January 26, 2007 -- 9:04 AM EST // View Comments (5838) // Post a Comment

TOM FRIEDMAN KEEPS DANCING THE "CONDITIONAL SHUFFLE" ON IRAQ.

It's time to coin a new phrase here at The Horse's Mouth: The "Conditional Shuffle." Or, if you prefer, we can call it the "if only dodge."

This takes place when a commentator or pundit continues to call for President Bush to do this or that in Iraq as a way to postpone acknowledging reality and the inevitable. Today, Tom Friedman dances the Conditional Shuffle all over the New York Times Op ed page.

Back in November, Friedman wrote: "We need to face our real choices in Iraq, which are: 10 months or 10 years. Either we just get out of Iraq in a phased withdrawal over 10 months, and try to stabilize it some other way, or we accept the fact that the only way it will not be a failed state is if we start over and rebuild it from the ground up, which would take 10 years. This would require reinvading Iraq, with at least 150,000 more troops...If we're not ready to do what is necessary to crush the dark forces in Iraq and properly rebuild it, then we need to leave -- because to just keep stumbling along as we have been makes no sense."

On January 10, of course, Bush announced that he was sending approximately one seventh the amount of troops that Friedman said we needed to avoid failing. Several days later -- even though he'd said very clearly that if we didn't send 150,000 troops, we should "leave" -- Friedman weighed in again, saying that he could support Bush's surge if the President did this or if the President did that.

In today's column, Friedman again says he can support the "surge" -- that is, if Bush does still other things:

Let the troop surge be accompanied and reinforced by what the Baker-Hamilton commission proposed: a regional conference that puts Syria, Iran, Jordan and Saudi Arabia around a table with Iraqis to try to stabilize the place. And that requires that America brandish carrots and sticks with all the parties. If a real regional conference doesn’t work, then Democrats who want to just set a date to withdraw will have an even stronger case because we will truly have tried everything. But let’s try everything: a surge of diplomacy, not just troops.

So before, it was basically, "if Bush doesn't send 150,000 troops, we should leave." Now it's basically, "if" we try a "regional conference" and it doesn't work, the case for withdrawal is "even stronger."

But Professor Friedman, at what point should we conclude that Bush isn't going to do any of the things you're demanding of him, no matter what the Democrats put "on his desk"? These continued calls for things that almost certainly are never going to happen -- if this, if that -- are becoming nothing more than a dodge. As in: If only Bush would do this or that, then we'd really find out whether we're doomed to fail, and hence doomed to leave.

This has become nothing more than a convenient way of postponing the arduous task of taking a real position on what we should do right now -- whether it's to withdraw immediately, set a timetable for phased withdrawal, or agree that we'll stay forever or until we achieve some sort of defined victory, whichever comes first. The key is that it's time to take a real position on this question independently of what Bush might or might not do in the future. No more of the Conditional Shuffle. No more of the "if only" dodge.

Again: How many more "if onlys" have to fail to materialize before Friedman brings himself to embrace the course that he himself said less than two months ago was our only other option?


To visit the homepage of this blog, where you can see many more posts just like this one, click here.

Update: Matthew Yglesias has more: "Once you don the Moustache of Understanding you'll realize that in order to be a Serious Person it's important that you never agree with liberals." And while you're over at his site, absolutely don't miss this great post.



-- Greg Sargent | Comments (5838) | Post a Comment


COMMENTS:

Friedman pretty much finished off the last shreds of interest i had in him when he made those asinine comments on npr the other day (challenged on his support for the war, he blurted out some condescending nonsense about how next time, like a good liberal, he'd assume that arabs couldn't have democracy).

happily, the era of the op-ed pundit will be over sooner and not later: there is simply no economic point in pinch sulzberger paying friedman good money for bad product that doesn't even appear very often.

Posted by: howard
Date: January 26, 2007 9:57 AM

agreed, howard. as you and I have discussed before, it would make much more economic sense for the times or time mag to hire six to eight reporters with the six figure salary that now goes to friedman and joe klein...

Posted by: Greg
Date: January 26, 2007 10:07 AM

I can't imagine that Friedman thinks anyone takes him seriously at this point. He is as irrelevant as David Brooks, he just doesn't posture quite as much. Dull tools both.

Posted by: horatio
Date: January 26, 2007 10:12 AM

Again: How many more "if onlys" have to fail to materialize before Friedman brings himself to embrace the course that he himself said less than two months ago was our only other option?

hmmm... dunno, how many 'if onlys' are equivalent to 1 Friedman Unit???

Posted by: r€nato
Date: January 26, 2007 10:16 AM

In 2004, Barbara Ehrenreich wrote NY Times columns to fill in for Thomas Friedman, who was on vacation.

I'd prefer if she were made his permanent replacement. I bet it would make the NY Times more popular, too.

Posted by: Eric Jaffa
Date: January 26, 2007 10:17 AM

How many more "if onlys" have to fail to materialize before Friedman brings himself to embrace the course that he himself said less than two months ago was our only other option?

An infinite number.

This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.

Posted by:
Date: January 26, 2007 10:19 AM

The Condi Shuffle?

Posted by: Tim Finnegan
Date: January 26, 2007 10:21 AM

I forget who coined this usage, but Friedman has now penned another column essentially saying, "If Bush governed like a liberal Democrat, then..." Shockingly enough, he's not, and seems unlikely to reverse his entire philosophy toward life and government just because he's managed to screw up everything he's touched.

From a logical perspective, Friedman is taking the coward's way out, like you point out here. The statement "If X, then Y" is only false if X is true but Y is false. If X is false, the statement is automatically true, and your critics can never claim that you were mistaken. From impossible premises do true conditionals follow....but they're useless. Absolutely and completely useless. If we sent over 22,000 troops and I could develop the ability to simultaneously fly, pause time, and turn invisible, then we would certainly win in Iraq. What? You don't feel any more confident? Funny that.

Posted by: jfaberuiuc
Date: January 26, 2007 10:22 AM

I wonder if Friedman will ever realize how closely he is verging upon an outright parody of himself.

I mean, it's just one small step from his 'if only' formulations to, 'if only wishes were ponies, we'd all have ponies!'

Lord what a wanker. And Barbara Ehrenreich will never get a permanent column from the NY Times because she carries a whiff of patchouli oil; I mean, can you imagine what would happen if she were invited to the same cocktail parties which Friedman and Tierney attend? The horror, the horror!

Posted by: r€nato
Date: January 26, 2007 10:22 AM

This is not a way of "postponing" the inevitable. Rather, it's persisting in occupying the country at all costs with the ultimate hope of war with Iran. Stop taking the words of Friedman, Brooks, McCain, Lieberman et al at face value and ask this question: given our dismal and unpopular occupation of Iraq, how would they behave if 1) they wanted that occupation to be permanent and 2) they wanted a war with Iran.

Friedman and allies on the right all have the same ultimate aims, just different rhetorical tactics and political bases of operation.

Posted by: brendan
Date: January 26, 2007 10:26 AM

brendan makes an excellent point. Withdraw from Iraq, and war with Iran is more or less off the table, absent a clear and unequivocal provocation.

Keep troops in Iraq, and war with Iran is always an option... including the manufacture of a causus belli, similar to the Gulf of Tonkin incident or the false flag operation the Germans used to excuse the invasion of Poland.

Posted by: r€nato
Date: January 26, 2007 10:29 AM

If only Tim Russert or some other talking head who gets to interview The Friedman would hold him accountable for his serial positions.

Posted by: Rich
Date: January 26, 2007 10:37 AM

Nobody said carving out a Jewish state in Palestine would be easy, but American Jews should soon be at their wits end with Israeli militarism and expanison of it borders by warmongers, non? At some point, US and Israel's interests do diverge, we must be near that point.

Posted by: TimFinnegan
Date: January 26, 2007 10:45 AM

When thinking about Friedman, and so many other pundits who so often contradict their own prior statements, I am reminded of the great Charles Laughton lines from "Witness for the Prosecution."

"Were you lying then, or are you lying now, or, in fact, are you not a chronic and habitual LIAR?"

The simple answer is, of course, the latter.

Posted by: Morris Sheppard
Date: January 26, 2007 10:56 AM

All you little people
just cannot understand
the depths of sage analysis
from the likes of Tom Friedman
He's surfed a million airports
and so many 5 star hotels
He's even been to Davos
where the somelier's know him well
So stop your low class carping
he gets dollars to your dimes
being completely wrong about everything
is no disgrace at the Times.


Posted by: citizen k
Date: January 26, 2007 11:00 AM

Friedman has always preferred to rend his hair and clothes (and moustache?) with all kinds of 'if only' on all kinds of policy issues.

This has never been even remotely interesting.

What WOULD be interesting is if, for once, instead of hoping that a certain politician will suddenly start acting in a completely different way, Friedman would use his connections and (supposed) insight to help explain WHY a politician acts a certain way. Their ideaology? money? influence? intelligence? etc...

Basically, Friedman keeps wondering why a bear doesn't act like a rabbit, rather than actually teasing out the nature and forces that are right in front of him.

Posted by: mike
Date: January 26, 2007 11:00 AM

I want to second Howards comment on Friedman's npr interview (I believe it was the "OnPoint show". I was also furious at the dismissive, sarcastic way he mocked a caller who dared to challenge him. It also seemed that every other sentence started out..."as I have said/wrote from the beginning" or something along those lines as he DESPERATELY tried to re-position himself as an early critic of the war or at the very least it's execution. His attempt to cover up his culpability and cling to or restore whatever reputation he has left was sad and obvious.

Posted by: Matthew Sylvester
Date: January 26, 2007 11:02 AM

Friedman, like many other pundits, have the luxury of having "the theory class", that is, they can propose all kinds of rediculous/retarded theories, and no one can "technically" ever prove they are wrong because they can always point to whatever action is taken and say "the president did this, but he left out this, which is what was important about my theory". The democrats don't have this luxury, so it would behoove them to let much of the punditry's advice go in one ear and out the other.

Posted by: BJS
Date: January 26, 2007 11:49 AM

Dear Tom Friedman:

Your credibility is sinking. This calls for the creation of another of your tortured metaphors, STAT!

Posted by: r€nato
Date: January 26, 2007 12:06 PM

What? Tom Friedman writes a foreign policy column. With all those IF-THEN-ELSE statements I always thought his column was an intro to basic computer coding. Color me surprised.

Posted by: Phlip
Date: January 26, 2007 12:28 PM

He can't survive this disaster can he? It's like a millstone around his neck. The Rime of the Ancient Friedman must be near the end.

Posted by: daniel
Date: January 26, 2007 12:35 PM

If only the wanker realized that Bush's escalation is going to result in countless more deaths and life-ruining injuries...

Posted by: patroclus
Date: January 26, 2007 12:56 PM

I dunno. I think he's kinda got a point. I mean, if W would only go back to his infancy, be raised without an overweening sense of spoiled rich-boy entitlement, that would do a lot for us. Add to that developing some intellectual curiosity, paying attention in school, ability to listen, tolerate conflicting points of view, appreciate constructive criticism, ability to learn from his own mistakes, maybe a little moral integrity, and we're golden.

If he doesn't do those things, though, it just might be time to throw in the towel on him. Though we'll have to see what develops. Next 6 months--critical.

Posted by: DrBB
Date: January 26, 2007 1:00 PM

If only the wanker realized that Bush's escalation is going to result in countless more deaths and life-ruining injuries...

The lives of American soldiers, of Iraqis, are of no more consequence to Tom Friedman or George Bush than tissue paper is.

They are to be expended without the slightest thought or hesitation. None of them are in the same social circles as Friedman or Bush, so why should the thoughts of death and disfigurement cloud their beautiful minds?

Posted by: Apprentice to Darth Holden
Date: January 26, 2007 1:34 PM

Well, the thing about Friedman and Brooks and all the other cheerleader pundits....they are incompetant all the way to the bank.

I don't see any of them getting fired from their jobs or speaking gigs. I see and read them over and over...and so do most of the folks on this site. Sure, only for laughs or to stay up to date with what administration talking points "du jour" are being foisted upon us... and, of course readership is why they continue to thrive and no doubt will continue to regardless of the poopy they serve up, piping hot.

KEE-RIST, the reality based blogs report more on these guys...and link to them more...than the wingnuts do.

Posted by: 1MaNLan
Date: January 26, 2007 1:38 PM

Uhmmmm,,,INCOMPETENT all the way to the bank....

Posted by: 1MaNLan
Date: January 26, 2007 1:45 PM

Friedman is actually much better than most other pundits, including Klein and Brooks, IMO. He drives me crazy sometimes, but makes good sense at other times. But rarely do I find him as obnoxious as Brooks, Klein, Novak, Will, Tierney, Krauthammer, ad nauseum...

Posted by: Dan Secrest
Date: January 26, 2007 6:01 PM

friedman has reduced himself to a caricature of irrelevent potification and punditry, why should he even be considered topical enough to bother pointing out his glaring inconsistancy and moral bankrupty.

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