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Your Debate Predictions - Which HRC Will Show Up?
With only two one-on-one debates to guide us on what to expect in the next (and final?) Democratic primary debate, I'm really looking forward to Tuesday night's event in Ohio to see what approach the candidates will take. In California and Texas HRC performed characteristically well on the issues and maintained a dignified presence in the face of very bad news on the campaign trail. But was her denouement at the Texas debate a scripted evocation for sympathy/empathy or more of momentary glimpse at the kinder, gentler HRC we've heard lives beneath the measured and premeditated politician's approach to the world?
I believe Obama has done equally well in the last two debates and that neither candidate has scored a blow-out or game-changing win in the last 2 events. So what can we expect on Tuesday night, at what might well be the final debate between Democratic candidates in the 2008 election?
HRC's tone on Saturday, in decrying O's mailing materials and invoking the dreaded Rove to characterize O's campaign was a revelation, the work of a hard-hitting, take no prisoners campaigner whom we hadn't seen before, and all the more shocking in light of HRC's better-than-usual personal closing argument in Thursday night's debate. And let's not forget that challenge to O, to meet in Ohio and debate campaign tactics.
Some have taken to comparing HRC to Jekyll and Hyde. So who's going to show up in tonight's debate? And how will Obama respond? Is it possible her campaign has a new tact based on O's past that hasn't come to light before now? And is she serious that she wants to debate O on their respective campaign tactics?
I really don't know, so I'd love to hear the opinions of the TPM readers and bloggers. :-)
I believe Obama has done equally well in the last two debates and that neither candidate has scored a blow-out or game-changing win in the last 2 events. So what can we expect on Tuesday night, at what might well be the final debate between Democratic candidates in the 2008 election?
HRC's tone on Saturday, in decrying O's mailing materials and invoking the dreaded Rove to characterize O's campaign was a revelation, the work of a hard-hitting, take no prisoners campaigner whom we hadn't seen before, and all the more shocking in light of HRC's better-than-usual personal closing argument in Thursday night's debate. And let's not forget that challenge to O, to meet in Ohio and debate campaign tactics.
Some have taken to comparing HRC to Jekyll and Hyde. So who's going to show up in tonight's debate? And how will Obama respond? Is it possible her campaign has a new tact based on O's past that hasn't come to light before now? And is she serious that she wants to debate O on their respective campaign tactics?
I really don't know, so I'd love to hear the opinions of the TPM readers and bloggers. :-)
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I'm as curious about this as you are, especially with her taking a much more aggressive tone in the last few days. When she mentioned the upcoming debate in during her "Shame on you" speech this Saturday I thought it almost sounded like she was calling him out to a fight. "Meet me in Ohio." It's not exactly "3pm, after school", but when you couple it with her the tone of her delivery it's close.
The thing is, the crowd in Texas started to turn on her when she tried to go negative with the Xerox remark. This strategy will only go as far as the crowd will let it. If they boo her again, she'll have to relent. The plot thickens if she has to play nice because then everyone will be wondering where the teeth from her stump speech went.
I'd say she's in a bit of a pickle here. The moderators will no doubt put her on the spot about this stuff. It should be interesting.
February 26, 2008 5:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think she'll be all peaches and cream, and perhaps try a few gotcha tactics (smiilar to "Xerox", but probably more well written). If there was some real nasty dirt on Barack, I don't see how they wouldn't have already thrown it at him before Super Tuesday.
She's trying to get him to raise his voice and appear angry at her like Rick Lazio did in her 2000 Senate race. Barack will respond cool, calm and collected as always and it'll be another draw.
Signed, Sealed, Delivered.
February 26, 2008 5:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
My Wish is this: In Barack's opening remarks after thanking everyone and the good people of Ohio, he stops and says he'd like to make an announcement:
"John Edwards just called me a moment ago and said he is endorsing me for President."
HRC would have a meltdown, and would have a really tough time finishing the debate.
Game, Set, Match.
February 26, 2008 5:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, what happened to Edwards? It seemed like maybe we were going to see an endorsement, but the time when it would make a difference is quickly running out.
February 26, 2008 6:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Evil Genius!
February 26, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton: Ready to be Bipolar on Day One, has been claiming Edwards' endorsement even though he hasn't given it. Everywhere she goes, it's, "John Edwards and I've been talking about..."
February 26, 2008 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I've added her "John Edwards and I" BS line to my political drinking game.
February 26, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jekyll and Hyde? That's a fair comparison, but she's been looking more and more like Linda Blair in The Exorcist. I'm looking to the demon possessed Regan to show up rather than the happy pre-Ouija Board/Captain Howdy Reagan. Get out the holy water and bring a Rosary Senator Obama.
February 26, 2008 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
For her sake, let's hope that her aides can keep her from a full Brittany!!
If she shows up with a shaved head...
February 26, 2008 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Banana-colored jump suit, red necklace, box of kleenex, and 143 flag pins.
February 26, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I laughed hard at this.
February 26, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Her advisers will likely be arguing about this up until the last minute.
Given her zigging and zagging, she may not know either! (day 1 notwithstanding)
February 26, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's see...Kerry the "flip flopper" and Hillary is the "zig zagger". A dirty trick? I think so.
February 26, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
No matter how you feel about John Kerry, "I voted for the war before I voted against it" is a stament that will go down in American political history as one of the dumbest things ever said by a Presidential candidate. That this came to John Kerry being labeled a "flip-flopper" is really the result of the fact that the climate called for him to be anti-war and this robbed him of the strong footing that he needed on this issue and, ultimately, was an advantage that Kerry handed his political opponents through his record and his actions. As a side note, I think this is one reason that Clinton has decided not to admit that her vote on Iraq was a mistake. The trouble is that this is a strategy with a mind toward the general election and it hasn't been effective in terms of winning the primary.
As for zig-zagging, how can you deny that Clinton has been all over the place even just in the last week? Maybe it's just the shorthand (flip-flop, zig-zag), but this perspectives aren't simply being pulled out of thin air. Just like Kerry, her actions have contributed to this outcome.
When it comes to getting elected, everything you say and do will be analyzed. I can't believe that Clinton, with such an extensive public life, is unaware of this so I can only assume that she somehow ended up unprepared. Even so, everyone will be watching you and everything you say or do could have an impact.
That people are watching what she has been doing of late and recognized that she has been, to avoid the term zig-zag, jumping all over the place is no one's fault but her own.
February 26, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
'No matter how you feel about John Kerry, "I voted for the war before I voted against it" is a statement that will go down in American political history as one of the dumbest things ever said by a Presidential candidate.'
I agree, but it wasn't that he had changed his mind about his vote, it was the way he said it.
After all the vote gave Bush authorization to use military force, but Bush was saying that he would only use it as a last resort. If Kerry had framed it as taking Bush at his word and being deceived, it probably would have gone over much better. He could have used it to show that Bush could not be trusted; instead his statement became all about his "flip-flopping".
February 26, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. I take Kerry completely at his word on this. I think his position change was genuine, but that statement proved to be unbelievably exploitable for by the opposition.
Of course, the swift boat crap didn't help either.
February 26, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton: A lot of people are saying 'Give it Up, Hillary. Concede defeat. Drop out of the race and endorse Barack Obama. It will be better for the party. It will be better for the country as we move forward.' And you know what? Those people are right... I've chosen this moment to announce-
*The PA begins playing Elvis Presley's "Heartbreak Hotel"*
Jim Ross: Good G-d! That's... That's Bill Clinton's music!
*Bill Clinton emerges from stage right brandishing a steel chair which he uses to hit Barack Obama on the head*
Jim Ross: THAT WAS A COWARDLY ATTACK BY FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON! What's going to happen next?!?!
*The PA begins playing James Taylor's "Carolina In My Mind"*
Jim Ross: Good G-d! That's... That's John Edwards' music!
*John Edwards emerges from stage left brandishing a steel chair which he uses to hit Hillary Clinton on the head*
Jim Ross: It's an AMBUSH! WHAT WILL PRESENT CLINTON DO NEXT?!?!?!
*Bill and John stride toward each other menacingly, drop their steel chairs, and hug. Bill reaches down and raises John Edwards' hand in triumph! He rips his suit open to reveal a Four Horsemen t-shirt. Ric Flair enters the arena and joins them onstage. The crowd is aghast...*
February 26, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
F'in hilarious.
February 26, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, where's The King?
February 26, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I denounce and reject my decision to omit dialogue from Jerry "The King" Lawler in my hypothetical debate transcript earlier...
I should note, though, that Keith Olberman just made adapted the joke to say that he's surprised HRC didn't come out from the first commercial break and hit him with a chair. It has been a long, strange trip of a day!
February 26, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think her motive for getting angry on Saturday and saying, "meet me in Ohio" was to make it sound like a bigger event than it actually is.
Me vs. you. It sets up the false perception that there are two equally powerful forces meeting to decide, once and for all, who should be crowned the winner.
It kind of masks the reality that she's way way behind.
February 26, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the EXACT same dirty trick used by Republicans and the press on Gore. Which Gore will show up at the debate? Will it be the "sighing" Gore or the "wonkish Gore" or the "ruthlessly ambitious" Gore?
February 26, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
How is this a dirty trick? Last Thursday I saw Hillary Clinton talk about what an honor it was to share the stage with Barack Obama, about the higher purposes of the campaign in general. Two days later I see her practically frothing at the mouth, shedding shame all over Barack Obama for sending out mailers indicted her position on health care, something she herself did in Wisconsin. The difference being that Obama's mailers have been out for weeks whereas Clinton's were mailed just days before the election.
Then, yesterday, I saw Clinton dripping with sarcasm, once again implying that Obama's campaign is the stuff of soft-headed, idealistic whimsy, his supporters a flock of the spiritually misguided, waiting for him to open up the sky above.
This is not a trick at all, much less a dirty one. It is Clinton's inconsistent behavior that has given people reason to wonder which side of Hillary Clinton we will we later this evening.
I'm sorry, but Hillary Clinton is not about reproach. Criticism is not, in and off itself, a dirty trick.
PS - As I finished typing this I saw Jack Cafferty pose the exact same question. Is Cafferty also in the dirty trick business now?
PPS - Completely unrelated, Bill Richardson grew a beard! It looks sweet, very Jimmy Smits. Perhaps being Governor isn't so bad.
February 26, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
BevD
Why is it a dirty trick to point out Sen Clinton's behavior? Why do you attack the mesenger rather than defending her behavior? I know why. It is because that is all you have. Her behavior is indefensible so you have to attack the messenger.
February 26, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Her schizophrenia has been so pronounced of late I haven't the foggiest who'll show. My apologies to anyone suffering w/ this illness - but I really couldn't think of a better analogy.
I do however have a tidbit theory re her latest personal moment in TX. She knew she was making a commercial. The ad was up w/in a day. And when you study her gaze into the camera it's quite apparent.
Actually - whichever Hillary shows up we know it won't be the real one - it never is - we've yet to meet her.
February 26, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Dirty trick"? Care to clarify how pointing out HRC's varying campaign demeanor between last Thus and Sat is a trick? Seems to me the trick was by HRC in modulating so quickly. I'm genuinely curious whether she'll carry through with her hard-edged approach seen on Saturday.
February 26, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the EXACT same dirty trick used by Republicans and the press on Gore. Which Gore will show up at the debate? Will it be the "sighing" Gore or the "wonkish Gore" or the "ruthlessly ambitious" Gore?
There was a "ruthlessly ambitious" Gore?? I don't remember that one.
Anyway, for the debate I predict Hillary will use both approaches. She'll start out friendly and "honored to share the stage" or something along those lines. But she'll wait for something Obama says that she can claim was provocation, and launch into self-righteous attack mode.
February 26, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well you're obviously sitting at a keyboard, why don't you do a little research? Obama supporters are really playing dirty with this one.
February 26, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
BevD, it's not incumbent upon other people to substantiate your claims for you.
February 26, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama supporters are really playing dirty with this one."
How so?
February 26, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Dirty trick"? Care to clarify how pointing out HRC's varying campaign demeanor between last Thus and Sat is a trick? Seems to me the trick was by HRC in modulating so quickly.
I don't know if her quick change was a "trick" in any sense.
I think she was forced to do it because the "honored to share the stage" demeanor was interpreted by so many people as her having essentially given up.
Speaking of which, I wondered at the time where that meme got started, the idea that she was giving a goodbye speech at the end of that debate. Was it perhaps a meme planted by the Obama campaign? If so, it was extremely effective. It took the most positive sounding thing to come out of her campaign in quite a while and turned it into a negative, and without saying or implying anything about her that was actually negative. In fact it was a compliment, suggesting that she was being gracious in defeat and turning her focus to doing what was best for the party! A devastating compliment!
She had no choice after that but to go harshly negative, and she'll have to do the same in the next debate. But I'll stick to my prediction that she won't come out swinging, she'll wait until Obama says something she can claim was "beyond the pale". Obama will be ready for it, but who knows, it might work.
February 26, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good thinking! That would be my guess, too. The 'human moment' at the end of their last debate was a tactic that backfired. It made her more likable, but... someone turned it into a quasi-farewell speech. Certainly, we haven't seen any sign of that 'kinder, gentler' Hillary since then!
But she has to do SOMETHING to drastically change the course of the campaign, and I, too, suspect that it will be 'no more mister nice guy.' She'll start off pleasant, but find an excuse to strike out with everything she's got, in the hope that something will stick. Or, more importantly, in the hope that Barack Obama will forget his game plan and strike back. I think he's too smart to play her game, but you never know. She might just be able to anger him enough (at which point, she'll turn around and be nice again).
So far, I've been really impressed at how he's been able to stay on message. If he can continue that for this debate, it should be all over for her (and be a great indication of how the general election will go).
February 26, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
tpmgary:
Interesting! Though that really ratchets up the pressure for HRC to perform to or above high expectations.
rabbitsmorgasbord:
Just to clarify, I was inferring something in the realm of a magic trick (e.g., neat trick, eh?), not a stab-in-the-back trick, which is what I was questioning BevD about.
I’d submit that the whole valedictory meme was a collective observation based on projection. It’s not completely unreasonable to assume HRC is/was preparing for an endgame in March, so the pundits read into her performance what they wanted to see. Has the O camp made hay of it? Dunno…
Interesting comment on HRC’s ambush strategy for the debate. Makes sense, but hard to see O taking the bait.
February 26, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
So far, I've been really impressed at how he's been able to stay on message. If he can continue that for this debate, it should be all over for her (and be a great indication of how the general election will go).
Yeah, it's almost enough to make me appreciate Hillary and her fans. In two ways, in fact. First, the sharp contrast with Hillary's poor planning (making "ready on day one" more of a joke than anything) and difficulty in responding to setbacks has made Obama's ability to run a well-planned, tightly-focused campaign all the more impressive. By most standards she actually did have a good, credible campaign mapped out, a campaign that probably would have won in most scenarios. But she didn't have enough contingency planning, and she had some big blind spots, and we discovered that she didn't have the ability to be nimble in adjusting her plan in response to the facts on the ground. She ran a good campaign, but in contrast, Obama ran a great campaign, and all of the things Hillary got wrong were things Obama got right about managing a large, complex campaign.
And second, the more desperate the attacks have become, the more impressed I've been with Obama's ability to respond to and deflect the attacks, and at the same time to stay on message. He's not making Kerry's mistake of staying on message by ignoring the attacks.
I hope the Ohio/Texas results are a knockout punch that lets the Obama vs. McCain matchup begin in earnest.
February 26, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
rabbitsmorgasbord said:
"By most standards she actually did have a good, credible campaign mapped out, a campaign that probably would have won in most scenarios. But she didn't have enough contingency planning, and she had some big blind spots, and we discovered that she didn't have the ability to be nimble in adjusting her plan in response to the facts on the ground. She ran a good campaign, but in contrast, Obama ran a great campaign, and all of the things Hillary got wrong were things Obama got right about managing a large, complex campaign."
I totally agree. Now lets take those facts and insert them into a hypothetical, say running a large complex country or commander in cheif of the armed forces. It would seem to me that if another administration had been "nimble adjusting the plan" we might not be in the deep squidshit we find ourselves in now.
Ready from day one? Hmmmmm....
February 26, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
My take on the debate tonight. Hillary will get the first question. She will not answer the question she is asked but goes on a detailed policy rant using up a tremendous amount of time. Obama responds with his own take on it. Then hillary launches into an attack on that stance with another seemingly 15min venom.
How she can say the "media" is against her when they seemingly give her as much time as she wants and then some in the debates is beyond me.
My guess is, it will start out all nice, but believe me there will be a screaming of "slum lord" or some other nonsense before we're through. Maybe even a thinly veiled muslim smear. It could happen. Look how well the Lyndon Johnson thing worked. If you can't peg him into the race hole, maybe the muslim fear tactic might take hold.
Heck the fear tactic worked in NH. Keith Olbermann called her on it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BB4Vvgn_4k
February 26, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
We get more of the same... HRC will appear nice and friendly, make some snarky remarks like the Xerox comment, and then hit the trail toworrow being as nasty as usual. This has been the pattern all along. Of course, if she gets nasty tonight I'll be proven wrong, but at least there'd be something new to watch at the debate for a CHANGE.
February 26, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink