Get Thee to Pennsylvania (and Indiana)
You heard her finally say it: it's all the way now. There's no relenting.
She believes she's on a roll since she won the last two matches in Ohio and Texas (popular vote, anyway). And she sees nothing ahead but blue skies in a few key states.
Next up, she figures, a blast in Pennsylvania on 4/22. Then, a couple of weeks later on 5/6, well, OK, she might lose NC but she's feeling pretty damn sure she can take Indiana that same day. So, she'll crow, that's two out of three. With Texas and Ohio, she'll add, that's four out of five! Only one week later (she's getting excited now) she'll wham him in West Virginia on 5/13 and then, with a bare seven days for that last key state, she'll cram it down the superdelegates throats with 5/20 in Kentucky. That will make her "roll" look like a path to coronation...
That's her momentum argument - and then she'll bully her way through the rest of it.
It's a game plan - and not a bad one, folks, considering how the press will help her make such hay out of it - but this game plan can be busted.. Her big advantage in these (and all) states is huge name recognition. The very opposite is Obama's disadvantage. Once he makes himself known in a state, he does very well. But he needs that time and that effort. And the only stretch of time he actually has left before those primaries start crashing in on us in rapid succession is these next few weeks before Pennsylvania and Indiana. If she lost those two, her snowball gets seriously smashed before it even gets going.
So get thee to Pennsylvania or get thee to Indiana as soon as possible, whenever possible! I volunteered for Obama's campaign a week ago and plan to do so again next weekend, though I live relatively close to one of the borders (my advantage). But if you can pitch in some way, it's going to matter.
Dana, I assume it is an innocent oversight on your part, but this goes to something that has had my teeth grinding all week. Watching CNN to scream profanities at my television for therapeutic reasons, I have heard reporters following the Clinton campaign repeatedly quote their line that one reason she is staying in is because she has won three of the last four contests, and nobody calls them on this. Not Jessica, not Wolf, not Anderson. Excuse me but didn't Obama win quite handily in Wyoming and Mississippi a week after Texas, Ohio, Rhode Isand and Vermont? Were'nt those four states contested on the same day? And can we please get that ignorant cross-hatching off the state of Texas on John King's magic map now that Obama is most certainly the winner there? Have I accidently stepped into some alternate Clinton universe or has she really only won two of the last six contests? I agree with you though that Obama needs to campaign hard in Indiana, I think it is doable. This place is crawling with Clintons now and you can't go anywhere in this state without tripping over one, even if they are telling us to shut-up and mind our own business, including their own supporters. Happy hunting on the trail.
March 30, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
drpangloss, you sillybilly, you seem to have forgotten that small states, like Wyoming, and states with large black populations, like Mississippi, don't count.
March 30, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is what happens when you replce journalists with stenographers.
Stenographers have the sense to understand their specific job duties. Those duties do not include fact-checking. Only faithful, undistorted repetition.
March 31, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know exactly what you're saying and couldn't agree more. But as you can imagine, the entire primary campaign is being "presented" to us by the media. In a way, all of our news is part of a grand show that the media writers and producers totally control. Furthermore, there's lots of interest in this horserace of a primary and media writers must fill space every single day.
Clinton and Obama both know the power of the media and how it presents each of their campaigns. And if Clinton words her message in a provocative way - Two out of Three States! a Big States Winner! - she'll give those writers the lead story they're looking for and the rest of us will sit around with our papers and our coffee and get pissed (hah)! What can one do?
We just have to leave the Obama and Clinton experts to wrestling with the media over what happens in these daily "presentations" and get down in the dirt with the campaigns where the voters really are.
March 30, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am aghast. Since he was acclaimed the second coming of Jesus post his Philly speech to whitewash Rev. Wright I would have thought the whole world knew of Mr. Obama. If he has gotten all his monetary support online and in nickels and dimes old ladies and the poor have given him...surely name recognition isn't the problem
March 30, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd agree that at this point it's not so much about the names and that the main image PA folks have of Obama is probably that from his speech and Rev. Wright and doubtless not much else. But until very recently, he hasn't been to any of their towns, where lots of local press and radio coverage is the KEY to folks getting to know him and see/hear him in the flesh.
The bus tour seems like a good idea...sort-of reminds me of McCain's jaunt through New Hampshire, which is how lots of folks up there got to know him back in 2000.
Now, if only Obama could bowl!....
March 30, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Folks in PA, IN, WV, KY don't have TV"s or the internet or are you suggesting they aren't intelligent enough to grasp things unless Obama is in front of them.
March 30, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you suggesting that in this day and age of television and internet surfing that there's no reason for anyone to campaign directly in a state anymore? Just touch down in Maryland or Orlando, maybe, and let the national press (damn the locals) do the rest?
Now your argument's going weird. Even Hillary wouldn't buy that one!
March 30, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Louisville,
It is about the ground campaign, you lose that, you lose the election. Something to keep in mind for Nov. in Ohio.
March 30, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't arguing that there shouldn't be a ground campaign. Of course, there should. But to say at this point..after well over a year of constant campaigning that anyone anywhere doesn't know who Obama IS..is....silly.
March 30, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
10% of voters still think he's a muslim.
I've heard many express "reservations" because "we don't know who this Obama guy is". I'd say 20-30% don't feel like they know enough.
And if you let mainstream media shape your image, you lose.
And compared to Clinton, who'd been in the spotlight for more than 15 years, you can't expect him to be as recognized.
Now, given that Clinton started with the home field advantage, with all the machinery and relations in place, but he's currently ahead by a large margin, I'd have to say he's doing pretty well. That's why he is the best to win in Nov. He's passed Clinton against all odds, and still making progress.
March 31, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
That 10% would include me.
March 31, 2008 12:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would say that was trollish, if it wasn't sickly amusing.
March 31, 2008 1:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, there's a special category we have for people that insist on holding on to fantasies in spite of all evidence of the contrary.
I'm happy to not be voting the same as you.
March 31, 2008 1:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Louisville1975,
Ignorance is not bliss. Your desire to make a falsehood fit will not change the truth. It just keeps you grounded in a primitive mentality.
March 31, 2008 1:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't the truth what we make it?
March 31, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ahh, Dr Pangloss,
Just wanted to say I love the name, I Love Candide. One of my favorites.
As for the comments, just remember, only the states that vote for hillary actually count, so really she has won 14 out of 14, she is undefeated in important states.
March 31, 2008 1:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
RE, your starting to catch on.....see its not that hard....
March 31, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink