Gallup Poll: Democrats Are The "National Security Party," Now Lead GOP On Terror
September 25, 2007 -- 1:51 PM EST // //
As all you regulars know, for months now pundits have hung on to the notion that the GOP still holds an advantage on national security issues, despite the fact that multiple polls have shown that this traditional GOP edge has been all but wiped out.
Now, however, Gallup has released a poll concluding that for the first time in its polling, Dems have a clear advantage on the issue:
The chart paints a pretty stark picture of the GOP implosion on terrorism and national security in the last five years. Recall that 2002 was the year when Karl Rove gave his infamous speech saying the GOP could take the national security issue "to the country." Chickenhawk Saxby Chambliss ran ads tying triple-amputee vet Max Cleland to Osama. The GOP attacks on Dems over terrorism got so bad that Tom Daschle erupted on the Senate floor. And Dems sustained more bloodletting at the ballot box on the issue.
Five years and thousands of deaths in Iraq later, the lines have crossed and for the first time in Gallup polling, Dems lead the GOP on the issue, 47%-42%. While that's within the poll's margin of error, Gallup views this development as so significant that it's now describing Dems as the "national security party." As Gallup points out, in 2002 the GOP had an extraordinary 19-point lead over Dems. The next year Bush strutted around on the aircraft carrier and the GOP held a 15-point advantage. Now all that's evaporated and been replaced by a Dem lead.
The question now is, How long before this extraordinary swing enters the conventional pundit narrative? Turning around pundit wisdom is tougher than turning an aircraft carrier, and if Rudy is the GOP nominee, the pundits will all shout in unison that Rudy's the GOP's savior on the issue. Indeed, Rudy's presence in the general election, fairly or not, could blur Dem gains in this department. But if the GOP nominee's anyone other than Rudy, and the GOP keeps clinging to the wreckage of a war that large numbers now say is detrimental to our national security, the Dem advantage could become too glaring for even the pundits to ignore.
This is going to sound optimistic to the point of absurdity. But the sight of Sunday chatters in 2008 describing the Democratic advantage on the issue -- after the GOP's decades-long edge -- would be the perfect political epilogue to the failed Bush-Rove fear-mongering era, the disastrous war it wrought, and the catastrophe it all wreaked on their party and our country.
Update: A key point from Chris Bowers: "I have a question for liberal hawks: during the time when Democrats gained on, and eventually overtook, Republicans on national security, did Democrats become more hawkish? As I remember it, during these five years Democrats have gradually and greatly increased their opposition to things like the Iraq war, FISA and the Patriot Act. Even though we are still losing votes on those issues, we are doing a lot better than we were a few years ago."