrats' policies. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Sunday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
