Hillary is FAR more electable than McCain.

Whatever issues voters have with Hillary, at least she has not been committing gaffes on a nearly weekly basis like McCain has done.

I've said it many times before: McCain = biggest bust since New Coke.

Hillary also has far higher Definitely would vote for numbers, 27% compared to McCain's 12%.

It seems very few actual voters are in McCain's corner right now, perhaps given how closely tied he is the Bush/Cheney Administration and the unpopular Iraq War escalation plan, just a few pundit hold-outs, still reminiscing about the glory days of the Straight Talk Express back in 2000.

I suspect they won't until he is the frontrunner again. The electability narrative is part and parcel of the inevitability narrative, i.e. she is definitely going to win, then she is definitely going to lose. His numbers probably have more to do with Iraq, which will become part of the maverick narrative: maybe they will sneak in as "look he is still talking about the surge even though now people are saying they definitely won't vote for him." It might also be an index of how divided the electorate has become. the question for Repu's is whether FThompson will have cross-over appeal. Ditto Obama for Dems.

Hillary also shares an advantage with many Democrats.

When people understand her positions better, they'll agree with her more. When people understand the positions McCain advocates for, they'll like him less.

He's also spent a lot of time kissing up to GWB, something which won't even help with with a lot of Republicans.

Clinton has also had tens of millions of dollars in bogus attacks thrown against her with relatively little spent challenging those lies and distortions on a national scale.

For the most part, McCain has been coddled by the media. FWIW, compared to the treatment that Clinton has received over the years, most candidates have been coddled.

A few more a capella fun moments about starting a new war and "definitely not" will be at 70%.

I wonder how stable the "definitely wouldn't vote for" number remains for an individual. I suspect that people who say "definitely" don't actually mean it. And I bet that a fairly large number of the "definitely not Hillary" people are leftist Democrats who definitely would vote for her in the GE while holding their noses. Ditto for McCain.

I also wonder what the "definitely woudn't vote for" numbers are for the other candidates.

that last big paragraph of sargents is amazing for its clarity.

and it is why the right wont go with McCain. The punditry may have or will give McCain a pass, but the right jsut wont give him one.

the media pass McCain gets even adds to the umbrage the right takes to his political candidacy. (see Rush Limbaugh...)

and unfortunately, McCain is running for the Repub ticket, not the Democratic one. His recent gaffes are actually red meat for the right, and yet it gets him nowhere.

Thanks for raising this issue and I hope others will follow your lead. The coddling of McCain is one of the biggest (and naturally the least reported) stories of the campaign. Even more than being 'associated' with the Iraq war, he might be the most conspicuous enabler of it - another thing that no one seems willing to call him on. He's perhaps the only Republican who could have stood up (and sacrificed any chance he had at the GOP nomination) and stopped this "immoral war" before so many lives were lost. Too good of a soldier one is meant to believe. More obsessed with being President than being honest is more likely the reality. If it was anyone else the pundits would go there in a heartbeat.

Every time that Chris Matthews speaks of him, he tosses in a soppy aside like: "Yeah, the guy's a patriot" as if that sums up McCain and his place in our current, troubled times.

I wouldn't vote for either one of them. Well, I guess, if Hillary got the nomination, I could joke back the tears and vomit and close my eyes and vote for her (and then go home and take an immediate shower), but I sure the hell hope it doesn't come to that.

"Whether it's because he's a vet, or because he was tortured, thus rendering him an unassailable patriot, or whether it's because he's always presumed to be acting on principle, or whether he's merely well liked, there's a certain type of criticism directed at other pols that you rarely if ever see aimed at McCain."

None of the above. It's because they're in luuuuv. Never misunderestimate the power of the man-crush.

you know, fx, I was toying with the idea of saying something about how all these male pundits are intimidated by the fact that he was tortured -- as if they're unsure if they could have withstood what he went through. your idea I think is a lot closer to the truth...

Didn't he just sing "Bonb,bomb,bomb Iran" to a group on his campaign trail? Sounds like a shadow presidency to me...

I believe that same poll showed that the candidate with the combined highest "would vote for" and "would consider voting for" and lowest "definitely would not vote for" was John Edwards. He is currently the most electable of all the presidential candidates. Buh bye Hillary and McCain.

Remember when John Glenn was the Golden Boy who could walk on water and was the "inevitable nominee" of the Democratic party?

Then he started to tank and suddenly he was just an idiot. Well the press has changed little in some ways. They bow down before certain "heros" like they could walk on water. Then they are embarassed and a little surprised at how churlish the voters are to nominate the "annointed one."

McCain had a bubble of inevitability around him and that is now gone. He's looking increasingly forlorn. The media seems to want to cover up for him and protect him from the ungrateful mob.

But, there's only so much they can do, and with numbers like that you know a lot of REPUBLICANS aren't going to vote for him either! I expect that at least 1/2 of the "I'll never in hell vote for McCain" people are Republicans who can never forgive him for opposing Bush and thus being a "traitor."

The Republican party is run exclusively by the Fuhrer Prinzip and outsiders are not welcome!

McCain also does not have the hidden wild card Clinton has. The potential to generate unprecedented enthusiasm from many women who have been on the political sidelines up until this election. There are many single young women who will consider taking some time off from their jobs to volunteer for her if she wins the nomination. Obama is the only other candidate that could have the same extra effect that could tip the normal equation in a general election. No such luck for McCain.
When McCain cozied up to Falwell he lost a good deal of credibility among Independents who had been very supportive of his candidacy. I would not count him out yet. But when Thompson runs, all bets are off. The three amigos will quickly be left in the dust by Fred "L&O" Thompson. The Dems have to be prepared.

It must be said: there are two possibilities where McCain is concerned. Either he has decided, at some sub- or un-conscious level, that he really does not want to be PotUS, or he's suffering from early stage Alzheimer's (or perhaps simple senile dementia - he's old enough). Or maybe both.

Howard Dean's scream looks perfectly reasonable when held up against McCain singing "Bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran..."

The mind wobbles...

McCain is dead dead dead.

He's totally sold out the middle, and is sucking up to the right. And they don't really like him either.

I'm expecting Romney to pick up some steam and take the nomination. He's a pretty good speaker, and will position himself just far enough to the right to pick off the base, while holding onto a good number of independents.

But he won't have enough support to take the general election.

why does the fact that mccain was tortured make his patriotism "unassailable"?

does the fact that he was tortured mean that he has a better moiral compass? or is his own pro torture stance a selfish blowback of assailable proportions?

I'd sit out the election if both were nominated.
My choice.
I wouldn't regret it.

I'd like to agree to with T. I would find it almost impossible to vote for Hilary Clinton. She has betrayed her base consistantly, and rolled over for the Iraq war and for dubious defense bills when the country really needed well articulated and effictive opposition to the current administration.

But McCain is really crazy. I wonder if I would have the nerve to sit out an election if there were a chance of him winning. Clinton taught us what really sleazy was, Bush has taught us what really stupid is. I am terrified what a totally bat-shit crazy president would teach us.

I really hope that neither of them is on the ballot in 2008. I'd really think less of the country if they were.

I predict McCain will ride this wave of self-induced unpopularity for another month or so and then hang it up when he becomes tired of hearing his wife say, "John, you're just making yourself look foolish."

While this might be important for either candidates ability to govern, or their poll numbers whilst in office, unless you correct for the electoral college, I don't think that they are a meaningful measure of 'electability.'

Remember, part of McCain's unelectability is from the religious right, who have never trusted him because he's only recently started to pander to them, and from gun nuts, who are still outraged because he long ago advocated background checks for everybody buying guns at gun shows. They actually tried and failed to recall him in Arizona for such heresy, and will never forget it.

The Straight Talk Express formerly had some validity.

Will all due respect to our fellow Democrats who happen to back Senator Clinton, She is not the person to run for our party's nomination, and she should know it. She does a great job as Senator for NY, and that is where she will do her best work, as a rallying point and leader for our congressional members. She simply carries too much baggage, and she's too polarizing a force to be easily electible. We shouldn't have to beat our brains our for the White House next year. The Republicans are practically gift wrapping the Presidencey for us right now.
If Obama isn't experienced enough (although I submit that he is), then we should look to our Democratic Governors in the Midwest to provide populist appeal for the American electorate. Hillary is a lightening rod, and the moderate republican base still has a very bad taste in their mouths over her. Why make it easy for the GOP? We need a strong candidate that hasn't already been pilloried for a decade by the Limbaughs and Hannitys, who, even as nuckle-gragging idiots, still have the ear of millions of GOP voters, many of whom would be more than happy to vote for a strong Democrat over the uter incompetence shown by the GOP for the last 7 years.
Just consider where your your loyalty to Sen. Clinton will take us- she's not innocent in the mudslinging game, and we need to provide the voter a strong alternative to the sleaze game that the GOP shovels out every 4 years.

i am one of the democrats who would rather eat dirt than vote for h. clinton. if she is the party's choice in the election it will be the first time i have not voted for a democratic party choice since i did not vote for johnson (i was afraid he would continue the vietnam war .. silly of me right?) clinton ? no, no, no !

St. McCain's troubles started when the cameras caught him snoozing at the State of the Union Address!!!

Guiliani is not far behind. 40% say they would definitely not vote for him.

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