Kinsley Goes Squirly On Health Care
Wow. So Michael Kinsley sat down last night, fired up his sardonic-left-wing-rhetoric generator, and let fly with a Slate column on health care that...makes no sense at all, as far as I can tell. For some reason, he's against single-payer health insurance. Here is his explanation of why single-payer is a bad idea:
What's different about health insurance is the opposite: Much of it isn't insurance at all but a subsidy. The value of the subsidy is the difference between what the individual pays and what the insurance would cost in the free market. If people were buying health care or insurance with their own money, they might or might not spend too much—whatever "too much" is—but no one else would need to care if they did.
A subsidy has to take from someone and give to someone else. Everybody can't subsidize everybody. Or, to put it another way, society cannot give the average citizen better health care than the average citizen would choose to buy on his or her own. And this is what people want.
I don't really understand what Kinsley is trying to say here, but I'm pretty sure it's totally wrong. And baffling. This construct of the "average citizen" whose decisions to buy health care "on his or her own" must, axiomatically, equal the total health care purchased by the polity, divided by the number of citizens... This just seems like complete nonsense. If every American were required to buy, say, national defense individually, how many nuclear-powered aircraft carriers would result? Zero, obviously. (Unless maybe Rupert Murdoch decided to really go on a binge.)
As for the distinction between "insurance" and "subsidies"...this is a totally bizarre distinction. Insurance, obviously, is a subsidy: it is the subsidy of the unlucky by the lucky. We do it because 1. none of us are entirely sure that we or our children won't wind up unlucky, and 2. societies which treat all of their citizens AS IF they might just as easily have been lucky as unlucky, end up with happier and more productive citizens, and are simply better places to live. Anyway, what people want to get through single-payer isn't better CARE than the average citizen would choose to buy on his or her own; it's better COVERAGE. And that is easily attainable - in fact, the simple fact that it is universal renders it in that crucial sense superior to any individually purchased coverage, because it is guaranteed, regardless of whether you lose your job or become impoverished.
This isn't a zero-sum game; changing the system changes the whole landscape of available assets. Just like anything else in economics. But especially in health care. To give one example: Kinsley worries about more people wanting access to $100,000-dollar-a-year pills. But with most pills, doubling the number of people taking them makes it possible to cut the cost of the medication drastically, because the additional production cost of an extra dose is often negligible. The expenses are all for the overhead. In fact, after paying off initial capital costs, the price of the pills might drop to $100; so the more people we insure and treat, the faster we can start saving money. Kinsley's whole reductive way of thinking about these problems is ridiculous - if I understand him at all, which I'm not confident I do, because it's such a weirdly written piece.
I have a feeling I've seen Kinsley do this before - try to look at some complicated economic problem through the college-sophomore lens of adding up all the assets, dividing them out, and positing that whatever comes out must equal what goes in. Of course, real economic and social problems are vastly more complicated than that; what comes out almost never adds up to what went in. But what a totally weird thing for him to write - and at this moment...?





Likewise I had trouble following his reasoning. Usually I find him clear.
Matt Yglesias made the point which seems to take much of the air out of the point Kinsley seems to be making: that efficiency gains would enable us to buy our way out of many (Matt says most) of the problems of existing single payer systems such as Britain and Canada http://www.tpmcafe.com/node/27626 if the political decision is made to plow some of the savings back into addressing those problems. (Matt: "The problems -- quite real ones -- with both the Canadian and British systems could overwhelmingly be addressed by simply throwing money at the problem.")
No HC proposal, however, would permit the payer, whether it's the government or private insurers, to say "yes" all of the time. That's not reality. And whomever it is that has to say "no" is going to meet with disfavor. That is reality.
March 17, 2006 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I assumed that Kingsly meant that while not everyone will have a car accident and thus need to use their car insurance everyone will ultimately need health care, health insurance and a relatively few use a huge proportion of the healthcare dollar.
What makes this debate different than most other issues is the presumption is that everyone should have adequate, however defined, healthcare. In order for this goal to be reached the young and the healthy have to pay into the system, this may be the subsidy that Kingsley was talking about, and the ill and the elderly have to be covered.
In any system in which virtually all are to recieve service, the mail, fixed rail there is going to need to be either various pricing or a subsidy.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
March 17, 2006 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel:
Your explication of what Kinsley was trying to say sounds right to me--or at least it sounds as plausible as any other interpretation I'm able to think of.
If so, then accepting the point brooksfoe makes that all insurance is a subsidy, I am left wondering what the significance of that point is to the health care debate for Kinsley. Yes, the young and the healthy, by paying in, would end up subsidizing the less healthy. They still obtain from it assured protection from risk which is not tied to their place of employment or the vicissitudes of health care economics. Which is hardly nothing.
March 17, 2006 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure this helps -- Kinsley's making my brain hurt -- but I do think we should distinguish between the very minor subsidization which occurs among insureds in other risk pools (accident, fire, casualty, etc.) and the massive subsidization involved in health care "insurance."
Yes; you may drive a bit more cautiously than I and may be a better driver over all, but the risk factuals in our particular pool (tickets, age, prior accidents, gender, type of vehicle, etc.) are so similar that there isn't much subsidization going on.
Single-payer health care (which assumes society-wide funding) presents massive subsidization and very, very little benefit to the subsidizers. Or, as Kinsley points out, a large number of potential insureds -- I'm guessing anyone under age 60 even those with children -- could insure themselves as members of that particular pool much more cheaply than if they were a member of the complete society-wide pool.
Kinsley's point seems to be that as soon as you admit that your dealing not with insurance but rather with subsidization, then, you must face rationing as the sole remaining cost control measure.
March 17, 2006 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen, you wrote: "Or, as Kinsley points out, a large number of potential insureds -- I'm guessing anyone under age 60 even those with children -- could insure themselves as members of that particular pool much more cheaply than if they were a member of the complete society-wide pool."
Common sense would suggest that if most people perceive that under a given UHC proposal they would end up paying more for coverage no better or worse, that proposal isn't going anywhere and probably shouldn't go anywhere. I'd like to see the pertinent assumptions on which various comparative cost analyses of alternative UHC proposals have been done. I understand the Congressional Budget Office and General Accounting Office are among the many reputable organizations which have compared single payer with other kinds of proposals and shown large savings from the former. But I've not read them to this point.
Playing devil's advocate on the auto insurance analogy, probably the vast majority of people who have auto insurance don't file any claims in a given year. But the vast majority of people probably have some need to use the health care system in a given year, even if all they need is a prescription a few times a year. And the consequences of having no insurance can be at least as devastating as with having no auto insurance, if not more so.
Yet states have been successfully able to mandate that everybody has to have auto insurance. Even though, if there were no such mandate, at least some would choose not to get any, and perhaps many of these folks would come out ahead. This suggests a somewhat more hopeful assessment of whether government might successfully be able to mandate that everyone buy health insurance.
Hope I'm not making your head hurt even worse. :<)
March 17, 2006 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two aspirins later --
While it is true that "the vast majority of people who have auto insurance don't file any claims in a given year," the risk that any one member of that particular limited (and they're always limited) risk pool will do so is virtually identical for all members. Thus, the members who don't file that year aren't subsidizing the member who does.
And while states may mandate universal auto insurance (at some minimal level), they still allow carriers to discriminate risk, to add benefits, and to charge different premiums based on assumed risk. And my understanding of single-payer health care insurance is that it wouldn't make those discriminations.
A 30 year old's health risk is so much less than an 80 year old's that no sound insurance scheme would place them in the same risk pool ("Subsidization" by society of the 80 year old's costs may be a good thing, but let's not call it insurance).
March 17, 2006 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another of Kinsley's points is that there are two different groups of "insureds": 1) those who need the insurance because without it they couldn't pay for health care and presumably, might not obtain it and 2) those who can afford to pay for their health care but might have to expend all or a portion of their assets to do so. It's the latter group that Kinsley thinks should be put on a "real" insurance program.
He says that the "better-off" or better-insured" should have their subsidies eliminated -- presumably, employer and employee income tax based subsidies?
Is that what he's saying? And if so, would Medicare be preserved as a benefit for group #2 as it is today? or be turned into a poor people's program?
March 17, 2006 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink