I Went Back to Ohio, and My Electability Was Gone
I prepared this look at the pledged delegate landscape before this Times article appeared, about an hour ago:
For Clinton, Ohio and Texas Emerge as Key States to Win
I agree. If Obama runs the table tomorrow and in HI and WI on Feb. 19, even if Clinton wins TX by 20 points, but loses OH by, say, 4 points, her future looks grim.
Let's look at the landscape:
Today, Obama's pledged delegate lead is +86. (Bowers)
Tomorrow, it will be, conservatively, +110.
(Constituent Dynamics puts his pickup tomorrow at +32, for a +118 lead.)
With a win in HI (+5) and WI (+10), it will be +125.
MARCH 4
Obama will win VT and keep RI close. Call it a -2.
TX: a 60%-40% win probably won't bring an expected 116-77 split, because the district math doesn't favor Clinton. So let's speculate that she gets a 106-87 split, or +29.
OH: if Obama wins here by a close margin, say 52%-48%, he'll get a 74-67 split, or +7.
So 31-7= +24 for Clinton on March 4. Bringing Obama's lead down to +101.
At that time some superdelegates could choose to endorse on both sides, but Obama seems to be closing that gap, and will probably come close to tieing that score up.
MARCH 8 + 11
Obama likely wins WY (+4) and MS (+11), adding 15 to his total for +116.
So at that point, what's the likely pledged delegate landscape after March 11?
Do the DNC and all the other superdelegates WANT this thing to drag on 6 long, empty weeks?
(Will there be FL and MI do-overs in this space?)
Given that the numbers from PA to the end don't look good for Clinton (PA, KY, and PR are her best bets out of 9 contests), I'm not sure they will want it to drag on.
APRIL 22
A 60%-40% win in PA produces a 95-63 pledged delegate split-- +32 pickup for Clinton.
Bringing Obama's lead down to +84.
FINAL STRETCH
Then there are 8 final contests: IN NC WV OR KY SD MT PR.
With unlikely 70%-30% wins in both KY and PR, she could pick up a +45.
But +35 is much more realistic.
However, Obama could pick up +21 with a 58%-42% win in NC alone.
So 35 - 21 gives Clinton a pickup of +14. Bringing Obama's lead down to +60.
But Obama will probably also win OR(+6) , SD(+5), and MT(+5). And he'll keep it close in IN(-8) and WV(-8). Tallying those (conservative) wins for Obama and (generous) wins for Clinton, you get a total wash: 0 delegate movement.
So if Clinton wins Texas comfortably but loses Ohio by just 4 points, Obama ends the primary season with at least 60 more pledged delegates. A substantial amount. And with a win in IN and/or closer losses elsewhere, his lead increases.
And with a narrower TX win by Clinton, it gets even worse for her.
With that outlook, I'd say that March 5 will begin the Pressure Primary, which Obama will eventually win, with the help of superdelegates and the media.
As always this year, the wild cards are FL and MI. But I just don't see any way the delegations those two state parties are currently assembling will be allowed to count in the delegate math BEFORE a nominee is chosen. If one or both hold new caucuses in April, then they will of course be added to the totals. But in that case, Obama has a great chance of keeping those delegate splits very close.
-AL
For Clinton, Ohio and Texas Emerge as Key States to Win
“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one Democratic superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.
I agree. If Obama runs the table tomorrow and in HI and WI on Feb. 19, even if Clinton wins TX by 20 points, but loses OH by, say, 4 points, her future looks grim.
Let's look at the landscape:
Today, Obama's pledged delegate lead is +86. (Bowers)
Tomorrow, it will be, conservatively, +110.
(Constituent Dynamics puts his pickup tomorrow at +32, for a +118 lead.)
With a win in HI (+5) and WI (+10), it will be +125.
MARCH 4
Obama will win VT and keep RI close. Call it a -2.
TX: a 60%-40% win probably won't bring an expected 116-77 split, because the district math doesn't favor Clinton. So let's speculate that she gets a 106-87 split, or +29.
OH: if Obama wins here by a close margin, say 52%-48%, he'll get a 74-67 split, or +7.
So 31-7= +24 for Clinton on March 4. Bringing Obama's lead down to +101.
At that time some superdelegates could choose to endorse on both sides, but Obama seems to be closing that gap, and will probably come close to tieing that score up.
MARCH 8 + 11
Obama likely wins WY (+4) and MS (+11), adding 15 to his total for +116.
So at that point, what's the likely pledged delegate landscape after March 11?
Do the DNC and all the other superdelegates WANT this thing to drag on 6 long, empty weeks?
(Will there be FL and MI do-overs in this space?)
Given that the numbers from PA to the end don't look good for Clinton (PA, KY, and PR are her best bets out of 9 contests), I'm not sure they will want it to drag on.
APRIL 22
A 60%-40% win in PA produces a 95-63 pledged delegate split-- +32 pickup for Clinton.
Bringing Obama's lead down to +84.
FINAL STRETCH
Then there are 8 final contests: IN NC WV OR KY SD MT PR.
With unlikely 70%-30% wins in both KY and PR, she could pick up a +45.
But +35 is much more realistic.
However, Obama could pick up +21 with a 58%-42% win in NC alone.
So 35 - 21 gives Clinton a pickup of +14. Bringing Obama's lead down to +60.
But Obama will probably also win OR(+6) , SD(+5), and MT(+5). And he'll keep it close in IN(-8) and WV(-8). Tallying those (conservative) wins for Obama and (generous) wins for Clinton, you get a total wash: 0 delegate movement.
So if Clinton wins Texas comfortably but loses Ohio by just 4 points, Obama ends the primary season with at least 60 more pledged delegates. A substantial amount. And with a win in IN and/or closer losses elsewhere, his lead increases.
And with a narrower TX win by Clinton, it gets even worse for her.
With that outlook, I'd say that March 5 will begin the Pressure Primary, which Obama will eventually win, with the help of superdelegates and the media.
As always this year, the wild cards are FL and MI. But I just don't see any way the delegations those two state parties are currently assembling will be allowed to count in the delegate math BEFORE a nominee is chosen. If one or both hold new caucuses in April, then they will of course be added to the totals. But in that case, Obama has a great chance of keeping those delegate splits very close.
-AL
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Whoa, I screwed up on one set of numbers (at least):
this part...
So 35 - 21 gives Clinton a pickup of +14. Bringing Obama's lead down to +60.
should read +70.
By the end Obama will have at least 70 more pledged delegates, if this scenario plays out.
February 11, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with you about the post OH+TX analysis and it's pretty clear to me that however you slice it, Obama will be ahead on pledged delegates at the end of voting (barring a dramatic reversal of some sort).
What this made me realize is that even if Obama loses both Texas and Ohio, the picture doesn't really change that much. He will still have significantly more pledged delegates at the end.
The reason why OH+TX matter so much is because Dean wants to stop this fight sometime in March or April, and anything short of a clear win for Hillary on March 4 would probably have Dean applying concerted pressure on the superdelegates to call it for Obama. That's why OH+TX actually matter more than just the raw delegate count.
February 12, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Clinton will win Penn. and texas with 15 points, and maybe a draw in ohio, so that will make her the candidate.
This might be the point where the Dems lose it because McCain will do nothing, and say even less, and look more and more presidential, by letting others spout Hillary hate.
I hope not, because on the issues, Hillary would be the best, but I fear it would be McCain then.
Americans, especially those from the right, are too easily duped, conned, tricked!!!
February 12, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
lump1: yes, you're right, I think he will still be ahead if he loses both TX and OH. But the losses and the size of them will change the narrative, and more important, it will make it very difficult to sway the superdelegates to his side. He will definitely not concede with a pledged delegate lead, but it would decrease his chances down the road.
February 12, 2008 1:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you assume an Obama 4 point win in Ohio? A poll from two days ago has him down 17 points.
I agree with plenty of the math here, but if he loses Ohio by 10 or 15 points, which seems completely possible to me, then his lead is gonna take a substantial hit.
Personally, I think if he wins any one of Texas, Ohio, or PA then he pretty much is guaranteed the nomination. If he loses all three, he could still get it, but he'd have to keep the margins nice and close.
February 13, 2008 4:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wasn't assuming it, I was just exploring a scenario that IF it happened, she'd be in trouble. same goes for TX.
This was the night before the new OH poll. She may well keep a healthy lead there. But he does have a better outlook than most people realize, with 5 huge college campuses throughout the state. And now with his inroads into Clinton's entire base in VA last night, OH looks a lot different today.
I agree that if he wins any one of those 3, he's very likely to wrap it up.
February 13, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink