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It is now harder for Hillary to Win. The math is the real story.
Despite all the media spin favoring Hillary coming out of her wins last
night, here's some math to take in. When I say delegates from here on
out, I'm talking about Pledged Delegates.
Before March 4th, 1202-1042 (all news outlets are different), 931 pledged delegates left to be decided
Mar 4: Ohio 141, Rhode Island 21, Texas 193, Vermont 15
Mar 8: Wyoming 12
Mar 11: Mississippi 33
Apr 22: Pennsylvania 151
May 3: Guam 3
May 6: Indiana 66, North Carolina 91
May 13: West Virginia 26
May 20: Kentucky 47, Oregon 48
Jun 3: Montana 15, South Dakota 14
Jun 7: Puerto Rico 55
She needed to win at least 546-361 of the remaining delegates to get a 1 delegate lead.
She needed 58.65% of the delegates left. That's a win on average of 58.65% of the delegates in each remaining contest.
Now that March 4th has passed, there's 561 delegates left.
I don't know what the delegate count will be at the end, but I'll be generous and say she picked up 20 more than he did on the 4th. If that lead of 160 goes down to 140, she needs to win the rest of the delegates by 351-210 to tie Obama. That means 62.57% of the delegates left are needed by her, and she needs to win on average 62.57% of the delegates in each remaining contests.
Chances are, he will win pretty good in Mississippi and Wyoming. I expect, conservatively, combined 5 delegates more than Hillary (25-20). That would put her percentage of needed delegates up to 64.15% with 516 delegates left to go, and 145 delegate lead for Obama.
Keep in mind these numbers are good if Hillary nets 20 more delegates out of March 4th than Obama and Obama nets 5 delegates more than Hillary out of Mississippi and Wyoming in the next 6 days.
Before March 4th, 1202-1042 (all news outlets are different), 931 pledged delegates left to be decided
Mar 4: Ohio 141, Rhode Island 21, Texas 193, Vermont 15
Mar 8: Wyoming 12
Mar 11: Mississippi 33
Apr 22: Pennsylvania 151
May 3: Guam 3
May 6: Indiana 66, North Carolina 91
May 13: West Virginia 26
May 20: Kentucky 47, Oregon 48
Jun 3: Montana 15, South Dakota 14
Jun 7: Puerto Rico 55
She needed to win at least 546-361 of the remaining delegates to get a 1 delegate lead.
She needed 58.65% of the delegates left. That's a win on average of 58.65% of the delegates in each remaining contest.
Now that March 4th has passed, there's 561 delegates left.
I don't know what the delegate count will be at the end, but I'll be generous and say she picked up 20 more than he did on the 4th. If that lead of 160 goes down to 140, she needs to win the rest of the delegates by 351-210 to tie Obama. That means 62.57% of the delegates left are needed by her, and she needs to win on average 62.57% of the delegates in each remaining contests.
Chances are, he will win pretty good in Mississippi and Wyoming. I expect, conservatively, combined 5 delegates more than Hillary (25-20). That would put her percentage of needed delegates up to 64.15% with 516 delegates left to go, and 145 delegate lead for Obama.
Keep in mind these numbers are good if Hillary nets 20 more delegates out of March 4th than Obama and Obama nets 5 delegates more than Hillary out of Mississippi and Wyoming in the next 6 days.
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