Arkansas: Clinton 69%, Obama 27% (Primary) 6 electoral votes
Colorado: Obama 67%, Clinton 32% (Caucuses) 9 electoral votes
Florida*: Clinton 50%, Obama 33% (Primary) 27 electoral votes
Indiana: May 6th (Primary) 11 electoral votes
Iowa: Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29% (Caucuses) 7 electoral votes
Kentucky: May 20th (Primary) 8 electoral votes
Michigan*: Clinton 55%, Uncommitted 40% (Primary) 17 electoral votes
Minnesota: Obama 51%, Clinton 27% (Caucuses) 10 electoral votes
Missouri: Obama 49%, Clinton 48% (Primary) 11 electoral votes
Nevada: Clinton 51%, Obama 45% (Caucuses) 5 electoral votes
New Hampshire: Clinton 39%, Obama 37% (Primary) 4 electoral votes
New Mexico: Obama 49%, Clinton 48% (Primary) 5 electoral votes
Ohio: Mar 4th (Primary) 20 electoral votes
Oregon: May 20th (Primary) 7 electoral votes
Pennsylvania: Apr 22nd (Primary) 21 electoral votes
Tennesse: Clinton 54%, Obama 41% (Primary) 11 electoral votes
Virginia: Feb 12th (Primary) 13 electoral votes
West Virginia: May 13th (Primary) 5 electoral votes
Wisconsin: Feb 19th (Primary) 10 electoral votes

* = uncontested primaries (i.e. the candidates didn't campaign)

Thought I would add some facts to the debate. What I was looking for was indication that one candidate would do much better than another candidate in any of the swing states. In most cases I would expect a lot of the supporters of one candidate to support the other candidate if they get the nomination. Only when one candidate has a lot more support than the other did I consider it significant.

So based on results so far and a lot of conjecture on my part I would guess that Clinton has a legitimate advantage in Arkansas and possibly Florida. I'm a bit dubious about the results from Florida though as the candidates didn't campaign there but the demographics suggest the advantage might be real. Obama may have an advantage in Iowa, Minnesota and Colorado.

Eight states haven't selected delegates yet but if I had to guess I think Wisconsin and Oregon might also end up on the Obama list. That would give Clinton 33 electoral votes where I think she might have an edge and Obama 43.

I also happen to think that Obama might have an advantage in some of the other swing states like Nevada where Obama reaches outside traditional democratic voters for some of his support. However, the evidence for those kinds of judgements is even more circumstantial.

I don't think one candidate is overwhelmingly better positioned for the national election but it will be an interesting angle to follow going forward.