January 22, 2007 -- 11:44 AM EST // View Comments (2262) // Post a Comment

NOTE TO FRED HIATT: PLEASE DON'T CHERRY-PICK FROM YOUR OWN PAPER'S POLL TO PORTRAY DEMS AS UNELECTABLE.

Bizarre. Here's what today's Washington Post had to say in a partly positive editorial about Hillary Clinton's entry into the Presidential race:

A second and somewhat contradictory issue for primary voters is the matter of Ms. Clinton's "electability": Is she such a polarizing figure, with such high negatives (44 percent in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, compared with 29 percent for Mr. Obama) that she would be at a disadvantage in the fall campaign? The question about Hillary Clinton may be not so much whether a woman can win the presidency but whether this woman can.

So Clinton may not be "electable" because the Post's poll shows that her "negatives" are at 44%, the editorial says. But wait -- does Post editorial page editor Fred Hiatt simply assume readers won't go and see what the poll says for themselves? Or, alternatively, does Hiatt not read them in full himself?

Let's take a look at another number in that same Post poll that also has a fair amount of relevance to the topic at hand. From the poll's full results:

23. On another subject: do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of (NAME)?

Hillary Clinton: Favorable 54%, Unfavorable 44%
John McCain: Favorable 49%, Unfavorable 35%
Barack Obama: Favorable 45%, Unfavorable 29%

Yep, the poll also found that a sizeable majority -- 54% -- have a favorable view of Clinton. But the editorial didn't mention that niggling bit of information.

Now why would Hiatt's editorial page omit the fact that a majority views Clinton favorably from a discussion of her electability? Why would it go and cherry-pick the "unfavorable" number without sharing the favorable one? Why?

Anybody have any good guesses?


Update: To visit the homepage of this blog, click here.



-- Greg Sargent | Comments (2262) | Post a Comment


COMMENTS:

It seems that Hiatt missed the most amazing stat about Hillary: 98% of the population has an opinion about her. I didn't know that 98% of the population has a firm opinion about anything, frankly.

Hiatt would have been better off quoting the approval-disapproval spreads, which may be problematic for Hillary, but make it much less stark.

Even worse, most of these polls are currently pretty meaningless, a fact that I can't see the WaPo really acknowledging any time soon. Look at the differences between Iowa and New Hampshire, where the candidates have been actively trying to get their message out, and the rest of the country, and you see consistently different patterns. At this point, much of the electorate is still on autopilot for the 2008 election, since many of us are still trying not to sign checks and other documents with "06" for the year.

Posted by: jfaberuiuc
Date: January 22, 2007 12:41 PM

yeah, I'd agree, although one might argue that in Hillary's case more than perhaps anyone else, there might be some significance to approval/disapproval numbers, because everyone knows her in and out in a way they don't know the other candidates...

Posted by: Greg
Date: January 22, 2007 12:47 PM

I also find the editorial misleading for citing the poll as evidence that Senator Clinton may be unelectable in the general election without revealing the poll's results that indicate the opposite.

The poll has Clinton beating both of the top two potential Republican candidates in the fall election. She beats McCain by a margin of 50 to 45 and tops Giuliani by a margin of 49 to 47. Obabama doesn't fare quite as well, beating McCain by 47 to 45, but losing to Giuliani by 49 to 45.

The editorial appears to be more interested in reinforcing the "Hilary is polarizing" storyline than in honestly appraising the race.

Posted by: Gary Malone
Date: January 22, 2007 1:03 PM

Indeed, Gary -- what surprises me about things like this one is just how audacious the paper's willing to be in omitting its own numbers to reinforce the "hillary's polarizing" storyline...

Posted by: Greg
Date: January 22, 2007 1:10 PM

One thing that strikes me about the developing attacks against Hillary (she's polarizing!) and Barack Obama (he's a crypto-muslim!) is that they both play into the hands of the candidate's rhetorical strengths. Hillary can rebut the charges by saying nice, "centrist"-style words like her campiagn would almost certainly have included anyway, and Obama gets to speak about his own personal religious beliefs and how they make him a better person, at which he is really, REALLY good. Unlike Rovian attacks, which turn a candidate's strength into a weakness, these attacks could just focus more attention on their strengths. In some bizarro-world way, I almost appreciate it (but not really).

Posted by: jfaberuiuc
Date: January 22, 2007 1:11 PM

The poll has Clinton beating both of the top two potential Republican candidates in the fall election. She beats McCain by a margin of 50 to 45 and tops Giuliani by a margin of 49 to 47.

Oh, but the kewl kids in the WaPo and their ilk are just getting started...

Posted by: Gregory
Date: January 22, 2007 1:12 PM

The WaPo has fallen a long way. What has happened since the 70's? Would Nixon ever have ran into trouble if the WaPo acted then like they do now. Where do they find hacks like Hiatt?

Posted by: Ghost of Tom Joad
Date: January 22, 2007 1:14 PM

was that in wapo's piece?

Posted by: Greg
Date: January 22, 2007 1:19 PM

jfaberuiuc hits on something very interesting about the poll that seems to have gone noticed. 98 percent of those polled had a non-neutral view on Hillary, compared to 74 percent on Obama. Given how close it was (though admittedly in Hillary's favor), I'm not sure "polarizing" is that bad a way to describe her as a candidate. The Post probably could have done a better job of explaining why that is, but they're not totally wrong.

Posted by: Technogeek
Date: January 22, 2007 2:00 PM

No, they're not, and this is hardly an astonishing take on the Post's part. As somebody involved in politics professionally for the better part of two decades, I can tell you authoritatively that a 45% disapproval for a candidate seeking higher office is absolutely astonishing. I can also tell you that it makes it quite difficult, ultimately, for that candidate to win: typically, he or she would have to drive up their opponent's negatives massively, hope that in the ensuing cluck-clucking over the nasty tone of the campaign some of those disapproving of their own candidacy elect simply to stay home on election day, and then pull out an inside-straight, one or two point win. See "D'Amato, Al, 1992 re-election bid against Robert Abrams," for example...

Posted by: Oyster Barman
Date: January 22, 2007 2:09 PM

Oyster Barman, I think you may be right about the negatives, and I think that's ultimately what Hiatt was attempting to express in the editorial, but in the modern age, I think ANY Dem candidate for President is going to have a high disapproval rating by the time they get to election day, given the rise of the right-wing smear machine. I can't imagine a candidate making it to Election Day with very high approval ratings from the slightly less than half of the electorate predisposed to vote Republican. See Gore 2000, Kerry 2004.

Posted by: ohiomeister
Date: January 22, 2007 2:17 PM

I don't have a problem with the Post describing her as "polarizing" based on the negative number. What bothers me is that in a broader discussion about her "electability," they didn't include a number which is every bit as relevant to that question -- mainly because it would have made for a messier narrative.

Posted by: Greg
Date: January 22, 2007 2:34 PM

One crucial question that needs to be asked when these numbers are thrown around is, "What is the regional breakdown?"

Here in the south there are a number of us worried that we could see some of our recent gains (in NC and VA, for example) reversed with Hillary at the top of the ticket.

If that 44% are disproportionately from the south, then we have reason to be concerned -- and Hillary's opponents have something to talk about in the SC primary and on Super Tuesday. If the disapprovers are spread out evenly throughout the country, then we have less cause for concern.

Posted by: gdgibson
Date: January 22, 2007 2:45 PM

Hillary Clinton is probably getting some unspoken benefit in those polls because the public has been so beaten down with how if they don't like her, its because they don't like a "strong woman." Similarly, Obama gets a benefit because people are told they don't like him because of his race. It'll be tricky to figure out what percent of the voters don't want the pollster to think they are racists or misogynists.

Posted by: Karen
Date: January 22, 2007 5:31 PM

I'm loathe to defend the Washington Post after last week's John Solomon bowel movement on page one, but the unfavorable numbers are actually extremely significant to electability, because they indicate a potential ceiling of support. It's not just the dittohead wingnuts who despise this woman. There are those of us on the left who are sick of her refusal to clearly state opposition to the Iraq disaster and clearly state that getting out is the principle objective. Throw in her flag-burning crap and other nods to the soft fascism of the DLC, and I would never vote for her under any circumstances. She will lose. The Democratic Party powers had better get over it fast and throw their resources elsewhere.

Posted by: Rudy Schwartz
Date: January 22, 2007 5:56 PM

Thanks to others for their insightful comments. Obviously, Senator Clinton deserves far better from the MSM than yet another example of egregious distortion, and doubtless we'll see heaps of even worse MSM rubbish being shovelled on top of her and the other leading Dem candidates for the next 18 months. Nevertheless, it is sensible for Dem primary voters to question whether Senator Clinton carries too much of former President Clinton's "morals" and "triangulation" baggage without his exceptional charisma. Furthermore, will Dem primary voters place their confidence in a northeastern state's Senator for the second straight election when they have solid candidates from the south, west and midwest in the offing?


Posted by: Hemingway
Date: January 22, 2007 8:01 PM

In the last day or so Greg Sargent was trying to take the NYT to the shed over its use of the word "centrist," now he's going after WaPo when in fact it's he that fudging the numbers. Whatever one thinks of any of the candidates, and I don't think much of any of them, Hillary's easily got the smallest spread between favorable and unfavorable of the three. To suggest a candidate with such a high unfavorability response might have problems is perfectly legitimate.

Posted by: romat
Date: January 22, 2007 10:58 PM

Greg: As much as I hate coming to the defense of that mealy-mouthed crew at WaPo, I think the current outrage over their reporting of Hillary's negatives is overblown. Early negative numbers hold a special significance for presidential wannabes. They show the percentage of the electorate that has already made up its mind about a potential candidate, and thus is highly resistant to the blandishments of the consultants and spin doctors. Hillary, after twenty years on the national stage, is a known commodity; as a previous commentator pointed out, 98% of the poll respondents already have an opinion on her. And a 10% margin between positive and negative is much too thin for comfort. Obama, on the other hand, is still an unknown quantity for many voters, giving the consultants much more to work with. I think we should save our outrage for the really egregious journalistic sins, like the circulation of that unconscionable Obama "madrassa" smear.

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