Evidently, according to the most recent Op-Ed by David Brooks of the NYT, it's less than twenty percent. He says that with Florida and Michigan off the table (and they ARE off the table) and her campaign hemorrhaging superdelegates, Hillary is left with a 5 percent chance of winning. So, if you have less than 1 in 5 chance of winning the presidency, would you do it?

The thing is, even though Hillary has the chance to win, Obama is still most likely our nominee. This goes beyond wonky speculation. All snide commentary and contrary links from Desidero and Billy Glad notwithstanding, all supremely confident posts by Amber or Merlot about why Hillary can't win aside, in all probability, Obama is going to be pulling the line for us. He has the charisma, he has the self-penned historical speeches on race, he has the thoughtful Iraq strategy, he has the post-partisan message of a constructive tomorrow, he has galvanized a generation of self-obsessed youth to strive towards something bigger, and he has the pledged delegates, the most won states, the popular vote, and growing superdelegate support. I know you're a Hillary supporter and want her to stay in, but you have to admit the odds do favor him, if ever so slightly, right? What worries me about her new tactics is that they will amount to little more than this unremitting immaturity for the next three months. I don't expect to see dynamic arguments on NAFTA so much as I do more "Judas" barbs. Stumping will continue, but it will be glazed over in the press for the latest ill-advised slip of tongue as patience begins to buckle on both sides. I think Obama, at one point forever transcending this mudwrestling match, now stands to sucked into this conflict, as we're seeing the latest, utterly inane and reaching "McCarthy" comment and the weekly blizzard of accusatory memos by Plouffe Daddy. In a way, I can't blame him. I mean, love Hillary or love to hate Hillary, if you had to deal with the way she campaigns for an extended period of time, you know you'd eventually let your worst instincts get the better of you. Still, though, it hurts his image. Hillary can take the hits, because not only does she thrive in this kind of toxic environment, but she has less to lose. In fact, she's already at the bottom. She just needs to get Obama to an worse point than where she is now. However, the uglier Obama starts the look, the worse off he is as the nominee--and it's something to consider given the odds.

I respect you, destor. I think you're one of the best Clinton supporters on this site. You're thoughtful, considerate, and best of all, not disgustingly snide. I'm not demanding for her to drop out, but I do think she should take pause and think about if what she's doing will *really* get her the nomination or if it will just hurt everyone...her own career, the party, Obama, the voters, and our chances against McCain.

My father works on Broadway. Which, potentially offensive intimation notwithstanding, is naturally kind of a barrack for Hillary stalwarts. Well, one aforementioned stalwart works in my father's office. He has been an advocate of Hillary throughout her political career...contributing oodles of money to both of her senate bids as well as her presidential campaign. He has defended her vociferously since she began running...through all the flaps and criticism, he stuck proudly by his girl. He weathered earlier press firestorms and violently asserted the media bias argument. He wasn't like most, dare I say the rest, of us whose enthusiasm lives for and dies at Denver. He was a true fan, a season ticket holder, his giant foam #1 hand proudly enveloping the better part of his arm. He didn't just like Hillary as President, he was enamored with the whole Hillary institution. He was a genuine Clinton loyalist who kept tabs on his girl even during the dry, tumbleweed-lolloping banality of the senate season. I'm running away with the verbal imagery here, but don't be fooled by the hyperbole. He really liked her.

But this man, this Stan, this Hillaryvangeical, told my father yesterday that he's renounced her. His reasons had nothing to do, at least on the surface on things, with the dread of inevitability. He's far too loyal to go Judas. It wasn't her chances, he said, it was her tactics. The kitchen sink of Ohio was nasty, and though he winced, he had initially stuck by her. However, as he has seen this contest drag into a fresh hell of jejune sniping and unremitting finger-pointing, of wild-eyed Geraldine Ferraros riding ass-backwards into battle helmeted with colanders and wielding wooden spoons for swords, of Mark Penn, of imaginary thresholds, of Bosnia and casual misstatements...he says he's just grown so nauseated with Hillary's strategy that he's switching to Obama. Which is, if you think about it, kind of big. Imagine Lalo angrily saying, "You know what? These tactics make me sick! I'm done with Hillary forever. Let's go Obama!" Granted, I'd probably be too distracted by all the flying pigs to probably appreciate the full impact of this conversion, but evidently, the nature of this guy's defection bears similar significance. This is only one man, and hardly an indication of any larger loss on her part, but if she's potentially doing this to more of her staunch supporters, don't you think that says something?

I don't know. Stay in if she must, but I think it suggests a certain amount of pathos.

I thought that certain states don't matter anyway?

And what if some of those states run caucuses? Do they still count?