GOP Pollster Says Poll Showing War Support Is Bogus
February 21, 2007 -- 3:06 PM EST // //
Conservatives are out there in full force trumpeting a poll that appeared on the front page of today's New York Post allegedly showing that there's much more support for the Iraq war than anybody thought.
The poll -- which was done by the big GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies and ran under the glaring headline "America Says Lets Win War" -- is being promoted heavily by wingnut talk show hosts, bloggers and others. They are aggressively using it to pump up GOP morale and to undermine Dems' resolve in advance of a showdown between Congress and the White House. Rush Limbaugh said that it's going to "shock the Democrats," while PowerlineBlog's Paul Mirengoff sagely observed that it shows that "the Democrats' defeatist approach to Iraq may not be a winning political strategy." Some liberal bloggers have already started to debunk the poll -- don't miss Steve Benen's skillful skewering of the survey right here.
But guess what: I've just asked another Republican pollster who says he originally supported the war -- let me repeat that, a Republican pollster who says he supported the war -- to analyze the poll. His take? He basically says the poll's a crock. The pollster, David Johnson, the CEO of the GOP firm Strategic Vision, tells me that some of the key questions were leading and designed to elicit the answers they got. "This poll is not the quality we've come to expect from national polling firms," Johnson tells me.
First, let's look at what the poll "found."
In a dramatic finding, a new poll shows a solid majority of Americans still wants to win the war in Iraq -- and keep U.S. troops there until the Baghdad government can take over.Strong majorities also say victory is vital to the War on Terror and that Americans should support President Bush even if they have concerns about the way the war is being handled, according to the survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.
The poll found that 57 percent of Americans supported "finishing the job in Iraq" - keeping U.S. troops there until the Iraqis can provide security on their own. Forty-one percent disagreed.
By 53 percent to 43 percent they also believe victory in Iraq over the insurgents is still possible....
Only 25 percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement, "I don't really care what happens in Iraq after the U.S. leaves, I just want the troops brought home." Seventy-four percent disagreed.
Now let's look at the actual questions. They're here.
The first finding -- that 57 % support "finishing the job" -- is based on asking respondents whether they agree or disagree with the following statement: âI support finishing the job in Iraq, that is, keeping the troops there until the Iraqi government can maintain control and provide security for its people.â What does Johnson, the pollster I spoke to, think about this question?
"It's designed to elicit a positive response by putting respondents in the position of saying that they don't support `finishing a job,'" Johnson says. "It's not a straightforward wording at all. It's also put in the first person to personalize it. In polling when you use the first person you generally get a more positive response."
The next finding -- that Americans think victory is "possible" by 53%-43% -- is based on asking whether respondents agree or disagree with this: "Victory in Iraq, that is creating a young but stable democracy in Iraq and reducing the threat of terrorism at home, is no longer possible for the U.S." Pretty tricky, eh? Note that this question is framed as a negative -- forcing people to disagree with a negative. And it asks whether people think it's "no longer possible" to reduce the threat of terrorism at home -- something that's clearly worded that way because fewer would agree with it.
"This wording is completely unprofessional," Johnson says. "It's designed to confuse the respondent. People are being asked whether two different things can be accomplished -- establishing democracy in Iraq and reducing the threat of terrorism at home -- and [the question] doesn't clarify which one people are talking about."
Finally, let's look at the finding that only 25% agree with the statement, "I don't really care what happens in Iraq after the U.S. leaves, I just want the troops brought home."
"That's a leading question," Johnson says. "It's forcing people who want the troops brought home to say they disagree, because it's forcing them to say they don't care what happens if they're pulled out. Most Americans don't want the troops there but they're also concerned about what will happen if they're pulled out." Asked if he was merely badmouthing a competitor, Johnson said that they were "not often" in competition because his firm does state polls while Public Opinion Strategies focuses on national ones.
So what's the response of the author of this poll to all this? I called Public Opinion Strategies' partner and co-founder Neil Newhouse, and he got back to me. While declining to get into specifics, he said: "He's entitled to his opinion. So he's got a problem with the way the questions are worded? At least we laid them all out there for everyone to see. This shows a much more nuanced view of how voters are looking at the war. This is a significantly different way to look at attitudes."
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