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Obama's Opportunity


The Clinton campaign has made an issue of open primaries and caucuses that allowed Republicans and Independents to support Obama. They seemed to be floating the idea that this somehow tainted the process even though it seems that Obama's supporters were doing it because they would felt he was the best candidate and would continue to support Obama in November.

I seem to recall that everyone gets to vote in November, not just Democrats, so I just dismissed this as the usually dopey arguments that get tossed around during campaigns. However, with Rush urging Republicans to crossover and support Clinton we have a much different situation. We have Republicans (although unlikely to be in large enough numbers to significantly impact the nomination process do to how delegate math works) crossing over to support Clinton who have no intention of supporting her in November.

Rush would be having nightmares if he thought Clinton could win the nomination and defeat McCain. In light of Rush's low opinion of McCain I have come to the conclusion that Rush doesn't think Clinton has a snowball's chance in hell of getting the nomination unless Obama self destructs. The delegate math is pretty much all in Obama's favor so the Clinton campaign is just waiting for Obama to get eaten by a bear or have a plane fall on him thus opening her way to the nomination.

Rush, who clearly has a poor opinion of Clinton, is probably hoping that Clinton goes negative on Obama in her relentless pursuit of the nomination thus helping McCain by weakening Obama. Certainly it will use up some of that cash that Republicans seem to be so short on this year. Some hard feelings and negative fallout from the the nomination process continuing is unavoidable; however, it may backfire.

Obama has shown himself to be fairly adept at framing issues and this is going to be a real strength in the coming weeks with a more leisurely pace in terms of primaries and caucuses. I would be surprised if Obama doesn't deftly handle this like he has the other challenges and obstacles he has had to overcome.

If Obama were a run of the mill candidate and if it were politics-as-usual then I think we would have every reason to be concerned. However, if Obama is the candidate I hope he is then this is his opportunity to show us. Clinton has shown herself to be comfortable with politics as they are; Obama must now show us how politics should be.

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Oh no, Sluggo!!!!

It was great when Republicans were crossing over to support Obama!!!

But now they're crossing over to vote for Hillary!!! That's not fair!!! Dirty tricks!!! Scheming, calculating!!!

Actually I think the crossover sucks no matter who it's for.

Personally I don't have a problem with people being able to support any candidate as long as they will continue to support in the general election. I could care less if they are Republican, Democrat or Independent.

The numbers I saw for Texas was 15% of the voters in the Democratic primary were Republican based on exit polls. Approximately 50% supported Clinton which is a big change from only 20% of Republican voters supporting Clinton in previous primaries like Wisconsin.

It doesn't seem unreasonable that somewhere in the neighborhood of 4% of the popular vote in the Texas Democratic primary will vote McCain in November after voting Clinton in the primary. This would help explain the 8% swing from primary to caucus in Texas.

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sam storm

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