The state of the race
I’m an Obama supporter, but I am increasingly frustrated by the countless Clinton post-mortems that are being published. The race isn’t over until everyone votes or one of the two remaining candidates drops out. Clinton could still win, although it is unlikely.
How unlikely is it? All one need do is crunch the numbers to see what an uphill battle she has.
MSNBC currently gives Obama 1,192 pledged delegates and Clinton 1,036 pledged delegates. That leaves 1,025 pledged delegates still up for grabs.
If Obama were to win exactly 43% of all the remaining pledged delegates (that is, if Clinton were to win 57%) then the final tally would be 1,633 pledged delegates for Obama and 1,620 for Clinton. Getting 43% of the remaining pledged delegates is the worst Obama can perform and still maintain a slight edge. If they were to split all the remaining pledged delegates 50/50 then Obama’s margin of victory would be 159: Obama 1705, Clinton 1549.
In other words, the only way Clinton can overtake Obama in the pledged delegate count is if she wins at least 58% of all the remaining delegates.
Now, that’s not impossible. Unlikely, sure. But not unimaginable.
One concern with the way the press is stomping on Clinton is that were she to win Ohio and Texas, even by a narrow margin, that could well be spun as a major victory. But if you just do the math you realize that anything other than blow-out wins by Clinton is the same as defeat.
A little less gleeful Hillary-bashing and a little more factual reporting from the media would be nice.
She is going to loose Texas.
http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
It is all over except the crying. Good night Irene, cancel Christmas. Hillary is not coming back. She is in Hucabee teritory now. When she wins she does it by the slimest of margins and when he wins he trounces her.
February 27, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
If we're to trust your math (and I'm inclined to, even though you got 1705-1549=159…), then another way of looking at next Tuesday is thus: if she gets more than 58% of the delegates, she's made her uphill climb a little less uphill. If she gets less than 57% of the delegates, her uphill climb becomes steeper. So, even if she wins 55% of the delegates, which would no doubt be trumpeted as a great win by her camp, she'll have to win an even greater percentage (than previously) of the remaining delegates.
February 27, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
It should have said 156, not 159. That's not evidence of bad math skills, but bad typing!
Yes, I think you're right. My larger point was simply to point out how difficult her task, but to do so in a precise manner--ie, this is what she needs to do to pull out a win.
February 27, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a confirmed, long-time supporter of both Clintons. I actually think of myself more as a "Clintonocrat", than as a Democrat. I think she would make a better President than Sen. Qbama or anyone else in the race. I think we're making a potentially serious (if perhaps understandable) mistake if we don't put her (AND her husband) in the White House.
That said, if she doesn't win significantly in both Texas and Ohio, it's over. I'll be sorry about it, but I'll go on, and so will the country. I've said in here previously she needs average +10 or better. Don't out-and-out hold me to that precise number, but the essential point is, she needs 2 clear, decisive wins - I'll know them when I see them. Close goes to Obama.
February 27, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know everyone's waiting to roll on the ground and piss themselves madly when the great man wins, but in some circles it's considered polite to wait until a contest is actually won before celebrating. Where in other circles it's considered good sense. Okay, that's all I had to say, back on your bellies.
February 27, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
On the other hand, it's considered polite to drop out once the contest is lost.
Your characterization of Obama's supporters aside, the mathematical reality does not favor Clinton.
February 27, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perception is everything. If she wins TX and OH by any margin and doesn't lose the delegate race in those states by a real significant number the media will spin it as a great comeback for the simple reason that it boosts the cablenets ratings and fixes more eyeballs on the political coverage in the major dailies. This race has been the best thing to happen to the media since the Iraq invasion in 2003 they won't give it up easily.
February 28, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink