Horses Mouth April 17, 2007 10:06 AM

Poll: Fewer And Fewer Americans Buying GOP Arguments About Iraq
April 17, 2007 -- 10:06 AM EST // View Comments (504) // Post a Comment

Josh has already highlighted one of the key numbers in the new Washington Post/ABC News poll -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's approval rating sits at an astonishing 53%, even though "establishment Washington tried to take her down," as Atrios puts it.

But I wanted to flag another number buried in the poll that is an eye-popper and says a lot about the strength of the Dems' political hand as they confront the White House:

20. Do you think (the United States must win the war in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism to be a success), or do you think (the war on terrorism can be a success without the United States winning the war in Iraq?)
US must win war in Iraq for success: 37%.
Can be a success without US winning war in Iraq: 57%.

Now check out the response to the same question in WaPo's poll four months ago, back in January:

US must win war in Iraq for success: 45%. Can be a success without US winning war in Iraq: 47%.

As you can see, over the past four months the percentage of respondents who think the US "must win" in Iraq for the sake of the broader "war on terror" dropped eight points. Meanwhile, the percentage who think victory is not necessary to it has gone up a surprising ten points. This is striking -- because in that four months or so since Dems took power in January the overriding message that the White House, the GOP and all of their lackeys and shills in the media have been blaring at the electorate in every conceivable forum is that (a) victory is absolutely essential in Iraq and failure is not an option lest America become less secure; and (b) leaving Iraq would constitute a catastrophic defeat in the broader war on terror.

In other words, not only is the central White House/GOP message failing to persuade, but fewer people buy it now since back when the GOP propaganda campaign geared up again in earnest, and significantly more people hold the opposite view. Simply put, the White House and GOP are losing the argument, if they haven't completely lost it already -- suggesting that on Iraq, their once-daunting ability to persuade, something that was jealously eyed by Dems after the 2004 losses and has been hailed by the media for far too long since, has been reduced at this point to little more than smoldering wreckage.

Relatedly, it should be noted that WaPo reporter Jonathan Weisman deserves credit for his piece today on the showdown between the White House and Congress. It leans heavily on WaPo's poll numbers to make the case that "Democrats appear to be standing on firm political ground" over Iraq.

A couple weeks back a bunch of us stamped our feet about another Weisman effort that said Republicans were "gleeful" about impending Dem overreach on Iraq and terror despite WaPo poll numbers that made this GOP "glee" unlikely indeed. One wants to believe that blogospheric criticism helps bring around pieces like today's, but who the hell knows. Either way, Weisman's effort today was a good one, with lots of that underrated commodity known as "empirical information."

Update: Commenter Glenn writes: "What I would like to believe here is that Weisman listened to the liberal blogospheric criticism, realized the validity of (at least some of) that criticism, and adjusted his reporting accordingly." Yep -- exactly what I meant, despite my clumsy "blogospheric pressure" formulation, and I've edited the above accordingly.

To visit the homepage of this blog, where you can see many more posts, click here.

-- Greg Sargent | Comments (504) | Post a Comment

COMMENTS:

Grammar police alert: That should be "fewer and fewer".

Posted by: Crust
Date: April 17, 2007 10:46 AM

thanks! I always flub that one. fixing

Posted by: Greg
Date: April 17, 2007 10:48 AM

Great post, BTW.

Posted by: Crust
Date: April 17, 2007 10:51 AM

thanks, appreciate it. and also appreciate all the comments...

Posted by: Greg
Date: April 17, 2007 10:53 AM

Or maybe Weisman just decided to do his job. For a change.

Posted by: Farinata X
Date: April 17, 2007 10:56 AM

The stronger the Democrats are, the more confident Americans will become that things can turn out okay. Basically, Americans are terrified that the Bush Administration will make things worse when it comes to Iraq, the war on terror, etc. They are rightly concerned that a half-assed effort by Dems to reign in the White House could backfire - leading to a more explosive, less predictable situation than we already find ourselves in. If Democrats can demonstrate that they can control the President, however, Americans would welcome an orderly withdrawal from Iraq. But Americans aren't foolish. Just because they'd prefer Congress to set the policy on Iraq, they realize that the Bush Administration still runs the show.

I think the main hesitancy people have when they think about Congress "cutting off the funds" flows from this distrust of the White House. Will Bush sabotage a withdrawal? Will the White House respond to de-funding in an irrational and dangerous manner? Will Bush create an international or domestic or constitutional crisis in order to avoid a withdrawal? In other words: can Democrats really pull it off without backing down or being crushed by the White House?

Clearly, Americans want Congress to step in - but they don't want half-measures. If Congress isn't strong enough to truly control the White House, they'd just as soon run out the clock until 2008. They don't want Congress playing chicken with the Administration if Congress is going to blink.

Posted by: owenz
Date: April 17, 2007 10:57 AM

My question is: "Who are these 35% who still don't get it?"

code: fear

Posted by: rmadilo
Date: April 17, 2007 10:58 AM

I think once you break that trust barrier you can never go back .... this poll seems to agree. I am not sure it isn't the effect of the aggregate of GOP lies coming to light.

Posted by: Bill
Date: April 17, 2007 10:59 AM

One wants to believe that blogospheric pressure helps bring around pieces like today's, but who the hell knows.

I think I'd say this slightly differently. I don't really want reporters responding to "blogospheric pressure," because then what they print becomes a question of which side can exert greater pressure, not the merits. What I would like to believe here is that Weisman listened to the liberal blogospheric criticism, realized the validity of (at least some of) that criticism, and adjusted his reporting accordingly.

Probably what you meant, I know, Greg, but I see this "responding to pressure" formulation enough that it concerns me. Reporters shouldn't respond to pressure if it's not based on valid arguments.

Posted by: Glenn
Date: April 17, 2007 11:01 AM

I'm not sure I would consider an almost even split as some great victory. It says a lot about the state of truth in this country that GWB and his minnions can manage a near 40% approval (in some polls) given the state of collapse their policies are in, and the consistency with which they have been caught lying. I would not rule out a turn around on this issue.

Posted by: dale
Date: April 17, 2007 11:02 AM

Nice post, Greg. I like Kevin Drum's take on things, also. He suggests that Bush talking about Iraq has the same effect as when he barnstormed about Social Security: every time he talks, he drives the popularity of his own ideas down. It's a small consolation, but the Democrats really do benefit by Bush still believing in all the ludicrous things he says.

Posted by: jfaberuiuc
Date: April 17, 2007 11:02 AM

I wonder what "win" means to people, especially those who say we must win, but really everybody. There has never been any clear description of the conditions needed to declare victory (I suspect because such would be very hard to describe). It could be that the change in the poll from 'need to win' to 'don't need to win' could be a shift to the reality that to win in any real and lasting sense, wold take an increased effort many, many more years, and might, even then turn out like the former yugoslavia after we left.

Posted by: jhm
Date: April 17, 2007 11:18 AM

It is becoming more and more clear that Iraq is an albatross around the administration's neck, and that Bush himself is the Republican party's biggest political liability.

Posted by: postxian
Date: April 17, 2007 11:23 AM

Bush himself is the Republican party's biggest political liability.

Exactly. And that's why I don't think you can rule out impeachment if GWB continues to get loonier. The Dems certainly have no reason to care one way or another, as long as they have the Congressional check on his powers. But the GOP must be very eager to get rid of him, and at some point that eagerness might exceed the political cost of repudiating one of their own.

I don't think it's likely, but it's not totally out of the question.

Posted by: Equal Opportunity Cynic
Date: April 17, 2007 11:53 AM

I didn't used to think this, but now it looks like a "win" in Iraq means we get the oil. The de-nationalization of the Iraqi oil sector and a new law providing for one-sided production sharing agreements with multinational oil companies seems to be the one benchmark that matters.

Posted by: rmwarnick
Date: April 17, 2007 12:02 PM

It's worth pointing out that polls like this - whatever the results - are mainly exercises in repeating the WH narrative that we are waging a "war on terror." I'd have trouble even responding to the poll question because not only do I not think the broader war on terror is winnable, I don't think it is really a war. See Hilary Benn's comments re dumping the phrase.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=585232007

Posted by: kingmidasinreverse
Date: April 17, 2007 12:02 PM

It doesn't matter what the American people think, Bush/Cheney are going to do what they want. They have done whatever they want since November 2000 when they stole the election. Cheney said it in so many words when he said to Tim Russert, "I'm not running for office", as if being a candidate was the only time a politician should be responsive to the public. Bush says he doesn't read the polls but Rove does, and when they're unfavorable, he inverts them.
Maybe the War Czar will be the way to Victory.
Right.

Posted by: jeffgee
Date: April 17, 2007 12:04 PM

Wait for the buscists to call it bad news for the Democrats, claiming that now "Bush's numbers can only go up and the Democrats' and Pelosi's only down".

It's the hallucination about Broder's surge.

Posted by: Gandhi
Date: April 17, 2007 12:08 PM

Great post and great comment by owenz.

I think Americans are afraid Bush will bungle a withdrawal as egregiously as he has bungled the occupation. I guess they even believe he might deliberately strand American troops in Iraq without weapons, ammo, fuel and provisions, rather than realistically use remaining funds to withdraw them, while refusing to sign the funding bill that would supply them, just so he can remain the sole "decider."

I'd like to observe that the popular narrative of the MSM is a ponderous thing. It was not easy to change its perspective on Iraq from that of the administration to that of administration critics. The MSM still lags behind the public in that they don't seem to grasp the gut level disgust that the majority of Americans now feel for Bush. Check out Free Republic if you don't believe that disillusionment is universal.

Bush is in trouble no matter what happens now, because it would be just as hard to change the MSM's popular narrative back to blind admiration for the president as it was to wean it away. As another poster asked, once the trust barrier is broken, can you go back? It would be a huge risk for the MSM to go back to cheerleading for Bush now, because "victory" in Iraq looks very unlikely and who knows what corrupt shoe will drop next in Congressional investigations?

Nope, I think Bush will find you can't unviolate that canine.

Posted by: cowalker
Date: April 17, 2007 12:16 PM

I don't know that I could answer that question--what --exactly--does "winning the war" look like?

Posted by: Mehitabel
Date: April 17, 2007 1:10 PM

If you wanna shut up Repubs tell them to come out from under the bed. We'll withdraw from Iraq. Redeploy to Kuwait, maybe Kurdistan, definately Afghansitan and send the rest of our soldiers home. We'll find and kill Bin Laden or better yet bring to him to real justice in a real court and legitimately try and convict him of his crimes for all the world to see. Old fashioned American justice used to be pretty good. Let's put it on TV worldwide.

Arabs will still sell oil. Iraqis will celebrate their "victory over the occupation" and eventually stop killing each other over it. Life will go on and we will go back to forming a more perfect union and being a good example for the rest of the world.

Posted by: markg8
Date: April 17, 2007 1:20 PM

Not surprising results if one knows much about the mechanisms people use to avoid cognitive dissonance. Most of the public has concluded that the war in Iraq is un-winnable at least by the current administration. Given the still strong sentiment to "win" the "War on Terror," the simplest form of mental gymnastics is to separate the two issues.

For the 37% that remain continue to see a connection, I suspect the approval percentage for the Bush administration is over 90%. There's an old rule of thumb in public opinion research: 15% of the public is simply nuts and for one reason or another will resist a consensus reached by everyone else.

If that is true, it means that Bush's support (and that for the war) is a bit over 20%. My guess is that this is the hard core of the Republican Party base, unmovable until GWB is gone.

Posted by: jsh1120
Date: April 17, 2007 1:22 PM

Now lets see if the Democratic Congress has the cajones to stand up to Bush. Or was Cheeeny right. I have my doubts about the ability of alot of Democrats to see the bigger issue past "cut the war funding NOW" bunch. They are the looney left that will undermine rational thinking. I hope they prove me wrong.

Maybe they will not "KEEP" undermining Pelosi.

Posted by: Jason
Date: April 17, 2007 1:29 PM

Jason,
what the *hell* are you talking about?

Posted by: captain goto
Date: April 17, 2007 2:13 PM

Bush has 2 main argument: 1) Losing will create a haven for terrorists; and 2) We fight them there so we don't fight them here.

The two points are completely contradictory. If we "win", the haven is destroyed and we won't fight them there. Winning will move the fight HERE. By exiting immediately will leave the haven intact and the fight stays over there.

Posted by: John in Colorado
Date: April 17, 2007 3:07 PM

John,

Uh, no. Terrorism won't be relegated to Iraq whether we "win" or "lose". All it takes is a few dedicated whack jobs to pull off an attack - like the 7/7 attacks in London, for instance.

As for the original post, I find the question somewhat disingenuous. Do people really expect that America can win a "war on terror"? I feel forced to quote Get Your War On:

"Remember when the US had a drug problem and it declared a War on Drugs and now you can't buy drugs any more? It'll be just like that!"

Posted by: ihateemo
Date: April 17, 2007 3:44 PM

We will have "won" when the last GI has left Iraq. We were Big Lied into unleashing this war, and betrayed ourselves in waging it. The same scenario unfolded 40 odd years ago in Southeast Asia. Doubtless that bitter, living memory has contributed to the cascading reality check of the heretofore steadfast supporters of the Iraq tragedy. Can't fool all the people all the time..

Posted by: Dduck
Date: April 17, 2007 4:07 PM

You and Josh are focusing on the anti-Bush, pro-Pelosi part of this survey, ignoring that Pelosi's numbers probably come from the questions about who's showing stronger leadership, which clearly favors the Democrats (just read the newspapers). But when it comes to substance, a close look at this survey tells a very different story about opinion of the Democrats (as well as Republicans):

8. For each item I name, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling that issue. First is (ITEM). How about (NEXT ITEM)?
4/15/07 - Summary Table*
Approve Disapprove No opinion
a. The situation in Iraq 37 62 1
b. The economy 46 51 4
c. The US campaign against terrorism 51 47 2
d. Ethics in government 45 50 5
e. Immigration issues 34 60 7
*Full sample asked item a, half sample asked items b,c other half sample asked items d,e.

Posted by: romat
Date: April 17, 2007 4:43 PM

Romat is more accurate here I'm afraid. My sense is the Democrats in Congress just don't have an effective spokesperson. Reid and Pelosi have a hard time standing up to Bush and the Lie Machine. For all the talk about people wanting "non-partisan" behavior from politicians, it just doesn't work. You can't put on the 16- ounce gloves and dance around jabbing at this administration when they are perfectly willing to hit you over the head with a pipe wrench after the bell. I wish I could see democracy breaking out in this country like many of you. Hell....I'd like to see democracy break out in the Democratic Party....but as a progressive I've just been disappointed too many times.

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