The Independent Vote: Why Hopemongers split from Hillary
My first entry. We'll see how shredded it gets before I post more. :)
Remember 2004? A lot of Democrats said "if Bush wins, I'm moving to Canada." It was an idle threat (or if you were a Bush supporter, it was welcome news), but it was a nice way of registering our frustration at the country's inability to listen to reason and vote a non--idiot into office.
This year, the line I hear (and, I admit, I have said it a few times myself) is "If Hillary wins the Nomination, I'm voting McCain/ voting third-party/ staying home in November." Now, the vote-for-McCain threat is largely as idle a threat as self-exile, and the people who threaten it will in all reality not follow through in any substantial numbers. But the staying-home threat is another story.
It's well-established that a large part of Obama's support comes from the youth vote. Young voters are not Party faithful the way their parents are. Young voters don't know the Democratic Party the way 40+ year-olds do. As such, young voters are voting for Obama, not for the Democratic candidate.
Young voters are tired of the way government doesn't work, and they see Hillary as part of that government that doesn't work. Young voters are tired of divisive politics, and want an America where we can disagree without being disagreeable, and they see Hillary as part of that divisiveness. Is it fair? Maybe, maybe not. But I wouldn''t expect Obama's supporters to just slide on over to Hillary if she wins the nomination.
Discuss.
Remember 2004? A lot of Democrats said "if Bush wins, I'm moving to Canada." It was an idle threat (or if you were a Bush supporter, it was welcome news), but it was a nice way of registering our frustration at the country's inability to listen to reason and vote a non--idiot into office.
This year, the line I hear (and, I admit, I have said it a few times myself) is "If Hillary wins the Nomination, I'm voting McCain/ voting third-party/ staying home in November." Now, the vote-for-McCain threat is largely as idle a threat as self-exile, and the people who threaten it will in all reality not follow through in any substantial numbers. But the staying-home threat is another story.
It's well-established that a large part of Obama's support comes from the youth vote. Young voters are not Party faithful the way their parents are. Young voters don't know the Democratic Party the way 40+ year-olds do. As such, young voters are voting for Obama, not for the Democratic candidate.
Young voters are tired of the way government doesn't work, and they see Hillary as part of that government that doesn't work. Young voters are tired of divisive politics, and want an America where we can disagree without being disagreeable, and they see Hillary as part of that divisiveness. Is it fair? Maybe, maybe not. But I wouldn''t expect Obama's supporters to just slide on over to Hillary if she wins the nomination.
Discuss.
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Actually, I know someone who did move to Canada after the 2004 debacle, though he still votes Dem.
February 12, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Michigan, so it's an idle threat in my neighborhood. In Michigan, we think Canadian Bacon was a documentary. :)
February 12, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I moved to Mexico and recently voted for Obama in the Democrats Abroad online primary election. I think we abroaders get seven delegates.
February 12, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was one of those who wanted to move to Canada and held my nose while I voted for John Kerry. I find a second Clinton presidency as threatening as a McCain presidency and see little difference between the two. Call it female testosterone or whatever, Hillary has something to prove in exercising the military - both she and McCain are equally trigger happy. McCain has at least disagreed with his own party about the current torture policies and the environment. Finally, I have always thought that as with Bush so with a 2008-2012 presidential administration, if we had a stronger Congress and Senate we wouldn't have to worry about an executive that overly relies on war as a tool of foreign policy. Like I have heard from the youth, disgruntled republicans and progressive democrats - If Clinton wins the primary, I will stay home.
February 12, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will support her if she WINS the primary.. but if the super delegates don't follow the will of the American people or Mich. and Florida are counted without a re-vote with adequate time for both candidates to be on the ballot and campaign I will in fact lose any faith I had built up for the system and will stay home.
Not a threat at all,.. not a take my toys home statement. However I believe this is a country that is supposed to follow the will of the people.. right or wrong.
February 12, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
it is sad to read that people will "stay home" if Obama doesn't get the nomination. I'm a Hillary supporter who realizes that Obama's pretty much got it sewn up, and I am certainly not going to stay home.
I will support the nominee of my party, even though he wasn't my first choice (actually, Joe Biden was.) and I do it not only out of party loyalty, but also because we CANNOT AFFORD to have any more Supreme Court justices named by Republicans.
I know Obama has said he's gonna bring the boys home from Iraq. he may find that a bit harder in the doing than he makes it sound in the speechifying. but one thing he can surely do is appoint centrist judges who still have some respect for the Constitution, and who will protect rather than chip away at our rights.
February 12, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am torn.
The Supreme Court argument is the most convincing thing that might make me sway to HRC.
What really makes me wince is the understanding of what is to come should the DNC choose Hillary. I made the mistake of reading HRC comments on ABC. And people think it gets rough here... it is truly sad in the rest of these internets.
Not sure it matters - HRC will activate a lot of angry Republicans. I know it is not her fault, but I think WJC is the only President who does what damn near every other President has done (cheated) and been impeached for it. Think that might not come to play in the GE? That is the only thing that will get McCain elected. Many of my R friends hate McCain, but hate Hillary more. So even if every D is principled enough not to "hate hillary", there are plenty of R's to replace them.
The only way that could be offset is if young people came out in droves for HRC. I hear crickets on that one.
My consolation in McCain is that he is a one-termer, and chances are we could be facing 8 years of HRC. And whether she does one or two terms, it will be a R replacing her, and one can only sense the animosity coming in that scenario.
February 12, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is important to notice who "claims" they will vote for HRC should McCain win the nomination.
Talk about wolves in sheep clothing. That is like taking the scorpion across the river.
February 13, 2008 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice first post, no shredding necessary.
Your perspective made me wonder if I am in a niche catergory or part of a larger group. I am lifelong Dem, both progressive and independent minded, female & 40. and looking for another country (so to speak) at the thought of Mac as Pres. Mac=Draft and I have a son!
But I won't vote in another Clinton vs. GOP circus. There seems to be this idea that all was well during the Clinton days. I don't remember it that way.
It is harsh, and maybe unfair as you said. As well it is not out of anger, but good reason that my vote could never go her way.
February 13, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm actually one who supports mandatory service for all young people. I would want it to include Peace Corps, Foreign Service, or other non-military services, because I don't think military service is something everyone can manage. I think Obama's plan for that is actually a pretty good one--give to the youth and expect a year or two of service in exchange.
Just tell your son that it's easier to get alcohol in college than in the Army, and he'll make the safe choice;)
February 13, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink