John Edwards? Who Cares?
Apparently, the Clinton and Obama campaigns are meeting with John Edwards attempting to secure an endorsement.
At this point however, a simple question needs to be asked. Namely, Who cares who John Edwards endorses?
I am sure that everyone who actively follows politics, reads political blogs, or is otherwise involved in the political world cares about that endorsement. It remains to be seen if anyone outside of that relatively limited group cares. What votes is an Edwards endorsement for Obama going to pull? I don't know if I am remembering this correctly, but didn't the SEIU in Washington pull their endorsement from Edwards and give it to Obama before the Washington caucuses? If that is the case, meaning if Edwards supporters are endorsing Obama, or Clinton for that matter, before Edwards issues an endorsement, doesn't that cheapen his endorsement?
It seems to me that candidates have a limited time after they drop out of a race, maybe only a couple of days, in which their endorsement actually matters. On the one hand, a dropped out candidates former supporters more than likely will move on to another candidate rapidly, which is what I alluded to above. On the other hand, the news narrative dramatically shifts away from the dropped out candidate to the other two candidates. At the point the news narrative shifts, the dropped out candidate ceases to matter. Consequently, I would hypothesize that an Edwards endorsement is next to useless at this point because 1) his organizational supporters have moved on to other candidates and 2) it has been at least a 1 week news cycle narrative in which he wasn't involved.
The only problem is that "next to useless" is still useful in such a close race as exists for the Democratic nomination. Using the framework from Timothy Noah on Slate, of Momentucrats versus Arithmecrats, one can see how an Edwards endorsement would matter. For the Momentucrats, the endorsement matters because it would appear that the candidate who secures the endorsement would be gaining momentum. From this perspective it is imperative for Obama to get the endorsement to add to 2 weeks of victories. For Clinton, an Edwards endorsement breaks up Obama's "momentum" such as it may be. From the Arithmecratic perspective, every little bit helps in future contests, and any amount of voters that an Edwards endorsement brings is worth seeking that endorsement for both the remaining campaigns. As a caveat, I really don't know what happens to Edwards' pledged delegates under the Party rules at this point.
At this point however, a simple question needs to be asked. Namely, Who cares who John Edwards endorses?
I am sure that everyone who actively follows politics, reads political blogs, or is otherwise involved in the political world cares about that endorsement. It remains to be seen if anyone outside of that relatively limited group cares. What votes is an Edwards endorsement for Obama going to pull? I don't know if I am remembering this correctly, but didn't the SEIU in Washington pull their endorsement from Edwards and give it to Obama before the Washington caucuses? If that is the case, meaning if Edwards supporters are endorsing Obama, or Clinton for that matter, before Edwards issues an endorsement, doesn't that cheapen his endorsement?
It seems to me that candidates have a limited time after they drop out of a race, maybe only a couple of days, in which their endorsement actually matters. On the one hand, a dropped out candidates former supporters more than likely will move on to another candidate rapidly, which is what I alluded to above. On the other hand, the news narrative dramatically shifts away from the dropped out candidate to the other two candidates. At the point the news narrative shifts, the dropped out candidate ceases to matter. Consequently, I would hypothesize that an Edwards endorsement is next to useless at this point because 1) his organizational supporters have moved on to other candidates and 2) it has been at least a 1 week news cycle narrative in which he wasn't involved.
The only problem is that "next to useless" is still useful in such a close race as exists for the Democratic nomination. Using the framework from Timothy Noah on Slate, of Momentucrats versus Arithmecrats, one can see how an Edwards endorsement would matter. For the Momentucrats, the endorsement matters because it would appear that the candidate who secures the endorsement would be gaining momentum. From this perspective it is imperative for Obama to get the endorsement to add to 2 weeks of victories. For Clinton, an Edwards endorsement breaks up Obama's "momentum" such as it may be. From the Arithmecratic perspective, every little bit helps in future contests, and any amount of voters that an Edwards endorsement brings is worth seeking that endorsement for both the remaining campaigns. As a caveat, I really don't know what happens to Edwards' pledged delegates under the Party rules at this point.
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