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The Case Against Obama


Let's look at this rationally, and examine the positions advanced by the Clinton camp to explain why their candidate is superior when it comes to running against a Republican and will make a better president.

1. Obama is not fully vetted - this is the classic political game of taking your worst liability and turning it into a supposed strength.  There are dozens of scandals that have managed to variously ensnare the Clintons over the years; any and all of them are fair game in the general.  Small groups of kooks will be enshrined and given the veneer of authenticity -- fake grassroots organizations with web sites, and "concerned citizen" surrogates on YouTube, blog plants, all covered by national press and brought to youby the same people who cooked up Swift Boat Vets for Truth.  That too was an old story, and thoroughly debunked, but was resuscitated and vomited up for the voting public with "new and improved" facts.  You think that McCain, using ex-Bush campaign staff, can't or won't find people to put a new spin on an old story?  New stories are easier for the candidate to dismiss and frequently fail to gain traction - the Bush DUI and story did not torpedo his chances at being elected and the cocaine use story disappeared after the thinnest dismissal.  It's all about how the dirt fits into the narrative of the moment, irrespective of its vintage, and the hachet men for the GOP are better storytellers than those working for the DNC or any Democratic campaign.  With a limited number of fronts on which to assert control of the media cycle, Obama has an edge compared to Clinton, who will have to defend heself against not only the gammut of recycled attacks, but also against newly-minted issues, like Bill's trip to Kazakhstan.  It also doesn't hurt that most of the purported Obama dirt revolves around adherence to religion and association with religious figures.  I think questioning faith is a gigantic turn-off for most voters that the GOP would want to target and any attempt to create a de novo lunatic fringe based on the Muslim allegation will be pathetically transparent.

2. Hillary's wins in big states portend greater strength in the general election - as has oft been cited, Clinton's support will largely become Obama's support if he is the nominee because the Clintons will be helping him to get elected.  The big states that Hillary has taken are pretty reliable in their tint on election night.  There is no particular benefit to "winning the crap out of NY" as opposed to "carrying NY."  A corollary to this is Clinton's reliable support among women, older voters and middle-income voters -- these will also flow to the eventual nominee.  While some demographic segments might be slightly more at risk (e.g., Latinos), there are certainly many ways that this can be addressed by smart campaigning that illustrates that votes for a Republican are votes against self-interest.

3. Obama's wins in red states don't matter because he won't win them in the general - against McCain, Obama draws greater support from Independents and moderates.  The far left and youth vote will not turn out in the same numbers for Clinton as for Obama, and the stalwart conservatives will stay home in higher numbers in a McCain / Obama race (see next).  Clinton supporters seem to be to be perpetual victims of conventional wisdom, navigating the car using only the rear-view mirror and the reassurances of the radio announcer.  If you think bloodsport for the middle is the only possible outcome for this race, then you're asking for a future president Clinton to govern on a mandate that's just as narrow as that we have enjoyed for well over a decade.  That's no way to recruit partners for the advancement of this country and its people if your election is the bitter fruit of an acrimonious 51/49 cage match.  That script ends with tragi-comic paroxysms of failed legislation and wasted detente followed swiftly by heavy Dem losses in both houses of Congress.  To avoid this, a ticket with appeal to a broader demographic and political spectrum is an absolute requirement.

4. Republicans fear running against Clinton - if you've been listening to AM radio at all over the past eight years, you've been treated to the "Socialist Hillary" schtick pretty regularly.  She's a very popular  -- and profitable --punching bag for the right, and she will amplify arch-conservative turnout in any election that features a Republican.  This is electoral college gold for McCain, who will be unable to close the sale with conservatives despite the laughable backpedalling by the likes of Limbaugh, Hannity, and Coulter in recent days.  The Venn diagram of the spontaneous voter support for McCain and Clinton has a lot of overlap, and higher conservative turnout could easily tip the balance, much as we saw in '04, when they actually liked the candidate.  The AM dial has been featuring increasing amounts of anti-Obama rhetoric since Tuesday -- wonder why the Dittoheads and Hannitards might want to handicap him now?

5. Lacks the "Co-president Bill" / "Her own presidency" dichotomy - Hillary likes to cut this both ways, relying on Bill's record in the '90s to bolster her own resume, while distancing herself whenever the discussion wanders too close to some (perceived) negative involving Bill personally or politically.  She's been deft at parrying most observations on this contradiction, but she won't be able to squirm free of this double standard in debates with McCain.  We've all been reminded that Bill only won with voter support in the mid / upper 40s, and this provides no assurances that the same machine will be able to prevail without a third candidate to dilute the Republican vote.

6. Not "ready on day one" - look, every president elect spends November to January assembling staff and being briefed by pertinent officials.  Much will have changed since 2001, except the shredders in the Justice Dept. and Pentagon will likely be burned out from overuse next January.  Nobody's ready on day one to resolve a war except someone who's done it before and nobody will traipse into the oval office and immediately transmit a universal health care plan to Congress and see it pass the same day.  As much as she might "be her own president,"  Hillary would spend the early days learning who that president is and how to be effective in that role and capitalize on working relationships.  It would be the same for BHO.  Any assertion to the contrary is entirely reliant on #5 above, and therefore a fallacy.  Recent events further underscore the open question regarding relative competency in the present tense: is she ready to campaign on month twelve?

7. Obama, the "empty vessel" - for some reason, lack of access to the national Democratic apparatus precludes the possibility of "accomplishing" anything, or so Clinton surrogates would have me believe.  Try this: minority youth from broken home puts self through college and law school, becomes civil rights attorney and community organizer along the way.  Do we "handicap" Clinton for being handed a Wellesley education or for becoming a corporate lawyer?  Obama resonates with people because his experience aligns better with that of average Americans and their hopes for the future.  For me personally, the guy who just finished paying off his student loans has much more in common with me than the guy who tosses $5M into the campaign kitty without batting an eye.  Hillary constantly reassures us that she will "wake up every morning" thinking about our problems, and these protests do little more than convince me that these concerns are not native residents in her thinking.  Obama does not suffer from an empathy deficit that must be actively exorcised and that's why he connects with people; not because of some pretty prose delivered trippingly off the tongue.

8. Hillary knows best how to win against the Republicans - this is the whopper of the bunch.  The former first lady has run an unsuccessful campaign to date.  With the advantages the started the race with, there is simply no reason to believe that her campaign leadership are up to snuff.  You don't run out of money and give up the majority of pledged delegates to a virtual unknown when you start out as the default nominee and supposedly magnificent establishment bona fides.  This against a candidate who -- let's be honest -- isn't even really attacking her in any manner resembling what will happen after the convention.  I hear a lot of grousing from Clinton supporters regarding media coverage and the supposedly exalted status of Obama in the press.  How is that not a valid metric of success?  If the Clinton campaign cannot redirect the narrative of the news media to suit the interests of its candidate -- apart from insisting that reporters who make reprehensible statements be fired -- than what good is it doing her and how will it help her to succeed in the general election, which will doubtless be covered by the same "biased" (notice how the hated Republican mantra has found its way out of losing Republican politics and into losing Dem politics) MSM?  Overall this points to poor and failed execution on the part of her staff -- that might hold the field in Senate races against ho-hum candidates in a cherry-picked Democratic-leaning state, but it's no sure bet to win the White House.

So what should happen?  The Clinton camp should acknowledge that it would be a drag on any ticket.  Obama should bolster his position with a diplomatic technocrat to narrow his vulnerability to attack based on experience.  Richardson seems to be a good fit in that regard, IMO, but I don't know if that would poll substantially better than Obama / Clinton.


10 Comments

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1. Obama and some of his camp followers have done a good job of portraying him as some kind of political outsider who will bring a "fresh view" to DC politics. In fact, a look at the Obama resume shows that both husband and wife are/were skillful inside operators in Illinois politics, using their positions to advance their own power and influence through their associations with lobbyists and businessmen. (hmm, is that a meme?)

2. The deal killer should be that Obama is patently insincere in his healthcare proposal. It has been thoroughly discredited by Paul Krugman and M.I.T. healthcare economist Jonathan Gruber. I don't believe that Obama is stupid, and therefore it seems obvious that he knows his proposal is DOA politically. It is not a serious solution to a serious problem, because resolving the healthcare crisis (and it is a crisis) is not a frontburner issue for him.

3. The "young and the lefist" crowd that is so loudly ballyhooed as the significant political offering that Obama brings to the table are legends in their own minds but are not that significant in the graph of the total political mix. At least 50% of these individuals will not show up at the polls on election day, even if Obama is the candidate. Attending rallies is fun, fixing America is work.

I don't find persuasive the argument that the will of the nation should bend knee to the selfish and immature. As a middle-aged man active in his community -- providing help for the soup kitchen, food bank, and many similar local ministries -- I can tell you that these activities are largely the province of my age group. The "young and the leftist" are conspicuously absent when there is work to be done. (In community service, their age bracket is far more heavily represented by the young and Evangelical Baptist.)

4. I am not a big admirer of Clinton but I believe she is a tough and tough-minded individual in the mold of Margaret Thatcher, Angela Merkel or Gold Meir. I have problems with her positions on issues but I have confidence that, like her husband before her, she would be a President in control of herself and her office. She can run the country.

I do not have any such confidence in Barack Obama, who seems to me ultimately a man in love with the sound of his own voice. A politician who believes his own press releases should be distrusted. I am absolutely indifferent to "inspirational" speeches. Deeds inspire me. And, aside from his insider politics in Springfield, which demonstrate that he is every bit as concerned with "numero uno" as nearly every other legislator, he doesn't have the resume.

Thanks.

mp

Krugman's NYTimes article is fairly late in the game and clipped to stand as a an encyclopedic rejection of Obama's proposed healthcare policies. Looks good as a stump for Hillary Clinton, sure, but even with an M. I. T. economist in the works cited he's spare with facts we can analyze for ourselves. But that kind of condescension is apropos for a political hack moonlighting as an academic, I suppose. You should try Robin Morgan if you're into the pro-Clinton literature. She too has no problem compromising her own claims to intellectual integrity by painting Clinton as a standard-bearer (in Morgan's case, for feminist politics).

Also, be careful picking on entire generations. As a 23 year-old man, I have only the crises administrations elected by older generations have handed down. However, condescending as you do, it's easy to see how you've come to side with the bully pulpit candidate.

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I am not a big admirer of Clinton but I believe she is a tough and tough-minded individual in the mold of Margaret Thatcher, Angela Merkel or Gold Meir.

Ok, now I'm really afraid of her. Couldn't you think of any progressive women?

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Obama resonates with people because his experience aligns better with that of average Americans and their hopes for the future.
Except that Obama doesn't resonates with average Americans, he mostly resonates with affluent Americans.Why don't you base your analysis on facts instead of hope?

How is saying Obama doesn't resonate with average Americans a fact? How could you possibly prove that?

Being born affluent and becoming affluent through determination, education and maybe some connections (who doesn't take advantage of every connection they have?) are not the same.

However, I'm not saying Clinton hasn't been determined or put in a lot of effort to get to where she is today. But I think it is irrefutable that she was born with an advantage.

Michael

Some responses (an by the way, I like the reasonable tone of your comments).

1. Yes, the Obamas are politicians. That's not really surprising and it would be a little silly if they weren't, seeing as he's running for president and all. It also does not discredit Obama's claim that he is not a Washington hack.
2. Just because Krugman disagrees does not make Obama insincere. There are good economists who support the Obama proposal too. However, the real point of the Obama position is recognition that a mandate will not get through congress and will be painted as nanny state-ism by the Republicans. One of the main reasons Hillarycare failed last time was because she was unwilling to compromise and demonised anyone who disagreed with an element of her plan. That approach is a recipe for disaster for a President trying to get real legislation passed.
3. If the young and engaged are so unreliable, how do you explain Obama's huge caucus victories? It is easier to vote in the GE than caucus on a cold Main night. Perhaps the reason they've not come out before is that the democratic political establishment has never bothered to talk to them.
4. You are probably right to say she would govern well but she ain't no Merkel or Thatcher, each of whom rose from relative obscurity on their own merits. Granted she's tough, but is that really all you want? Ask yourself, would Hillary really have won office in the Senate had she not been First Lady? No. She's there because Bill pressured the party establishment. Sure she's been a good senator (though she has only sponsored 5 substantive bills) but it is a bit much to suggest she is self-made in the way that Thatcher was or that she has fought her way to the top.
5. Read his books, review his voting record and the policies laid out in minute detail on the website. His speeches are designed to be inspiring but that does not mean that the conviction and the policy detail isn't there. You don't need to drink the Obama kool aid but do some reading. He really is different.

Michael Powe:

With all due respect, you might want to rethink the line about the "young and leftist" crowd.

I am deducing that your age probably makes you a baby boomer and I'm guessing your activism started in your 20s. Imagine if you heard your parents telling you not to bother protesting the war because no one listens to 20 year olds.

You have to admit, Obama does bring out the vote.

The boomer generation tends to think itself as the epicenter of everything (and actually, the Clintons are exhibit #1 on that list). There are others of us in the country. As UChicagoMatt points out, many of the ills we deal with today are a result of the boomers' (now middle aged) decisions. This same crowd pushed the ball in some direction, but it wasn't always forward.

It is ironic that the boomer, so inspired by candidate JFK in the 1960 election, tend to miss how candidate Obama might inspire youth in the 2008 election. In this regard, comparing Obama to JFK is quite accurate.

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The boomer generation tends to think itself as the epicenter of everything (and actually, the Clintons are exhibit #1 on that list). There are others of us in the country. As UChicagoMatt points out, many of the ills we deal with today are a result of the boomers' (now middle aged) decisions. This same crowd pushed the ball in some direction, but it wasn't always forward.
With uniters like Obama, why would we need dividers? Were you inspired by Obama to get such clear thinking?

The poverty of Hillary's campaign is made obvious by the poverty of her argument against Obam's candidacy. By highlighting her alleged experience--8 years in the senate and some mistake-filled attempts (by her own description) at policy-making as first lady--for the past year, she has painted herself into a corner against McCain, whose experience dwarfs hers by such a margin that he could legitimately ask her for her support.

As for having her run as vice-president, this is about the only way an Obama candidacy could lose in November. It brings nothing to the ticket, and all the same negatives that would be there if she were at the top of the ticket. Why put a stumbling block before an Obama-leaning independent? Richardson, nelso, Bayh, would be good choices: a highly popular Democrat from a toss-up state.

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