I don't the know the history behind the Soviet reasoning to invade Afghanistan in 1979, but it must be fair to assume that the Soviet people were not told the whole truth, and it is highly dubious that Afghanistan posed any kind of real threat to Moscow. What is clear however, is that once the Soviets were in Afghanistan, the chronology is worryingly familiar.

The Soviet plan was to put in place a system of government that resembled their own. The Soviet military would remain in the country until the Afghan regime could support its own security infrastructure, although there was an expectation that the Soviets would want to keep some kind of permanent military presence there.

Though the Soviets enjoyed a rapid and easy victory over the Afghan government it ousted, the occupation soon ran into difficulties. Omar Azam and his Afghan nationalists mobilized the nucleus of the resistance, and the likes of Bin Laden and Zawahiri joined the mujahideen with their band of Islamic extremists who had been released from Middle Eastern jails in the full knowledge they'd launch themselves at the opportunity to fight the infidel. And so began the the now legendary resistance movement against the Soviet occupation.

When the reality of the Afghan occupation became apparent to the Soviet people, and Gorbachev's government realized the plan was doomed to fail, the exit strategy from the Soviet perspective was focused on ensuring Afghanistan would not become a failed state.

The Reaganites, led by Richard Perle, rebuffed any and all Soviet calls for international help in stabilizing Afghanistan. On live TV, Perle now infamously declared that Afghanistan would take care of itself once the Soviets had left, while the Russian envoy pointedly argued that the jihadists were nothing but trouble and the international community would do well to prevent them getting a toe-hold in Afghanistan.

Well, the Soviets withdrew, and no-one filled the vacuum. Omar Azam was assassinated by the jihadists, and ultimately in a failed state, the Afghan platform for Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda was built.

So how does Soviet Afghanistan compare with Iraq?

- Plan for Iraqi system of governance created in our own image - check;
- We occupy until the Iraqis can take care of themselves - check;
- We stay forever in our permanent bases - check;
- Insurgency is a combination of nationalists (Sunnis) and foreign jihadists (led by Zarqawi) - check;
- American public now realize we are in trouble - check;
- Political leadership realises we are in trouble - check;
- Avoidance of a failed state is now the priority - check.

Which brings us to the essential question... How do we extricate ourselves from Iraq? Or in other words, how do we break the Afghan parallel?

The answer to me is clear - we have to admit we have a Soviet Afghanistan redux, and we need international co-operation and help to prevent a complete breakdown of the Iraqi state. This solution would of course require contrition and humility from the Bushies, as their standing on the global stage is hardly favorable. But if anything good is to come out of Iraq - as much for Iraqis as ourselves - we've got to switch to a multilateral agenda, and preventing a failed state a la Afghanistan post-Soviet occupation is surely something the whole world can agree on.