Pictures of the Protests
Our slideshow of the protests today in Iran -- a mix of newswire photos and amateurs on the ground photographing the protests as they unfolded.
--Josh Marshall
Rafsanjani
I had seen unconfirmed reports that former Iranian President Rafsanjani had resigned from the Expediency Discernment Council but not the Assembly of Experts. But al Arabiya says he's actually resigned from both, as a protest to the election ...
Moreover, in a protest against election results Iran's Hashemi Rafsanjani resigned from his posts as the chairman of the Assembly of Experts and as head of the Expediency Discernment Council, the two most influential institutions in the country.
Iranian authorities have also reportedly asked foreign reporters to leave the country -- always a good sign.
--Josh Marshall
Laura Secor in The New Yorker
Laura Secor, who's done a great deal of reporting on Iran, has a piece up on The New Yorker's website. And she has little doubt the election was stolen.
Actually, make that no doubt ...
There can be no question that the June 12, 2009 Iranian presidential election was stolen. Dissident employees of the Interior Ministry, which is under the control of President Ahmadinejad and is responsible for the mechanics of the polling and counting of votes, have reportedly issued an open letter saying as much. Government polls (one conducted by the Revolutionary Guards, the other by the state broadcasting company) that were leaked to the campaigns allegedly showed ten- to twenty-point leads for Mousavi a week before the election; earlier polls had them neck and neck, with Mousavi leading by one per cent, and Karroubi just behind.
--Josh Marshall
Two Stories In Parallel
After spending most of the day with my family I've plugged back into the evolving news out of Iran. And amidst my efforts to sift through the blizzard of information and rumor to get some sense of what is happening, it's hard to miss the two very different storylines, not based simply on different facts but on very different interpretations that make sense of them. Many of the links I've posted over the last couple hours are taking it as basically a given that a massive fraud took place -- enough to put Ahmadinejad's 'victory' fundamentally in doubt.
Operating on these assumptions, Gary Sick writes: "If the reports coming out of Tehran about an electoral coup are sustained, then Iran has entered an entirely new phase of its post-revolution history." Sick argues that while Iran's revolutionary elite have placed severe constraints on who could run in the republic's elections and often stymied the reforms of reformers like former President Khatami, they had not until yesterday felt compelled to outright steal an election.
At the same time you have this current lead story in Newsweek by Christopher Dickey. Dickey's covered the Middle East for Newsweek for many years. His reporting has always struck me as more like the coverage of the Middle East you read in the European press -- not ideologically left, but certainly contrary to the dominant tone of reporting on the Middle East you find in the American press.
Dickey starts from the very different assumption that what happened here was simply that the Western press got wildly ahead of itself by assuming the more educated and cosmopolitan voters in Tehran and other big cities represented the whole country. In the event, what we might call Iran's 'silent majority', conservative rural voters and the working classes of the cities, turned out in massive numbers for Ahmadinejad. "It appears that the working classes and the rural poor--the people who do not much look or act or talk like us--voted overwhelmingly for the scruffy, scrappy president who looks and acts and talks more or less like them," he writes. "And while Mousavi and his supporters are protesting and even scuffling with police, they are just as likely to be overwhelmed in the streets as they were at the polls."
I do not say this having a clear position on which underlying set of facts is more credible, though, as I noted before, I put a lot of stock in Juan Cole's analyses of questions like this. And he seems to think the regional breakdowns of the election data are simply not credible.
But going forward I have to imagine that either new facts or simply the momentum of one or other of the narratives will take hold and be the defining one in countries outside Iran. I'm eager to see which one it is.
--Josh Marshall
Gary Sick Takes Stock
Iran expert Gary Sick has a new post up taking stock of what's happened over the last 48 hours and what decisions confront the key players in the drama. I won't try to summarize it. But in his reconstruction of events he does say (what I'd heard earlier but not in a way that seemed reliable) that the Mousavi campaign was apparently notified by election officials that they had won only to see Interior Ministry officials announce an Ahmadinejad victory just a short time later.
--Josh Marshall
Obama Keeping His Distance
Spencer Ackerman explains why it's probably a good idea that the White House is maintaining a very low key stance on the events in Iran.
--Josh Marshall
Must Read on Iran
For those of us with little deep knowledge of Iranian politics or culture, it's pretty difficult to come to any independent analysis supporting the proposition that the election was stolen. We can go with -- Ahmadinejad bad guy, Mousavi good guy, and with all those rallies and excitement, how could Mousavi have lost? But clearly we need some more searching analysis to sustain the claim that the thing was rigged.
And Juan Cole seems to provide it here.
According to Cole, many of the election results -- not so much looking at the national totals, but who won and by how much in certain provinces and regions -- simply are not credible. Cole even puts together some informed conjecture on how the theft went down. This is absolutely must-read stuff as, I suspect, will be many of his posts over the coming days.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Saturday Roundup
Sonia Sotomayor doing well so far at a key part of the confirmation process: Schmoozing with Senators. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Saturday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Sure Glad These Minutemen Guys Got Us Covered
From the Seattle Post-Intelligencer ...
An outspoken anti-immigration activist from Everett has been arrested in Arizona in connection to a deadly home invasion robbery.Shawna Forde, the executive director of the Minutemen American Defense, is one of three accused in the shooting deaths of 29-year-old Raul Flores and his daughter, 9-year-old Brisenia Flores, at their home in Arivaca, Ariz., a town 10 miles north of the Mexican border.
Two others - 34-year-old Jason Bush and 42-year-old Albert Gaxiola - were arrested. All three have been charged with two counts of first-degree murder, one count of first-degree burglary and one count of aggravated assault.
According to the Pima County Sheriff's Office, two men and a woman posing as police officers forced their way into the Flores ' home in the middle of the night on May 30.
Late Update: TPM Reader CE notes that the MAD website has a post up categorically denouncing the actions of the killers, one of the whom is allegedly the executive director of the organization and pledging fealty to the rule of the law and humanity in general. But I guess it's a tad belied by headlines down the page like this one: "Subhuman Mexicans (God's Children?) Prey on Countrymen." With sentiments like that, who could have imagined things could escalate to violence, right?
Later Right Wing Terror Update: TPM Reader JW notes that this article in the Arizona Republic identifies one of the three accused murderers is Jason Eugene Bush, who goes by the nickname "gunny". And a recent post on the group's website announced his appointment as the group's 'operations director' ...
We are honored to have Gunny aboard. He served 6 tours over seas, where he has several medals. He received a Purple heart, Silver and Bronze star, Combat Infantry Badge and a Presidential citation for his actions in the Special Forces. He will be in charge of all operations along the Southern Border, assisting in command decisions, Recon and Tactical training. Gunny will be permanently located at MAD'S new 40 acre Base Camp, located somewhere on the Southern Border.
The man killed in the home invasion was a suspected drug dealer. And police say the invaders' plan was to kill the entire family and steal money and drugs which would later be sold for cash. The Arizona Republic has some more detail on MAD's connection with the better-known (I can't quite manage to call them 'mainstream') Minutemen groups ...
Forde is executive director of Minutemen American Defense, a border watch group that claims to secure the U.S. Border from human and drug trafficking, according to its Web site.The Minutemen American Defense group is not associated with the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps, said Al Garza, vice president of the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps.
Forde was a leader with the Civil Defense Corps a few years ago but was dismissed after a few months because of leadership issues, he said.
--Josh Marshall
More on That IG Firing
Yesterday afternoon Zack Roth wrote up our initial run-down on President Obama's firing of the Inspector General of the Corporation for National and Community Service (which runs Americorps). Now Jake Tapper has some more background on the tick tock of how the firing went down, with the IG's initial refusal to resign.
The way this account reads there was some real urgency in canning the guy, though perhaps it was simply that they gave him a courtesy opportunity to resign rather than be fired, which is what eventually happened. On the other hand, it seems like pretty much everyone who came in contact with the guy, Republican and Democrat, thought he was out of control and probably should be fired.
--Josh Marshall
Wishful Thinking?
An article in the Guardian suggests the boomlet belief that Mousavi had a chance of winning was just a mirage in the minds of western reporters who were spending their time in Tehran, particularly the wealthier and more educated neighborhoods, and had little sense of the wellsprings of piety and rural and working class resentment that fueled Ahmadinejad's reelection. Not sure that's the right take or not. There are certainly abundant claims of fraud from the opposition today. But it's a counterpoint that is at least worth a good read and probably contains at least some real measure of truth.
Meanwhile, Mr. Mousavi seems to be digging in, insisting Ahmadinejad won through fraud, and calling on his supporters to resist.
--Josh Marshall
IG Canned ... A Story?
There was news overnight that President Obama fired the IG of the Corporation for National and Community Service after he'd been skirmishing with an Obama ally, former NBA star and now Mayor of Sacramento, Kevin Johnson. That raised the possibility of political funny business. So we had TPMmuckraker's Zack Roth give it a close look. And here's our initial run-down on what he found.
--Josh Marshall
Changing Story
Earlier we noted reports that election officials were calling a lopsided win for Ahmadinejad. But that's now less clear. Apparently what election officials said, in a hastily called press conference following Mr. Mousavi's press conference (in which he himself claimed victory), was that 19% of the vote had been counted and that President Ahmadinejad was up by roughly 69%.
Obviously that's very different from calling the whole election by that margin. What's more, there's some suggestion these votes are coming disproportionately from rural areas, where Ahmadinejad claims his strongest support.
It's not clear to me, candidly, whether the initial reports were incorrect, unclear or whether we misunderstood what we were hearing. But we'll keep you up to date on the very latest.
--Josh Marshall
Choppy Waters
I want to emphasize again that we're dealing with early, scattered and to an extent contradictory reports. But what's come into focus in the last half hour suggests this election could escalate into something pretty messy. For a few hours both sides have been claiming victory with 60% or so of the vote. But campaigns often make these sorts of claims. And the polls were still not closed.
But now the official state news agency has called the election or perhaps better to say 'reported' that Ahmadinejad has won. al Arabiya has the state news agency calling it for Ahmadinejad with a somewhat improbable 75% majority (ed.note: latter reports suggest the government claim is of a 69% win). That's not quote the 'state' calling it for the incumbent. But it sounds like that's where we're headed.
At the same time, Mr. Mousavi just held a press conference in which he said that he's the "definite winner" and by a substantial margin.
So like I said, this ride could get pretty bumpy.
Late Update: We're trying to piece together the details here. But the latest seems to be that election officials are calling the election for Ahmadinejad with a bit over 69% of the vote. Perhaps not a huge distinction from the official state news agency. But a significant difference, I think.
--Josh Marshall
Late Reporting
This should all be taken with a big grain of salt at this point because the reporting is very chaotic and hard to confirm. But we're starting to get some early reports suggesting that Mousavi may have had a very strong showing today. CNN's Octavia Nasr picks up al Arabiya reporting that former President Khatami congratulating him for "winning the election," though who knows whether that, if true, tells us the outcome or is mere theater in the context of a close race.
We'll keep watching closely in this thread and see what more concrete we can find.
Late Update: There are unconfirmed but multiple reports that Mousavi is about to hold a news conference on the election. This seems like a classic 'fog of war' situation in which you have a chaotic situation, many contradictory reports and an added level of confusion tied to information bleeding across the language barrier in real time.
Later Update: CNN and Fox are now both reporting that the official state news agency is reporting a win for Ahmadinejad, which could mean we're in for a bumpy ride since the Mousavi himself just announced that he believes he won.
--Josh Marshall
Stop The Presses!!!
In a real shocker, Pat Buchanan says he prefers the "old bigotry" against blacks over today's affirmative action because "at least it was honest."
Somehow this doesn't really shatter my expectations of the man ...
--Josh Marshall
A Tea-bag Too Far?
Key Tea-bagging group embraces socialist realist art to combat Obama's socialism.
--Josh Marshall
Now That's a Get
Joe Klein gets an interview with Mousavi -- apparently conducted yesterday, the day before the election.
--Josh Marshall
I Did Not Know That
Turns out there are 32 polling places open in the US for the Iranian election.
--Josh Marshall
The Human Rights Dimension
Gary Sick on the human rights dimension of today's election.
Meanwhile, voting has been extended again, now to 12:30 PM eastern time.
Late Update: Obama comments on today's elections.
--Josh Marshall
Rep. Buyer (R) Denounces Tobacco Socialism
This morning Indiana Rep. Steve Buyer (R) denounced the tobacco regulation bill claiming its heavy-handed emphasis on full tobacco "abstinence" would stymie the power of market innovation to develop new and safer tobacco products.
--Josh Marshall
Context
A key part of understanding the context of today's election is the structure of Iran's government, what the president controls and what he doesn't. The BBC has a good primer.
--Josh Marshall
The Dance Continues, Pt. 2
Eli Lake reports on Bibi Netanyahu's latest move in the dance between the US and Israeli governments. The essence is an edging up to endorsement of the concept of a two-state solution.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) compares the Obama Administration to Vladimir Putin's Russia. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Sites to Watch
Needless to say, a key site to watch today, as we await the election results from Iran, will be Juan Cole's Informed Comment.
Also a definite must-read is Todd Gitlin's post on John Kelly's map of the Farsi blogosphere. Great links to more information.
--Josh Marshall
Send Us the News (On Iran)
It's tomorrow in Iran. We're going to be following the results of the Iranian election closely tomorrow. But finding the latest and most detailed information is going to be difficult -- both because we don't know all the best sites and because of the obvious language barrier. So if you're watching, please send us the best articles and reports -- with a special emphasis on breaking details and news.
(So please, seriously, send us the best links as fast you find them. Okay? Cool.)
Late Update: I hadn't heard this yet. But in his final television appearance, which I think was Wednesday, Presidnet Ahmadinejad accused his presidential rivals of conspiring with the Israelis to falsify graphs and documents to discredit him (presumably on his management of the economy).
--Josh Marshall
It Gets Better
You had to figure righties were going to be bored with just calling von Brunn a left-winger. Andrew Breitbart is taking it to a new level: von Brunn is a "multiculturalist just like the black studies and the lesbian studies majors on college campuses."
The only evidence I can see that von Brunn may have had some affection for the left is that his horrific crime seems to have driven the mainstream right into a collective paroxysm of protest too much-ism ...
--Josh Marshall
All Over But The Swearing In
Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSBlog explains that if you look at the history of recent court confirmation battles and what it takes to build up serious oppposition, this one's over, and Sotomayor won.
--Josh Marshall
Down to the Wire in Iran
In our discussion of tomorrow's election in Iran, we've noted the crucial background role of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former two term president and a vastly powerful figure in Iran's politico-clerical establishment. This Times articles looks further into his behind the scenes role.
--Josh Marshall
"Inevitable"
Anti-abortionist extremist Randall Terry says President Obama is making more violent attacks "inevitable."
--Josh Marshall
Absurdist Cinema
As you know there are a about a dozen exonerated Uighurs (wee-gurs) in a legal limbo after the US okayed them for release from Gitmo but couldn't find any country willing to take them.
Earlier this week we learned that they are being released to live in Palau, a nominally independent quasi- US island territory of approximately 20,000 residents in the North Pacific, best known for occasional tourism and for being the scene of one season of the CBS reality series Survivor.
Besides big subsidies for military basing rights, most Palauans earned their living through fishing and subsistence farming. It's actually an archipelago of hundreds of tiny islands, with eight 'big' ones. So the Uighurs should fit right in.
When we heard the news, we thought that whatever the legalities and ethics of the matter it had the makings of a decent Salman Rushdie novel or perhaps a good sitcom. So we decided we'd put together our own screenplay treatment for any producers who might be interested.
Late Update: A decidely luckier group of four Uighurs were sent last night to Bermuda. But now there's a new controversy because while the country's elected premier gave the okay, apparently no one told the governor, the representative of the head of state, Queen Elizabeth II.
--Josh Marshall
Note Found in von Brunn's Car
According to charging documents filed today in Washington, DC., investigators found a note in the car James von Brunn drove to the Holocaust Museum. In what investigators refer to as "handwritten notations" found in a notebook in the car, von Brunn wrote ...
"You want my weapons -- this is how you'll get them. The Holocaust is a lie. Obama was created by Jews. Obama does what his Jew owners tell him to do. Jews captured America's money. Jews control the mass media."
--Josh Marshall
Falling For Your Own Spin
It is certainly true that what white supremacists and neo-Nazis believe is not simply a more advanced or extreme articulation of what mainstream Republicans or conservatives believe. But it is half bizarre and half comic that in the bubble of the Goldberg-era National Review it has actually become a 'paradox' or a bizarre leap of reasoning to state what everyone else in the world finds transparently obvious and unremarkable -- namely that neo-Nazism and white supremacy are forms of violent extremism of the right.
Here's Andy McCarthy today at the Corner ...
So what does that leave us with? A lunatic who killed an abortion doctor (and was vigorously condemned by conservatives for doing so), and an 88-year-old white supremacist of the Nazi bent (which somehow makes him a rightwing savage -- a paradox Jonah has written a book about) who killed a guard with a shotgun at the Holocaust Museum.
It's always a sign of danger for a political movement when they actually start believing their own agitprop, claptrap and bamboozlement.
--Josh Marshall
Deep Thought
How long will it be until white supremacists claim that the shooting at the Holocaust Museum never happened?
--Eric Kleefeld
von Brunn's Connections Unfold
As James von Brunn remains in a hospital in Washington with a bullet wound to the head, his connections to right-wing extremist groups is coming more clearly into view. One of the connections is to right-wing circles in Michigan. Little more than a week ago he transferred control and registration of his website to a guy named Steve Reimink.
(ed.note: This is an edited version of the original post.)
--Josh Marshall
Plan B
Though it will be far from a panacea for all the troubles facing the region, we should all hope that Mr. Mousavi manages to defeat President Ahmadinejad in tomorrow's presidential election in Iran -- or at least force him into a run-off later this month. But if that doesn't happen and Ahmadinejad is reelected, there's a second chance we'll have to move Iran on the course toward reform and peaceful relations with its neighbors. And former Bush administration official and would-be warlord John Bolton explains it in today's Wall Street Journal.
All that's necessary is a major aerial military assault. As Bolton explains ...
Many argue that Israeli military action will cause Iranians to rally in support of the mullahs' regime and plunge the region into political chaos. To the contrary, a strike accompanied by effective public diplomacy could well turn Iran's diverse population against an oppressive regime.
So if things don't go well tomorrow, at tleast there's a back up plan.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
Senate Republicans complain that Sonia Sotomayor hasn't given them enough information, and ask her to submit a supplement. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Confrontation Looming
There's been a lot of talk about how Prime Minister Netanyahu will respond to President Obama's insistence on a settlement freeze and whether he'll announce a new position in his upcoming security speech. This article in today's Ha'aretz says Netanyahu has come up with his answer. And it's basically to tell Obama to go screw himself, though it's couched in a lot of bilateral happy talk. He's embracing the 'road map' but with a description that doesn't sound like the actuall road map that everyone else is talking about and no freeze on settlements. Here's an article which gives some sense of the pressures within his coalition which likely make it impossible to do anything else.
Netanyahu's hope seems to be that he can square the circle by working out 'informal understandings' which will satisfy Obama while refusing a formal settlement freeze, and probably any settlement freeze at all.
Meanwhile Israel President Peres (largely a ceremonial position -- but of some consequence in this case because of who Peres is) is saying the parties should move immediately to stage two of the road map which would mean agreeing on the declaration of a Palestinian state with provisional borders.
With Netanyahu, I doubt he has the skills or vision to manage this. And it's hard to see how his government survives long.
--Josh Marshall
That Iranian Election
This morning we discussed Friday's presidential election in Iran. Iran lacks the saturation coverage of fairly reliable public polling data. But there are signs -- based on anecdote and some polling data -- that the race between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi has tightened dramatically in recent weeks and that Ahmadinejad might actually lose. At a minimum it seems like there's decent chance that he'll be forced into a run-off later this month.
We must note all the standard caveats -- that 'reformists' and hardliners in Iran both operate within the consensus supporting the country's theocratic regime, that the country's internal politics operates on a lot that has nothing to do with Obama or Israel or most of the other things we tend to think in terms of. In fact, Ahmadinejad's management of mismanagement of the country's economy seems to be playing a major role creating dissatisfaction with this government.
That said, a significant part of Mousavi's campaign has been the charge that Ahmadinejad has needlessly isolated the country with confrontational stance vis a vis the West. And Ahmadinejad's defeat, whatever its mix of domestic causes, would shake up most of the big crises and problems facing the Mideast -- and the US.
So, with that in mind, I want to share two links with you. First, our slideshow of images of the campaign, which has been particularly raucous and is just now coming to a conclusion. And next is Laura Rozen's discussion of official Washington's silence, as policymakers and administration officials wait to see the outcome of Friday's vote.
Late Update: And as MJ Rosenberg notes, some neocons seem to be in something like a panic that Ahmadinejad could actually lose.
--Josh Marshall
Rising Tide
Does the Holocaust Museum shooting -- and other recent events -- vindicate that much-pilloried DHS report on right-wing extremist groups?
--Josh Marshall
In Other News ...
Minnesota election court orders Norm Coleman to pay Franken almost $100,000.
--Josh Marshall
More and More Frightening
Shep Smith unloads on "more and more frightening" emails about Obama from Fox viewers.
--Josh Marshall
von Brunn a 'Birther'
One thing we've learned about James von Brunn is that he was apparentely a 'birther', one of these folks who claims that Barack Obama is not the legitimate president of the United States because he is not a natural born US citizen (this is all the 'where's the birth certificate' nonsense).
The great majority of the people who're into this stuff are just harmless wingers and nutballs. But this stuff has clearly also permeated the extremist fringe. We'll be putting more up on this soon. But this is clearly of a piece with rising right-wing extremism and fringe violence that -- uncomfortably as it is to say -- is rising in tandem in the early months of the Obama presidency.
--Josh Marshall
A Hero on the Racist Fringe
As we've been investigating the background of James von Brunn, the suspect in today's shooting at the Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC., we've learned that he's not some unknown figure on the extreme racist right. He was seen as something of a revered elder.
--Josh Marshall
Profile of James W. von Brunn
Here's a run-down on the background of the suspect in today's shooting at the Holocaust Museum.
Late Update: An index of links to von Brunn's selected writings.
--Josh Marshall
More on the Suspect
We're putting together a list of James W. von Brunn's various writings on the web -- a mix of anti-semitic and white supremacist rantings. Perhaps not surprisingly, he was also big on the 'mystery' about whether Barack Obama is really a US citizen. Here's von Brunn's rant on Obama's citizenship.
And there's more: von Brunn on Hitler's 'worst mistake'.
And here's von Brunn on immigration.
--Josh Marshall
Holocaust Museum Shooting ... Running Updates
2:09 PM Update: The latest news suggests that the gunman was a 89 year old male.
2:13 PM Update: Shooter apparently has a record of connections with white supremacist groups. NBC is reporting that the he tried to raid the Federal Reserve building in 1981. Long history of anti-Semitic and white supremacist remarks, etc.
2:22 PM Update: This is a photo of James W. von Brunn, the suspect in today's shooting ...
This is from his bio, apparently written by himself or someone sympathetic to him: "In 1981 Von Brunn attempted to place the treasonous Federal Reserve Board of Governors under legal, non-violent, citizens arrest. He was tried in a Washington, D.C. Superior Court; convicted by a Negro jury, Jew/Negro attorneys, and sentenced to prison for eleven years by a Jew judge. A Jew/Negro/White Court of Appeals denied his appeal. He served 6.5 years in federal prison. (Read about von Brunn's "Federal Reserve Caper" HERE.) He is now an artist and author and lives on Maryland's Eastern Shore."
--Josh Marshall
Breaking
Shooting at/in US Holocaust Museum in DC.
Late Update: We're getting scattered early reports. Eyewitnesses on the scene, reported by CNN, speak of five shots being fired inside the Museum. Another unconfirmed report says that one gunman is in custody and that either two or three people (including the gunman) were shot.
Latter Update: Further reports suggest three victims of the shooting, one critical, in addition to the suspect who was apparently shot leaving the Museum.
1:46 PM Update: The most recent news suggests that there are only two gunshot victims -- a guard at the museum and the shooter himself. Wapo says there was a third gunshot victim. But other reports suggest the third person may have been cut by flying glass. This AP story notes the contradictory reports.
1:53 PM Update: A big and obvious question about this incident is how someone got a gun inside the Holocaust Museum, which presumably has heavy security. A current police press briefing suggests that the gunman was either in or rushing the entryway where the security set up is located, and that that is where the exchange of gunfire took place ... the police spokesman answering questions was PIO David Schlosser.
--Josh Marshall
Slideshow: Behind the Scenes On Obama's the Mideast Trip
The White House has now released a series of behind the scenes photos of Obama's trip to the Middle East.
For whatever reason, the ones I liked the best were the ones behind the scenes with Rahm. Rahm on his blackberry in the Royal Palace in Riyadh. Rahm on a camel in Egypt. Rahm inside some Pyramid. Rahm walking in front of some Pyramid.
Of course, there are plenty of pics of the Obama guy too.
--Josh Marshall
Could Ahmadinejad Lose?
It's been very difficult to get clear polling data. But Iran is holding a presidential election on Friday and it seems clear at least that the main challenger, reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi, is riding a surge of support that is building on dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad's rule. Whether he can beat him is an open question -- the quality of the polls in Iran are iffy and they're contradictory at the moment. But it seems at least likely that he can force Ahmadinejad into a run-off later this month.
Needless to say, a defeat for Iranian hardliners, at the present moment, could have repercussions throughout the region.
Could be a very big deal.
Part of what's churned things up so much over the last couple weeks has been Ahmadinejad's particularly scathing attacks on Mousavi, his wife and unnamed people in the Iranian establishment. That prompted Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, himself a former president, to write an open letter criticizing the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for not reining Ahmadinejad or criticizing his behavior. To further add to the mix, Ahmadinejad beat Rafsanjani when he was elected the first time. And Rafsanjani, in turn, is the head of something called the Assembly of Experts which could, in theory, unseat Khamenei, though I don't think anyone sees that as at all likely.
The factional infighting within Iran is notoriously difficult to follow and has an ability to make fools of all but those with the most expertise on the country, and sometimes even them. It's also important to note that people who are fundamentally at odds with the country's system of government simply aren't allowed to run for office at all. Still, there are signs of give in the system and dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad, which could reshuffle what is in the realm of the possible in capitals around the region and even around the world.
--Josh Marshall
Don't Miss It
If you're going to be in New York later this month, this year's Personal Democracy Forum conference is coming up on June 29 and 30th. It's basically the conference every year for people working at the nexus of the internet and politics. Some of the folks who will be there this year include White House CIO Vivek Kundra; Deputy CTO for Open Government Beth Noveck; State Department Senior Adviser for Innovation Alec Ross; New York Times columnist Frank Rich; Craigslist founder Craig Newmark; Fivethirtyeight.com blogger Nate Silver; Ning.com co-founder Gina Bianchini; Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey; Obama '08 new media director Joe Rospars and a bunch of others. Click here for more information on who's going to be there and how to register.
Now here's the super cool part. Mobilizing the massive market power of TPM we've arranged so that you can get $100 off the registration fee if you use the the code "TPM" in the registration form.
Who says TPM doesn't have you covered?
--Josh Marshall
Join Mitt in the Family Skybox!
Mitt Romney has just announced a Mitt Pac essay contest about keeping America free and strong. The winner gets to join the Mitt clan in the 'family seats' at a Boston Red Sox game. Runners up can win a a Mitt-autographed ball.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
In a further sign of possible GOP slow-walking, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) says that a vote on Sonia Sotomayor's nomination might not occur until September. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Lock, Stock & Barrel
The Politico has a report on a proposed plan from the US Chamber of Commerce to spend up to $100 million on opposing President Obama's various economic, energy and health care reforms. But it's a bit hard to distinguish the Politico article from a Chamber press release. Here are some nuggets from the article itself ...
As the Obama administration encroaches deeper into the private sector and Congress contemplates more regulations, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching a multimillion-dollar campaign to defend the free market system....
Taken together, the government could soon determine who gets a mortgage, which cars
consumers can buy, the type of treatments patients will get and how many credit cards a person can carry.
The government won't let me buy a Toyota? Do I have to buy a GM car? Really?
--Josh Marshall
Too True, Too True
Charles Krauthammer on what Fox News Channel has acheived: "What Fox did is not just create a venue for alternative opinion. It created an alternate reality."
(ed.note: Special thanks to TPM Reader BJ for the catch.)
--Josh Marshall
Not To Be Missed
At TPMCafe Book Club this week we're hosting a discussion of Richard Haass's new book War of Necessity, War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars. Click here to read Haass's introduction to the discussion.
--Josh Marshall
VA Live Elex Results
We're bringing you live results from the Virginia gubernatorial primary down to the right. So far not looking too good for McAuliffe.
Late Update: With 40% of results in, it's looking like this was a pretty bad career decision for Terry.
--Josh Marshall
GOP: We'll Vote on Sotomayor in 2011?
Republicans are now suggesting that they need a pro-rata allotment of days before Sonia Sotomayor's hearings based on the time she's served on the bench. Which, we did the math, would come out to waiting 610 days before the senate can hold hearings on her confirmation. How does that make sense? Eric Kleefeld got their spokesman on the phone to see if they're really going to hold out for the full two years.
--Josh Marshall
Okay, Face it, That's a Lot of Czars
In our latest TPM Photo Feature, we review Obama's 22 policy 'czars'.
--Josh Marshall
Obama enrolled in Book of Apocalypse
Jon Voight denounces Obama as "false prophet" at raucous right-wing party rally DC GOP fundraiser.
--Josh Marshall
Specter a 'Flight Risk'?
Sestak on Specter: Dem establishment still hasn't confirmed that Specter won't be a 'flight risk' post-election.
--Josh Marshall
Doing Israel No Favors
Mort Zuckerman, owner and publisher of US News & World Report, has a lengthy opinion piece out in the magazine entitled: "Obama Should Not Abandon Israel in His Effort to Court Muslims."
The title summarizes the premise, which is that while Obama has reasons to court Muslims he is endangering or threatening Israel in order to do it. The core flaw to the reasoning though is that getting out of the West Bank doesn't endanger Israel. It's actually critical to the country's future well-being, even its survival.
There are a few core points to note in this regard. People who argue that the Palestinians and other Arab states are either unwilling or unable to make peace buy into a basic fallacy -- namely that 'giving up' the West Bank is a sacrifice that must be reciprocated by some meaningful and confirmable sacrifice on the other side. In other words, land for peace, as the phrase goes.
But are several levels of problem with his formulation. First, strategic considerations. It used to be argued that Israel couldn't surrender the West Bank because without it, the country would lack 'strategic depth.' In other words, the country's 'waistline' would be too narrow and an invader from the east could easily cut the country in half. But hardly anyone makes this argument any more. And for good reason: successive Israeli generals and members of the country's security establishment say this isn't true.
Next, the settlements themselves, particularly the outlying ones sometimes called 'political' settlements are a security liability in themselves since they're isolated population centers that must be defended in any conflict and occupation duty tends to degrade an army's war-fighting capacity.
But these pale in comparison to the real heart of the matter. Israel doesn't have enough Jewish citizens to make Jews the clear majority in both Israel proper and the Occupied Territories. Therefore, whatever the morality or international law of the matter, holding the Occupied Territories permanently puts Israel on a course to one of two options: becoming a binational state in which Jews make up half or less of the population or a non-democratic state which probably cannot survive under the norms governing first world countries in the 21st century.
Let's be clear what that means: a country that permanently holds territories with residents who lack citizenship, the vote and many of the rights of the citizens of the country in question. You can throw around inflammatory words like 'apartheid' which I don't think is appropriate or apt because of the very different origins of the two situations. But it strikes me as naive to believe that such a situation can be maintained permanently without growing international pressure and isolation that will strangle the country.
What this logic tells me is that getting out of the West Bank isn't a prize to be exchanged for peace if and when you can find a leader on the Palestinian side who you have perfect trust in. Getting out of the West Bank is quite simply necessary to the survival of Israel as a Jewish state. So ideally you get out in exchange for a durable peace. And you try to do it in the smartest and most orderly manner. But you get out regardless. And realizing the necessity of leaving means, at a minimum, as a first step, stopping doing things that make it harder, perhaps nearly impossible, to leave. And the first thing on that list is continuing to build new settlements and infrastructure which creates a growing constituency to stay in the settlements forever.
There's nothing remotely original about this argument. It's the same inexorable logic that has led former 'Greater Israel' advocates like Tzipi Livni and Ehud Olmert to come to more or less the same conclusion.
And let me note, to be emphatically clear, that there are many other reasons for Israel to leave the West Bank -- the prospect of a durable peace, which I think is probably achievable, its contribution to regional stability which is a real advantage to the US, the rights of the Palestinians to their own self-determination, etc. etc. etc. But I've focused on this point because at the end of the day it is undeniably in Israel's interest to leave the West Bank.
--Josh Marshall
Personal Diplomacy
Yesterday at a think tank in DC, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) said he had met privately with Chinese government leaders and told them not to believe official US government budget numbers. Or, in other words, that US government debt isn't as good an investment as we say it is.
Think that sort of thing is sort of frowned on by a member of Congress, no? Undermining the federal government with foreign governments?
--Josh Marshall
Rightwing Nutball Watch
Frank Gaffney on Obama: "The man now happy to have his Islamic-rooted middle name featured prominently has engaged in the most consequential bait-and-switch since Adolf Hitler duped Neville Chamberlain over Czechoslovakia at Munich."
--Josh Marshall
Fleischer: No Back to the Future
See former Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer damn Palin and Gingrich with faint praise.
--Josh Marshall
Command & Control
See The Video: President Obama orders Gen. Odierno to shave Stephen Colbert's head.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
The Republicans have their big celebrities, too, with Jon Voight telling last night's GOP fundraiser in Washington to "bring an end to this false prophet Obama." That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Watching the Details
Reich: How hard will Obama push back against the opponents of health care reform?
--Josh Marshall
The Dance Continues
President Obama spoke today to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the White House released this statement ...
The President and Prime Minister had a constructive, 20-minute conversation. The President reiterated the principal elements of his Cairo speech, including his commitment to Israel's security. He indicated that he looked forward to hearing the Prime Minister's upcoming speech outlining his views on peace and security. The President also noted that Senator Mitchell would be in Israel again tomorrow as he starts his fourth trip to the region as the Special Envoy for Middle East peace.
(The White House released this photograph of Obama during the conversation -- at least fun as a parlor game to see whether you can read anything into it.
A few random thoughts on this. First, the entire statement is contained in the second sentence, which is probably obvious. Second, the President has been so forceful and so clear on the issue of settlements that it will be extremely difficult for him to back down in any meaningful way without undermining the credibility of his own presidency and the USA more generally. It would also do profound damage to the country's relations with its Arab allies. Third, I'm curious and somewhat dubious about the quality of the read Netanyahu and his advisors have on Obama and the US domestic political situation generally.
Late Update: Here's the Israeli government's statement on the call.
--Josh Marshall
Frank Not On Board the Arlen Love Train
Barney Frank says he's concerned about Arlen Specter's "erratic behavior pattern" and thinks it's reasonable for Dems to primary him.
--Josh Marshall
Comic Relief
Former Sen. Bob Smith (R) who lost his senate seat in 2002 to John Sununu (who himself got run out of town last year by Sen. Shaheen) is making a bid for a comeback ... from Florida.
--Josh Marshall
Holy Crap Watch
The Dems seem (it's not completely clear yet) to have just lost control of the New York state senate, because of two defections which may be rooted in intra-party disagreements over marriage equality.
--Josh Marshall
Yet More on Settlements, Pt.2
In Ha'aretz today Aluf Benn has a good run-down of the history of US-Israel disagreements, understandings and negotiations on the issue of settlements. It's a bit in the weeds and goes back to the late 1980s. But this is the critical issue. And it's an inherently weedy one. So if you're interested in understanding what this is all about, I recommend it.
--Josh Marshall
Rush and Hewitt: GM Must Die!
A big push to boycott GM seems to be gaining steam on the right.
--Josh Marshall
More on the Public Option
Along with many others, last night I flagged the New York Times article in which opponents of a 'public option' in the health care reform bill are saying that the 'public option' (which is essentially the federal government entering the field with its own health insurance plan) would be so efficient and inexpensive that it might drive for-profit health insurance companies out of business.
Why this is a problem for anyone else beside the for-profit health insurance companies, whose lobbying muscle in Washington kept them out of Dante's third cirlce of hell, is not clear.
But a few readers written in to say, Look, Medicare (which is probably the closest analogue to what a public option might look like) isn't perfect. Many doctors won't accept Medicare, it doesn't cover enough, etc. etc. etc.
I don't think anyone who seriously follows health care policy debates honestly disputes that Medicare insures a ton of people with very low overhead. But you only need relatives in their sixties to know that people have problems finding doctors who will accept Medicare or who feel that Medicare doesn't cover enough and so forth.
But this seems to me to be the heart of the case -- and the real tell about the opposition to the public options within the insurance industry. If it's really true that lots of the best doctors aren't going to accept the 'public option' subscribers, then I have to imagine that's going to put a big brake on migration out of for-profit health insurance and into the public option. In other words, the problem -- to the extent there are ones -- should be self-correcting. Assuming the 'public option' has to exist on something like the same basis as the private carriers, the private carriers only have something to worry about if the 'public option' is just demonstrably better insurance.
--Josh Marshall
Path Back to Power
As Greg Sargent reports, the big brouhaha in the GOP today is finger pointing and figuring out who disinvited Sarah Palin from tonight's big GOP fundraiser and now who will be able to convince her to come after all now that there's a big blow up over the 'snub'. Did Sen. Cornyn do it? His counterpart in the House, Rep. Sessions? And who will find a way to lure her out of her epic post-snub sulk?
--Josh Marshall
OMG, Its U Chuck!
Meet the GOP's official Twitterer-in-Chief: Seventy-something Senator Chuck Grassley (R). He's not just twittering. Anyone can do that. He's managing to sound like he's thirteen years old doing it.
--Josh Marshall
No Let Up
This morning, President Obama's Israel/Palestine envoy said the president wants "immediate" talks between the parties aimed at securing "a comprehensive peace and normalization of relations between Israel and her neighbors.
The background here is that Prime Minister Netanyahu wants talks aimed at economic development in the Occupied Territories, not a final settlement and not a territorial compromise.
Also: Here are some quick comments from former head of the Israeli Navy and later the Shin Bet, Ami Ayalon on the import of the Cairo Speech.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Morning Roundup
The health insurance industry learns to love health care reform -- if it includes a requirement that people buy insurance. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Morning Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
TPMtv: Sunday Show Roundup: The 3 A.M. Test
In her first Sunday interview as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton weighs in on whether Barack Obama has passed the "3 a.m." test that she first raised in her famous campaign ad against him in the 2008 primaries. That and Newt Gingrich's description of Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor evolves from "racist" to "racialist."
Full-size video at TPMtv.com.
--Ben Craw
Get ReWrite
Following the lead of this post by Jon Taplin, you really must read this article in the Times on the battle over including a 'public option' in the new Obama health care reform bill. If you're not familiar with the lingo of this debate, the 'public option' refers to allowing the federal government to sell its own insurance plan which would compete with private health insurance providers. Think of it as a version of Medicare that everyone could buy into.
Here's the key graf from the Times piece ...
But critics argue that with low administrative costs and no need to produce profits, a public plan will start with an unfair pricing advantage. They say that if a public plan is allowed to pay doctors and hospitals at levels comparable to Medicare's, which are substantially below commercial insurance rates, it could set premiums so low it would quickly consume the market.
As Taplin suggests, these 'problems' sound remarkably like 'the point' of the whole exercise. Most of the argument here is that a big government plan would just provide the insurance 'service' much more efficiently and cheaply than private carriers. And that the private carriers wouldn't be able to make any money off selling the service any more. But this is the argument that single payer advocates routinely make -- namely, that a lot of the money that goes into private health insurance goes to paperwork, much of which is tied to finding ways to deny people coverage. That, and the need to earn profits on providing the service.
Presumably if there were other quality advantages to the private plans, the carriers wouldn't be so worried that everyone would switch to the public plan. I think I might be open to some effective scare-mongering on that front. But the private carriers don't seem to have much confidence there's much to scare people about.
--Josh Marshall
TPMDC Sunday Roundup
Hillary Clinton declares that President Obama has in fact passed the "3 a.m." test. That and other political news in today's TPMDC Sunday Roundup.
--Eric Kleefeld
Must Read
Last week we discussed the latest polling data out of Israel responding to Obama's policy push, the settlements question and a two-state solution. Now Bernie Avishai has a much more fine-grained look at the data -- both the bad news and the good.
Whatever your political persuasion on this issue, I strongly recommend you give this a read. Among the many things it shows is how deeply divided Israel is today (much like the Palestinian community in the territories) and the simple reality that neither side of this conflict can resolve this on their own -- outside pressure is necessary.
It is frequently said that Israel's chaotic low-bar-to-entry parliamentary system makes the country hostage to single-interest splinter parties which obstruct the popular will.
But though he doesn't say it explicitly, Avishai's analysis makes clear that this isn't really true. It is probably fair to say that while a majority doesn't support the settlement project and would like a two-state solution eventually -- that a consistent majority favors not facing up to the hard choices and perpetuating the unsustainable status quo as long as possible.
Which is essentially what the political system has provided.
--Josh Marshall
